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The best strategy to defending Singapore Island

Discussion in 'Strategy & Tactics' started by Twister, Dec 31, 2008.

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  1. exported_kiwi

    exported_kiwi New Member

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    As another member previously pointed out, acquisition of such weapons systems would raise a few eyebrows, to say the least and would cause Singapore to seriously think about where these weapons are to be used and for which purpose.
    Geographically, they can only target either each other or Singapore really, and have a hope of any credible or serious military effect.
    I imagine that if such systems/weapons were to be acquired, Singaporean/ANZAC intelligence services would get wind of it fairly quickly and the diplomatic cables would be "abuzz" with questions why.
     
  2. Ananda

    Ananda Well-Known Member

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    Indonesia will not attack Singapore. Why ?? Too many Indonesian Elites (Officials, Generals, Politicians, Business Tycoons) already Invest much in Singapore. Latest Singapore property reports show Indonesian for more than a decade already become large buyers in Singapore property market, and more and more they become significant pillar upholding Singapore property market.

    This only talking on property Investment, which only made smaller part of Indonesian Investment in Singapore where the biggest part mostly on Financials assets. And this also coming in two ways. Singaporean Investment in Indonesia also increasingly making significant part from total Singaporean Investment overseas.

    Inter-dependent on business and economics are the largest guarantee for peace in any region. And Asean already moving into that direction although still 'relatively' smaller than EU members inter-dependent sphere. Inter-Asean trade growth making faster paces. While although they (Asean Members) still hold some degree of suspicions on each other, but those mostly on business sides and less on political side.

    Among all Asean members, Malaysian and Singapore business and economics inter-dependent are the largest. This is understandable considering the historical ties between two nation. After that Indonesia and Singapore inter-dependent coming second, than followed by Malaysian and Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore, etc,etc.

    In short, between Asean members, the incentive to maintain political stability in the region become more and more inter-connected with their own domestic economic and business stability. Among Asean, the inter-dependent between Malaysia and Singapore and increasingly Indonesia are relatively highest among members. True those three still have bigger trading partners outside Asean, but increasingly their dependency to each other become bigger each days.

    Thus, even-though those three (Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia) have spare-out some negative sentiment to each other from time to time. However those three also become increasingly realize that they become more dependent to each other on days ahead.

    Just like I stated before, Business and Economics and not Politics now these days increasingly become the biggest guarantor of stability.
     
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  3. Saracens

    Saracens New Member

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    Indonesia has acquired Yakhont from Russia and already test it, the range is 300+ km.
    And also already aquired C-705 Chinese missile technology to produce at Indonesia, the range is 100+ km.
    Some said that Indonesia want to produce up to 1000 C-705 at 2014.

    TNI AL ships will be equip with those missile.

    And, Indonesia's own missile technology now going increase, whether for military purpose or aeronautical purpose.

    And Indonesia strategic industrial are speed up really seriously now, as I'm take part for some upgrading machine quality and capacity with European technology.

    Like Ananda said, Indonesia will not attack Singapore.
    But, with this progress from Indonesia, will it take serious to capability Singapore Air Force ?
     
  4. SpartanSG

    SpartanSG New Member

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    Thank you Ananda.

    That is exactly why military conflict between Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia is a very remote possibility.

    Nonetheless, it does not prevent people from postulating such scenarios of military that is divorced from the reality due to the very high cost of all involved should such a conflict break-out.

    Also, in the event of such a conflict, the shipping lanes through Southeast Asia, in particular the Malacca Strait, will be affected. Those countries that rely on imported oil passing through Malacca Strait to run their economy (such as China, Japan and South Korea) will certainly not sit idlely by and watch the conflict unfold. Cutting those energy supply lines will produce a serious shock to their economies.
     
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  5. STURM

    STURM Well-Known Member

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    Both missiles you mentioned are anti-ship missiles. What will really raise eyebrows will be if a country acquires missiles like the Brahmos, in large quantities.

    As I have indicated previously, for the TNI to reach parity with the SAF, the defence budget would have to be significantly increased over the long run. And the TNI still has much larger peacetime commitments as Indonesia is a much, much larger country and will not be able to devote all its resources to dealing with the SAF.
     
  6. STURM

    STURM Well-Known Member

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    IMO the way the TNI is organised [e.g. Kostrad] fully reflects the operational requirements of the TNI-AD due to the country's unique geography - the need to have the ability to rapidly move troops to all corners of the vast archipelago at short notice. They learnt this the hard way, from the 1950s onwards, when a series of bush wars fought against various nationalist groups and campaigns fought in East Timor and Irian Jaya led to the need to have units that could be rapidly deployed. The fact that TNI is not making additional efforts to 'conventionalise' the TNI-AD [the purchase of Leopards included which is part of a modernisation plan and not part of a plan to change the force structure of the TNI-AD into 'heavier units'] I think is also due to the realisation that the chances of a full scale war with a neighbour is unlikely and that any future threats will still be of a low intensity kind, the kind the TNI has been facing for the past few decades.
     
  7. OPSSG

    OPSSG Super Moderator Staff Member

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    The Little Red Dot

    1. The "Little Red Dot" is an epithet for the nation of Singapore that used to refer to Singapore in a disparaging manner by former Indonesian President B.J. Habibie. But has come to be used by Singaporean citizens with pride despite the country's limited size. And because Singapore resides in a region with larger and ambitious neighbours (with Indonesia and Malaysia being over 2,680 and 470 times bigger than Singapore, respectively) that can be suddenly hostile. Singaporeans understand that peace we enjoy must be defended. That is why the mission of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) is to enhance Singapore's peace and security through deterrence and diplomacy, and should these fail, to secure a swift and decisive victory over the aggressor. As we say in Singapore, when life gives you lemons, Singaporeans strive to be the best lemonade supplier in the region.

