Ozzy Blizzard
New Member
I am more inclined with the KFIR, the Panavia Tornado, the Harrier (my favorite), and may be the F16.
Both of these are platfomrs everyone is trying to get rid of.
I am more inclined with the KFIR, the Panavia Tornado, the Harrier (my favorite), and may be the F16.
I am more inclined with the KFIR, the Panavia Tornado, the Harrier (my favorite), and may be the F16.
No spare Harriers. The remaining users are having to manage airframe hours carefully to keep them in service until their replacements arrive.I am not... I am actually just gathering opinion about the MiG23 as the PAF's MRF.
I am more inclined with the KFIR, the Panavia Tornado, the Harrier (my favorite), and may be the F16.
No spare Harriers. The remaining users are having to manage airframe hours carefully to keep them in service until their replacements arrive.
Thailand, several years ago was engaged in talks with the UK government and BAE Systems for the RN's Sea Harriers, as a replacement for the RTN's Matador fleet which is grounded.
Which was very odd indeed, since they knew before they started negotiating that AMRAAM couldn't be sold by the UK, & if they want it, they have to ask the Yanks, & they'd already decided to upgrade the Sea Harriers they already had with EL/M-2032 & Derby, & could easily have extended the programme to cover the ex-RN SHARS. Indeed, it seems to have been assumed by the UK that India would do that. Blue Vixen might be better than EL/M-2032, but the latter is a good radar, & there are advantages to having the same radar & missiles on the entire fleet.So did the Indians IIRC, but without Blue Vixen FCR & AMRAAM they turned it down.
But that was then, & this is now. The RNs SHARs are now all grounded, & there are only a few still in existence which could be restored to flying condition. They aren't a sane option for anyone except an existing Harrier operator.Thailand, several years ago was engaged in talks with the UK government and BAE Systems for the RN's Sea Harriers, as a replacement for the RTN's Matador fleet which is grounded.
Both of these are platfomrs everyone is trying to get rid of.
Not the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia because they will be upgrading some 80 Panavia Tornado IDS and ADV at a cost of $4.66 billion to serve their Air Force until 2020.
The Panavia Tornado and the Harrier would have been a good choice for the Philippine Air Force because of their ability to take-off and land over short distances. The PAF maintains a small airstrip in the Spratly Islands and some areas in Mindanao where Air Support is much needed.
But again the KFIR could be the better choice if the ratio is indeed 2 KFIRs : 1 F16
In my humble oppinion, PAF should aim for F 16 only. Forget about KFIR.
Look, PAF, is an Air Force with limited budget. Ozzy says that TNI AU was a bad example for an Air Force on maintaning aircraft. In one side I agree, but on the other side I think TNI AU was a good example on an Air Force with limited budget (just like PAF) will face much difficulty when facing with maintance problem with too many Aircraft types or acquiaring Aircraft only based on acquisition costs and not maintanance costs.
Forget what Saudi Air Force can do..Forget what Singaporean can do..those are the examples of Air Forces with Huge Budget.
An Air Force with limited budget (like TNI AU and PAF) should focus only with limited types of Aircraft and only acquired aircraft with long term maintance costs availability. Streamlining the number of Aircraft types will enable you to maintan larger number of Aircraft on each types thus provide easier logistics (which in the end lower maintanance costs).
PAF has one thing that TNI AU does not have...constant readiness of support from US. If you asked people in TNI AU, they will say, that realistically they do not want to have SU 27/30. However since the relations with US is not something that in long term can be guaranteed, then Flankers is the answered to keep relative stable fleet readiness.
However this choice will increased the costs significantly, thus this's one of the reasons the planned fleet rejuvenations has been delayed for some time.
Look at the example of TNI AU, and you can see by maintaining F 5, Hawk 53/100/200, OV-10, F 16, and Su 27/30 only resulted with fleet readiness in average of only 50%. Sometimes is less than 30% in the case of F 5 and OV 10.
In the future many TNI AU brass says that the want to focus only to SU 27/30 and F 16. Still many temptations on getting other Aircraft with less acquisition costs still there. Hopefully they've learned that maintanance costs is more important than acquisition costs in getting fleet readiness on avarege of more than 80% like what any Air Force should have.
Again, many examples already there. F-16 was the cheapest fighters to maintain for foreseable future. It's better PAF will have 12 F 16 then 24 Kfir, but with good relations with US and the readiness of F 16 spare parts and logistics supply, you can have better probability that those 12 F 16 will have 80% readiness while the 24 Kfir perhaps only less than 50% readiness.
That’s the assumption I have to question, will the disparity in maintenance costs really lead to any real difference in availability rates? You assume an F-16 will be cheaper to maintain, but as I stated earlier the J-79's global parts pool is extensive so supporting the engine will be cheap, supporting the avionics and other elements should be as simple as a straightforward maintenance contract with IAI. So how is Kfir so expensive to maintain? Ecuador and Colombia don’t exactly have Western European defence budgets and both are more than happy supporting the Kfir.
Ozzy, I'm still trying to find some reliable data on F-16 and Kfir maintanances cost comparison. So far has not found one.
