War Against ISIS

[STURM]

Adding to previous reports that Afghan Hazaras were in Syria fighting for Assad; it's now confirmed that Pakistani Shias have been in Syria for a while now, fighting under the Pasdaran. Iran has even offered the families of dead Pakistani fighters Iranian citizenship. Only a week ago Iran announced the formation of its Pasdaran led ''Shia Liberation Army'' which will consist of non Iranian Shias to fight in Arab countries.

Pakistan it seems has been playing a role in the conflict and like other players, its actions in Syria could lead to problems later.

http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/pakistans-role-in-the-syria-conflict/

Meanwhile some former U.S. commanders are critical of the campaign against IS. According to the article the U.S. is achieving a kill ratio of 15,000 -1 when it comes to killing IS. Impressive but has long been shown in other conflicts, killing large numbers of enemy combatants doesn't necessarily lead to political and military objectives been gained; Afghanistan a prime recent example.

ISIS: Former Commanders Take Increasingly Dim View of War

 

[John Fedup]

Adding to previous reports that Afghan Hazaras were in Syria fighting for Assad; it's now confirmed that Pakistani Shias have been in Syria for a while now, fighting under the Pasdaran. Iran has even offered the families of dead Pakistani fighters Iranian citizenship. Only a week ago Iran announced the formation of its Pasdaran led ''Shia Liberation Army'' which will consist of non Iranian Shias to fight in Arab countries.

Pakistan it seems has been playing a role in the conflict and like other players, its actions in Syria could lead to problems later.

Pakistan’s Role in the Syria Conflict | The Diplomat

Meanwhile some former U.S. commanders are critical of the campaign against IS. According to the article the U.S. is achieving a kill ratio of 15,000 -1 when it comes to killing IS. Impressive but has long been shown in other conflicts, killing large numbers of enemy combatants doesn't necessarily lead to political and military objectives been gained; Afghanistan a prime recent example.

ISIS: Former Commanders Take Increasingly Dim View of War

Something coming back to bite Pakistan in the a$$, frigging karma IMO. As for kill ratios of IS, maybe objectives aren't being obtained but a culling of their numbers works for me.:ar15

 

[Feanor]

culling of their numbers works for me.:ar15

That might have to do with the fact that you're an ocean away. If you were living in Nice, or Paris, you might feel different.

 

[John Fedup]

That might have to do with the fact that you're an ocean away. If you were living in Nice, or Paris, you might feel different.

Respectively, I don't think so. However, it would be interesting to hear from our friends in France.

 

[Waylander]

I am not from Paris but close enough and with some serious terror attack attempts of our own I am not sure if just culling their numbers as a serious affect on our security.

Providing security depends much more on the successfull work of our civil intelligence and law enforcement agencies.

Nevertheless, bombing them in order to stop thrir advance, to help the forces arrayed against them and probably most important, to reduce their income does help, too.

Kill ratios alone aren't terribly usefull.

 

[Feanor]

The Turks are rapidly expanding their area of control in northern Syria, though their advance southward against the Kurds has slowed down. There have been clashes between the Kurds and Turks by Kobani, east of the Euphrates. Turkish forces have also crossed the border at Al-Rai, about 50 kms from Jarabulus. At this point it's pretty clear that they intend to establish a fairly solid area of control in northern Syria, splitting the Kurds in half.

Meanwhile in Aleppo Assad loyalists continue pushing to re-establish a solid front line in front of Aleppo.

Probably as a way to exploit the regime's commitment of forces around Aleppo, the rebels have launched a major offensive in Hama province. They've been pushing southward fairly rapidly, though they're slowing down now that additional forces have been re-allocated to deal with them.

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Iraq has received additional Su-25s, probably from Russia. They now have at least 21 of them.

Ð’ ÑоÑтаве иракÑких ВВС уже 21 штурмовик Су-25. - Берлога Бронемедведа

Iranian-made Soviet ATGMs have cropped up in regime hands in Syria. Not really surprising, just another weapon system in a long list.