    2. The opening sequence of the Normandy landing in movies like Steven Spielberg's 1998 movie, Saving Private Ryan, encourage the layman to think of in terms of ‘old school’ or World War II versions of amphibious warfare (where troops storm the beaches in a hail of bullets and artillery fire) or in a force-able entry scenario for the US Marines. In contemporary amphibious warfare, sending Singaporean forces to storm ashore against heavily defended beaches with defensive beach obstacles and layered defences is a fools errant, as the SAF lacks this force-able entry capability. Rather, amphibious operations, conducted by the SAF, seek to exploit the element of surprise by applying the combat power, precisely at a location and time that is deemed advantageous by higher command.

    3. Amphibious ships provide Singapore with a basic capability to conduct raids, demonstrations and withdrawals from the sea, in lightly or unopposed landings from Endurance Class vessels stationed about 3 km to 8 km from shore. Given that 25% of beaches can take landing craft, 75% of coastlines are accessible by hovercraft and 95% can be accessed by small boats, the operational art of contemporary amphibious warfare prefer to land Singapore's forces on beaches in areas with little or no opposition. Therefore, Singapore's four Endurance Class vessels provide the SAF with a capability to conduct manoeuvre warfare in the littorals of the near abroad, in a synchronised manner while utilising its air and naval power to destroy or disrupt enemy C4I, lines of communications, and logistics. This capability enables the Singapore Army's combined arms divisions to be relevant and decisive in meeting a range of threats within Singapore's threat matrix.

    4. Singapore is a maritime nation and the Singapore Navy provides with a crucial capability to secure Singapore's Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs). SLOCs are crucial to a port city connected to the maritime commerce of all of the Indo-Pacific region (i.e. the Malacca and Singapore Straits). More than 3,000 vessels call Singapore every week. Dedicated intra-Asia services connect Singapore to many of the smaller ports, whereas the big vessels on the services from North America and Europe represent the main connections not only to the markets outside Asia; but also to all the major ports in Asia (i.e. Shanghai, Hong Kong, Busan, and Tokyo). To secure our SLOCs, the Singapore Navy has conducted a spectrum of operations that includes:-

    See this short video on how the Singapore Navy defends Singapore everyday as backgrounder : http://youtu.be/7LzwBEIFu_8

    (i) participating in an international search and recover operations for a missing airliner -- a frigate (with an organic sikorsky S-70B), a missile corvette and the MV Swift Rescue were deployed to assist in the search and locate operations in the South China Sea for Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370, which went missing on 8 March 2014 (until the Malaysians acting on new radar and satellite data, terminated the search in that area and relocated the search to other areas). In another unfortunate search and recover mission, on 14 January 2015, the Singapore Navy finds fuselage of crashed AirAsia jet flight QZ8501;

    (ii) conducting ongoing counter-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden under CTF-151, in Operation Blue Sapphire. Singaporean boarding teams from the Naval Diving Unit (NDU) have faced off with pirates and sank their attack skiffs in Operation Blue Sapphire (see: http://youtu.be/MpFPwXcENIE). In April 2016, Singapore Takes Over Command of Multinational Counter-Piracy Task Force for Fourth Time; and

    (iii) conducting disaster relief operations in the near abroad after the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004, in Operation Flying Eagle. RSS Endurance was the first foreign navy ship to re-establish a life-line to Meulaboh (a coastal town in West Sumatra that was previously completely cut off after the tsunami). Singapore's contributions to Indonesia included the deployment of three Endurance Class LPDs, eight CH-47 Chinooks and four Super Pumas, six C-130s, two F-50s, a mobile air traffic control tower (see this video: http://youtu.be/jnZVrs5Sjp4). Following from that experience, Singapore in 2014 stood-up the Changi Regional HADR Coordination Centre. ​

    5. While the Singapore Army continues to train for jungle warfare and urban warfare, it must also adapt to the three megatrends identified by David Kilcullen, where he sees the future of warfare against non-state actors as urban, littoral and connected (see his 2012 article on: "The City as a System: Future Conflict and Urban Resilience"). The data suggest that this is the environment in which future conflict will occur. This is not a futuristic prediction, but rather a projection of trends that are evident now, and an assessment of their effects on cities as they exist today. The future is hybrid and irregular conflict combining elements of crime, urban unrest, insurgency, terrorism, and state-sponsored asymmetric warfare — more Mumbai in India, Mogadishu in Somalia, Zamboanga in Philippines, and Tivoli Gardens in Jamaica. The SAF understands that if they are to shape events on land, they need the ability to project power into the connected coastal urban areas (i.e. people using cell-phones for data access in coastal cities) and in the littoral domain surrounding growing ASEAN cities. Richard J. Norton's 2003 Naval War College article, "Feral Cities" has a concept that is useful. A “feral city” is defined by Dr. Norton as:-

    "A metropolis with a population of more than a million people in a state the government of which has lost the ability to maintain the rule of law within the city’s boundaries yet remains a functioning actor in the greater international system." ​

    6. In 2004 Singapore's defence budget was SGD8.6 billion and in 2013, it was SGD12.2 billion. In other words, defence spending has kept pace more or less with inflation and going forward that Singapore's defence spending to continue on this trajectory that more or less keeps pace with inflation, over the long term. According to IHS Janes' estimates, the RSAF receives 53% of the SAF's total procurement budget (with the navy and army receiving 26% and 19%).
    7. Speaking at the Committee of Supply or Budget Debate on 7 Apr, Dr Ng told Parliament that although there was no specific intelligence of any imminent plot against Singapore, intelligence agencies had indicated that almost all cities, including Singapore, were targets. But as today’s threats continue to evolve, so too must the SAF adapt, said Dr Ng. "Studying what happened in Paris, Jakarta, and Brussels, the SAF will enhance its incident response." Terrorism was a challenge that the Ministry of Defence and the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) had identified a decade ago. We should also take note of the fact that Singapore's defence budget has increased, in response to an urgent need to recapitalise certain categories of ageing defence assets - such as the retirement or upcoming end of life of the following:

