United Press International,
WASHINGTON: Russia believes Iran to be 25 to 30 years away from possession of nuclear arms, but U.S. experts disagree.
“We should look at the real possibilities of Iran,” Val Spector, the president of the International Academy of Sciences on Problems of National Security, said Monday. “Their progress is kind of stopped. Their enrichment process is not very successful, even on a production level – the problem is of purification of initial materials. Unless they come to a solution of this purification problem, which is the most complicated part of any chemical production, the side reaction will impure the initial materials and spoil the final product.”
In a Woodrow Wilson Center lecture, Spector said Russia's assessment was based on the opinion of military experts who had visited Iranian nuclear sites. It contradicts, however, the assessments of the United States and its allies.
“That's a surprising assessment given that most estimates from intelligence organizations in the west see Iran from two to ten years away,” said Jim Phillips, research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the Heritage Foundation, told UPI. “Twenty-five years seems like a very optimistic estimate from my perspective, I think they're a lot closer than that.”
At the lecture, Spector did address the possibility that Iran could have come into possession of nuclear material illegally, making it easier for them to achieve nuclear armament sooner than Russia expects. However, he does not see that as a serious threat.
“Our military intelligence is connected to the technological capability of Iran, not on some kind of supposed delivery of illegal materials,” Spector said. “The efficiency of a nuclear device depends on the precision of the arrival of the parts that come to the critical mass. Without the right timing, there will be contamination, but the bomb will fizzle, not blow.”
Russia sees the discussion of Iranian nuclear capabilities as more of a political issue than a security issue, according to Spector, who referenced the U.S. role in Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi's return to power in 1953. Spector said the perception in Iran was that the United States hoped to force its way of life onto Muslims in the Middle East and that this belief infused the nuclear discussion with anti-imperialist sentiment.
Read Full Article Here
