War Against ISIS

[Feanor]

Samantha Power

At least in my book, this significantly decreases the credibility of the claim, though of course the real evidence stands or falls on its own merit.

Meanwhile the RPK has blown up a Turkish checkpoint killing 9 and wounding 60 (numbers dead are likely to grow). It was done with a VBIED. This comes as Turks continue to shell Kurdish positions in Syria, and as Turkish forces along with loyal fighters pour into Syria.

A personal note, I'm not sure the fighters that Turkey is using can be called Syrian rebels at this point. They're paramilitaries trained in Turkey, fighting against all 3 other parties (Assad, ISIS, and the Kurds). Many of them may come from Turkish refugee camps. Then again many may not, and it's hard to judge without looking at the situation on the ground. Either way they're nothing like the indigenous rebels in the urban areas of Damascus.

Взрыв в Джизре - Colonel Cassad

And another thought. The extremely muted Russian and Syrian reply to this act indicate that Turkey got Russian permission if not approval for this action. Given that this is the first time Turkish jets appeared over Syria since the bomber incident (to the best of my knowledge), I think it's a pretty major sign that the Kurds are out of luck. The US is backing Turkey Russia/Assad/Iran have given the green light, and ISIS is retreating rapidly to make a last stand around al-Bab.

 

[STURM]

I would be very surprised if Russia didn't give its approval for the Turks to enter Syria. One thing's for sure, IS will be hoping that the Turks get bogged down in Syria fighting the Kurds and Assad will somehow benefit from this. An already complex situation - a secular minority Alawite government fighting Sunni Islamist and non Islamist groups; Sunnis fighting alongside Alawites against Sunnis, Kurds against Syrians and Turks; the U.S, Russia and Iran cooperating but still having different objectives; Turkey fighting IS and Kurds who are allied to the U.S but who are also fighting Assad; and various countries who all have their proxies and self-interests - has become more complex now the Turks have entered Syria. How does this eventually end? Will Erdogan eventually reach some kind of understanding with Assad? Will the Kurds be played out like they have been in the past? Will the U.S. eventually decide that Assad staying might be in line with its interests as there are other concerns to focus on?

[Inside Story - How Is Turkey Dealing With Threat From Syria?]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohG_xN2gvwQ

[Inside Story - Does Turkey Trust Washington?]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgLnvuqq3Q0

Turkey could be overplaying its hand with Syria ground offensive as civil war reaches crucial point | Voices | The Independent

The predictions have come to pass: Turkey is now in Syria and this is what it means for the Middle East | Voices | The Independent

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...-syria-warns-kurdish-ypg-160825131652728.html

 

[gf0012-aust]

I would be very surprised if Russia didn't give its approval for the Turks to enter Syria. One thing's for sure, IS will be hoping that the Turks get bogged down in Syria fighting the Kurds and Assad will somehow benefit from this. An already complex situation - a secular minority Alawite government fighting Sunni Islamist and non Islamist groups; Sunnis fighting alongside Alawites against Sunnis, Kurds against Syrians and Turks; the U.S, Russia and Iran cooperating but still having different objectives; Turkey fighting IS and Kurds who are allied to the U.S but who are also fighting Assad; and various countries who all have their proxies and self-interests - has become more complex now the Turks have entered Syria. How does this eventually end? Will Erdogan eventually reach some kind of understanding with Assad? Will the Kurds be played out like they have been in the past? Will the U.S. eventually decide that Assad staying might be in line with its interests as there are other concerns to focus on?

well said....

 

[Feanor]

Shield of Euphrates, day 3, Turkish troops and fighters continue to pour into Syria, and airstrikes against the Kurds continue as well. It looks like the YPG doesn't intend to pull back east of the Euphrates without a fight. Meanwhile ISIS is setting up defenses around al-Bab. An important note, there are American volunteers among the Kurds, and two have allegedly been killed by Turkish air and arty.

ЕвфратÑкий щит - День 3 - Colonel Cassad

The evacuation of the rebels from Darraya has begun.

Ð­Ð²Ð°ÐºÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð”Ð°Ñ€Ð°Ð¹Ð¸ - Colonel Cassad

Meanwhile the US says they support Syrian territorial integrity and don't support Kurdish independence.