    (1) the last F-5 squadron (replaced with a 2nd squadron of F-15SGs) and lethality upgrades to the F-16C/Ds (with AESA radar and new weapons),
    (2) the 4 KC-135R (to be replaced with 6 A-330 MRTT),
    (3) the 40 Searcher UAVs (replaced with the Heron-1 and Hermes 450 UAVs),
    (4) the fleet of V-200s (replaced with the Protected Response Vehicle - Renault Higuard),
    (5) the older suite of air defence radars, including the FPS-117A (replaced by the ELM-2084 Multi Mission Radar, the existing Giraffe AMB, the 200 SHIKRA radar and the future Ticom 55 aerostat); which will provide a extremely high resolution air picture for Singapore's air defenders,
    (6) the older ground based air defence missiles, including the I-Hawk missiles (replaced with the Spyder air defence missile firing units and the ASTER 30),
    (7) new helicopters to replace the old fleets of Super Puma and some of the CH-47D Chinook helicopters,
    (8) old AEVs, ARVs and VLBs like the M728 AEVs (replaced with the AEV, known as the Pionierpanzer 3 Kodiak), the old ARVs (replaced with the Buffel Armoured Recovery Vehicle), and the old M60 based VLBs (replaced with the Biber Armoured Vehicle Launched Bridge),
    (9) old land-rover vehicles (replaced with the Protected Combat Support Vehicle - URO VAMTAC and the Ford 550 ambulances),
    (10) older sat com 3 tonner (replaced with the MAN 5 Ton Very Small Aperture SAT Comm),
    (11) the 11 Fearless Class Vessels (to be replaced with 8 LMVs),
    (12) the last 2 Challenger Class submarines (to be replaced with 2 Type-218SGs),
    (13) the replacement for the AMX-13S1 and so on (too lazy to list further). ​
    8. Winston Churchill described the British defeat at Singapore in 1942 as 'The greatest disaster ever to befall British arms'. On 15 February 1942, the British Imperial garrison of Singapore, surrendered to a numerically smaller Japanese assault force. The British military intelligence officer Hughes-Wilson attributes the intelligence effort at Singapore as having four fatal flaws as follows:

    (i) underestimation of the enemy;

    (ii) fragmentation of effort;

    (iii) lack of resources; and

    (iv) no influence at the highest levels of command and control. ​

    9. Learning from the above past mistakes, Singapore understands that to be fore-warned is to be fore-armed. Good intelligence is of crucial importance to a small state, like Singapore. The security problems faced by Singapore go beyond the traditional need for intelligence on state actors from the past. Today's threats faced are multi-faceted, trans-national and complex. Singapore understands the need to have the ability to gather information to conduct counter-terrorism operations against both state and non-state actors. Singapore is not shy about learning from others, and as events unfold, someone in Singapore, is observing, gathering intelligence, acting on that intelligence, and learning from that incident.

    (i) To tackle the threat of ISIS at the source, the SAF has extended its deployment of an Imagery Analysis Team (IAT) in the Middle-East, Dr Ng announced. Last year, the SAF deployed a KC-135R tanker to support air-to-air refuelling operations, and an IAT as part of the multi-national coalition effort to combat ISIS. The IAT was tasked to monitor suspected terrorist facilities and activities to help the coalition in disrupting supply chains that feed networks in the region. Dr Ng noted that coalition commanders had commended the IAT's efforts, and asked the SAF to continue their deployment.

    (ii) The SAF is also stepping up intelligence-sharing with Malaysia, Indonesia, the United States, and Australia. This will provide early warning for Singapore, allowing authorities to apprehend terrorist suspects that intend to do the country harm.

    (iii) To strengthen practical cooperation, Singapore will co-organise the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus Maritime Security and Counter-Terrorism Exercise with Brunei, Australia and New Zealand in May 2016.

    (iv) To guard against cyber-attacks, the SAF will double the number of cyber defence personnel in the Cyber Defence Operations Hub by 2020, he announced. These cyber defence personnel will use more artificial intelligence and big data analytics to better detect and respond to cyber threats. The SAF will also shore up the security of its network and hardware, and build greater security design into software design. ​

    10. In any strategy for defending Singapore, we must embrace apparently contradictory notions (at least on the surface) - as we need to engage difficult partners and yet deter difficult partners at the same time. A sophisticated understanding of security strategy needs to deal with the idea of politik as it is used in the German tradition.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2016
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  8. Hashiva

    Hashiva New Member

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    Singapore is smaller in size but one of the moderanised country in world. The general felicities as well as army everything they are doing is of a good quality. You can see some positive growths of there army in Google news results.
     
  9. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    No one line posts.
     
  10. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    No more one line posts, or you will be sanctioned by the Moderators. You have already had one polite reminder.
     
  11. ASSAIL

    ASSAIL Defense Professional Verified Defense Pro

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    There was one strategy that failed miserably, 75 years ago today.

    Today we commemorate the capitulation of Singapore Island in 1942 when nearly 80,000 allied troops surrendered to a very much smaller Japanese force and entered into just over 31/2 years of miserable captivity from which many did not return.

    Not really OT but historically On topic. I'm sure that many of those mistakes and vulnerabilities have been studied and gamed by our modern successors.
     
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  12. OPSSG

    OPSSG Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Malaysia welcomes talks with Singapore on maritime dispute: Mahathir

    This is to be expected with Mahathir bin Mohamad as PM of Malaysia (after the parties worked out an alternative way to allow Malaysia to defer for 2 years the High Speed Rail Project for S$15 million). This is no longer 1991 and the same bag of tricks by a Malaysian politician for short term political gain should not and cannot be allowed to work again. We should not fall for the same tricks again - after all an eye for an eye makes the whole world blind. It’s not a game of us vs them. Be calm, do the sensible and necessary. Thereafter, Singapore has to move forward with confidence.

