Ukranian Crisis

[swerve]

Interesting. That's good info.

The last export chart I saw was old, but colored metals were a big part of the export. But I have to wonder, where is natural gas in that export chart? In the top 5 it lists raw aluminum at 1.5%. Natural gas certainly makes up more then 1.5% of Russian export. Why is it not mentioned at all? Some other questions. Russia exports weapons to the tune of 15 bln every year. But that doesn't seem to appear anywhere. I also have to wonder about how small the export of nuclear reactors is, according to this source. I've always thought it was more significant then that, given how much of the world market is controlled by Rosatom. According to Russian sources, it has 20% of the world market. Iirc Scientific American even did an article on it a few issues back.

1. "petroleum gas" is natural gas.
2. Exports differs from stock, & the world market includes Russia. How many new reactors, outside Russia, is Rosatom currently building?

PS. Just seen a chart from 2009, which puts 18% of new reactors (over a certain size) worldwide under construction as in the Russian Federation. There's your answer. All domestic, not exports.

 

[2007yellow430]

1. "petroleum gas" is natural gas.
2. Exports differs from stock, & the world market includes Russia. How many new reactors, outside Russia, is Rosatom currently building?

PS. Just seen a chart from 2009, which puts 18% of new reactors (over a certain size) worldwide under construction as in the Russian Federation. There's your answer. All domestic, not exports.

Aren't the building one in Iran? I thought that was their construction. I believe it's almost finished.

Iran and Russia sign on to build more nuclear plants at Bushehr | JPost | Israel News

Art

 

[nkvd]

Ukraine: Stop sending us Crimea mail
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rc...PEQykZCIUTZlhZuow&sig2=ZdVqxogFef_k1nAuLp0cqQ here is an interesting but obscure article-apologies if you have read it before

 

[Feanor]

1. "petroleum gas" is natural gas.
2. Exports differs from stock, & the world market includes Russia. How many new reactors, outside Russia, is Rosatom currently building?

PS. Just seen a chart from 2009, which puts 18% of new reactors (over a certain size) worldwide under construction as in the Russian Federation. There's your answer. All domestic, not exports.

Finland, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Armenia, Czech Republic, Venezuela, Jordan, Hungary, Turkey, Belarus... those are all export. It's possible the 20% number itself is old or wrong.

Russia advances some $14 Bln for Hungarian nuclear reactor build-out in dicey environmental bet — Bellona.org

There's actually some good info on Russian domestic reactor construction, here:
Nuclear Power in Russia | Russian Nuclear Energy

That having been said, I'll concede the main point. Russia suffers from a serious case (at least) of Dutch disease, and export reflects that quite well. That having been said, there are a lot of other industries in Russia that are as important to Russia as oil is (though maybe not to those in power).

 

[Feanor]

It did in the long term. The Soviet model was failing, & anything dependent on it was doomed. When I visited the Baltics in 1995, there was dereliction long predating the fall of the USSR. The lack of anything new (except for a few very new buildings) was striking. I'd been to Comecon countries in the early 1980s, & then what struck me was the crudeness of many products.

Interesting. I'd love to hear more about your trips there. Many products certainly were crude, but the counter side of that is the reliability and durability of the product. In the last 10 years my parents have gone through 3 fancy American can openers. But we still have the ancient (decades old) soviet one, that involved stabbing the can, and then using muscle to cut the lid off. I'm not an expert on the infrastructure of the Baltics in the '80s. I can only comment on what I've seen there much later, and what I've read, so I take your word for it.

22% in 22 years (census to census, 1989-2011), & it had grown 6.6% in the previous decade.
Note the difference between Latvians & inhabitants of Latvia. And consider differential migration patterns. The Russian (as in ethnic Russian & Russian citizen) share of the population has fallen sharply. It was increasing fast up to the 1989 census, & has fallen by 38.5% since then. That accounts for the bulk of the decline in population. Only 14% of the decline has been from the falling number of self-identified Latvians. Latvians were 75.5% of the population in the last pre-war census, & 52% (& declining) in 1989. How'd you like to be turned into a minority in your own country by a government you thought of as foreign? There were fewer of them than in 1935, & only 5% more than in 1897.

How much of that difference is because of self-identification changing? That having been said, demographic decline is demographic decline. That having been said, do you have a source, ideally with some additional info?

Much the same in Estonia. Three quarters of the fall in population is from emigration of Russians (mostly), Ukrainians & Belarussians.

Same as above.

