Todjaeger
Potstirrer
The problem (or at least, one of them) I have which an approach and focus as proposed that if one neglects the sea-going forces component, then not only can an island nation become cut off, but also threats to SLOC well outside of the region can effectively cut off NZ or even Oz. Having three or four multi-role frigates with capabilities like that of the Mogami-class can provide NZ some response and persistence capabilities both in the region, as well as an ability to sustain a deployment to areas of interest beyond the immediate region.That’s because geography never changes. We are talking about a large north Asian country in both Imperial Japan and modern China.
In addition to this, both heavily rely on sea borne trade and resources. China’s view of Asia and areas they would want to control will therefore end up similar to WW2.
For NZ, the greatest threat is a subdued or controlled Australia. Whatever contributes to our mutual defence should be priority. If NZ can only afford a good surveillance system (P-8, drones etc) and a small offensive navy (2-4 Mogami?) then it still means they can contribute to an ANZAC force.
I tend to think NZ should refocus their army to light/medium amphibious forces. 1-2 commercial built RORO ships for peacetime disaster relief only. Otherwise as much surveillance systems as they can afford. If they can see it, the RAAF can be tasked to destroy it. Even land based HIMARS or similar would be better value than more surface ships that will just get sunk by the PLAN.
Imagine a scenario where or Indian naval or PLAN forces began harassing/targeting shipping transiting the Indian Ocean in an effort to gain an advantage over each other. In such circumstances, some effort to escort merchant shipping might be necessary to ensure that non-aligned/non-involved traffic, ports and trade hubs can remain in operations. It would be reasonable to expect NZ to be able to undertake missions like this, either individually or as part of a larger multi-national TF without providing a vessel that itself would require escort.
Of course one of the major issues facing the NZDF as an entire entity is that given the overall reductions in relative capabilities and budget over successive gov'ts and decades, the NZDF really needs more of everything and also time to relearn or even just develop the necessary skills and doctrine. The problem here then becomes the question, what is the priority?