    For background, on 25 Oct 2018, Malaysia issued Federal Government Gazette P.U. (B) 587 “Declaration of Alteration of Port Limits for Johore Bahru Port”. This unilaterally and arbitrarily extended the Johor Bahru Port Limits. Apart from the fact that Singapore has never accepted their territorial claims, the recent purported extension of the Johor Bahru Port Limits goes beyond what even Malaysia itself claimed as its territorial waters. Out of the blue, Malaysia is claiming these territorial waters that belong to Singapore. On 5 Nov 2018, Singapore issued a Third Person Note (TPN) via demarche. Singapore also issued a second TPN via demarche on 29 Nov 2018 to protest the Port Circular and Notice to Mariners.

    Airspace management over southern Johor also came into the spotlight on 4 Dec 2018, after Singapore and Malaysia traded conflicting views over the issue. Under the current arrangement, management of the airspace over southern Johor is delegated to Singapore, meaning that Singapore provides air traffic control services in that airspace. This arrangement was agreed upon in 1973 by Malaysia, Singapore and other regional states, and subsequently approved by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). A bilateral agreement was then signed between Malaysia and Singapore in 1974. As expected, Malaysia says it now wants to reclaim this "delegated airspace."

    This video shows Malaysia’s escalation via the unilateral deployment of non-military vessels off Tuas. This is provocative, as it is an attempt to new facts on the ground and do not set the right tone for Singapore-Malaysia relations, going forward.

    As I said above, it’s not a game of us vs them. Be calm, do the sensible to increase patrols and the necessary to protect our interests by filing diplomatic protests while showing resolve by conducting publicised mobilisation of our standby force.

    In any strategy for defending Singapore, we must embrace apparently contradictory notions (at least on the surface) - we need to engage Malaysia and yet deter Malaysia as a difficult partner at the same time. A sophisticated understanding of security strategy needs to deal with the idea of realpolitik. In realpolitik, the key consideration is given to present circumstances and local factors, rather than moral or ethical premises. While a war of attrition might not be an option against Malaysia in this case, Singapore can afford to slowly raise the stakes of their decision to seek confrontation in our port waters off Tuas, with our naval capability.

    Thankfully, over the last 27 years, Singapore's strategy of improving our military capabilities to respond across the spectrum have raised the stakes for any potential aggressor. In 2018 Singapore’s defence budget of SGD14.76 billion (US$11.2 billion) is almost double that of the Malaysian defense budget of US$5.68 billion, which is why they will seek to escalate via the grey zone. Malaysian Foreign Affairs Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said on (Friday) 7 Dec 2018 that Malaysia had proposed to Singapore that both countries “cease and desist” from sending assets into what it called a “disputed area”is comical.

    - The clowns in the Malaysian government create the problem.

    - When Singapore agencies respond to defend our interests, they say that the solution to the problem Malaysia created in the first place is for Singapore to:

    (i) cease defending our interests; and

    (ii) accept responsibility for the problem the Malaysians created!

    Singapore's Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing said, also on (Saturday) 8 Dec 2018, that with the "risk of escalation cannot be underestimated" in the ongoing dispute. "The ground situation is tense. The ships are in close proximity with one another and we know that some ships are armed, so the risk of escalation cannot be underestimated. Accidents might happen,” he had said. “We urge all parties to revert to the pre-Oct 25 status quo ante for things to calm down. And there are ways to do this under international law without prejudice to Malaysia."
     
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  13. OPSSG

    OPSSG Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Geopolitics assumes two things: first, that human beings have a preference to be loyal to the people and the places they were born into; second, that the character of a nation is determined to a great extent by geography, as is the relationship between nations. The term "geography" includes the physical characteristics of a location, but it goes beyond that to look at the effects of a place on individuals and communities. These are the foundation of geopolitical forecasting.

    Opinion and reputation have little to do with national power. Whether the current Malaysian PM is loathed or admired is of some minor importance but the fundamentals of Malaysian power (or rather its lack of power) is overarching. Nor do passing events like disputes over port waters or air space have much to do with national power, no matter how significant they appear at that moment. The basic geometry of Malaysian weakness viz a viz it’s more powerful neighbours, like Indonesia, and Thailand does not change. While Singapore’s geopolitical potential may be limited, we are not in danger of fragmenting further unlike Malaysia, as a country of 2 unequal parts, split along the fault-line of East and West Malaysia. Have a look at the history books. Malaysia will always be weaker than Thailand. Si Rat Malai was the former administrative division of Thailand. It included the four northern states of Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan, and Terengganu in British Malaya annexed by the Axis-aligned Thai government after the Japanese invasion of Malaya.

    That is why Singaporeans, as their equals, should pity Malaysia, as their leading party in the ruling coalition (be it UMNO, Bersatu or Pakatan Harapan) are traditionally poor geopolitical chess players, rather than get angry at their antics. It is irrational of the Malaysians to seek a quarrel with Singapore as an equal at the negotiating table. It’s either a stalemate, as a best case or they lose out in private negotiations (and that is the most likely). But losing to Singapore in a military engagement is not the worse case scenario. The worse case scenario is further fragmentation of Malaysia - where the regions lose confidence in Dr M’s ability to lead (with Anwar due to take over the hot seat by May 2020). The 2013 Lahad Datu standoff from February to March 2013, is instructive of the need for Malaysia to defend and police Sabah from terrorist threats arising from the Philippines. A military conflict with Singapore will result in the loss of Malaysia’s ability to defend Sabah.

    As George Friedman noted, China, is most often mentioned as the challenger to the US. But if we look at matters from a geopolitical lens, we can understand China’s weakness. Read his analysis of China’s weakness to understand the Malaysian geopolitical dilemma (and not the Malay dilemma as wrongly framed by Dr. M). The Malaysians are 5 chess moves away from becoming a weak state (a step removed from being listed in the Fragile States Index). A fragile state has several attributes. Common indicators include a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective; non-provision of public services; widespread corruption; involuntary movement of populations; and sharp economic decline.

