Israel was an early user of Patriot, and I recall that the initial versions of Patriot did not perform that great, whereas the Iron Dome worked quite well even at a quite early stage of development. Later versions of Patriot also worked much better than the initial versions. This is speculation, but could it be that some Israeli tech was at some point integrated into Patriot...? That could explain why Patriot could not be shared. Another explanation could perhaps be availability of Patriot systems?
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #282
There are signs that the invasion might not come after all. I'll do an update post later today, and the information is conflicting, but some Russian units from South and East have apparently begun returning to garrison. Also Shoygu the MinDef, is in Syria, visiting the Khmeimeem airbase, where large scale exercises have begun involving practicing for maritime strike missions by Tu-22M3s and MiG-31Ks.
Steinmetz
Active Member
Let's hope that is true. Coincides with the Duma requesting Putin to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as independent. That's an extra trump card up his sleeve. Very costly endeavor to re-position all those units west, I'm sure that there'll be quite a bit of units left around Belarus and the Ukrainian border in general. I can't see Russia sending back all their units to the garrison.
Russia's parliament asks Putin to recognise breakaway east Ukrainian regions
Also coming off the heels of the Scholz/Putin meeting. Excerpts:
Putin Meets New German Chancellor Scholz: Germany Is Our Largest Trade & Economic Partner In Europe
Did You Forget About Illegal NATO Military Operation Against Serbia In Europe?
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
A semi-permanent Russian military presence increase in its western borders, along with the looming threat of invasion, have already and will embolden Russia's neighbors to keep arming to negate some of Russia's strategic advantages and assets.
If Russia doesn't invade, it may create an unfavorable situation for Russia - it reminded its perceived enemies to remain watchful, after their many years of deterioration in military capability.
It will also give Ukraine more breathing space to modernize and beef up.
Ironically, despite Ukraine's need to improve capabilities, it calls for a massive increase in servicemen, which stands counter to modernization efforts.
If Russia doesn't invade, it may create an unfavorable situation for Russia - it reminded its perceived enemies to remain watchful, after their many years of deterioration in military capability.
It will also give Ukraine more breathing space to modernize and beef up.
Ironically, despite Ukraine's need to improve capabilities, it calls for a massive increase in servicemen, which stands counter to modernization efforts.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #285
There's all kinds of reasons. There's the question of how Ukraine would pay for this. There's the quantity issue (deploying enough to matter would be difficult and expensive). There's the integration question, they're incompatible with Ukraine's existing air defense grid. There's the security angle, data on the system could leak to Russia. There's the training angle, how long would it take. Overall neither request was necessarily well conceived. In my opinion, the US aid package to Ukraine is well structured to provide the most bang for the buck, big ticket items are expensive to provide, expensive to maintain, and you need quite a few to get the desired effect.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #286
Update.
Belarus.
United Resolve 2022 exercises are continuing, with joint aerial patrols, and Tochka missile launches from the Belorussian side. No word so far on Iskanders participating in the launches, despite quite a few being in the area, and a convoy carrying extra munitions for them being spotted.
One of the interesting details is the Su-35S flying around with 4 R-77-1s and 2 R-73s. Aside from the irony that this is exactly the kind of payload the F-35 was wrongly criticized for, this is a rare case of Russian jets flying with more then 2 R-77s.
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
Troop movements continue despite the commencement of exercises and the announcement of troops returning to garrison.
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
In the Belorussian segment of the Chernobyl exclusion zone a pontoon bridge has been spotted, 6 kms from the Ukrainian border.
vk.com
There are now 32 Russian Su-25SM in Belarus.
vk.com
Russia.
4th Tank Div. elements in Belgorod region, near the Ukrainian border. Some are seen moving on tracks under their own power.
vk.com
vk.com
Buk-M3s near the Ukrainian border.
vk.com
TOS-1s in Lipetsk region.
vk.com
A truck column with Iskander missiles, not launchers, has been spotted near the Ukrainian border. It appears to be a supply column.
vk.com
Helos near Belgorod.
vk.com
The units that appear to be returning to garrison as some units in South MD. But South MD never saw this buildup in general. Some units were on high alert, and on training grounds, but not concentrated en masse near the border. This strongly suggests that Russia doesn't anticipate a Ukrainian push into the Donbass. Otherwise units would be ready to move in and support the rebels.
vk.com
Millerovo airfield in Rostov region has taken 11 Su-25 dive-bombers, the airfield normally hosts Su-30SMs from the 31st Fighter Rgt.
vk.com
In Crimea the recently empty Novoozernoye airfield is now hosting almost 70 helos of varying types.