Remember that very many of those Russians were born in Russia, & had no attachment to Latvia. They were also disproportionately employed in the industries which failed when their markets in the former USSR were cut off (partly because Russia switched to buying from factories in Russia whenever there was that option). Born in Russia, no job in Latvia, don't speak Latvian - why not go home? Some were not welcome, as I heard from the son of a Red Army general in Riga. Many senior officers had retired to Latvia, & generally returned to Russia ASAP. The son told me it was made clear to the family that everyone else was welcome to stay, & he preferred Latvia, because of the more open society, 'even before independence', he said. His father had just started talking to him again, after a few years.

The restoration of expropriated property also encouraged a lot of Russian officials to leave, as their state-provided housing suddenly became the property of the heirs of the former owners, from who it had been stolen by the USSR.

That's a fancy way of saying they were kicked out of their homes by the new government. But yes, that's definitely an issue.

Also remember that the huge increase in Russian population was a deliberate state policy. Factories were built, & the work forces imported. Incentives were given to move to the Baltics. The locals might have preferred not to have so much of that sort of investment.

Not all the investment was of that nature. It would be interesting to see detailed numbers on that issue, though I suspect we never will.

I didn't say the USSR was exclusively to blame. But consider what it did, before the Wehrmacht rolled in: it tried to decapitate Baltic society. Tens of thousands were deported, of who many died, & thousands executed, for the crimes of being trade union organisers (of independent unions), journalists, members of political parties, having publicly criticised the USSR or Stalin, being in the army, etc. And their families. 5% of the population of Estonia, & almost 2% of the population of Latvia, was deported (mostly) or executed between Soviet occupation in 1940 & German invasion in 1941. Larger numbers followed after re-occupation in 1944.

I didn't try, it succeeded. It was an intentional, deliberate, and well practiced move aimed at fundamentally altering Baltic society, and bringing it into Soviet society. It certainly was an ugly and lethal move to make, and not one that makes the USSR look good.

See above for the population - & would it be any less depressing if they'd stayed with Russia? What are small Russian towns like these days? Collapsing populations, according to the censuses, & from what I've heard, decaying. I read complaints that Moscow gets everything, & the regional income statistics certainly support that, showing great increases in inequality.

Small towns? Bad. An effort is being made to improve the situation, but it's falling woefully short. Generally the provinces are a problematic issue. They can't pay for their own infrastructure, and they don't have much hope of becoming profitable. The administrations spend money in regional centers because they live there themselves, and because it's where higher ups are likely to show up. The smaller the town the worse things are.

BTW, one of the reasons for their rapid re-orientation westwards after independence is that Russia pretty much forced them into it, e.g. by imposing extra tariffs on them.

Yes, the Yeltsin government did a lot of stupid and unfriendly things towards former Union neighbors and allies.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

In Lugansk a second ring of barricades has been built, and the population is mobilized. Locals continue to report that government forces are moving against them but so far nothing has happened.

Colonel Cassad -
Colonel Cassad -

In Kharkov the government crackdown was done by units from a different part of the country, under the guise of counter-terrorism, after local police and police brought from Poltava has refused to take out the protesters.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Õàðüêîâå íà÷àëàñü àíòèòåððîðèñòè÷åñêàÿ îïåðàöèÿ, êîòîðàÿ èäåò "áåç îãëÿäêè íà ìåñòíûå íþàíñû". Êèåâ ãîòîâ ê øòóðìó çàõâà÷åííûõ çäàíèé

A telling photo allegedly of Ukrainian VDV.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ОÑобенноÑти вооружений ВДВ Украины

Greystone Ltd. has officially been sighted in Ukraine. All the rumors from earlier have materialized. Unofficial sources claim that Ukrainian oligarchs, not the government, has hired them, to get them into the country. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated their concern over their use against protesters.

u_96:
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÌÈÄ ÐÔ îáåñïîêîåí ñòÿãèâàíèåì ñèë àðìèè Óêðàèíû íà âîñòîê ñòðàíû, óãðîçîé ãðàæäàíñêîé âîéíû è ó÷àñòèåì â îïåðàöèè ñïåöèàëèñòîâ èç ÑØÀ

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting. I'd love to hear more about your trips there. Many products certainly were crude, but the counter side of that is the reliability and durability of the product. In the last 10 years my parents have gone through 3 fancy American can openers. But we still have the ancient (decades old) soviet one, that involved stabbing the can, and then using muscle to cut the lid off.

Forgive the little off topic reply here. The "counter side" is the products we now receive from China. Durable goods used to be washers, dryers, kitchen top appliances. The Chinese definition of durable is a few years (if you are lucky) because this is what Wal-Mart demanded. Unfortunately, this marketing strategy is spreading to the defence industry.

