War Against ISIS

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Three of us posting the same video of a turkish tank cooking?

Also, it is unfair to compare this to saudi incompetence. You would only be justified to say that if ISIS were actually raiding turkish towns. Bonus points if the USA condemned the attacks and agreed among themselves that the war should not threaten Syria's neighbours.

This is in reference to this comedy show:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-on-yemen--2


EDIT: The US and Russia agreed on a nationwide cessation of hostilities

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...7ca320-75ff-11e6-9781-49e591781754_story.html
ISIS fighters destroyed Turkish artillery on two occasions, where the artillery was inside Turkey.

It seems like, similar to the Saudis, they're bad at providing security for their own positions.
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
True but his other option was not going into Syria, and thus watching Syrian Kurdistan become a base for the rebels inside Turkey to keep attacking the Turkish military. Winning a COIN war is nearly impossible when the insurgents have a safe base just across a porous border. Erdogan is persistently trying to make nice with Iraqi Kurdistan and seeing that he didn't really have that option with Syria, make it possible for him to move directly against the Syrian Kurds should they become a real problem.

EDIT: I mean this is starting to approach Saudi levels of incompetence. There goes another one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC3XzU42_QI
But it didn't need to come to this. The internal Turkish peace process with the Kurds went along nicely in the earlier years of Erdogans government. So good that many didn't see the need for an own state anymore. The same goes for his relations with the Iraqi Kurds and their lukewarm stance towards a united Kurdish state.

Then came the tied election in Turkey and all of a sudden he decides to go all gloves of on the Kurds while having antagonized them before by supporting every flavor of Syrian Jihadi rebel (inlc. Daesh...) and turning a blind eye towards the close call that was Kobane for the Syrian Kurds.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
But it didn't need to come to this. The internal Turkish peace process with the Kurds went along nicely in the earlier years of Erdogans government. So good that many didn't see the need for an own state anymore. The same goes for his relations with the Iraqi Kurds and their lukewarm stance towards a united Kurdish state.

Then came the tied election in Turkey and all of a sudden he decides to go all gloves of on the Kurds while having antagonized them before by supporting every flavor of Syrian Jihadi rebel (inlc. Daesh...) and turning a blind eye towards the close call that was Kobane for the Syrian Kurds.
This is a good point and I'm not well familiar with the situation inside Turkey, vis-a-vis the Kurds. I just see occasional materials in Russian blogs on what appears to be a full blown COIN war against the Kurds. Is there any good reading on how the current iteration of their conflict got started?
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
It got well covered by the media here due to us being much closer and with us having a huge turkish/kurdish minority in country.

I don't have a good paper or so on hand.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Nothing yet on BBC or Al Jazeera. How the Israelis respond will depend entirely - assuming the report is true - on whether the aircraft was in Syrian airspace or was elsewhere. It's one thing retaliating due to one's aircraft being shot down in international airspace; a completely different thing if that aircraft had entered the airspace of another country which one was not officially at war with and was shot down. The Jerusalem Post reports SAMS being fired at Israeli aircraft on a ''Syrian position''. Also, at a time when the U.S. has just reached an agreement with Russia over a ceasefire; the last thing it wants is Israel and Syria having a go at each other.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
A couple of missiles were fired and nothing was hit according to the israelis. No surprise, really.

At least it demonstrates to the israelis that they may want to tone it down a little or risk a shootdown.
 

gazzzwp

Member
A couple of missiles were fired and nothing was hit according to the israelis. No surprise, really.

At least it demonstrates to the israelis that they may want to tone it down a little or risk a shootdown.
Any guesses on what the missile likely were? S300's by any chance? If so not good PR for Russia. Is it possible that the Israelis know how to defeat this system? I seem to recall they came up against it a while ago unscathed.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Any guesses on what the missile likely were? S300's by any chance? If so not good PR for Russia. Is it possible that the Israelis know how to defeat this system? I seem to recall they came up against it a while ago unscathed.
https://southfront.org/surface-to-air-missile-hits-israeli-aircraft-over-syria-video/

Nothing is confirmed at the moment. But if there is no proof of a shootdown ... I will believe the israelis.

EDIT:
It seems russians forces are being deployed at the Castello road and elsewhere, close to the front lines. Maybe this part of the deal was what made the US side apprehensive about the ceasefire agreement, heh.

https://southfront.org/russian-military-deploys-operative-groups-in-aleppo-and-hama/

Here they are attacked live during a press briefing, check after 5:20 :D
https://southfront.org/russian-soldiers-come-under-fire-during-press-briefing-from-aleppo/

EDIT: Those must be syrian soldiers, though
 
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Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
The Syrian AD system has been fully compromised even before it's degration during the civil war as has been shown by the IDF hitting that nuclear reactor with impunity some years ago.