However:
1. OPSSG already show sources from Taiwan that clearly stated that costs of maintanances for F 16 A/B was three times cheaper than Mirage 2000. I don't think Kfir will be substantially cheaper to maintain than Mirage 2000.
2. I.m not going to put Flankers as comparisons, since verybody knows they are much more expensives to maintain than F-16. However I do have seen the statement from our then ministry of defences on why he refused Qatar offer on Mirage F-1 (sorry in Bahasa and printed in magazines, and I'm still trying to found on line sources). In Sense it's due to maintanance costs. In fact he even reinstated to the Air Force brass, that if they still want those Mirage F-1 then they have to choose between F-16 or Mirage F-1, since the maintanances budget clearly
can not cope to handle both. The Air Force choose to stay with F-16 due to cheaper to maintain.
3. Also F-16 already being used significantly with Singapore, and Thailand, and even us our Air Forces already stated that even with continue purchase of Flankers, we still in the future add more F 16 to the TNI AU inventories. I know for one thing that from time to time TNI AU borrow spare parts from Singapore Air Forces before the spare parts they order can come (and then redirect back to Singapore as replacements from Singapore spare parts). In our case this mostly for C-130 spare parts, however in theory it can also be conducted for F-16. In sense having simmilar aircraft to your ASEAN neighbours can also help your logistics.
I'm suggesting for PAF to take F-16 with already have MLU upgrade. Thus it's will be comparable in airframe hours to zero hours Kfir that you've mentioned (which I believe this's from Batch of Kfirs that will be throughlly upgraded by Israel before selling, since I don't see any real zero hours Kfir except those upgrade versions in Israel inventories).
I know it will be difficult for Philipines to found second hand F-16 which recently just has MLU upgrade, however it's not conceivable that US can provide second hand F-16 (batch 25 or 30), then conducts thourough MLU, which in sense will provide PAF with comparable airframe hours with upgraded Kfir.
Again I'm never suggesting F 16 will be cheaper to acquaire then Kfir, however so far from what I read on maintanances costs issue of F 16 vs Mirage 2000 or Mirage F 1, I still tend to believe a MLU second hand F 16 will be cheaper to maintain in long run then upgraded Kfir.
And for limited budget Air Forces like PAF, long run maintannaces cost will be more important then acquisition cost.
They're upgrading IDS only. Not ADV. The ADV are being retired, right now.Not the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia because they will be upgrading some 80 Panavia Tornado IDS and ADV at a cost of $4.66 billion to serve their Air Force until 2020..
While in general I agree with what you've posted, you're comparing stored Kfirs after being zero-houred & upgraded to Kfir 2000 configuration with off the shelf stored F-16s. Any customer would have to pay for the rework & upgrade of the Kfirs, as they would for F-16s & Mirage F.1s - but such a rework & upgrade could be done to both types, e.g. the ASTRAC Mirage F.1 upgrade for Morocco.Additionally I honestly doubt 3000+ hour F-16C Block 30's will either prove cheaper to maintain or have better availability rates than zero hour Kfirs.
P.S. 12x Kfir 2000 would provide more capability than 12x F-16 Bock 30's, thus you wouldn't need 24x.
IIRC IAI offered the Kfir 2000 with an option for a full refurbishment; they replaced over 60% of the parts on the airframe, basically anything that could conceivably degrade. These Kfirs literally would be zero hour airframes. AFAIK the MLU program was not of that magnitude.
But you're making that judgement without any information on what supporting the Kfir would actually be like. Right now there are 3 states which are economically comparable to the Philippines who are happily supporting the Kfir; they are even buying more of them (over Mirage F1's). That tells you something.
As important as thru life costs are they are only a single element you need to consider; I’m sure a P-51 would be cheap as hell (they could produce it domestically) but that doesn’t mean you would buy one. Thru life cost is not more important than acquisition cost; they should both be budgeted for at the outset. In order for one platform you have to weigh any difference in acquisition cost to any projected savings throughout the life of the platform in order to determine what the best value option is and then weigh that against actual warfighting capability (including availability rates).
I'm not arguing PAF should buy Kfir over an F-16 derivative (it really depends on the particulars) however I don’t think you can dismiss the Kfir out of hand.
WE CAN DO THIS WHILE WAITING FOR OUR PRE-ORDERED MAIN AIR SUPERIORITY MRF's!!!
Not the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia because they will be upgrading some 80 Panavia Tornado IDS and ADV at a cost of $4.66 billion to serve their Air Force until 2020.
The Panavia Tornado and the Harrier would have been a good choice for the Philippine Air Force because of their ability to take-off and land over short distances. The PAF maintains a small airstrip in the Spratly Islands and some areas in Mindanao where Air Support is much needed.
But again the KFIR could be the better choice if the ratio is indeed 2 KFIRs : 1 F16
Yesterday's local newspaper reported that the current Philippine defense secretary is stepping-up efforts to acquire Huey Cobra night attack helicopters from Israel before he resigns in June 30, 2010. This would allow an open door with Israel in bidding/negotiating/acquiring the KFIR for the Philippine Air Force.