    With the back to the future Dr M and his newly formed Bersatu party perpetuating the same race based entitlement politics (aka a variation of the Bumiputra policy) as its core ideology and method of mobilising political support, Malaysia’s accelerated and increased weakness for the next 20 years is assured. Dr M’s policies as UMNO party leader (when he was previously PM), from 1981 to 2003, failed Malaysia. The Dec 2018 quote below illustrates his back to the future mindset for his Bersatu party:

    “They (the Malays) want somebody to protect them... and they believe that only Malays can protect them so they want this party. If we (Bersatu) don't cater to them, we (Pakatan Harapan) will not get their support and we will always lose,” said Dr M in a media interview.

    IMO, unless the government in power is inclusive of the aspirations of all Malaysians, the same ‘80s back to the future approach the second time around to nation building (with the world’s oldest PM in power), is likewise doomed to failure.

    Singapore has 'alternative sources' for eggs: AVA says after Malaysia warns may limit exports

    Malaysia seafood export limits 'not likely to have significant impact' on Singapore supply: AVA [Channel NewAsia]

    Ultimately, due to Malaysian choices, trade between Singapore and Malaysia will not grow in a healthy manner. Singapore has had a food security plan since the 1980s and any reduction of trade in a specific area, like egges or seafood due to Malaysian choice will hurt Malaysia more. Beyond food, visitor arrivals in Malaysia for 2018 stood at 25.8 million, tourism minister Datuk Mohamaddin Ketapi said. This marks the eighth straight year that the country has failed to hit tourist arrival targets, which for 2018 was 26.4 million visitors. Malaysia attributed 2018’s lower-than-expected numbers to a 15 per cent drop in the number of Singaporean tourists.

    BTW, under the May 2018 agreement between Malaysia (with Pakatan Harapan in power) and Singapore (with the People’s Action Party in power), the express service of the high speed rail (HSR) is expected to start by 1 Jan 2031 instead of 31 Dec 2026. Malaysia will also have to pay abortive costs amounting to about S$15 million before the end of January 2019 for suspending the project. Additionally, if Malaysia does not proceed with the project by 31 May 2020, it will also bear the agreed costs incurred by Singapore in fulfilling the HSR Bilateral Agreement, according to a joint statement by both countries on the matter. Read more at KL-Singapore HSR: What you need to know
     
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  14. OPSSG

    OPSSG Super Moderator Staff Member

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    On the one hand, while the foreign ministers of both Malaysia and Singapore are theoretically meeting on 8 Jan 2019 to try to resolve the bilateral dispute, Johor Chief Minister Osman Sapian made a visit to the Pedoman to inflame the dispute over our port waters around Jurong. In fact, as many as five Malaysian government vessels have been seen in Singapore territorial waters, in the wake of the useless meeting between Singapore and Malaysia's foreign affairs ministers. Johor Chief Minister Osman also posted photos on Facebook showing his visit on board the vessel to demonstrate how stupid it is for the PAP government in Singapore to continue to work with the Malaysians.

    MFA Spokesperson's Comments in Response to Media Queries on the Postponement of the 14th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Committee for Iskandar Malaysia

    At some point in the future, a Singaporean or a Malaysian civilian vessel is going to bump into the other in the port waters around Jurong, but this should not affect the state-to-state relations of both countries. While regrettable to see the bilateral relationship frozen, I see no further need to waste more of our time talking to the Malaysian Government. Malaysia’s foreign ministry confirmed the postponement of the talks and said: “The reason for the postponement, as conveyed by Singapore vide a Diplomatic Note dated 11 January 2019 was due to the visit by YAB Dato’Osman Sapian, the Chief Minister of Johor to Johor Bahru port in Malaysian territorial waters on 9 January 2019.” The 4G leadership in government and citizens of Singapore must move forward with confidence to act in our country’s interests with a firm resolve.

    Singapore postpones annual meeting with Malaysia after Johor Menteri Besar visits vessel in Tuas waters

    Some Malaysian politicians in power are testing for resolve and think that they can win as hostile neighbours. Bersatu are mistaken to think that they can unify Malaysia by making enemies of their neighbours and their failure at governance must be shown up. 2019 is the start of a politically explosive year for Malaysia-Singapore relations. Yes, it isn’t going to be a year where everything suddenly changes in January to March. Instead, we’ll see many of the same problems we saw in 1991, and plenty of them will bleed into 2020 as well.
    Edit: After Dr M became Malaysia’s Prime Minister in 1981, he embarked upon bringing Islam into Malaysia’s government. He opened an Islamic university, started an Islamic banking sector, strengthened Islamic jurisprudence and centralized Federal Islamic affairs under the Prime Minister’s Department. Thirty-eight years later, that has created an unassailable Islamic bureaucracy that is independent of the executive branch, with their own sources of funds in addition to federal and state budget allocations. Elected governments, even under a new reformist Pakatan Harapan coalition that drove out the United Malays National Organization and the component parties of the Barisan Nasional, do not dare to cut down the size of the Islamic bureaucracy due to the potential political outcry.

