,
Seoul: North Korea's threat on Tuesday to carry out a nuclear weapons test should be taken very seriously, analysts say. “I don't think we can interpret it as a negotiating tactic given that they did not get the response they wanted from the missile launches,” said Peter Beck, director for Northeast Asia of the International Crisis Group. “It's a disturbing development.”
Two Korean analysts also said a test was a possibility, perhaps before the US mid-term elections in November.
North Korea's foreign ministry announced it would carry out a nuclear weapons test in response to threats and sanctions from the United States, which it said was trying to topple its communist regime.
No date or time was given.
A UN Security Council resolution imposing weapons-related sanctions after the North test-fired seven missiles in July was a de facto “declaration of war,” the ministry said.
Beck said the announcement means the North has essentially given up on negotiating with the Bush administration, which has been trying in vain to bring Pyongyang back to six-nation talks on eliminating its nuclear program.
“When they launched the missiles I thought they were playing a game of brinkmanship to get their (US's) attention… this statement, coming from the foreign ministry, you have to take it seriously,” he told AFP.
Beck said a nuclear test was technically easier than a missile launch and the North had had more than a decade to get ready for it. “We have to take the threat very seriously.”
He said the North had “tested the waters” with its missile launches and there had since been no significant curtailment of energy shipments from Beijing.
“The only thing standing between them and a test is Beijing, which could cut off fuel shipments. That would get the North's attention.”
Beck, whose Brussels-based organisation works on global conflict resolution, said a test would gain the North nothing externally. “It will only further isolate them and move them further into pariah status.”
He said it might be planned for domestic purposes, possibly to keep the powerful army happy or to rally the public.
“The possibility of North Korea carrying out a nuclear test is quite high as the United States has made it clear that it would not accept Pyongyang's demand for lifting the financial sanctions,” said Professor Kim Yeon-Chul of Korea University.
The US imposed sanctions on a Macau bank accused of laundering money for the North in September 2005, the same month that Pyongyang agreed in principle at the six-nation talks to scrap its nuclear program in exchange for economic benefits and security guarantees.
“North Korea wants to gain an upper hand in future negotiations with the United States, with nuclear weapons at its hand,” Kim said.
Professor Lee Chul-Ki of Dongguk University said the announcement aimed to influence US public opinion before the November elections.
“There is a possibility that North Korea may take the action (nuclear testing) ahead of the November mid-term election in the United States unless Washington takes clear steps toward direct negotiations.”
John Swenson-Wright, of the Chatham House international affairs think-tank in London, said North Korea's threat should not be underestimated but he would be surprised if it carried it out.
The threat could have resulted from frustration at the lack of progress in the six-party talks but also with an eye on the mid-term elections, he added.
With the fall-out from the missile launches and the White House's focus on curbing counterfeiting and access to businesses used by top leaders, Pyongyang was attempting to “get the agenda back on their own terms and raise international awareness,” he said.
“I would be surprised if they went ahead and tested. It exposes them to a great deal of risk, far more than the missile launch…”
But he said the North was aware that Bush was committed in Iraq and facing a potential nuclear threat from Iran.
“This is probably part diplomatic brinkmanship… this is an effort by Pyongyang to say, 'Take us seriously',” he said.
To defuse the threat, “I think the Americans are going to have to move pretty quickly to put something on the table that looks attractive to the North Koreans.”