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A Syrian Gazelle helo was downed by an ATGM.

Поражение вертолета Gazelle ВВС Сирии из ПТÐ*К TOW боевиков - ®Ñ€Ð¸Ð¹ ЛÑмин

EDIT: Putin and Erdogan had a meeting that went well. Yet another sign that the Turkish operation has Russian permission.

http://riafan.ru/551752-putin-poshutil-na-vstreche-s-prezidentom-turcii-erdoganom

 

[Mig-29M2]

ISIS about to lose its last remaining territory along the Syrian-Turkish border as Turkish Army & FSA advance from both Jarablus & al-Rai.
If they lose that, they're gonna end up with no external borders.

 

[ngatimozart]

An article that appeared in the National Interest earlier this year suggesting that Saudi Arabia could become the next Syria. The argument used is that Daesh is constituted of mainly foreign fighters, who hold no allegiance to the countries they are fighting in. Once they are pushed out of Iraq and Syria, Saudi Arabia will be a very inviting target because of its relationship with the west, especially the US.

A large pool of potential recruits for radicalisation exists because of the large number of non residents who resent the strict interpretation of Sharia law imposed by Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia, high unemployment especially amongst the young, the increasing tensions between the strict conservatism of the Al Saud dynasty and the younger generations more liberal attitudes, the tensions between the ultra conservative and radical Wahhabi adherents and the conservative Al Saud dynasty who the ultra conservative and radicals consider liberals, the decline in oil revenues substantially reducing income for the Saudi govt etc., reducing the number of well paying jobs that can be doled out.

So you have 2000 odd Saudi nationals who are or have been fighting for Daesh or other rebel groups, some of whom will come home and decide to carry on where they left off in Syria & Iraq. More so they will most likely have easier access to wealthy benefactors within the Saudi society, govt and military, enabling them to access material and finance without having to be concerned about crossing national borders.

If this does come to pass, then the blood letting could be a lot worse than it is now and who will benefit the most? Iran? To a limited degree because it would seriously deplete it's main rivals ability to counter it, possibly removing that rival permanently from the great game. However, what would stop Daesh and their ilk from attacking Iran? After all the Iranians are Shia, despised and hated by the likes of Daesh. If the ultra conservative radical Wahhabi were to gain control of Saudi Arabia (and the two holiest places in Islam), then Iran would have even more implacable foes on their borders than the current Al Saud dynasty.

 

[Feanor]

An article that appeared in the National Interest earlier this year suggesting that Saudi Arabia could become the next Syria. The argument used is that Daesh is constituted of mainly foreign fighters, who hold no allegiance to the countries they are fighting in. Once they are pushed out of Iraq and Syria, Saudi Arabia will be a very inviting target because of its relationship with the west, especially the US.

A large pool of potential recruits for radicalisation exists because of the large number of non residents who resent the strict interpretation of Sharia law imposed by Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia, high unemployment especially amongst the young, the increasing tensions between the strict conservatism of the Al Saud dynasty and the younger generations more liberal attitudes, the tensions between the ultra conservative and radical Wahhabi adherents and the conservative Al Saud dynasty who the ultra conservative and radicals consider liberals, the decline in oil revenues substantially reducing income for the Saudi govt etc., reducing the number of well paying jobs that can be doled out.

So you have 2000 odd Saudi nationals who are or have been fighting for Daesh or other rebel groups, some of whom will come home and decide to carry on where they left off in Syria & Iraq. More so they will most likely have easier access to wealthy benefactors within the Saudi society, govt and military, enabling them to access material and finance without having to be concerned about crossing national borders.

If this does come to pass, then the blood letting could be a lot worse than it is now and who will benefit the most? Iran? To a limited degree because it would seriously deplete it's main rivals ability to counter it, possibly removing that rival permanently from the great game. However, what would stop Daesh and their ilk from attacking Iran? After all the Iranians are Shia, despised and hated by the likes of Daesh. If the ultra conservative radical Wahhabi were to gain control of Saudi Arabia (and the two holiest places in Islam), then Iran would have even more implacable foes on their borders than the current Al Saud dynasty.