Footage of Russian troops in Crimea.
vk.com
Mariya Zakharova, a major figure in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs press relations, claimed that February 16th instead of a day of invasion will be the day Russian troops will head back to garrisons.
Russian state Duma has passed a recongition of LDNR as sovereign states, and has forwarded this to Putin, who has so far dismissed it, claiming that the way to move forward is the Minsk accords. Meanwhile, Dmitriy Kuleba, has stated that an acceptance of the Duma's recognition would be regarded as a de-facto departure from the Minsk accords by Russia.
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
vk.com
iz.ru
vk.com
Ukraine.
A number of cyber attacks against Ukrainian government websites have been reported.
vk.com
Ukraine's Ministry of Defense claims that Russia hasn't created strike groups on any axis to invade Ukraine.
topwar.ru
Part of the Stinger handover to Ukraine from Lithuania are some Humvees. The systems themselves are paired launchers. The delivery also included body armor.
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
Ukrainian service members vacation and leaves are being cancelled.
vk.com
An evacuation commission has been formed in Kiev.
vk.com
Ukraine's ambassador to the UK has corrected his earlier statement saying that Ukraine is ready for concessions but not on NATO membership.
vk.com
It appears the entire US embassy will move to L'vov for the time being.
vk.com
ria.ru
Allegedly a session of the Rada took place where only 24 deputies showed up, out of 450.
Gazprom has cut their transit through Ukraine in half.
topwar.ru
A direct phone call took place between Ukrainian and Belorussian MinDefs for the first time in months. The agreed on visits of military attaches from Ukraine to the United Resolve 2022 exercises in Belorus, and a Belorussian attache's visit to Ukraine's Snowstorm-2022 exercises.
topwar.ru
The US has handed over equipment and vehicles to Ukrainian police.
vk.com
Trucks handed over to Ukrainian border guards by the US have shown up for sale on the internet.
Ukrainian state debt is rapidly being sold off on international markets.
The West.
US military activity in Poland continues, a Blackhawk helo was seen landing on a road, near the Ukrainian border. An SUV approached it for approximately 5 minutes, the helo then took off. In Gdyne the US has completed the unloading of equipment. US F-15s have arrived in Poland. A US C-17 has arrived in Zheshue, near the Ukrainian border. Cargo is unknown. A train with US armor has been spotted in Poland, destination unknown. A column of US Humvees near Melets was spotted, destination unknown.
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
German PzH-2000 are being deployed to Lithuania.
vk.com
The hand off of recon aircraft over Ukraine.
vk.com
vk.com
The Baltic states are calling for an OSCE meeting to discuss Russian military activity in Belarus.
topwar.ru
G-7 has announced readiness to impose sanctions on Russia.
tass.ru
Poland is anticipating an influx of Ukrainian refugees.
Canadian service members are also leaving Ukraine.
topwar.ru
Belarus.
United Resolve 2022 exercises are continuing, with joint aerial patrols, and Tochka missile launches from the Belorussian side. No word so far on Iskanders participating in the launches, despite quite a few being in the area, and a convoy carrying extra munitions for them being spotted.
One of the interesting details is the Su-35S flying around with 4 R-77-1s and 2 R-73s. Aside from the irony that this is exactly the kind of payload the F-35 was wrongly criticized for, this is a rare case of Russian jets flying with more then 2 R-77s.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Troop movements continue despite the commencement of exercises and the announcement of troops returning to garrison.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
In the Belorussian segment of the Chernobyl exclusion zone a pontoon bridge has been spotted, 6 kms from the Ukrainian border.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
There are now 32 Russian Su-25SM in Belarus.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russia.