СШРза единую Сирию - Colonel Cassad

 

[gazzzwp]

Shield of Euphrates, day 3, Turkish troops and fighters continue to pour into Syria, and airstrikes against the Kurds continue as well. It looks like the YPG doesn't intend to pull back east of the Euphrates without a fight. Meanwhile ISIS is setting up defenses around al-Bab. An important note, there are American volunteers among the Kurds, and two have allegedly been killed by Turkish air and arty.

ЕвфратÑкий щит - День 3 - Colonel Cassad

The evacuation of the rebels from Darraya has begun.

Ð*Ð²Ð°ÐºÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð”Ð°Ñ€Ð°Ð¹Ð¸ - Colonel Cassad

Meanwhile the US says they support Syrian territorial integrity and don't support Kurdish independence.

СШРза единую Сирию - Colonel Cassad

I am caught by this:

By evening, Syrian rebels backed by the United States and Turkey declared that they had seized the town of Jarabulus and its surroundings, which had been the Islamic State’s last major redoubt near the Turkish border. Numerous fighters posted photographs and videos of themselves online with the green, black and white flag adopted by the Syrian opposition as they walked through empty streets where the black flag of Islamic State still flew; it appeared that most of the militants had fled without a fight.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/25/world/middleeast/turkey-syria-isis.html?_r=0

The point I'm making and others are making on forums and bulletin boards is that this is not simply a Turkish offensive. Now that the FSA people are back in the game backed by Turkish and US forces for sure they will go after the Syrian Army.

I am wondering whether Turkey has pulled the wool over everyone's eyes by launching this offensive. Watch out for Russia expressing outrage over the coming weeks. Of course Turkey herself is highly focused on the Kurds and not the Syrian Army or IS.

 

[Feanor]

I am caught by this:

By evening, Syrian rebels backed by the United States and Turkey declared that they had seized the town of Jarabulus and its surroundings, which had been the Islamic State’s last major redoubt near the Turkish border. Numerous fighters posted photographs and videos of themselves online with the green, black and white flag adopted by the Syrian opposition as they walked through empty streets where the black flag of Islamic State still flew; it appeared that most of the militants had fled without a fight.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/25/world/middleeast/turkey-syria-isis.html?_r=0

The point I'm making and others are making on forums and bulletin boards is that this is not simply a Turkish offensive. Now that the FSA people are back in the game backed by Turkish and US forces for sure they will go after the Syrian Army.

I am wondering whether Turkey has pulled the wool over everyone's eyes by launching this offensive. Watch out for Russia expressing outrage over the coming weeks. Of course Turkey herself is highly focused on the Kurds and not the Syrian Army or IS.

Will they? How? They're separated by a corridor of Kurds and ISIS from the SAA. They'd have to take down al-Bab first.

I strongly suspect the Turks will not go after Assad. They've stated that they're fine with Assad remaining in power "for the transitional period". They've just signed additional agreements with Russia on the nuke plant deal, and they Turks are pushing hard to re-animate the Turkish Stream pipeline. I suppose anything is possible, this is Erdogan we're talking about after all, but so far it doesn't seem like it. I think Erdogan might be under the impression that he can split Syria with Putin. Which probably isn't totally wrong. On the Assad side, I can imagine he will be more then happy to let the Turks-ISIS-Kurds triangle stew while he mops up what pockets he can in the west. Certainly with the Kurds and the Turks, ISIS won't be in a position to push on Palmyra again. With the civil war in Turkey against their own Kurds continuing and casualties mounting, I think Erdogan will be more worried about shutting down the Kurds and making sure they can't pose a credible threat to Turkish territorial integrity, then with ousting Assad.

 

[Feanor]

Case in point, Russia has entered a law into the cabient about resuming charter flights to Turkey, just after the Turks entered Syria. Possibly as soon as Monday, charter flights will resume.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑÌÈ óçíàëè î ñíÿòèè îãðàíè÷åíèé íà ÷àðòåðû â Òóðöèþ

Meanwhile the Turks have taken their first KIA in Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóðöèÿ ñîîáùèëà î ïåðâûõ ïîòåðÿõ â íàçåìíîé ñèðèéñêîé îïåðàöèè

Shield of Euphrates is continuing, and there is information that the Turks crossed into Syria east of the Euphrates, near Kobani. There isn't any fighting there so far.

