Agence France-Presse,
WASHINGTON: Insurgency-wracked Afghanistan will become a failed state if urgent steps are not taken to tackle a deteriorating security situation and lackluster reconstruction and governance efforts, experts warned in separate reports Wednesday.
“Urgent changes are required now to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a failing or failed state,” said one report from the Atlantic Council of the United States, led by retired Marine Corps General James Jones.
It said Taliban militant control of the sparsely populated parts of Afghanistan was “increasing” and civil reforms, reconstruction, and development work “have not gained traction” across the whole country, especially in the south.
“To add insult to injury, of every dollar of aid spent on Afghanistan, less than ten percent goes directly to Afghans, further compounding reform and reconstruction problems,” the report said.
Southern Afghanistan has seen the worst violence since the Taliban were ousted from power in a US-led invasion of 2001 following the September 11 terror attacks masterminded by the Al-Qaeda, whose leaders were given sanctuary by the Taliban.
As US and NATO-led troops wage an uphill battle now to keep the Taliban at bay, civil sector reform “is in serious trouble” despite immense resources poured into the country and nearly seven years of effort by the Afghan government and the international community, the report said.
“Not just the future of the Afghan people is at stake. If Afghanistan fails, the possible strategic consequences will worsen regional instability, do great harm to the fight against Jihadist and religious extremism,” the report said.
It would also “put in grave jeopardy NATO's future as a credible, cohesive and relevant military alliance,” it said.
Recent polls in Afghanistan reflect a downward turn in attitudes toward the ability of Kabul and the international community to improve the most critical problems facing the country: insecurity, weak governance, widespread corruption, a poor economy and unemployment.
Reacting to the reports, the US State Department said there had been “real progress” since the Taliban was ousted but added that it was critical for NATO and others to maintain strong commitment to rebuilding Afghanistan and bolstering security.
“We know what a failed state in Afghanistan looks like. That was Afghanistan under the Taliban prior to 2001. Afghanistan today does not look like that,” said department spokesman Sean McCormack.
“There has been real progress where Afghanistan was six years ago. Is there a long way to go? Absolutely,” he said.
The Afghanistan Study Group, co-chaired by Jones and former UN ambassador Thomas Pickering, said the “light footprint” in Afghanistan needed to be replaced with the “right footprint” by the United States and its allies.
The group, which also includes prominent experts on the region and on foreign policy, called for the appointment of a special envoy for Afghanistan position within the US government, charged with coordinating all aspects of US policies toward it.
It also wanted the US administration and the Congress to “decouple” Iraq and Afghanistan in the legislative process and in the management of these conflicts in the executive branch.
In addition, the group sought an international mandate to formulate a “new unified strategy” to stabilize Afghanistan over the next five years and to build international support for it.
The gloomy Afghanistan outlook reports are to be debated by US lawmakers later Wednesday.
