LONDON: Asian states led by China and India are surging ahead with military spending as they recover strongly from the global slowdown, while Europe and the US feel the pinch, a study said Wednesday.
The US military remains “under severe strain” due to ongoing Iraq operations and its 30,000-strong surge in Afghanistan, said the respected annual “Military Balance” report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Britain, the United States’ main ally in both Iraq and Afghanistan, faces a particular challenge as it grapples to pay for its military and draw down a massive budget deficit.
“In light of severe funding constraints, the emphasis on partnerships, divisions of labour and alliances will certainly become important,” said IISS chief John Chipman, launching the report.
In the United States, after defence spending almost doubled under the administration of former president George W. Bush, a budget deficit of 12.5 per cent in 2009 “marked the end of this phase of rising defence spending.
“Both (President Barack) Obama and (Defence Secretary Robert) Gates have signalled that fiscal realities will necessitate a dramatic re-prioritization within defence spending.
“The US military is still under severe strain,” the 490-page report noted.
The report comes a day after Obama defied China by standing firm on plans to meet the Dalai Lama, firmly rejecting Chinese pressure to snub him as rows escalate between Washington and Beijing.
The IISS chief also noted recent tensions between the US and Chinese navies.
“Defining ways in which the two navies might acceptably operate in areas near to China would be a good subject for the military-to-military talks that unfortunately can easily be placed in jeopardy when the countries find themselves in a political dispute, especially over Taiwan,” he said.
Russia’s military ambitions have been hit hard by a 7.5 per cent GDP contraction in 2009, said the report, adding that a 2007-2015 reprioritization program “will be replaced with a new 10-year plan starting in 2011.”
IISS Russia expert Oksana Antonenko said Russia’s military began “profound reform” last year, giving up its “mass mobilization” army and becoming more inter-operable, ready to become a political partner of the West.
Asia’s giants will, however, power ahead militarily. “In contrast to developments in advanced economies, both India and China have maintained their recent trend of double-digit increases in defence spending,” it said.
India boosted defence spending by 21 per cent in 2009 following the November 2008 Mumbai attacks, it noted, adding: “Other Asian states, such as Australia, Indonesia and Singapore have also posted increases.”
In Europe, massive stimulus packages contributed to an increase in budget deficits. “When the time comes to redress these fiscal imbalances, discretionary spending will come under considerable pressure and defence is likely to suffer,” said the IISS report.
Among European Nato member states, only Norway and Denmark are likely to increase defence spending in 2010, and most other countries will do well to increase budgets in line with inflation or match existing budget levels.