Unfortunately this conflict is highly international on every side, not just the ISIS side. Various other rebel groups also feature foreign fighters, even the Kurds have international volunteers. Loyalist forces have everything imaginable, from Khazari Afghans, to Pakistani Shias, to Iranian regulars, Iraqi militias, Russian private military contractors, not to mention the uniformed militaries involved.

 

[swerve]

Why would non-Saudi residents of Saudi Arabia who resent the strictures of Wahhabism be likely to become radicalised & support Daesh? Rather the opposite, I'd think. If they dislike Wahhabi extremism, why become even more extreme? Especially as very many of them aren't Muslim.

Iran might not welcome a more implacable foe than the Saud family across the Gulf, but it might like the effect on oil prices, its sudden flood of new friends ('the enemy of my enemy is my friend'), & the enormous weakening of its enemy. Can you imagine a Daesh-run Saudi Arabia? All the non-Muslim & probably most of the non-Muslim foreign workers the Saudi economy depends on would flee. The economy, including oil production, would crash. The air force & navy would rapidly become useless, except for those parts which left the country. And what would happen to the vast sums held abroad? I expect that Saudi Arabia's external foreign reserves (i.e. most of them) would be frozen, & most of the rich would flee with as much of their money they could, foreseeing the loss of the local sources of their wealth.

 

[Toblerone]

For all their combat incompetence, isn't Saudi internal security and border control ultra-strict? Well, it does seem like a glass house in some other respects, for example their oil-dependent economy, demographics etc.

Although now that I think about it, they are living on borrowed time, oil is steadily losing its value. The higher-ups have no concept of loyalty or patriotism, they will be ready to escape to their London residencies at the first sound of a gunshot (or a car exhaust blowing)

The United States on Tuesday offered a reward of up to $3 million for information about a former Tajik special operations colonel whom it trained in counter-terrorism before he joined the Islamic State militant group.

The US were training the future Iraq battlefield commander of IS in counterterrorism. (When he was in the Tadjikistan special forces) Awkward, huh? :hippie

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-usa-tajikistan-idUSKCN115281

 

[Waylander]

The Houthis being able to penetrate said border and carry out raids deep inside Saudi territory doesn't speak too highly of their border control.

Well, in their defense, it's a huge and desolate border area to control.

 

[Toblerone]

Immigration control was probably the term I should be using for what I mean. They jail, execute or deport people at will.

 

[Feanor]

Immigration control was probably the term I should be using for what I mean. They jail, execute or deport people at will.

Arbitrary brutality does not equate efficiency, though it's often mistaken for it.

 

[Feanor]

Why would non-Saudi residents of Saudi Arabia who resent the strictures of Wahhabism be likely to become radicalised & support Daesh? Rather the opposite, I'd think. If they dislike Wahhabi extremism, why become even more extreme? Especially as very many of them aren't Muslim.

Well it could start like Syria did, with a non-radical anti-government protest movement, and as the state fails to adequately address their concerns or effectively suppress them, slowly morph into a radical movement over time. In theory. Though practically I don't see Saudi Arabia as the most likely candidate. With what's going on in the Sinai, as well as Libya and Yemen, there are better candidates.

Iran might not welcome a more implacable foe than the Saud family across the Gulf, but it might like the effect on oil prices, its sudden flood of new friends ('the enemy of my enemy is my friend'), & the enormous weakening of its enemy. Can you imagine a Daesh-run Saudi Arabia? All the non-Muslim & probably most of the non-Muslim foreign workers the Saudi economy depends on would flee. The economy, including oil production, would crash. The air force & navy would rapidly become useless, except for those parts which left the country. And what would happen to the vast sums held abroad? I expect that Saudi Arabia's external foreign reserves (i.e. most of them) would be frozen, & most of the rich would flee with as much of their money they could, foreseeing the loss of the local sources of their wealth.