 

[Feanor]

Forgive the little off topic reply here. The "counter side" is the products we now receive from China. Durable goods used to be washers, dryers, kitchen top appliances. The Chinese definition of durable is a few years (if you are lucky) because this is what Wal-Mart demanded. Unfortunately, this marketing strategy is spreading to the defence industry.

China isn't alone in this. What current American car could be exploited with minimal maintenance on Russian roads for 30 years? My grandfathers Zhiguli did. And at the end he sold it for 1000$.

It has do with built in obsolescence. If a car runs for 30 years, you can't sell a new one every 5. If a cell phone doesn't break, how will you sell phone cases? And new cells?



But anyways, this is wildly off-topic. Sorry for dragging this conversation on a tangent.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

51 people have left the Lugansk SBU building, without weapons. The building is still under the protesters control.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èç çàõâà÷åííîãî çäàíèÿ ÑÁÓ â Ëóãàíñêå ïî ðåçóëüòàòàì ïåðåãîâîðîâ âûøåë 51 ÷åëîâåê áåç îðóæèÿ

Meanwhile in L'vov, Right Sector and the Afghan Hundred, seized a government administration building.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âî Ëüâîâå ìèòèíãóþùèå âçÿëè øòóðìîì çäàíèå îáëàñòíîé ïðîêóðàòóðû

Ukraine and Russia have finished negotiations about returning all military ships and aircraft from Crimea.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ è Óêðàèíà äîãîâîðèëèñü î âûâåäåíèè âñåõ óêðàèíñêèõ êîðàáëåé è ñàìîëåòîâ èç Êðûìà

In Donetsk 800 armed activists that are organized remain in the OGA building, with mobile groups moving around the city, available to respond quickly. Unorganized activists are all over the place, ~1000 in front of the OGA. They expect to have 5000-7000 ready if pro-government forces appear.

*

Meanwhile a couple of photos of the temporary facilities, awaiting Ukrainian military personnel who left Crimea.

ЛОГОВО ÐЕТОЛЕÐ*ÐÐТÐОГО СÐ*ЕДÐЕВЕКОВОГО ÐœÐ*ÐКОБЕСР- Тема коек от минобороны укрейна

EDIT:

Ukrainian MVD promises to clear the situation in Eastern Ukraine in 48 hours. They're also enhancing prison punishments for crimes like capturing government buildings.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÌÂÄ Óêðàèíû îáåùàåò çà 48 ÷àñîâ ðàçðåøèòü ñèòóàöèþ íà âîñòîêå ñòðàíû. Çàõâàòèâøèå çäàíèå ÑÁÓ â Ëóãàíñêå âñå åùå åãî íå ïîêèíóëè

In Lugansk the demonstrators confirm that they are NOT negotiating, and are ready to fight if the government attacks. Meanwhile APCs have been seen in the streets of Lugansk.

Colonel Cassad -

More info on allegedly western private military in Donetsk. This comes after the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed concerns over the presence of foreign PMCs in Ukraine. The photo is allegedly from Donetsk.

Colonel Cassad -
red_odysseus -

Ukraine has halted pumping gas out of Russia, due to price disagreements.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíà ïðåêðàòèëà çàêà÷êó ðîññèéñêîãî ãàçà â ñâîè õðàíèëèùà

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

The Ukrainian government is concentrating military units near Donetsk. Artillery has been sighted, and there are unconfirmed reports of tanks. A BMD-2 has been photographed. The attack is expected at any time. Massive numbers of paramilitaries have been spotted with heavy weapons, machineguns, RPGs, and sniper rifles (SVDs probably). Soldiers from the 25th AirMobile Bde are there. There are reports of foreign mercenaries, in Ukrainian camo, speaking english. Locals think that Donetsk and Lugansk will be attacked at the same time.

In Donetsk the defenders have AKs, RPKs, grenade launchers (probably RPGs), and locally made molotov cocktails. They have a lot of ex-military. A lot of current police have crossed over to the people's side, and are among the defenders of the OGA building.