    Israeli sources are far more negative on Malaysia’s trajectory. Dr M is pro-Iran and pro-Hamas too — which is in essence anti-American. Two faced behaviour is typical of the Malaysian Government under Dr M - which is why Singapore’s sharing of intelligence with Malaysia needs safeguards. On the one hand, Malaysian Governmental policies encourage visa free travel from Gulf countries and Iran (making it a transit point for proxies of Iran and other supporters of terrorism), on the other hand their intelligence services cooperate with Western intelligence services. Like their in-bound travel policies, Malaysia’s:

    (i) attempts to grow relations with Iran (with their Defence Minister Mohamad Sabu and Iran’s Defence and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami meeting in Iran from 26 April 2019 to 1 May 2019 to fine tune bilateral defense cooperation);

    (ii) condemning of Israel, offering of scholarships to Palestinians in Malaysia with Khalid expressing his gratitude to Dr Mahathir at a press conference after the meeting for welcoming the Hamas delegation and standing with the Palestinians against the “Israeli occupation”; and

    (iii) using of Islam for political purpose and making it a criteria for promotion in their civil service for the last 20 to 30 years - that creates a big pool of people believe and support Jihad against other ethnic groups,
    will have unintended consequences. For example, the death of fireman Muhammad Adib has become a rallying call for some Malaysian Muslims, including those in opposition parties, who feel his death at the carpark of a Hindu temple has not been addressed by the government. Muhammad Adib was critically injured in the early morning of 27 Nov 2018, after he and his team members responded to an emergency call at the Seafield Sri Maha Mariamman Temple in Subang Jaya, where a riot was taking place. Inspector-General of Police Abdul Hamid said the suspects - a Malaysian, two Rohingya and an Indonesian - were detained in a special operation by the Counter Terrorism Division (E8) in Terengganu and the Klang Valley between 5 to 7 May 2019.

    Keep in mind that Iran proxies set off a series of explosions in Bangkok that occurred on 14 February 2012, injuring five people. Thai authorities said that the bombings were a botched attempt by Iranian nationals to assassinate Israeli diplomats. Several Iranians were arrested and charged for the attacks, one of whom was badly injured. Not sure if Malaysian attempts to improve relations with Iran will increase further tension with Thailand and Singapore, when a terror attack occurs in our countries and investigations trace it to Malaysia as a staging area. In Singapore, since 1991 we have been seriously trying to keep terrorism at bay - the most likely source of bombs and weapons used for any such attack in Thailand or Singapore will be staged in Malaysia.

    In Malaysia, they are cultivating supporters of political Islam, in the aftermath of the Christchurch massacre on 15 March 2019. There is growing concern that it could set off violence among different religious communities in Indonesia, particularly if IS’ call for vengeance is acted on by its following (See: Avenging Christchurch Terror: Indonesian Militant Responses | RSIS and Three militants of 'wolf pack' cell nabbed - Nation | The Star Online ) and spread further to Malaysia. The three militants, wanted by Malaysian police in connection with the "wolf pack" cell, which was also busted in May 2019, have been detained. The Inspector-General of Police said the men - two Malaysians and an Indonesian - were arrested by the Counter Terrorism Division in Kedah and Selangor on Tuesday, 14 May 2019.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
  15. Dook

    Dook New Member

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    Stay good friends with the US, UK, and Australia. Have your military leaders work out secret scenarios where you are invaded by Malaysia and find out what help those other friendly countries could give you and how quickly it would arrive. The US, UK, and Australia will likely help you if another country is the aggressor as long as it's not China. Have all healthy males between the ages of 18 and 50 in the military reserves.

    Singapore can be invaded very quickly with Malaysian tanks coming over the bridge and causeway or with Russian amphibious assault vehicles crossing the strait. You absolutely have to know the attack is coming. You should have video camera's on the bridge and causeway and monitor traffic constantly from a secure military headquarters. A sneak attack can wipe out most of your equipment before you mobilize. Always have a good portion of your forces on duty including at night and holidays.

    Focus on quality equipment, update your equipment often. Always have better equipment than your neighbors, especially tanks, submarines, and drones. Have a plan to quickly blow up the bridge to Malaysia and to somehow block the causeway. Artillery and mortar teams are likely to have very limited roles in an invasion unless you are willing to totally destroy the city so train and equip those troops the same as infantry.

    Singapore has 96 Leopard 2 tanks, so that is pretty good. Try to get depleted uranium penetrator rounds if you don't already have them. The Malaysian tanks are PT-91's with dynamic armor so explosive jet blasts won't penetrate unless you destroy enough of the packets, which would take a lot of hits, but those tanks have auto loaders which are much slower than a human loader.

    Consider replacing the Matador anti-tank rocket with LAWS and Javelins.

    Train all infantry in urban fighting, how to clear houses, in addition to the regular gear provide each soldier with night vision and a LAW. Develop sentry systems with day and night or infrared video camera's that have an M16 and one or two LAWS. Some of the sentry systems might have a grenade launchers and one or two LAWS. The sentry guns could be set up around the corner of a building and operated by a soldier who is hidden. Fight defensively as much as possible. Use Predator type drones with gun pods for long range offense against enemy aircraft/helicopters at their home airfields. If you can take out their aircraft while keeping yours you increase your chance of winning.

    Train the Apache helicopter pilots to land on navy ships and refuel/rearm quickly, day and at night with night vision. Train to do this with radio silence.

    Get 30 Stealth patrol boats, probably the Ghost boat design but right now they are aluminum skinned. They need 1" thick kevlar armor panels installed on the inside and they need a top turret with a .50 cal/grenade launcher like the US Marine AAV's. Also they need 2-4 harpoon missile tubes on the rear and an internal VLMS with 8, or more, hellfire missiles. The Ghost boat can carry 16 infantry so you can also use them to sneak troops behind the enemy positions.

    Use your amphibious transport docks, frigates, and corvettes to refuel/rearm attack helicopters and F-35's. Train to do this in daytime and at night without using radio's. Hide the ships out at sea and use submarines and stealth patrol boats to protect them.

    Get twenty F-35 jump jets and train them to take off from the navy ships and from secluded islands. They may overheat the decks so you might need to make some changes to the under deck. Maybe consider getting four LCAC's and build platforms on top that attack helicopters can land on to refuel/rearm out at sea.