ЕвфратÑкий щит - День 4 - Colonel Cassad

 

[gazzzwp]

World media seems to be reporting the same story today that the US is demanding a halt to Turkey's attack on the Kurds.

Syria war: US warns over Turkish-Kurdish violence - BBC News

The US needs to step in quickly and find common ground for a truce between these two faction as potentially they are both important US allies.

Once again things seem to be going totally against the US script. Does the Syrian regime benefit? How can it not with two of it's foes pitted against each other.

If this one issue can be resolved then the US has the potential to be a very influential party in resolving this conflict.

 

[John Fedup]

World media seems to be reporting the same story today that the US is demanding a halt to Turkey's attack on the Kurds. If this one issue can be resolved then the US has the potential to be a very influential party in resolving this conflict.

Given the Turks stance on all things Kurdish, a resolution seems very unlikely. If Turkey (or more correctly Erdogan) ignores US demands then I guess that would indicate he's moved into Putin's sphere.

 

[Toblerone]

Firstly I see this as a good lesson of what would happen to an independent kurdish state at the turkish border. Turkey will not allow it and might is right. The best course of action is to ally with Assad and work towards a strong autonomy within a new syrian state. That is the only way to be protected, being part of Syria.

Secondly, being bedfellows with the USA is only beneficial if you are one of the big fish. The little fish get eaten as the US game of thrones plays out. The kurds were used to push ISIS back and they bled to capture Manbij. Now they are expected to go back east of the Euphrates and leave these hard-earned territories to ... their nemesis Turkey! Now the turks and their paramilitaries deliver blows to them (and ISIS doing the same from the south) as the US express their "deep concern".

 

[gf0012-aust]

interesting view on the limits of russian air power

Fight for Syria's Aleppo exposes limits of Russian air power | Reuters

 

[Feanor]

interesting view on the limits of russian air power

Fight for Syria's Aleppo exposes limits of Russian air power | Reuters

It's an interesting article but the author doesn't seem to understand the difference between CAS and interdiction. The Russian bombings were heavily aimed at rebel reinforcements attempting to approach Aleppo. I'm not sure they were successful, but the author also doesn't know the situation on the ground. For example, he claims that the rebels lifted the siege and have access to the city again. Which isn't really true. The only road the rebels have is under government fire at two points, including one where a hill overlooks the road and is solidly in SAA hands. Running convoys under those conditions is hardly feasible.

Certainly Russian CAS has always been lackluster, especially in this case where they're dealing with Hezbollah fighters, the SAA, and Iranian airborne. And in a dense urban environment, there are serious limits on the effectiveness of CAS. But this author doesn't seem to recognize of any of this. He quotes a number of interesting statements, and then parrots back what appear to be generic media statements about the situation in Syria.

His bigger point might be that Russia doesn't seem to have a clear strategic goal. But he doesn't help make that argument by talking about the Aleppo bombings.

 

[gf0012-aust]

It's an interesting article but the author doesn't seem to understand the difference between CAS and interdiction. The Russian bombings were heavily aimed at rebel reinforcements attempting to approach Aleppo. I'm not sure they were successful, but the author also doesn't know the situation on the ground. For example, he claims that the rebels lifted the siege and have access to the city again. Which isn't really true. The only road the rebels have is under government fire at two points, including one where a hill overlooks the road and is solidly in SAA hands. Running convoys under those conditions is hardly feasible.

Certainly Russian CAS has always been lackluster, especially in this case where they're dealing with Hezbollah fighters, the SAA, and Iranian airborne. And in a dense urban environment, there are serious limits on the effectiveness of CAS. But this author doesn't seem to recognize of any of this. He quotes a number of interesting statements, and then parrots back what appear to be generic media statements about the situation in Syria.

His bigger point might be that Russia doesn't seem to have a clear strategic goal. But he doesn't help make that argument by talking about the Aleppo bombings.

I think what he was trying to allude to was an issue of relevant projection and persistence. He seems to think that using Iran identifies a range ring constraint - which in absolute terms, is a tad incorrect

 

[ngatimozart]

Feanor, my not being up on all aspects of the Tu22M, one would think it had AAR receiving capability; is this the case? If so would not the VVS utilise their tankers more? Or do they have problems with their tanker force?

