United Press International,
WASHINGTON: The emerging threats from non-state actors that the United States has seen in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Iraq, and in cells and organization in much of the region are likely to become steadily more sophisticated.
It is impossible to predict the extent to which today's neo-Salafi Sunni Islamist extremist and Shi'ite activist Islamist extremist movements will grow or decline, but it seems very unlikely that they will go away. This is true regardless of whether Osama bin Laden and/or Abu Musab al- Zarqawi are killed or captured, or a major movement like al-Qaida is broken up.
As long as the present tensions exist in the Middle East exist, new non-state actors will emerge. Much will, however, depend on the outcome of the fighting in Iraq and progress towards an Arab-Israel peace settlement. The radicalization of Sunni and/or Shiite Arabs in Iraq could present major new problems, as could the radicalization of the Palestinian leadership. Similarly, there are serious uncertainties regarding the future of movements like Hezbollah.
Today's movements already point towards several aspects of the future. They clearly learn from experience, share techniques and lessons, and have at least some interest in chemical, biological, radioactive and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. Most work in some form with one or more state actors and other groups, although such relationships are unstable and uncertain.
Friendships do not always last, and regime change is often anything but desirable from the viewpoint of U.S. strategic interests and military commitments. So far, the law of unintended consequences has triumphed over the “End of History.”
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