Colonel Cassad -
Colonel Cassad -

Ukrainian troop movements near Lugansk and Donetsk.

u_96:

Meanwhile Russian newspapers in Ukraine are continuing to be shut down.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âñëåä çà "Êîììåðñàíòîì" íà Óêðàèíå çàêðûëè è ãàçåòó "Æèçíü"

Russia has threatened to require advanced payment for natural gas from Ukraine, because the debts are rising and Ukraine is not paying.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí ïðèãðîçèë Óêðàèíå ïåðåõîäîì íà àâàíñîâóþ îïëàòó ãàçà è ïîÿñíèë: ïîääåðæêà Êèåâà íå ìîæåò ïðîäîëæàòüñÿ âå÷íî

Meanwhile withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Crimea is continuing.

u_96:

 

[Feanor]

I'll be out of touch for a few days, so hang tight. I'll post an update when I'm back.

 

[Comrade69]

I'll be out of touch for a few days, so hang tight. I'll post an update when I'm back.

See ya later tovarishch

Always come in here to read all your updates

 

[nkvd]

See ya later tovarishch

Always come in here to read all your updates

Agreed and thanks Feanor

 

[Viki]

Only federal status of Ukraine may guarantee peace for it.

Let's see reality in the Ukraine with our eyes open. We can't save territorial integrity of Ukraine. It has already lost Crimea. Thanks God it went peacefully. Frankly, I see it as Putin's really great victory. He looks far more humanistic and skillful than Obama. American president with his involvement in Middle East was like a bull in a China shop just. Lot's of fighting, civil wars and high death toll impress me much less, frankly. No, Americans mustn't be allowed into Ukraine. They may make such a stir there. Scared to think about possible war so near Hungary!
Sure thing, Ukraine should better stay peaceful. And Peace is possible only where there's power of law is employed to make divisions. I mean federal status of Ukraine. That is the only possible way out at present with tensions between opposites sides so high in Ukraine. And with the federalization Brussels must help Kiev. Agree absolutely with this.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

And Peace is possible only where there's power of law is employed to make divisions. I mean federal status of Ukraine.

Federalisation will just lead to the break up of Ukraine, as what happened in Crimea will be repeated in the south and east. "Unknown" (i.e. Russian/pro-Russian) gunmen will seize the new assemblies, intimidate any pro-Ukrainian politicians, force a referendum to break away and join Russia, which will be rigged to ensure a "yes" vote by cutting off pro-Ukrainian media, intimidating the populace, etc - quite possibly overseen by Russian "peacekeepers".

Ukraine cannot be forced into rearranging its constitutional affairs to suit Putin.

 

[LogisticsGuy]

Just after a deadline set by Kiev for protesters in eastern Ukraine to vacate seized buildings expired, Parliament-appointed PM Arseny Yatsenyuk pledged to push through a law allowing regional referendums in the country.

Speaking in Donetsk, one of the regions engulfed by the anti-Kiev protests, Yatsenyuk said his government wants greater autonomy for Ukrainian regions, including the abolition of the offices of capital-appointed governors.

He was speaking just as a 48-hour deadline, which Kiev gave to protesters to liberate the seized buildings, expired. Previously the central authorities threatened to use force, including that of the military and even threatened their opponents as terrorists, unless they withdrew from the buildings.

The U-turn comes after Ukraine’s elite Alpha unit reportedly refused to obey an order to besiege protester-held buildings. At a session of law enforcement officials in Donetsk, one of the Alpha commanders said that he and his men are a force intended for rescuing hostages and fighting terrorism and will only act in accordance with the law, local media reported.

The unconfirmed act of defiance comes days after the siege by police of a protesters-seized building in Kharkov, which ended with dozens of activists being arrested. On Thursday, a local police lieutenant-colonel spoke to the media, claiming that he and other officers had been deceived by the Kiev authorities. He claimed that they were sent to take over the building under the pretext that it was held by dangerous armed bandits. In fact the protesters had only improvised clubs and offered no resistance to the storming troops.

The officer, Andrey Chuikov, said he would no longer take “criminal” orders and announced his resignation from the police, adding that he would be sacked anyway by his superiors for speaking to the press.

Kiev backpedals on referendums after deadline to stop protest expires — RT News

 

[Feanor]

Federalisation will just lead to the break up of Ukraine, as what happened in Crimea will be repeated in the south and east. "Unknown" (i.e. Russian/pro-Russian) gunmen will seize the new assemblies, intimidate any pro-Ukrainian politicians, force a referendum to break away and join Russia, which will be rigged to ensure a "yes" vote by cutting off pro-Ukrainian media, intimidating the populace, etc - quite possibly overseen by Russian "peacekeepers".

Ukraine cannot be forced into rearranging its constitutional affairs to suit Putin.

Actually no. Federalization was Russia's plan for winding down the situation. And now it doesn't look like that will be possible. The whole pro-Russian gunmen thing is already happening.

 

[Feanor]

Here's an interesting map of the regions where Donbass (Donetsk Region) militias have formed.

