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NAIROBI: Somalia seems to be rushing towards war but mutual fear and complex international interests could yet forestall a conflict that would engulf the Horn of Africa in a sea of ancient and modern rivalries.
A surging Islamist movement now dominating most of south Somalia and their rivals in the interim government, backed by neighbouring Ethiopia, have test-fired weapons in the past week at a tense front just kilometres (miles) apart.
Fiery talk from both sides and a skirmish this week between the Islamists and pro-government fighters from the northern enclave of Puntland have stoked tensions, especially after the failure of a third round of peace talks in nearby Sudan.
But diplomats and analysts say a discreet peace initiative this week by the interim parliament speaker, whose relations with the Islamists are good, provides hope war can be averted.
“I am not sure they are going to war. Something is cooking behind the scenes. If it all comes together, in the right order, then war can be avoided,” a Western diplomat who follows Somalia but is not authorised to speak on the record told Reuters.
Nonetheless, an ancient brew of religion, trade and the interests of regional powers is playing out underneath the conflict, reflected in the way in which the two sides are roughly split on Muslim-Christian lines.
“None of the actors wants a war including Ethiopia … but all the actors also have interests that interfere with that reluctance,” said Michael Weinstein, a professor of political science at Indiana's Purdue University.
In addition, both sides may back away from conflict because they are unsure of the strength of their rivals, given the complex web of alliances, and because they fear the potential for a widening and bloody regional war.
“If you have a war scenario, one of the best things to stop it from happening is for the parties to fear each other equally,” the diplomat said. “I think that is true here.”
ANCIENT FIGHT FOR INFLUENCE
At stake, whether the impasse is broken by bullet or diplomacy, is priority access to the critical trade flowing through the Horn of Africa and Muslim influence against dominance of east Africa by pro-Western states.
Since Islam arrived via Arab traders in the 7th century, Somalia has been a key to the volatile region because its triangular coastline, which gave the Horn its name, is a trading crossroads.
“You have an area that is the bridge between Africa and the Middle East, and to have a radical regime in either Sudan or Somalia increases the sphere of influence for extremists in Africa,” said Princeton Lyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and now with the Council on Foreign Relations.
Fear of that drew Washington into an intervention that backfired when the Islamists defeated CIA-backed warlords in June, then swiftly marched across much of southern Somalia.
Experts say the Islamists, whose main interest is to unite Somalia under sharia law, have backing from Egypt, Sudan, Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, as well as Eritrea.
Egypt and Sudan fear Ethiopia's upstream control of the Nile could harm them, especially since it announced plans to build hydroelectric dams earlier this year.
BULWARK
Backed by Ethiopia and Western governments plus east African powers Kenya and Uganda, the interim government of President Abdullahi Yusuf is seen by its supporters as the only bulwark against Muslim extremism in the country despite its weakness.
Addis Ababa says the Islamists are led by terrorists and has sent in troops to prop up the government. The Islamists have exploited this to rouse Somali nationalism against a rival seen for centuries as a Christian imperialist power.
Weinstein said the Islamists have seized on a chance to realign the balance of power in the Horn and east Africa, where Ethiopia and Kenya have a 40-year tradition of cooperation against Somali expansionism.
Eritrea, keen to frustrate arch-rival Ethiopia, has grown its influence by becoming the frontman for those nations which want to back the Islamists quietly, analysts say.
Asmara denies arming the Islamists, but security experts say it has provided weapons and probably military training.
Many fear Somalia will become a new arena for the 1998-2000 Ethiopia-Eritrea border war, which although technically over, remains an open sore because of disagreement over the border demarcation under the peace process.
But all the tension for now might just be shadow boxing. “There is all this feinting, all this testing, that I am not convinced is a prelude to war,” Weinstein said. “I don't think anyone is ready.”
