Philippine Air Force Discussions and Updates

[Pragmatist]

I disagree. The Philipines is not a failed state, nor is it close to being a failed state. Let me itemise the general points raised above, and state clearly where the flaws are:

1. The Phillipines workforce is large with an excellent command of English, a heritage they gained when the US imprinted it's culture and language in the country, after 1898. By then, the more developed regions in the Philipines was sufficient exposed, advanced and raised in Spanish Civilisation, given the firm spanish presence that lasted 500 years. The Missions left behind a solid value system, and a civilized nation state by the time the Americans arrived. Added to that, the Filipino workforce is International and not only domestic. Malaysia in comparison, is insular and lacks a solid english education system unlike the more robust one in the Philipines and to a certain extent, Singapore. In a globalized world, this handicap is a very severe limitation.

2. Unemployment is an issue throughout the world and not limited to the Phillipines. Again, Filipino labour is strong at home and overseas. Remittances sent back to the Phillipines is a major income flow amounting to 60 billion USD in the last 3 years, this is an advantage. There is no other country in ASEAN that can export and receive this much through it's human populations in comparison to the Phillipines. A muslim child raised in Mindanao would graduate with a strong command of English and would be employable throughout the world, but how employable is a Malaysian or an Indonesian in the world economy without English?

3. Comparing political systems is contentious subject. There is no merit in making sweeping statements about the Phillipines and it's political system, republican by the way, like Singapore and Indonesia. Are you saying that the Phillipines is in need of a feudalistic Sultan to beat and kick his peasants about? I am sorry, the Phillipines is past that sort of medieval practices long ago.

4. Warlords are common everywhere in the world. SIngling out the Phillipines is wrong. The US had it's Mafias and Clans, Malaysia has it's chinese triads, Indonesia has it's own enforcers, so really, this statement is going nowhere. Thailand has armed Warlords, as I am sure Malaysia and Indonesia has too, what with Nordin Top and Jemaah Islamiyah being those who have wrought destruction in the Philipines.

5. Every nightclub in the world is visited by rakes, riff raff, the desolate and the desperate. Malaysia is no different.

6. The navy is there for transport and logistics. Modernity is never an issue for ASEAN countries, it is how the assets are employed. For the southern insurgency, the Army, Navy and Air Force has contained the rebellions and choked the flow of violence. With development, the rebels will return to society and help rebuild the Phillipines.

I too feel that Malaysians deserve better from their government, but this is not the forum for such idle talk.

Many thanks

 

[STURM]

And many thanks to you.

I too feel that Malaysians deserve better from their government, but this is not the forum for such idle talk. Many thanks

I agree the forum is not a place for such talk but if you noticed, I was asked to elaborate.

The Phillipines workforce is large with an excellent command of English,

Did I dispute that? You're only reinforcing what I've already said. The point I was trying to make is unlike most of its neighbours the Philippines has a large population base with a good command of English but is not doing well economically.

Are you saying that the Phillipines is in need of a feudalistic Sultan to beat and kick his peasants about? I am sorry, the Phillipines is past that sort of medieval practices long ago.

I didn't say that and I made no statements about a different kind of political system needed in the Philippines nor of ''feudalistic Sultans''.

There is no merit in making sweeping statements about the Phillipines and it's political system, republican by the way, like Singapore and Indonesia. Every nightclub in the world is visited by rakes, riff raff, the desolate and the desperate. Malaysia is no different. .

I can assure you, Malaysian night clubs dont have metal detectors though they do have their share of ''rakes, riff raff, the desolate and the desperate''. And what ''sweeping statements'' did I make about the Philippines?

A muslim child raised in Mindanao would graduate with a strong command of English and would be employable throughout the world, but how employable is a Malaysian or an Indonesian in the world economy without English?.

And the point you're trying to make is...? I was under the impression that to succeed in a globalised world anyone would need a strong command of English.

SIngling out the Phillipines is wrong. The US had it's Mafias and Clans, Malaysia has it's chinese triads, Indonesia has it's own enforcers, so really, this statement is going nowhere. Thailand has armed Warlords, as I am sure Malaysia and Indonesia has too, what with Nordin Top and Jemaah Islamiyah being those who have wrought destruction in the Philipines.

