Agence France-Presse, A majority of U.S. foreign policy experts — conservatives and liberals — believe the U.S. “surge” strategy in Iraq is failing, in a sharp reversal of opinion from six months ago, a survey released August 20 has found.
Most favored a drawdown of most U.S. forces over 18 months, but few supported an immediate withdrawal, and a majority believed that regional instability and civil war were likely to follow a pullout, according to the results.
More than 100 foreign policy experts took part in the survey by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank.
They included two former secretaries of state, a former national security adviser, and former military and intelligence officials, Foreign Policy said in a statement.
Eighty percent of the respondents had served in the U.S. government — more than half in the executive branch, the magazine said. Of those surveyed, 53 percent said the U.S. troop buildup was having a somewhat or very negative impact on protecting Americans from terrorism or advancing U.S. national security objectives.
That was up 22 percent from February, when the United States began adding some 30,000 troops to the U.S. force in Iraq in a buildup that took five months to complete. There are now 162,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.
Although 68 percent of the experts favored a drawdown of most U.S. troops within 18 months, only about one in five strongly supported an immediate withdrawal and 79 percent were opposed.
More conservatives (25 percent) than liberals (21 percent) supported an immediate pullout. Of those who identified themselves as conservatives, 36 percent said the surge was having no impact at all while 28 percent said the impact was either somewhat or very negative.
Among moderates, 59 percent said the impact was either somewhat or very negative. Another 31 percent of moderates said the surge had had no impact at all.
Sixty-eight percent of liberals said the impact has been negative, and 23 percent said there had been no impact.
The experts were asked about the direct effects of a U.S. troop withdrawal. Sixty-two percent said instability was likely to spread beyond Iraq’s borders, and 76 percent said Iran was likely to step into the power vacuum left by the United States.
Ninety-two percent said Iraqis were unlikely to resolve their differences and move toward a democracy, 86 percent believed that militias would break the country into warring provinces, and 84 percent said “a bloody civil war would rage out of control.”
Only 12 percent thought that attacks on the United States would be a direct result of a U.S. withdrawal, and 63 percent said Al-Qaida was unlikely to establish a headquarters in Iraq.
But 73 percent said Iraqi security forces also were unlikely to defeat Al-Qaida and drive it from Iraq, and 59 percent thought it likely that Al-Qaida would emerge globally strengthened by a U.S. withdrawal.
The respondents rated the US administration’s handling of the war in Iraq at only 2.9 on a 10-point scale. Ninety-two percent said the war on Iraq has had a very negative or somewhat negative impact on U.S. national security goals.
The survey found that the experts see growing dangers on a range of other fronts as well — Iran’s nuclear program, the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons, the competition for resources, weak and failing states, and terrorist networks.
More experts thought Pakistan was more likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists over the next three to five years than North Korea, Russia or Iran.
Pakistan also was chosen by most experts as the country most likely to become the next Al-Qaida stronghold.
