Agence France-Presse,
Warsaw: If a US missile shield goes ahead in Europe as planned it will be a major shift towards a defensive strategy of deterrence in a new era of nuclear proliferation and rogue regimes, analysts said.
“The adoption of missile defence in Poland would imply a significant shift in Western strategic thinking,” Benjamin Schreer, an analyst at the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs told AFP.
“With new terrorist threats and particularly the proliferation of ballistic missile systems and nuclear weapons, the West's offense-based security and deterrence strategy is no longer sufficient — a new mix including offensive and defensive elements is necessary,” he said.
The Czech Republic and Poland have difficult decisions to make on hosting parts of the shield, amid Russian fury at the prospect of US interceptor missiles based so close to its borders.
Washington is currently in negotiations with Warsaw to install 10 interceptor missile sites in Poland by 2012 to ward off potential attacks by so-called rogue states, notably Iran.
The plan calls for associated radar stations in the Czech Republic.
But Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Thursday that Poland and the Czech Republic were in no rush to conclude negotiations with Washington.
“It is not a race against time. The essential thing is to get what we want from the negotiation, for the Polish as well as the Czech sides,” Tusk told a joint news conference with his Czech counterpart, Mirek Topolanek.
British expert Tim Williams agreed the shield would be a major departure from current “offensive” policy and said missile defence in eastern Europe was clearly seen as “the way to go” in an era of shadowy nuclear proliferation.
“It moves from the current practice of deterrence with offensive weapons to deterrence by defence and denial — denying your enemy the ability to strike,” Williams, from the Royal United Services Institute, told AFP.
“It could be the first step in a new global security architecture,” he added.
Schreer went even further, suggesting that a shift to missile defence systems from purely offensive capabilities could “reduce the West's reliance on nuclear weapons as a primary means of deterrence.”
Critics say the project could provoke a new arms race and point to Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent decision to suspend participation in the CFE, a Cold War-era treaty that set limits on troops and weapons.
Other missile shield opponents contend the project just won't fly as it relies on unworkable technology and is simply too expensive given there is no credible threat to justify it.
While Washington continues its negotiations with Prague and Warsaw, it is also attempting to win over Moscow — so far with little success.
Schreer forecasts that Moscow's objections would not prove decisive to the project's future.
“It knows perfectly well it can't stop the missile shield just as it could not prevent the (1999) expansion of NATO to its doorstep,” he said.
“Russia also shares a fundamental security concern with the West — both are worried about Iran developing an offensive nuclear capability.”
But wary of polls showing that a majority of Poles worry the shield could make their country more of a target for terrorists, Tusk says he will only consider the project if he thinks it will make Poland more secure.
He has made it clear he wants extra US security guarantees, possibly in the form of a Patriot missile air defence system similar to one already deployed in neighbouring NATO-member Germany.
This key bargaining chip is expected to be high on the agenda when Polish Defence Minister Bogdan Klich visits Washington next week.
With a Russian delegation in Warsaw this week for talks on the shield and Tusk due in Moscow next month, Poland's ruling liberals are also keen to prevent the US plan from compromising their push to mend tattered ties with Russia.
There are also concerns the shield project could be dropped in the event of a Democratic victory in November's US presidential election.
“The worst scenario is a situation in which Poland would agree to the shield, will incur the political costs and then the base is not built, because of a change of government in the United States,” Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said recently.