And taking my statements out of context is also wrong. I didn't single out the Philippines
and made it very clear my intention was not to put anyone down. There is a vast difference between organised crime, terrorists and warlords with private armies. It appears at present that the only people ''who have wrought destruction in the Philipines'' are local and most of the destruction caused by Nordin Top and JI was in Indonesia.

P.S. BTW, you haven't answered my question from another thread, out of curiosity where are you from?

 

[Pragmatist]

Actually there is nothing to comment on. I suggest we remain with the PAF thread and not press on with any perceived bickering. I am certain that would detract from other issues

Lastly, In response to your point about the JI, you would find that this terrorist organisation is part of an wider SEA umbrella, and it's doctrine is Islamic domination throughout. That is why it has always had a presence in Mindanao, via its collegiates there, but the Mindanao rebellion is small, local and now ebbing away from a more hardline Islamist stance. Principally those in the southern phillipines, via different groups, are broadly separatist minded. That is why JI's presence was limited and turned over. Ultimately the view is that the JI was a fifth column of the Indonesian Security Apparatus, that is why Nordin Top was killed off many years ago, and not recently as the Indonesians claimed.

 

[OPSSG]

The only dangerous area in the Philippines is in the south which is in Mindanao. I been living in Mindanao for the first 15 years of my life then move out to Cebu. The rebels & armed groups bothers me a lot, they will knock on your door asking for some cash.

We are off topic but I thought that your slightly misleading reply needed a response.

I can understand your perspective as a Filipino about the separatists insurgent groups being a localized threat but to say that the problem is limited only to Mindanao is just not true. I don't mean offence but if you look at the activities of Abu Sayyaf (click here to read more) alone, it would be clear that they have acted in other parts of the Philippines and beyond.

Let us just deal with a few examples. The Abu Sayyaf is thought to be responsible for the bombing of Superferry 14, off the coast of Manila on 24 February 2004. They have also acted in traditionally safe areas like Palawan (and beyond just the Sulu Archipelago). In 2000 and 2001, its members have also crossed the Sulu Sea to the dive resort of Sipadan and to Pandanan island, Malaysia for multiple episodes of kidnapping. So I don't think that the danger is ONLY limited to Mindanao.

 

[flanx]

@STURM

Thats not the definition of close failed state, It's like comparing Philippines to Somalia.

Let's start with what defines a State or an independent country.

• Has space or territory which has internationally recognized boundaries (boundary disputes are OK). - checked
• Has people who live there on an ongoing basis. - checked
• Has economic activity and an organized economy. A country regulates foreign and domestic trade and issues money. - checked
• Has the power of social engineering, such as education. - checked
• Has a transportation system for moving goods and people. - checked
• Has a government which provides public services and police power. - checked
• Has sovereignty. No other State should have power over the country's territory. - checked
• Has external recognition. A country has been "voted into the club" by other countries. - checked

How come it is a close-failed state when all the basic structure of a state is functioning.


The best defination of the Philippines would be a "corrupt state".



@OPSSG
The hostages & kidnappings in the resort were long time ago, security measures has been implemented since then.
And the Abus had been reduced & limited to Southern Mindanao right now since their top leaders had been killed.

If we go to the link on your post:

• In August 2002, Abu Sayyaf kidnapped six Filipino Jehovah's Witnesses and beheaded two of them. Mindanao

• In October 2002, Abu Sayyaf was blamed for a bomb explosion near a Philippine military base, killing one U.S. serviceman. Mindanao

• In February 2005, Abu Sayyaf claimed responsibility for bombings in Manila and two other cities, killing eight and wounding 150. - Manila

• In November 2007, the group is suspected to have detonated a bomb that killed a Philippine congressman and three of his staffers. Manila - Not true, he was assassinated by the Gov’t, he is a Muslim congressman of Basilan and known supporter of Abu Sayaff.

• A plot to assassinate President Gloria Arroyo was discovered and foiled by Philippine security officials in February 2008.

• In January 2009, three Red Cross officials were kidnapped by Abu Sayyaf. Two of the three have since been released. Mindanao

The area mostly is either Mindanao or Manila. The last time the Abus bombed Manila is almost 5 years ago. Honestly the danger areas of the Phippines is far more safer than Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan & Nothern Caucasus.

