War Against ISIS

[STURM]

Mark my words, Russia has a hidden agenda as we will see a the next few months unfold.

Not surprises there as everybody has a hidden agenda.

The way I see it, Russia's main worry is the spread of IS and groups like it to areas out of Syria, including Russia's Caucasus region. Sure, Russia would like Assad to stay on as it desires a Russian ''friendly'' state in a region in which many countries have been Western or to be more precise, U.S. ''friendly'' for decades. Having seen how the West has had its way in the region for so long and how more unstable the region is; it is to be expected that Russia want to play a bigger role there. After all, like other countries, Russia has legitimate concerns and interests in the Middle East. I've said this before : the fact that the U.S. is looking into ways on how it can cooperate with Russia is telling; it shows that the U.S. has - grudgingly - come around to accepting that Russia has a positive role to play; this in sharp contrast to the previous U.S. policy of wanting as little to do as possible with Russia, with regards to Syria.

[The ISIS War Has A New Commander - And ISIS May Be The Least Of His Worries]
http://www.militarytimes.com/articl...nder-and-isis-may-be-the-least-of-his-worries

[Turkey's Hit List Of Enemies Is Growing As Erdogan Prepares To Buddy Up With Putin In Syria]
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...erdogan-putin-syria-robert-fisk-a7202751.html

 

[PO2GRV]

Iran: Russia Is No Longer Using Our Air Base For Strikes On Syria
Well that was fast. Not sure what it signifies if anything. Had heard elsewhere that there were grumblings in Iran WRT Russia making sorties out of Iranian bases but no link. We'll really know if or when the VVS deploys from Iran again soon

Apologies in advance for expressing an opinion but the military campaigns to follow will be driven by politics and in this way:

I still think that Russia will be driven in the end not by principled action against IS or to honour alliances with Syria and Iran, but whatever they can do to further blunt the US influence in the region and cause political damage to NATO by perhaps leading Turkey into some mischief. Mark my words, Russia has a hidden agenda as we will see a the next few months unfold. The US as far as I can tell is aware of all this but is remaining focused on it's primary goal.

Youve been saying this for months now but still there is no proof or anything resembling evidence. Russia, like any other player in IR is looking out for its own interests. Foreign Policy isnt a movie with antagonists with hidden agendas, just countries looking out for themselves while balancing foreign goals against domestic tolerances. Your russophobia isnt helpful.

 

[ngatimozart]

Looks like Free Syrian Army rebels are about to attempt to seize the Daesh held Syrian border town of Jarablus from within Turkey. This is a preemptive strike to stymie any Kurdish expansion plans.

Meanwhile Kurdish forces have started an assault against the remaining Syrian govt forces in the northeastern Syrian city of Hasaka with the intention of clearing then completely from the city.

 

[gazzzwp]

..................................Your russophobia isnt helpful.

Fair point and I can see why you might think this. It was the way the Kurds were bombed suspiciously just after Erdogan and Putin had coffee together. Previously they had vowed support for the Kurds. I can't believe that the Syrians decided to act without consultation with big brother.

Also I will continue to be suspicious about Russia after the mess they have made in the Ukraine. I'm keen not to spoil the thread, so no more to be said. I've just said this to clarify my position.

 

[Strannik]

...Also I will continue to be suspicious about Russia after the mess they have made in the Ukraine. I'm keen not to spoil the thread, so no more to be said. I've just said this to clarify my position.

Well, no need to clarify you position any further, In my view. Your anti-Russian sentiment was made abundantly clear. Let's not event start this topic of who made a mess of what Ukraine, Iraq, Libya. Who created and nurtured Afghanistan mujahideen = Taliban =~ "modern" IS in Syria. Let's not even start it.

 

[STURM]

Who created and nurtured Afghanistan mujahideen = Taliban =~ "modern" IS in Syria. Let's not even start it.

The Taliban was initially seen as a possible stabilising force; once that could bring peace to the country and put an end to the warlords. A small Taliban delegation even visited the U.S. and met members of Congress; all part of lobbying by a U.S. company who intended to lay a pipeline across Taliban controlled territory. Off course everything changed after 11th September.

The U.S. didn't nurture or create the Taliban. One big mistake it did make however was to allow Pakistan to distribute arms and supplies. The Pakistanis ensured that only groups it was close with got supplied; Rasul Sayaf, Heitmeyer, etc. Massoud's Jamiat-i Islami received practically nothing as he wasn't close to the Pakistanis and his group weren't Pashtuns.

