UK Ministry of Defence, The Winter Supplementary Estimate presented by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) requests additional provision of £2,033 million, of which £1,919 million is to meet the estimated additional costs of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the financial year 2007–08.
The MoD waits until the Winter Supplementary Estimates (in November) to present to Parliament the estimated costs of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as the unpredictable nature of operations makes it difficult to forecast their cost with accuracy at the beginning of the financial year. We continue to argue that the estimated costs of military operations should be set out in the Main Estimates (in April); but, as a compromise, we recommend that the MoD provide in its estimates memorandum for the Main Estimates an account of its planning assumptions for the costs of military operations in the financial year ahead.
The report contains the information provided by the MoD in support of the Winter Supplementary Estimate, including a breakdown of the anticipated costs of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The actual cost of operations is likely to exceed the amount requested in the Winter Supplementary Estimate, as it does not provide for indirect resource costs or the cost of operations in the Balkans.
The cost of operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan has increased this year. The 39% increase in the cost of operations in Afghanistan is not very surprising, but the MoD needs to give more information about the capital programmes involved. While the 2% increase in the cost of operations in Iraq may seem surprising, given the drawdown in UK Forces over the year, it appears to be largely explained by the investment in facilities at Basra Airport and in force protection. The MoD needs to explain why military personnel costs for Iraq are expected to fall by only 5%.
The report also considers the outturn information on the actual costs of operations in 2006–07, as presented in the MoD’s Annual Report and Accounts. The outturn was less than had been provided for in the Estimates, but variation is understandable, given the unpredictability of military operations.
We recommend that the House of Commons approves the Winter Supplementary Estimate, given the importance of ensuring that our Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan are properly resourced.
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