 

[Ananda]

Lastly, In response to your point about the JI, you would find that this terrorist organisation is part of an wider SEA umbrella, and it's doctrine is Islamic domination throughout. That is why it has always had a presence in Mindanao, via its collegiates there, but the Mindanao rebellion is small, local and now ebbing away from a more hardline Islamist stance. Principally those in the southern phillipines, via different groups, are broadly separatist minded. That is why JI's presence was limited and turned over. Ultimately the view is that the JI was a fifth column of the Indonesian Security Apparatus, that is why Nordin Top was killed off many years ago, and not recently as the Indonesians claimed.

This's PAF thread, so I don't want to talk about JI in her...however
what you saying in here about JI being 5th coluoum of our secirity forces is completely rubbish. And Nurdin Top already killed long time ago..?? Come on..This is International forum..you beter have something solid to back that..or you are in danger turning to just another 'trashy news paper' fuelling on the uncorfirmed gossips and paranoia...

 

[gf0012-aust]

All, time to get back on topic. This is about PAF. its not a thread about politics and idealogical definition issues.

 

[STURM]

Thats not the definition of close failed state, It's like comparing Philippines to Somalia.

Has space or territory which has internationally recognized boundaries (boundary disputes are OK). - checked
Has people who live there on an ongoing basis. - checked
Has sovereignty. No other State should have power over the country's territory. - checked
Has external recognition. A country has been "voted into the club" by other countries. - checked

How come it is a close-failed state when all the basic structure of a state is functioning.

The best defination of the Philippines would be a "corrupt state". checked.

Some of the attributes you provided also apply to Somalia though Somalia is clearly a failed state unlike the Philippines. I made no previous comprison to Somalia though. - checked

But as gf00 12-aus rightly mentioned, we have veered off topic and I'll leave it at that.

Ultimately the view is that the JI was a fifth column of the Indonesian Security Apparatus, that is why Nordin Top was killed off many years ago, and not recently as the Indonesians claimed.

There are those who say that Elvis is still alive.

 

[Pragmatist]

Reading earlier comments, we can see that the PAF is clearly not in need of further expenditure. It seems that the PAF as it is can do the job at hand, seeing that most of it's recent combat action, has been against, internal armed groups and separatist bands.

Is it fair to say that the PAF is more than adequate? After all there is no need to "buy a sledgehammer to crush a nut" pardon the saying. The Broncos and S211 Trainers are more than enough.

 

[OPSSG]

@flanx, thanks. You have just proven my point despite your rather long reply.

Is it fair to say that the PAF is more than adequate? After all there is no need to "buy a sledgehammer to crush a nut" pardon the saying. The Broncos and S211 Trainers are more than enough.

@Pragmatist, your analogy is either very misleading or just plain wrong. A F-16 with a targeting pod and PGMs is a precision air power instrument capable of surgical strike in comparison to the S211. It is the S211 that is a blunt CAS instrument. The OV-10A Broncos (along with their current requirement for 14 attack helicopters) are slow movers and have a different role to play viz a viz fast movers like F-16s. Your reply demonstrates a certain lack of understanding. Let us help you see the light. However, I know you are so going to be tempted to give a smart reply. My advice - don't. Think and read before typing. Otherwise, I can assure you that you are going to dig yourself deeper into the hole you are in. From your responses thus far, you are demonstrating an inability to effectively process information on defence matters.

In 2007, the PAF has also lost a S211 when they were using it to patrol the Spratlys. I've not tracked their loss rate but these jets are not used for the role they were intended for. Further, they may not be maintained to first world standards due to funding limitations - so I would say that the PAF needs more money, be it to buy jets or even just for maintenance.

I believe they are doing the best they can with the limited resources they have been given - so don't be-grudge the Bulldogs of the 7th Tactical Fighter Squadron their due funding to perform the roles they have been asked to do. Here's a video of PAF's S211s in action for your viewing pleasure:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEZxRz0CL84]S211 jets airstrikes in Mindanao[/ame]

The Bulldogs are patriots for choosing to stay in the PAF when they can easily find a job with an airline. Give them proper equipment so that they have do their job properly. From the video you can see that they are required to come in very low to deliver their dumb bombs on target and that is very dangerous - not just for them but also for the troops on the ground. In jungles all ordinance has to be delivered danger close when troops are in contact. And PGMs are the way to go for CAS. Even in the video, you will see that they are delivering ordinance in open areas and in the day, which is a reflection of their limitations.

