Passionate and interesting discussions everyone.
Will likely drift around some on this post, but still hopefully on point for a lot that's been said above.
From a couple of weeks back...
Video of Aotearoa in Antartica.
On face value what a great ship.
Looks like a highly effective vessel for NZ. Perhaps there should be 2? Really, really hope that video and others similar made it to all prime time news outlets across NZ. Got to be positives for recruitment across the forces.
Congratulations to the designers of such a ship.
Todjaeger, thanks for your post from about that time, if not earlier on the significance of proper 'fit for purpose' ship design. Appreciate you taking the time.
Your comments re NZ and AU gov choosing to diminish military funding, my wording there, following the end of the Cold War etc were interesting.
The more I looked the more murky it becomes it seems, which does not instil confidence in gov leadership.
An example that this continues today could be that we are still awaiting a frigate choice at this late stage.
Looks like an unfortunate mindset across all the Anglosphere.
Just as a point of interest looking back some.
At the end of WW2 NZ apparently
(everything today needs to be apparently, possibly, maybe, as you can't really trust anything)....
At the end of WW2 NZ apparently,
had 1000 combat aircraft in the pacific theatre and over 1300 across the world. NZ was also negotiating for 320 P51 when the war ended.
There were around 60 ships of various class/size in the navy.
Population of NZ then, less than 1.8mill.
No doubt our other Anglo nations had similar relevant capacity.
Now we quibble over 2 frigates or 3,
4 P8 or 6. Etc
But, here we are.
The Q and A video on nzdf thread, God defend NZ was very interesting and revealed some of the dynamics going on in the background.
As a wider view I think we are at a place where we are in the greatest time of military change, possibly ever, as it is more than a single event.
More than the invention of the tank, or plane, or jet, rocket, satellite etc.
in many ways it is more like a reinvention of all those combined at the same time.
The effects are dramatic really.
Eg, Ukraine war shows a mid power, with off the shelf cheap drones 3 years ago could turn a major military power.
Today those are now many more drones are far more advanced. Ukraine has effectively halted the Russian advance, diminished/neutralised the Russian Black Sea fleet with drone and missiles. They are significantly damaging the Russian oil infrastructure.
This oil supply decline is adding to the decline of oil supply caused by the Iran war and the Hormuz disaster.
USA fleet seems to sit outside the range of Irans drones and missiles etc.
Worlds most powerful nation many times greater than Iran is held at distance. Hormuz still not yet open after many weeks and the energy effects across the world are and will be significant. Talk of possible fuel rations in Australia in August etc.
This is important.
Point with this is it highlights change in warfare. Questions the strength or viability of conventional navy make up, yet they are a very significant part of power projection and national security.
Frigate replacement 10 years away.
That's rather a long time, yet on the other side it will pass in moments.
The Ukraine and Iran war with drones and missile swarms has changed the battlefield on land, air and sea in 3 years. What will it look like in 10?
What will be the makeup of fighting fleets?
Does NZ need blue water fleet?
Absolutely.
How many hulls to service the needs of NZ area of responsibility?
What kind of hulls are needed.?
What supports pacific islands?
Should there be 10 opv types with 10 fully armed P8?
Or like for like as we have?
Is an ACF really needed?
If so how about 5 B1 Lancers?
Is type 31 a more flexible multi role/drone capable ship, more adaptable to the constant changes in the kit of warfare than Mogami.?
Mogami, a great ship, which seems to be more of a higher level conventional frigate. Will it be capable of an easy update or rather complex?
But then the Japanese could also push the updates through rather quickly.
What do you think?
Who is a likely real threat to NZ and South Pacific?
Is China the main one?
I'm of the opinion that China is likely to pivot more north now for a time and push up into eastern Russia.
Russia couldn't stop them.
It will be interesting to see.
Also the continuing demographics of significant population decline in China is becoming a huge problem for them.
South Pacific may be a straw less inviting at the moment for them perhaps?
Does NZ have the capacity to build more of its own military capability?
The NZDF thread interview highlighted a lot of significant work being done in NZ with rockets, satellites and the Syos company with their advancing technologies.
Looks like they are also doing some significant work with RN. Will that add into a Babcock deal?
Is that technology also going Japans way? Be surprised if it wasn't.
The NZDF interveiw brought to mind the shipping company established in insignificant NZ in 1875 that grew to become what was known as the southern octopus with its routes reaching to America among others.
People who had a vision and got on with it.
So can NZ rise to the occasion of what's needed ahead?
Yes I think it can, there is no doubt!