Presumably at this point Saudi Arabia would be a failed state where the government controls most of the major urban centers while ISIS and various other groups control the countryside and smaller towns. I agree that it's not the most likely scenario right now, but if ISIS continues to spread, and the general instability in the Middle East isn't resolved in some decisive fashion, then it's not impossible. I think the main takeaway from the article is that some of the building blocks for a significant anti-government movement exist, albeit in two polar opposite directions (from the hardliners and the people wanting to modernize).

 

[Feanor]

An interesting article on the US-Russian negotiations over Syria. While I can't say I agree with all of it, far too much of it rings true.

M of A - Syria - U.S.-Russian Deal Fails (Again) Over Continued Support For Jihadis

 

[Toblerone]

Have you ever seen two tanks taken out in one minute? Here is a video of ISIS destroying two turkish tanks like it's nothing.

That's what happens when some countries supply high tech weapons to jihadis. And when I say some countries I mean USA and their staunch allies, the saudis and co.

https://www.facebook.com/cagdasgundem10/videos/528996150619637/

It is probably about this event:
https://southfront.org/isis-destroys-2-turkish-tanks-in-northern-syria/

It also doesn't help that the turks are using M60 tank variants.

I am convinced that without access to ATGM weapons all these radical groups would have been largely defeated by now. But ending the war and seeing the sunni radicals defeated is not the goal. I cannot forget the State Department's reaction to the liberation of Palmyra, it is etched in my memory, I posted a video of that in this thread.

Thankfully the americans are terrified of MANPAD terrorist attacks on commercial airliners and their own military planes. Otherwise I can't even imagine the syrian situation right now.

 

[Mig-29M2]

Have you ever seen two tanks taken out in one minute? Here is a video of ISIS destroying two turkish tanks like it's nothing.

It is probably about this event:
https://southfront.org/isis-destroys-2-turkish-tanks-in-northern-syria/

It also doesn't help that the turks are using M60 tank variants.

.

ISIS-affiliated media has released footage of Turkish tanks being targeted by anti-tank guided missiles near Al-Rai, in northern Syria.

Video: Turkish M60T Sabra tanks hit by ISIS ATGM near Al-Rai, northern Syria – Echelon-Defense

 

[PO2GRV]

The Decay of the Syrian Regime is Much Worse Than You Think

An interesting article on the state of regime forces at this time. This piece tries to dispel the myth that Regime forces are a monolith and that the "elite" units like Tiger are more like militias at best and gangs at worse being complicit in illegal activity like smuggling and trafficking.

Itvpresents a problem because even if Assad succeeds/survives what will become of these forces if they have to give up their little fiefdoms

 

[Toblerone]

The article makes some fair points but in the end directly proposes the decapitation of the syrian regime so the peace process can begin. My god, was he running out of time for this article or what? When I read propaganda articles I expect some better effort that this.

This makes those calls heard in Western capitals, as well as Moscow, that Syria’s state institutions must be preserved ring hollow. All this suffering — to preserve what precisely?

It is the fiction of a national regime upheld by Assad that drives the worst abuses of this war, that obliges Alawite kids from the coastal mountains and the plains of Hama to fight their own countrymen in distant corners of a country long fractured into smaller fiefdoms beyond the reach of the state. The United States should not be complicit in this pretension. The Syrian state is gone for good. At this point, a quick decapitation might be preferable to a drawn-out implosion.

Disgusting.

As a european that cares about the suppression of terrorism, the lessening of the refugee flows and USA losing its warmongering influence in the Middle East ... I prefer to read about the regime's military progress and consider it a light at the end of the tunnel for this war. No decapitation of Assad please, thank you very much. I am also a christian and Assad guarantees their survival.

And there is a lot of recent military progress to be hopeful about. Especially if Erdogan is on board, as we assume he is after the coup and all the meetings. I have to assume the way things are going are causing "deep concern" for those who want this quagmire to continue.