Edit: And unless you can tell me that fighting will only occur in the day, only in open areas and that insurgent tactics will not change - the PAF need better tools and the PAF current inventory of aircraft, which includes amongst other things the S211s, just can't cut it (especially in the mid to long term).

In case you don't realize, all insurgents who have survived are constantly adapting their tactics (and a stupid insurgent who does not adapt would have been killed). At one moment, the Philippine military might be engaged in high-intensity combat. At the next moment, they might be handing out relief supplies. Finally, at some point, they might be separating warring factions.

In any war, it is natural for combatants to adapt to changing circumstances hence it is incumbent for the Philippine Military and the PAF to adapt so that they can strike at a insurgent at a time or place and in a manner for which he is unprepared. And new equipment will surely help the PAF develop a new range of responses so as to keep the insurgents off balance.

BTW, please let us know how old you are, so that other forum participants like Sturm and me (despite our cordial disagreements) can pitch the replies at a level that you can understand. Your cooperation will be much appreciated.

 

[STURM]

I'm sure that many in DT have already seen this but for those who haven't here it is.
It's a very interesting and detailed account about the PAF.

Philippines since 1945

 

[Pragmatist]

Merry Christmas OPSSG

As I have said, the PAF is more than adequately equipped to deal with "asymmetric warfare" or "guerilla warfare" in Mindanao, Jolo, Sulu and Basilan. For this type of internal conflict, there is no need for F16s, just good governance, a belief in law and order, specific development projects and SOCOM operations. In that sense, please read the extract below:

The initial funding instalment, of an eventual $2 billion to purchase 100 Light Attack Armed Reconnaissance (LAAR) aircraft, has been received by the US Air Force, for asymmetric operations like those being carried out in Iraq and Afghanistan. LAAR is required to become operational in 2013, one year after initial deliveries start. The chosen type may be a propeller-driven aircraft, but whichever type is selected will be fitted with hardpoints for light support weapons and will carry a targeting pod, making it capable of independently engaging targets.

Possible contenders include the AirTractor AT802U (a modified crop duster), Alenia Aermacchi M-346, Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano, Hawker Beechcraft AT-6L and Pilatus PC-6 Porter. Boeing’s OV-10(X) Bronco proposal, based on the twin-engine, twin-boom forward air controller of the Vietnam era—for which no production facility has even been chosen—now appears an unlikely candidate. The aircraft will be required to have a rapid engagement capability, in order to reduce the sensor-to-shooter timeline. The LAAR aircraft will also operate as a forward air controller (FAC), with voice, video and data-links. LAAR is being procured under the OA-X programme and should have significantly reduced operating costs—required to be around $1,000 per flying hour. For comparison, an F-16C fighter costs $7,750 per flying hour while the F-15E costs $44,000.

As you can see, it is considerably more expensive to fly an F16 over Mindanao than it is to fly an OV10 Bronco. Any munitions used in specific areas to meet the threat, is within AFP doctrine for guerilla warfare. After all, a bomb, in whatever shape it is employed or how it is delivered, is for psychological purposes.

As for any external threats, the Philippines ratified the Mutual Defence Treaty with the USA in 1951.

Many Thanks for your informative suggestions. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

 

[sunshin3]

The initial funding instalment, of an eventual $2 billion to purchase 100 Light Attack Armed Reconnaissance (LAAR) aircraft, has been received by the US Air Force, for asymmetric operations like those being carried out in Iraq and Afghanistan. LAAR is required to become operational in 2013, one year after initial deliveries start. The chosen type may be a propeller-driven aircraft, but whichever type is selected will be fitted with hardpoints for light support weapons and will carry a targeting pod, making it capable of independently engaging targets.

Possible contenders include the AirTractor AT802U (a modified crop duster), Alenia Aermacchi M-346, Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano, Hawker Beechcraft AT-6L and Pilatus PC-6 Porter. Boeing’s OV-10(X) Bronco proposal, based on the twin-engine, twin-boom forward air controller of the Vietnam era—for which no production facility has even been chosen—now appears an unlikely candidate. The aircraft will be required to have a rapid engagement capability, in order to reduce the sensor-to-shooter timeline. The LAAR aircraft will also operate as a forward air controller (FAC), with voice, video and data-links. LAAR is being procured under the OA-X programme and should have significantly reduced operating costs—required to be around $1,000 per flying hour. For comparison, an F-16C fighter costs $7,750 per flying hour while the F-15E costs $44,000.