Question to ask though, does it want to?
Will likely drift around some on this post, but still hopefully on point for a lot that's been said above.
From a couple of weeks back...
Video of Aotearoa in Antartica.
On face value what a great ship.
Looks like a highly effective vessel for NZ. Perhaps there should be 2? Really, really hope that video and others similar made it to all prime time news outlets across NZ. Got to be positives for recruitment across the forces.
Congratulations to the designers of such a ship.
Todjaeger, thanks for your post from about that time, if not earlier on the significance of proper 'fit for purpose' ship design. Appreciate you taking the time.
Your comments re NZ and AU gov choosing to diminish military funding, my wording there, following the end of the Cold War etc were interesting.
The more I looked the more murky it becomes it seems, which does not instil confidence in gov leadership.
An example that this continues today could be that we are still awaiting a frigate choice at this late stage.
Looks like an unfortunate mindset across all the Anglosphere.
Just as a point of interest looking back some.
At the end of WW2 NZ apparently
(everything today needs to be apparently, possibly, maybe, as you can't really trust anything)....
At the end of WW2 NZ apparently,
had 1000 combat aircraft in the pacific theatre and over 1300 across the world. NZ was also negotiating for 320 P51 when the war ended.
There were around 60 ships of various class/size in the navy.
Population of NZ then, less than 1.8mill.
No doubt our other Anglo nations had similar relevant capacity.
Now we quibble over 2 frigates or 3,
4 P8 or 6. Etc
But, here we are.
The Q and A video on nzdf thread, God defend NZ was very interesting and revealed some of the dynamics going on in the background.
As a wider view I think we are at a place where we are in the greatest time of military change, possibly ever, as it is more than a single event.
More than the invention of the tank, or plane, or jet, rocket, satellite etc.
in many ways it is more like a reinvention of all those combined at the same time.
The effects are dramatic really.
Eg, Ukraine war shows a mid power, with off the shelf cheap drones 3 years ago could turn a major military power.
Today those are now many more drones are far more advanced. Ukraine has effectively halted the Russian advance, diminished/neutralised the Russian Black Sea fleet with drone and missiles. They are significantly damaging the Russian oil infrastructure.
This oil supply decline is adding to the decline of oil supply caused by the Iran war and the Hormuz disaster.
USA fleet seems to sit outside the range of Irans drones and missiles etc.
Worlds most powerful nation many times greater than Iran is held at distance. Hormuz still not yet open after many weeks and the energy effects across the world are and will be significant. Talk of possible fuel rations in Australia in August etc.
This is important.
Point with this is it highlights change in warfare. Questions the strength or viability of conventional navy make up, yet they are a very significant part of power projection and national security.
Frigate replacement 10 years away.
That's rather a long time, yet on the other side it will pass in moments.
The Ukraine and Iran war with drones and missile swarms has changed the battlefield on land, air and sea in 3 years. What will it look like in 10?
What will be the makeup of fighting fleets?
Does NZ need blue water fleet?
Absolutely.
How many hulls to service the needs of NZ area of responsibility?
What kind of hulls are needed.?
What supports pacific islands?
Should there be 10 opv types with 10 fully armed P8?
Or like for like as we have?
Is an ACF really needed?
If so how about 5 B1 Lancers?
Is type 31 a more flexible multi role/drone capable ship, more adaptable to the constant changes in the kit of warfare than Mogami.?
Mogami, a great ship, which seems to be more of a higher level conventional frigate. Will it be capable of an easy update or rather complex?
But then the Japanese could also push the updates through rather quickly.
What do you think?
Who is a likely real threat to NZ and South Pacific?
Is China the main one?
I'm of the opinion that China is likely to pivot more north now for a time and push up into eastern Russia.
Russia couldn't stop them.
It will be interesting to see.
Also the continuing demographics of significant population decline in China is becoming a huge problem for them.
South Pacific may be a straw less inviting at the moment for them perhaps?
Does NZ have the capacity to build more of its own military capability?
The NZDF thread interview highlighted a lot of significant work being done in NZ with rockets, satellites and the Syos company with their advancing technologies.
Looks like they are also doing some significant work with RN. Will that add into a Babcock deal?
Is that technology also going Japans way? Be surprised if it wasn't.
The NZDF interveiw brought to mind the shipping company established in insignificant NZ in 1875 that grew to become what was known as the southern octopus with its routes reaching to America among others.
People who had a vision and got on with it.
So can NZ rise to the occasion of what's needed ahead?
Yes I think it can, there is no doubt!
Question to ask though, does it want to?