 

[Toblerone]

I disagree. The US provided manpads to the freedom fighters and the evil soviets were defeated. A classic example of failed US policies which resulted in the rise of terrorism. They learnt that after 3000 people lost their lives in 2001.


Wait, no they didn't.

In my opinion US policies are often against US/western interests. For example in Syria the US policy to remove Assad and arm the rebels is failing. Thankfully. Imagine if the US policies had been successful. Oh god, please no...

Recently a US vetoed group beheaded a boy in Aleppo. Oops, what an embarrassment I mean, do these moderate rebels have to film these things on their phones? Come on, guys, think of the "principled stance" of the west that gazzzwp talks about.

 

[ngatimozart]

People be nice please or us Mods will start getting cranky.

 

[Toblerone]

Turkey Launches New Artillery Strikes at IS in Syria - ABC News

The turks are providing artillery support in preparation of the Jarablus operation. Hitting ISIS positions. Pro-russian and pro-iranian sources also mention kurdish positions being hit. Wishful thinking on their part probably at this point.

Also, the kurdish commander that was put in charge of the Jarablus operation was assassinated a few hours after the announcement he made.

https://southfront.org/turkey-strik...ias-jarablous-pyd-targets-in-northern-manbij/

Jarablus Military Council (SDF) commander El-Cadir assassinated after announcement today - Map of Syrian Civil war/ Global conflict in Syria - Syria news - syria.liveuamap.com

 

[STURM]

I disagree. The US provided manpads to the freedom fighters and the evil soviets were defeated. A classic example of failed US policies which resulted in the rise of terrorism. They learnt that after 3000 people lost their lives in 2001.

Providing aid to the Afghan resistance did not lead to the rise of terrorism. Several factors led to the rise of terrorism in the country; mainly the U.S.'s pullout after the Soviets were defeated and the role Pakistan played. Disagree all you want but the facts are there : read Ahmad Rashid's ''Taliban'' and Descent ''Into Chaos''.

The U.S. wasn't the only one who provided MANPADS. Egyptian made Sa-7s were sourced [paid for with Saudi cash] and Britain provided some Blowpipes. Sure the MANPADs [especially the Stingers] made a difference, although they didn't shoot down as many Soviet aircraft as it was then claimed but MANPADs by themselves did not defeat the Soviets. The long term supply of arms, weapons, comms and other gear [not just from the U.S. but other countries as well]; that made the real difference in preventing a Soviet victory.

The U.S. has made many flawed decisions in the past but it has also made right ones : were it not for the U.S; Kosovo might still be part of Serbia and it was also largely to U.S. efforts that peace was finally achieved in Bosnia [BTW Iran was one of the suppliers of arms and supplies to the Bosnian Muslims - another example where both countries shared common interests].

 

[Feanor]

The Turkish military has just begun direct intervention in Syria. Turkish armor, SpecOps, and aircraft, have been deployed in support of a group of pro-Turkish "rebels" as part of a general assault on Jarabulus. Meanwhile Turkish arty has been pounding ISIS and Kurdish positions north of Manbij. The Turkish move seems to be a direct response to both the victory of the Kurds in Manbij and the de-facto regime defeat in Hasake, where a ceasefire was finally put into effect but one that required the withdrawal of the Syrian military, leaving only civil police in the town.

Pro-Turkish fighters have been gaining and losing ground to ISIS along the Turkish border, and it's extremely likely that what Turkey is doing is establishing the de-facto control area in northern Syria that they've been talking about. In a situation where the Turks civil war against the Kurds continues, they seem intent on preventing the Kurds in Syria from linking up with their western enclave.

Russian and Syrian response in the coming hours should tell us whether this operation was negotiated or whether Erdogan is acting unilaterally. Given the defeat in Hasake, it's not impossible that Assad decided to sanction the Turkish action.

It's important to note that one week from now (August 31st) Putin plans on visiting Turkey. This marks a high-point in Russo-Turkish relations, since the bomber incident. A final thought, Turkish F-16s have entered Syrian airspace and struck targets around Jarubulus. This is the first such action since the bomber incident.

Ð¢ÑƒÑ€Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð²ÐµÐ»Ð° войÑка в Сирию - Colonel Cassad
Перемирие в ХаÑаке - Colonel Cassad
Гонка за Ð”Ð¶Ð°Ñ€Ð°Ð±Ð»ÑƒÑ - Colonel Cassad
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EDIT: Information that the US is also flying airstrikes in support of the Turkish operation.

http://en.trend.az/world/turkey/2652140.html
http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-turkish-tanks-approach-border-with-syria-report-2248365

 

[Feanor]

Turkey has taken Jarubulus and Kaklijah. They're attacking ISIS, while delivering artillery strikes against the Kurds to keep them from advancing. The main force is a number of pro-Turkish fighters supported by a unit of their Red Berets, and ~2 btlns of mech-infantry and tanks. Artillery and air is supporting both the Turkish units and the pro-Turkish fighters. US A-10s were also sighted in the area.