 

[Feanor]

Feanor, my not being up on all aspects of the Tu22M, one would think it had AAR receiving capability; is this the case?

It had it originally but it was removed for treaty compliance, to avoid having the Tu-22Ms counted as strategic bombers.

If so would not the VVS utilise their tankers more? Or do they have problems with their tanker force?

They have problems with their tanker force. It's gotten better but the real problem is they have too few. The first new tanker is in final assembly right now at Ulyanovsk. And they're converting a pair of Il-96s into tankers (a hair-brained scheme because they didn't know what else to do with a pair of ex-cargo planes that nobody wanted).

 

[Feanor]

I think what he was trying to allude to was an issue of relevant projection and persistence. He seems to think that using Iran identifies a range ring constraint - which in absolute terms, is a tad incorrect

It's likely a question of cost as well as demonstrating capability militarily and politically, to rapidly deploy a decent-sized strike force to a place it's not expected. There's a Tu-22M3M upgrade in production, and a new AShM, the X-32 (why they didn't just integrate the Onyx/Yakhont like the BrahMos for India is beyond me). So it's entirely possible that this is at least partially designed to send the message that Russian now has maritime strike capabilities in the Persian Gulf, at least in theory. I think the entire stunt has less to do with Syria and more to do with that.

I mean, they put 6 Backfires, and 4 Fullbacks, and flew multiple sorties. While this isn't super-impressive, it's more then they could do 5 years ago. Partially because 5 years ago nobody would let them. And partially because the VVS hadn't had previous experience of rapidly deploying to a different country.

 

[swerve]

They have problems with their tanker force. It's gotten better but the real problem is they have too few. The first new tanker is in final assembly right now at Ulyanovsk. And they're converting a pair of Il-96s into tankers (a hair-brained scheme because they didn't know what else to do with a pair of ex-cargo planes that nobody wanted).

Nothing wrong with the Il-96 as a tanker, but agreed that converting a couple doesn't make sense. If it'd been adopted as the new strategic tanker while still in production, & a new tanker fleet of Il-96s built from scratch, it'd be a hell of a lot more sensible. It could also have been the basis for a new AEW aircraft. It's a bit big, but the size would make a lot of extra fuel & hence endurance possible.

Too late now, though.

 

[Feanor]

Nothing wrong with the Il-96 as a tanker, but agreed that converting a couple doesn't make sense. If it'd been adopted as the new strategic tanker while still in production, & a new tanker fleet of Il-96s built from scratch, it'd be a hell of a lot more sensible. It could also have been the basis for a new AEW aircraft. It's a bit big, but the size would make a lot of extra fuel & hence endurance possible.

Too late now, though.

They're going to use the Il-476 as the basis for all of that. This is just a case where Polet, the company, tossed back 4 Il-96s to the factory (VASO). One went to the SLO Rossiya team. One became an MoD VIP plane, and two are being turned into tankers. It was basically a bailout for the plant. Actually the entire recent I"l-96 acquisition program is a bailout for the factory.

 

[gazzzwp]

Turkey has become the 'free radical' that everyone is now concerned about. The US is afraid that they will keep attacking the Kurds, and Russia is concerned that Turkey will not co-ordinate with the SAA.

PressTV-Russia concerned over Turkey’s Syria op

At least the US and Russia seem to be on the same page at last.

I can now see a glimmer of light at the end of the long tunnel.

 

[Feanor]

It looks like the SAA has broken through from two sides, at Aleppo, nearly cutting off the rebel forces in Rasmuseh. If they do end up cut off, they will form a second Aleppo pocket. At this point the road into Rasmuseh is cut, and the only communication between rebel forces there and outside Aleppo is through the artillery college.

Битва за Ðлеппо. 31.08.2016 - Colonel Cassad
Битва за Ðлеппо. 31.08.2016 - Вечер - Colonel Cassad
ОÑвобождение техничеÑкого колледжа ВВС - Colonel Cassad

Meanwhile the Turkish offensive into Syria continues, pushing against both the Kurds and ISIS. The US says they were not on board with this offensive, and Turkey acted on their own, and said they will not provide air support to Turkish action against the Kurds.

ЕвфратÑкий щит - День 7 - Colonel Cassad

EDIT: An OSINT report on a chemical weapons attack by ISIS.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/08/31/evidence-august-16-2016-chemical-attack-marea-isis/