Colonel Cassad -

Note the photos of the militia. Apparently there was an incident where government BTRs opened fire, near a protester barricade, and accidentally injured a local fisherman, near Slavyansk.

Colonel Cassad -

Also in Slavyansk, Right Sector opened fire on local pro-Russian demonstrators, during a stand-off between local self-defense militias, and Ukrainian MVD. There are wounded, possibly dead. Small fire fights have occurred around the city edges between Right Sector fighters and the local self-defense militia. The central MVD units (special unit Jaguar) is so far standing by, with several helos, and BTRs.

Colonel Cassad -
Colonel Cassad -
http://azlok.livejournal.com/934078.html

A Ukrainian MVD transport was shot up near Slavyansk, killing and wounding several service members. The Kiev government claims the shots were fired from behind a human shield of protesters.

The National Guard btln, recently formed, is being deployed to the area.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1265507.html

It looks like OSCE observers have also visited Slavyansk.

http://azlok.livejournal.com/934796.html

Also a random car was shot up in downtown Slavyansk, by unknown person. This might be ordinary criminal activity.

http://newsru.com/world/13Apr2014/rastrelslav.html

In Atermovsk local pro-Russian demonstrators disarmed an MVD unit, and took their weapons.

Colonel Cassad -

In Kramatorsk the local MVD building was stormed by pro-Russian militias. Note the equipment and weapons.

Colonel Cassad -
http://azlok.livejournal.com/933308.html

In Donetsk, large sections of local police have joined with the militias, as has the local Berkut. The photos are a mix from Donetsk and Slavyansk. You can clearly see that there are general masses of disorganized pro-Russian protesters, and a smaller, well organized, and armed, militia.

Colonel Cassad -

In Donbass, smaller towns continue to fall to local militias, with some local governments declared untrustworthy. Demands are being made to these officials by the protesters and militia. In Donetsk itself, the militia is starting to look more like a military, with checkpoints at city entrances and a "people's army" being formed.

Colonel Cassad -

Protesters have retaken government buildings in Kharkov, from which they were violently expelled earlier. The total numbers appear to be too high to disperse easily. A much smaller pro-Ukraine rally (with Right Sector in attendance, as well as ordinary people) was attacked violently. The police stood by and did nothing.

Colonel Cassad -
Colonel Cassad -

Also in Kharkov, a pro-Ukraine rally was beaten and dispersed by pro-Russian demonstrators. This is likely retaliation for the events in Nikolaev.

http://newsru.com/world/13apr2014/kharkov.html

Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs intends to prove Russian special services involvement in organizing the anti-government protests.

http://newsru.com/world/13apr2014/evidence.html

Ukrainian MVD is forming another paramilitary. The territorial defense forces. They will formed out of Ukrainian patriots in Donbass and Lugansk, and will be used to combat the "separatists". Numbers are declared at 12 thousand, and they will be issued equipment and weapons. To me this sounds like they're arming whoever they can in a desperate bid to have some sort of combat forces.

http://newsru.com/world/13apr2014/avakovspec.html

An official "counter-terrorist" operation has been declared in Slavyansk, by the Kiev government.

http://newsru.com/world/13apr2014/turchinov.html

Russia demands an emergency evaluation of the situation in the Ukrainian south-east, by the UN Security Council, and the OSCE.

http://newsru.com/russia/13apr2014/midrfukreast.html

Russia has demanded from Ukraine, to cease aggression against their own people.

http://eagle-rost.livejournal.com/153423.html

Meanwhile the handover of Ukrainian ships from Crimea back to Ukraine, is continuing.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3334549.html

 

[swerve]

Let's see reality in the Ukraine with our eyes open. We can't save territorial integrity of Ukraine. It has already lost Crimea. Thanks God it went peacefully. Frankly, I see it as Putin's really great victory. He looks far more humanistic and skillful than Obama. American president with his involvement in Middle East was like a bull in a China shop just. Lot's of fighting, civil wars and high death toll impress me much less, frankly.

I can't take seriously someone who suggests that Obama started wars in the Middle East, or behaved like a bull in a china shop.

 

[wittmanace]

I can't take seriously someone who suggests that Obama started wars in the Middle East, or behaved like a bull in a china shop.

I would be curious to hear which wars are referred to here? As I write this i see that I am quoting someone quoting someone...I don't know why. My question is directed at user VIKI. Also, are you referring to Syria when you say civil wars? Not even McCain says Obama caused that.....Or do you mean Iraq? Though I don't see how Obama caused that either.