Merry Christmas to all members in this forum.

Hi Pragmatist, I think you may have misunderstood the article that you used to support your point. What is applicable to the USAF is not applicable to the infinitely less capable PAF.

For example, you quoted that these possible contenders (to replace the OV-10(X) Bronco) are to be used as forward air controllers. Do you know what that means? It means that the slow mover will fly in circles and provide additional targeting information to USAF's fast movers like the F-16s and F-15s in support of troops in contact. This means that they don't work alone and their roles under USAF's concept of ops is supplemental to fast jets. What you are saying in your replies to OPSSG is that Philippines does not need fast movers. But don't you see that your quote supports the idea that the USAF uses both fast movers and slow movers? In effect, you have given an example that you have not understood and that does not demonstrate your point.

I think at the moment, you are talking at cross purposes with the replies given by the others. It would be best if you consider reading the replies more carefully.

 

[OPSSG]

Merry X'mas and a happy new year.

As I have said, the PAF is more than adequately equipped to deal with "asymmetric warfare" or "guerilla warfare" in Mindanao, Jolo, Sulu and Basilan.

Define "adequately equipped to deal with."

I have been making the point that PAF has been making do with what they have but I cannot in good conscience say that the PAF has become more capable. On the basis of my previous posts, I believe I have shown that there are long running critical short falls in PAF abilities and equipment that has taken away from PAF's capabilities. Objectively speaking, since the people power revolution of 1986 to the present, the PAF has lost significant capabilities. A case in point would be the retirement of your F-5s without a replacement in 2005.

For this type of internal conflict, there is no need for F16s, just good governance, a belief in law and order, specific development projects and SOCOM operations. In that sense, please read the extract below.

Define the 'need' for CAS. Ask yourself what does CAS do? Edit: We are taking about aircraft in a strike role and not in an air superiority role, especially given that the F-16 is a multi-role aircraft capable of strike missions.

Increasing PAF war fighting capabilities without improving local governance is futile. However, good governance should not and does not have to be achieved only at the expense of PAF's capabilities. I can understand why the F-5s were retired but not to aspire to have replacements planned in 2011 or thereabouts is not responsible.

LAAR is required to become operational in 2013, one year after initial deliveries start. The chosen type may be a propeller-driven aircraft, but whichever type is selected will be fitted with hardpoints for light support weapons and will carry a targeting pod, making it capable of independently engaging targets.

Do you mean to tell me that the OV-10A Bronco or the S211s in service with the PAF have or will advanced targeting/ISR pods like the proposed LAAR?

I suspect that you don't fully understand the example you gave.

The LAAR aircraft will also operate as a forward air controller (FAC), with voice, video and data-links. LAAR is being procured under the OA-X programme and should have significantly reduced operating costs—required to be around $1,000 per flying hour. For comparison, an F-16C fighter costs $7,750 per flying hour while the F-15E costs $44,000.

When you have a tooth ache, going to the dentist for a tooth ache is expensive. And taking a pair of pliers to pull out your own teeth is a possible alternative. Do you advocate that? The right tool for the right job. Edit: BTW, operating costs alone is not a primary driver of requirements, rather 'requirements' set by the USAF drive their procurement, which in the case of LAAR is ISR needs in theatre.

Your response is so typical of your deficiency in understanding the role of different types of aircraft in providing CAS. You are citing cost figures without understanding the difference in roles. The USAF LAAR is meant to work with F-16s and F-15Es in USAF strike aircraft inventory. The LAAR requirement does not replace the USAF requirements for fast movers.

As you can see, it is considerably more expensive to fly an F16 over Mindanao than it is to fly an OV10 Bronco. Any munitions used in specific areas to meet the threat, is within AFP doctrine for guerilla warfare. After all, a bomb, in whatever shape it is employed or how it is delivered, is for psychological purposes.

Not a useful way of looking at it. In essence, what you are saying that a Dumb bomb = a PGM. And you have a pattern of making statements that I can't make sense of. This is why I keep asking: How old are you?

I'm sorry but I really have not had a meaningful discussion on this topic with you (there are limits to my ability and willingness to explain). I wish you good luck and I'll just let other forum members respond to your posts on this topic. Edit: I don't want to offend you but I have to indicate that I DO NOT agree with some of what you say.