So as long as the Russians don't start to join the game the IDF will be able to operate against targets in Syria at will.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Any guesses on what the missile likely were? S300's by any chance? If so not good PR for Russia. Is it possible that the Israelis know how to defeat this system? I seem to recall they came up against it a while ago unscathed.
Allegedly an S-200 was used. No S-300s are currently in Syria's hands. The S-400 is in Hmeimeem, operated by Russia, but it doesn't have good reach for targets over southern Syria.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Syrian AD system has been fully compromised even before it's degration during the civil war as has been shown by the IDF hitting that nuclear reactor with impunity some years ago.

So as long as the Russians don't start to join the game the IDF will be able to operate against targets in Syria at will.
Yes, but it doesn't mean a sole aircraft can't get shot down because someone screwed up, or a particularly enterprising air defense unit got lucky. It looks like claims of a downed UAV, at least, are true. With no evidence surfacing on a downed jet, I strongly suspect it was a miss, possibly a damaged aircraft returning to base.

СоветÑкий подарок - Colonel Cassad
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Sure but by now one would think that the Syrians have learned that the Israelis will come for a visit everytime Hezbollah gets it's hands on some fancy equipment. And that they get trashed additionally when responding with their AD.

It's not as if they can afford the losses in men and equipment their futile defense of their Hezbollah allies results in.

Well, on the other hand they could just stop channeling equipment to Hezbollah which is clearly directed at Israel and not the rebels. But that would probably cost them Hezbollah's support...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Sure but by now one would think that the Syrians have learned that the Israelis will come for a visit everytime Hezbollah gets it's hands on some fancy equipment. And that they get trashed additionally when responding with their AD.

It's not as if they can afford the losses in men and equipment their futile defense of their Hezbollah allies results in.
It's a hard question. Often it's not Hezbollah that's getting hit but the SAA itself.

Well, on the other hand they could just stop channeling equipment to Hezbollah which is clearly directed at Israel and not the rebels. But that would probably cost them Hezbollah's support...
There's that, and there's the fact that Israel plays a nasty game of supporting al-Nusra (al-Qaeda) in Syria against Assad. There have even been claims of Israel supporting ISIS.

That and incidents like these: https://theintercept.com/2015/07/15/israeli-special-forces-assassinated-senior-syrian-official/

It's not a pretty picture. Israel believes in keeping Syria weak, and they do what they feel they need to, to achieve that goal. It's rather ugly on all sides. At the end of the day, I think Assad is better off taking the occasional hit from Israel, but getting thousands of well trained, well equipped, and basically professional fighters from Hezbollah.
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Agreed, one of the most important US allies, Israel, extends the civil war by supporting radical muslim terrorist groups, disgusting. Between the saudis, the israelis and all the partner building with islamist groups, the USA and co have become the new axis of evil, how ironic. :D

https://southfront.org/israeli-sold...e-to-wounded-terrorists-near-quneitra-photos/

Video shows Israeli commandos save Islamic militants from the Syrian warzone | Daily Mail Online

Also, without the thousands of Hezbollah front line fighters the regime would be in shambles, let's not fool ourselves
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Even if none of that had happened, terrorism would still be rife. Because the real catalyst is the demographic, all these minorities that largely don't integrate, low birth rates of the native population and influx of millions and millions more.

I don't need to go back to what happened in 1961 to make sense of things.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Even if none of that had happened, terrorism would still be rife.
That's not true.

Decades of flawed Western policy in the region and meddling is largely to blame for the present state of affairs. From propping up leaders who were never elected, to creating artificial borders to being very selective and hypocritical when it comes to human rights, justice and democracy; flawed policies have created a lot of discontent with the people of the Middle East. Instead of rectifying those mistakes and getting down to the root causes as to why people would join or have sympathy for groups like IS; the West appears to have no clear strategy as to winning the support of those in the region. It talks about undemocratic Assad yet keeps largely silent about the leaders of Saudi, Qatar and the UAE.

It protests [rightly so] when civilians are killed in Syria but has remained largely silent about civilians killed in Yemen. Instead of joining in the effort to defeat IS, Western allies like Saudi would rather concentrate their efforts in Yemen and to what purpose? Despite all the talks and agreements; Israel still occupies lands it doesn't own - in clear violation of international law and we wonder why many Palestinians are disgruntled? Of all the countries in the region; Iranians are probably the most Western friendly and Iran has many common interests in the West and has cooperated with the West over certain issues; yet we still how certain people talking as if Iran has a plans to conquer the region of wipe out the West with nukes.

This will be of no immediate relief to European countries who are flooded with refugees but the fact that these refugees decided to go to the West rather than go along with IS's fantasy of creating a caliphate is a very good sign as it shows that these people are rejecting IS. Sadly, apart from the time honoured method of relying on military means to defeat IS, the West appears to have no long term plan as to how to defeat IS and groups like it by winning over the support of people in the region and giving them a better alternative. People don't wake up in the morning and decide to become a terrorist at the spur of the moment. There are various reasons why people become terrorists and we should really be looking at a long term solution aimed at countering terrorist propaganda.

THE FIRST PARIS MASSACRE « Eric Margolis
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Iran might have some common interests with the West but it's regime is hardly any better than SA, Qater, or UAE. The only thing that will fix the ME is the obsolescence of oil as an energy source.
 
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