    I would probably take one of the smaller islands and make it a very secure military base so that if someone wants to hit it they suffer a lot of damage. Have hidden underground fuel tanks, command center, food, weapons, and ammunition bunkers. Have a few tanks and significant air defense on the island. Russian air defense equipment is probably the cheapest and best for the money. On the island have stealth patrol boats with night vision, attack helicopters, Predator type drones, a few F-35's in protected hangars and have some decoy aircraft set up away from the real aircraft. You want to force them to hit that island base and make them pay heavily for it.

    Always have at least 4 aircraft on alert, pilots nearby, aircraft fueled and loaded with weapons, maybe two F-15's loaded with AMRAAM's and two F-16's with 500 lb bombs.

    Train, train, and train some more. Train just as hard at night fighting as day fighting. Give soldiers decent time off and treat the soldiers well with decent pay and benefits. Develop and sustain a good national feeling towards your military. A soldier who is defending his homeland from invasion will fight better than an invading soldier.
     
  16. OPSSG

    OPSSG Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Beyond his basic lack of comprehension of geo-political risk factors (in scenario building), it’s a struggle to educate Dook, as his suggestions lack tactical awareness and he does not understand the limitation of force employment options by the Malaysians at choke points like the Woodsland or Tuas causeways. The employment of an anti-tank guided missile platoon (with top attack missiles), a forward observer team and relevant supporting infantry assets by Singapore would make any attempt to cross a suicide charge - especially given the volume of traffic at the Causeways at any time of the day or nite. More importantly, the roads leading to the Woodsland Causeway have to pass through JB city centre - it will not be a sneak attack by the Malaysians (giving Singapore plenty of warning time). If you looked carefully, there is plenty of space, nearby on the Singapore side for defensive positions - with well hidden staging areas for reinforcements making the area highly defendable. Likewise an attempted ‘river’ crossing would not succeed with Singaporean UAVs and Apache’s providing armed overwatch.

    Despite the above, it is my hope Malaysia - Singapore do not return to the days of old again. But I am in favour of a firm push back - at regular intervals of our choosing.

    I don’t think you understand how mismatched a fight it would be for Malaysia. Singapore’s modern and combined arms army is more than 2.5 times bigger than the Malaysian Army before factoring in qualitative differences - in doctrine, equipment, mobility, force multipliers and fire support.



    Why would our tanks need depleted uranium rounds or blow up the bridge? Especially when we have significant overmatch - as an Army with multiple combined arms divisions, with motorised battalions equipped with our own 8x8 Terrex and supported by the Belrex combat support vehicle - each of these divisions are capable of forward defence. Singapore’s focus is not just on buying better weapons (which we have at every level of command, from battalion to division, in terms of TOE) but to have better training for our educated and motivated conscripts - as thinking soldiers. 3 generations of Singaporeans have served in the Singapore Army (and have been deployed to support UN missions peace support and peace enforcement missions, CTF 151, to Iraq and Afghanistan) - so we may have slightly better info than you on current and past Singaporean capabilities.



    We do not just have great Leopard 2SG TANKs, we work hard to ensure that the 170 tank crews have superior training (including company level live firing at NATO tank ranges in Germany using IIA4s). In other words, train as they would fight against enemy tank crews (and not just training for our army officers). Singapore’s tanks upgraded to the Leopard 2SG standard with the addition of an IBD Deisenroth Advanced Modular Armor Protection modular composite armor package, El-Op Commander Open Architecture Panoramic Sight and other improvements. Singapore also reportedly acquired Rheinmetall’s ADS active protection system for its Leopard 2 tanks. For the armour formation, what we don’t buy from abroad, we make (eg. Bionix and Bronoco). The Bronco was exported for use in Afghanistan by the British Army (as the Warthog). Singapore Army's next generation self-propelled (SP) artillery gun and improved all-terrain tracked carrier, designed and made by local weapons maker, Singapore Technologies. The new SP gun is likely to be a wheeled design with a 155mm and automatic projectile and charge loader mounted aft of an all-terrain chassis. The new tracked carrier is thought to be the Bronco 3 variant, which is an enlarged marque of the combat proven Warthog Bronco 2 design (the baseline Bronco used by the SAF is the Bronco 1).



    Our Chinook and Apache crews are US trained - regularly taking part in Red Flag, Crimson Talon (at Idaho) and a host of other complex combined arms exercises in the US (like Ex Forging Sabre). These are complex division level exercises (for the division strike centre) integrating LRRPs (who are commanded by junior officers that are SF trained), F-15SGs, Apaches, artillery hunting radars, HIMARS and Herion 1 UAVS - to conduct 1 pass multiple moving target strikes.

    You may want to read the thread for some basic information?



    Not sure if you understand the difference between a Matador (a section weapon, 2 per section and superior to LAW) vs twin mounted Spike ATGMS (comparable to the Javelins) on light strike vehicles for a ATGM platoon, and its supporting assets when deployed as a block force for a battalion in defence. Your post does not demonstrate situational awareness provided by higher command intel or tactical competence (which I assume the Malaysians will have).

    The SAF has deployed in support of overseas operations or contingency operations (998 in Iraq, 492 in Afghanistan and so on), capable of forward defence and is well resourced (having the largest defence budget in SE Asia) viz a viz it’s regional peers, with the ability to not only make weapons but also have limited export success.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
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  17. Dook

    Dook New Member

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    I may want to read the thread for some basic information? Right, Singapore is just so incredibly powerful and no one in the area can beat it.

    Singapore has the ability to make weapons? The Matador is okay for blowing holes in walls, not the best weapon for taking out a tank. If Singapore has the ability to make weapons why did they buy the Leopard tank from Germany and Apache helicopters and F-35's from the USA? Why didn't they just make their own?