 

[Pragmatist]

Hi there, dear members, happy new year and season's greetings

Dear OPSSG - You mean well, but as you can see, the insurgency in Mindanao, is very much reduced. The Separatists have got the message. And there is some semblance of law and order, in that sense, there is no need for all these wonderful weapons you have carefully explained, the PAF and the AFP are more than adequately equipped. I can write reams and reams of sides about this, but I don't think it would have any relevance to this thread. The PAF should be praised for using limited resources.

As for the LAAR requirements set out by the USAF, as you can see there is a trend now for flying cheaper aircraft purely for the CAS and asymmetric warfare roles, they are currently dealing with, in Afghanistan and in the Philippines. Yes, there are US Special Forces in South East Asia, active and engaged. Hence the example given.

As yet I don't see the relevance of an F16 for the PAF. In 2020 the design will be obsolete and replaced by the F35 and FA22 in the US. Must the PAF spend precious money on products that will be obsolete in 10 years time? There are so many factors to consider.

I think the OV10 Bronco is a wonderful example of how an air force (USAF, USMC, USN, RTA, PAF) has used this platform in the past, and proven how capable this aircraft still is.

Yes money should be spent, but this should be carefully calibrated with the PAF's and the Nation's needs. That is why procurement now is focused on helicopters and other aircraft, not air superiority aircraft.

As I have said before the Mutual Defence Treaty sets certain guarantees for the Philippines, an arrangement not enjoyed by any other nation in ASEAN. With the current arrangement, there are no need for F16s.

I shall leave this thread now, as it is getting a bit too witty and sarcastic for me. Cheers :xmas

 

[gf0012-aust]

In 2020 the design will be obsolete and replaced by the F35 and FA22 in the US. Must the PAF spend precious money on products that will be obsolete in 10 years time? There are so many factors to consider.

Obsolesence is relative to whatever is on the threat matrix

F-16's will be in service past 2035.

 

[STURM]

the insurgency in Mindanao, is very much reduced. The Separatists have got the message.

Have the separatists really ''got the message'' ? Several decades later the NPA and MILF still poses a huge problem for the government. The good news is that the ASG is a shadow of its former self.

The PAF should be praised for using limited resources.

Indeed not only the PAF but the AFP sould be praised given that all 3 services are very underfunded and have huge reponsibilities. Especially in the case of the PN who operates a largely antiquated fleet yet has a huge coastline to patrol, in addition to the Philippines posessions in the Spratleys. No one disputing the comittment shown by the AFP in meeting its operational comittments despite being neglected by its political masters.

Yes, there are US Special Forces in South East Asia, active and engaged. Hence the example given.

For an interesting perspective on the state of the army and the U.S. involvement, ''Imperial Grunts'' by Kaplan makes a good read.

As I have said before the Mutual Defence Treaty sets certain guarantees for the Philippines, an arrangement not enjoyed by any other nation in ASEAN. With the current arrangement, there are no need for F16s.

Then again, given the current inability of the AFP to defend the sovereignty of the Philippines against an external threat, the Philippines is much more in need of a U.S security umbrella than any of its ASEAN neighbours. As you’re no doubt aware, the U.S. in the past has made it clear that the Mutual Defence Treaty does not include security guarantees by the U.S. over any ‘’unpleasantness’’breaking out over the Spratleys dispute.

Despite being asked politely by OPSSG to provide details about yourself and by me about your nationality, you have not replied. Whilst you're not in any way required or obligated to respond to our questions, a reply would be considered as a form of courtesy.

 

[Pragmatist]

Obsolesence is relative to whatever is on the threat matrix

F-16's will be in service past 2035.

That depends on the client/user, and not prospective buyers. I agree obsolescence is relative to "the opponent/enemy/belligerent" countered, but in this case, an OV10 Bronco and the SD211 are more than adequate to deal with guerillas and warlords in Mindanao.

An F16 is a luxury few Nations can afford, and I would think that for most third world countries, planes that are cheap and cheerful are an asset for any internal dissent/revolution their air forces may have to deal with. I think money spent on winning hearts and minds is far cheaper than buying F16s that are expensive to fly and maintain.