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has "expressed concern" and Syria protested that this is violation of their sovereignty. But both statements are rather muted.

Ð”Ð¶Ð°Ñ€Ð°Ð±Ð»ÑƒÑ Ð¿Ð°Ð» - Colonel Cassad
Турецкое наÑтупление на евере Сирии - bmpd

 

[gazzzwp]

UN finds the Syrian authorities guilty of using Chlorine gas.

UN report: Syrian troops carried out gas attacks - News from Al Jazeera

The US is already urging action while Russia is urging caution. I feel that this is a chance for Russia to prove itself as a morally guided player in this conflict.

We will have to wait and see.

 

[Toblerone]

Al Jazeera stirring up some dirt over a "confidential report" about old attacks that is yet to be discussed and puts most of the blame on ISIS anyway. What kind of action are the US urging for exactly?

The syrian government is at least having some success in Darayya, where the rebels agreed to withdraw to northern Syria and the operations in eastern ghouta are continuing successfully.

I still don't understand what the kurdish objectives are. Are they withdrawing or not? If yes, is Turkey supposed to clear out ISIS from that huge area, Al Bab etc? Are the kurds herded towards Raqqa? I wouldn't even go near that city if I was a kurd leader.

 

[ngatimozart]

Al Jazeera stirring up some dirt over a "confidential report" about old attacks that is yet to be discussed and puts most of the blame on ISIS anyway. What kind of action are the US urging for exactly?

The syrian government is at least having some success in Darayya, where the rebels agreed to withdraw to northern Syria and the operations in eastern ghouta are continuing successfully.

I still don't understand what the kurdish objectives are. Are they withdrawing or not? If yes, is Turkey supposed to clear out ISIS from that huge area, Al Bab etc? Are the kurds herded towards Raqqa? I wouldn't even go near that city if I was a kurd leader.

It is not Al Jazeera stirring up dirt as you put it. It has been reported in other media as well. It was not a US, but a UN report. Dial back the attitude a bit.

 

[Feanor]

It looks like the US sold the Kurds downriver. The Kurds were told to pull east of the Euphrates or lose their US backing. Now they've left Manbij. Meanwhile the Turks and Turkish-backed fighters are pushing into Syria, and additional Turkish armor entered Syria. It should be noted that a small Kurdish contingent does remain in Manbij, where poewr was handed over to a local council of some sorts. Meanwhile in the north, there's a contact line between the Turks and the Kurds, with some small sporadic clashes but no heavy fighting. ISIS has been withdrawing rapidly without a fight.

ЕвфратÑкий Щит - День 2 - Colonel Cassad

The rebels near Damascus have surrendered Darraya under the condition of safe passage, but they're not allowed to take weapons or money.

КапитулÑÑ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Дарайе - Colonel Cassad

 

[Toblerone]

I understood it's a UN report, my question was in reference to gazzzwp saying that the US is urging action. But yes, let's see what happens with this report.

There is an article on War is Boring about usage of chemicals in Syria if anyone's interested.

 

[ngatimozart]

I understood it's a UN report, my question was in reference to gazzzwp saying that the US is urging action. But yes, let's see what happens with this report.

There is an article on War is Boring about usage of chemicals in Syria if anyone's interested.

Cool then no probs. The report received media coverage here in NZ on the msm, all 30 seconds of it. Both the SAA and Daesh have been blamed, Chlorine gas in the case of the SAA and mustard gas in the case of Daesh. The use of gas is a war crime and against civilians is a crime against humanity.

 

[gazzzwp]

I understood it's a UN report, my question was in reference to gazzzwp saying that the US is urging action. But yes, let's see what happens with this report.

There is an article on War is Boring about usage of chemicals in Syria if anyone's interested.

Samantha Power US Ambassador to the UN apparently made the remark.

More information here:

US urges action over 'Syrian chemical attacks' - BBC News

According to Vitaly Churkin Russia will need time to review the document as it is a "very complicated report".

White House condemns Syria's chemical weapons use - CNNPolitics.com

Please draw your own conclusions.

 

[gazzzwp]

It looks like the US sold the Kurds downriver.........

Or is it that they did not foresee the Turkish army charging down the road having been given the golden blessing from Russia? Every player that joins the party has their own special set of interests. It is just this that makes the conflict both interesting and highly dangerous.