    When they come, it's going to be a surprise at 2 am. Singapore is not going to be able to load their F-16's and F-15's with bombs and missiles in time. Do you know how long it takes to fully load out a fighter? All runways will be heavily damaged by F-18's in the first strike. All fighter aircraft and attack helicopters will be heavily damaged by enemy attack helicopters and drones and then helicopter landed troops will assault the military bases. Enemy tanks will be across the bridge and causeway in minutes to support the assault on the military bases. Enemy amphibious vehicles will come across the strait towards the airport and military airfield to support the helicopter troops. Pre-positioned artillery and enemy submarines will destroy ships in port. The reserves won't be able to get to their units in time.

    Singapore is more powerful than Malaysia but every country is succeptible to a sneak attack that destroys much of their equipment and their ability to respond, even the US.
     
  18. Preceptor

    Preceptor Super Moderator Staff Member

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    I will re-iterate OPSSG's comment about re-reading this thread for some basic information, as well as seeking outside sources to find out what Singapore has, and where some of the assets and units are based, as well as why.

    Further, read for the Forum Rules before posting again, paying attention to #'s 4 and 27 specifically.

    The tone of the post I consider to rather insulting and a portion of the commentary is either made in ignorance, or is an attempt to troll others. While ignorance can be addressed by suggesting sources that people can read to educate themselves, trolling, or attempts to troll won't be tolerated.

    To suggest that Singapore should have indigenously built their own MBT's instead of purchasing Leopard II tanks from Germany is a prime example of either ignorance or trolling. While I don't know the location or size of the production facility in Germany used to produce the Leopard II, I would imagine that it's comparable to the US Lima Tank Plant in OH, USA which is about one square km in size. Given that both the population and land area of Singapore are significantly less than either Germany or the US, just being able to allocate sufficient area for a tank plant would be a problem. There's also the very real economic considerations regarding the benefits and cost for domestic production vs. importing from a place like Germany. France, Italy and the UK all had produced modern MBT's of comparable capability to the US M1 or German Leo II, yet the total numbers ordered for the Leclerc, Ariete and Challenger II combined work out to about half of the number of Leo II's built, which means the different manufacturers would've had (or did have) trouble breaking even developing and producing the MBT. With Singapore being so much smaller and also as a consequence needing fewer MBT's, those domestic vs. import costs would have tilted even further in favor of importing. This sort of situation applies to all sorts of defense industrial that have significant developmental costs or require large areas to produce and test, or both. It's also why a number of European aerospace defense projects have actually been multi-national consortiums, because this was how a large enough order book could be established to cover the developmental and production costs, while also enabling the different nations that participated to keep elements of their defense industry involved and viable. With Singapore having just a fraction of the population, space and economy that Europe has, asking why Singapore imported specific defense vehicles and aircraft rather than building them domestically is either demonstrating a significant level of ignorance with respect to what resources are required to support the design and production of a capable vehicle, or the comment was made with the intent in provoking a response, which is trolling. I suspect the later.

    Lift up your game or you'll find your stay here a short one.
    -Preceptor
     
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  19. Dook

    Dook New Member

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    I'm betting my stay is very short. You're only shooting yourself in the foot.

    I read the posts in the thread. Here's a quick replay some of the absolutely incredible replies:

    2 - Singapore should strike first. Great answer, and the world would take the other countries side and assist them and the UN would condemn Singapore and the USN would never stop there again.

    3 - There is no best strategy because it's too complicated. So because you can't figure it out there is no answer.

    4 - No one would invade Singapore because everyone needs Singapore too much. Taking over a country allows you to control their port, their companies, and steal from the hard work of others.

    5 - To invade would require a formidable navy? Except there is a bridge and a causeway that tanks could cross in minutes and the Johor strait is not very wide so amphibious vehicles and helicopter borne troops can get across quickly.

    7 - The attack would be a seaborne invasion? Not if it comes from Malaysia it won't.

    8 - Again, why would anyone want to invade Singapore? That's not what the OP asked. And, maybe you should research history a bit?

    10 - The USN is in Singapore so no one would ever attack Singapore. 100 US sailors is not much of a deterent. MacArthur had 60,000 troops in the Philippines and he ran away after the Philippines President gave him $500,000 and he left the troops to the Bataan death march. Everyone thinks all the wars are over when they're not.

    11 - Details weapons that Singapore should get. I actually like that response, not the AIM-7 Sparrows or Hawks though. Do those even exist anymore?

    15 - Get ballistic missiles from China? You mean the ones that have an accuracy in miles, not feet, which makes them about useless as a military weapon except for use against large cities that we can't hit anymore unless we are Saddam Hussein?

    16 - This post has a tiny bit of merit.

    18 - Singapore has an air force unit in France so an attack won't take out all of Singapores military? Wow, and the air force guys in France are going to get back to Singapore to fight how exactly? Those must be some very long range aircraft with really big fuel tanks.

    19 - No one would attack Singapore without Malaysia or Indonesia getting involved. Unless Malaysia attacks. If China attacks I bet you ten bucks that Malaysia and Indonesia don't do a dam thing.

    It doesn't matter what kind of equipment you have if most of it gets destroyed in the first strike and almost every war and attack for the last 100 years has been a sneak attack: Japan attacking Russia, Germany invading France then Russia, Japan invading China, Japan attacking the US, Arab countries against Israel twice, Israel against the arab countries, Iraq against Iran, Iraq against Kuwait, ISIS attacks in Syria and Iraq, and constant arab terrorist attacks in the US and Europe, all sneak attacks.

    You guys think you are really something special in the world of strategy? Let me guess, half of you learned about strategy and weapons from playing video games and the other half of you were cooks in the Coast Guard? Right?
     
  20. Dook

    Dook New Member

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    You think it takes 1 sq km plant to produce Leopard tanks? You were a cook in the Coast Guard, right?

    You can build a tank in large home garage. If you need to mass produce hundreds or thousands of them, then the 1 sq km plant makes more sense and that plant can produce other vehicles after the tank production has ended. But you're sooo much smarter than I am Coastie.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2019