War and conflict is just an extension of politics. The Separatists have returned to the table, the communists are weak, and the warlords imprisoned. It has been interesting times in Mindanao.

Cheers

 

[gf0012-aust]

That depends on the client/user, and not prospective buyers.

Why not? There will continue to be prospective buyers of the F-16. Its probably the most flexible warload friendly 4th gen fighter in use today - and its utility is far from spent. Any doubt on that needs consideration of what the Israelis and Singaporeans have done to theirs. There will be countries in the 2025 timeframe that will be hitting similar capability requirements and where the F16 will be at an attractive capability price-point

I agree obsolescence is relative to "the opponent/enemy/belligerent" countered, but in this case, an OV10 Bronco and the SD211 are more than adequate to deal with guerillas and warlords in Mindanao.

Nations don't prepare for "one threat wonders". The Fils have more than insurgency threats to factor in. If the insurgents were their sole threat then they could restructure their entire armed forces to a paramilitary-specwarrie construct

An F16 is a luxury few Nations can afford, and I would think that for most third world countries, planes that are cheap and cheerful are an asset for any internal dissent/revolution their air forces may have to deal with. I think money spent on winning hearts and minds is far cheaper than buying F16s that are expensive to fly and maintain.

If there is only one threat then that's a perfect world. The issue is whether they still have relevance against whats defined in their entire threat matrix - not just what is visible today. countries that have blithely planned away for just one threat have sometimes paid the price. History shows that. The merits and the proportion of the spend have to be considered - but to assume that x=y therefore we don't need z anymore is just planning indolence

War and conflict is just an extension of politics. The Separatists have returned to the table, the communists are weak, and the warlords imprisoned. It has been interesting times in Mindanao.

Cheers

War is also about a capacity to inflict maximum violence upon the enemy in the most decisive and brutal fashion available and acceptable to your population via the elected govt of the day and by using your armed forces as the vehicle of that delivery if so deemed necessary.

The same philosophy apples to New Zealand except they don't have a separatist issue to the same level of public discord and volume

 

[OPSSG]

...As yet I don't see the relevance of an F16 for the PAF. In 2020 the design will be obsolete and replaced by the F35 and FA22 in the US. Must the PAF spend precious money on products that will be obsolete in 10 years time? There are so many factors to consider...

...

...An F16 is a luxury few Nations can afford, and I would think that for most third world countries, planes that are cheap and cheerful are an asset for any internal dissent/revolution their air forces may have to deal with...

Beyond Pakistan (who is taking delivery of 18 new F-16s and upgrading 42 of their existing F-16s), I can think of four other 3rd world countries who have recently chosen to either buy new or 2nd hand F-16s. They are as follows:

(i) in Nov 2009, it was announced that Morocco ordered 24 F-16s (beating Rafale);

(ii) in Oct 2009, it was announced by the Egyptian government that they want to buy another 24 F-16C/D Block 50/52 aircraft and they also intend to conduct a SLEP of their F110-GE engines in their existing F-16s;

(ii) earlier in the year, Jordan bought 2nd hand F-16s from the Dutch government; and

(iv) Chile's government also bought 18 second-hand F-16s from the Dutch government.​

BTW, Morocco is a first time F-16 buyer. So I don't think that the 5 above-mentioned countries think that F-16s will be obsolete in 10 years time. Further, I believe that Chile and Jordan got F-16s at cheap and cheerful prices. And of course Egypt and Pakistan are major US military aid recipients.

Central to my stream of thought is whether the PAF currently has the right precision tools to be able to influence the outcome in any fight. The answer must be no. While the PAF has some tools like to OV-10 Bronco, their current tool set for COIN is very limited. IMO, the S211 provides basic functionality without the capability to effectively discriminate between civilian and military targets in their operating area, thereby limiting PAF's utility.

The problem as I see it is not the relevance of the F-16 or even its price. The US is rich enough to donate a couple of old F-16s (as excess defence articles) but the problem is that the PAF must have the budget to train on them and operate the fleet. As I see it, it is the inability of your government to increase your country's tax base or to meet 2009's P798.5-billion collection target, resulting in the need to under invest in everything ranging from health care to education to your military. In fact, in Oct 2009, Sixto Esquivias IV resigned as commissioner of the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) because, according to him, “it was the honorable thing to do... The BIR has a large tax collection shortfall right now, and I feel ashamed to stay.”