4th Tank Div. elements in Belgorod region, near the Ukrainian border. Some are seen moving on tracks under their own power.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Buk-M3s near the Ukrainian border.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
TOS-1s in Lipetsk region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A truck column with Iskander missiles, not launchers, has been spotted near the Ukrainian border. It appears to be a supply column.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Helos near Belgorod.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
The units that appear to be returning to garrison as some units in South MD. But South MD never saw this buildup in general. Some units were on high alert, and on training grounds, but not concentrated en masse near the border. This strongly suggests that Russia doesn't anticipate a Ukrainian push into the Donbass. Otherwise units would be ready to move in and support the rebels.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Millerovo airfield in Rostov region has taken 11 Su-25 dive-bombers, the airfield normally hosts Su-30SMs from the 31st Fighter Rgt.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
In Crimea the recently empty Novoozernoye airfield is now hosting almost 70 helos of varying types.
Footage of Russian troops in Crimea.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Mariya Zakharova, a major figure in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs press relations, claimed that February 16th instead of a day of invasion will be the day Russian troops will head back to garrisons.
Russian state Duma has passed a recongition of LDNR as sovereign states, and has forwarded this to Putin, who has so far dismissed it, claiming that the way to move forward is the Minsk accords. Meanwhile, Dmitriy Kuleba, has stated that an acceptance of the Duma's recognition would be regarded as a de-facto departure from the Minsk accords by Russia.
Госдума РФ признала ДНР и ЛНР
Госдума РФ проголосовала за признание ДНР и ЛНР. Государственная дума поддержала отправку обращения к Президенту России Владимиру Путину о признании независимости самопровозглашенных Донецкой и Луганской народных республик, сообщает корреспондент The Moscow Post. Как следует из данных голосования…
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
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vk.com
Путин прокомментировал обращение депутатов о признании ДНР и ЛНР
Президент России Владимир Путин прокомментировал обращение депутатов Госдумы о необходимости признания самопровозглашенных Донецкой и Луганской народных республик (ДНР и ЛНР).
iz.ru
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vk.com
Ukraine.
A number of cyber attacks against Ukrainian government websites have been reported.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukraine's Ministry of Defense claims that Russia hasn't created strike groups on any axis to invade Ukraine.
Украинский министр обороны: Российские войска не создали ударной группировки ни на одном из направлений
На Украине продолжают комментировать заявления американской разведки о том, что российские войска якобы собираются начать наступление 15-16 февраля. Напомним, что несколько дней назад и лично президент США Джо Байден позволил себе такого рода заявление, что вызвало недоумение даже в Киеве. Тогда
topwar.ru
Part of the Stinger handover to Ukraine from Lithuania are some Humvees. The systems themselves are paired launchers. The delivery also included body armor.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian service members vacation and leaves are being cancelled.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
An evacuation commission has been formed in Kiev.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukraine's ambassador to the UK has corrected his earlier statement saying that Ukraine is ready for concessions but not on NATO membership.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
It appears the entire US embassy will move to L'vov for the time being.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
США перенесли посольство на Украине из Киева во Львов
США временно переносят посольство на Украине из Киева во Львов, заявил госсекретарь Энтони Блинкен. РИА Новости, 14.02.2022
ria.ru
Allegedly a session of the Rada took place where only 24 deputies showed up, out of 450.
Gazprom has cut their transit through Ukraine in half.
«Газпром» вдвое снизил объём прокачиваемого через Украину газа
Пока весь мир обсуждает "вторжение" России на Украину, российский "Газпром" продолжает поставки газа в Европу через украинскую ГТС, не опасаясь начала военных действий на ее территории, которые пророчат США. Правда прокачиваемые через Украину объемы газа упали почти вдвое.
topwar.ru
A direct phone call took place between Ukrainian and Belorussian MinDefs for the first time in months. The agreed on visits of military attaches from Ukraine to the United Resolve 2022 exercises in Belorus, and a Belorussian attache's visit to Ukraine's Snowstorm-2022 exercises.
Впервые за несколько месяцев состоялись телефонные переговоры глав Минобороны Украины и Белоруссии
Впервые за несколько месяцев состоялись прямые телефонные переговоры между представителями правительств Украины и Белоруссии. Пресс-служба украинского военного ведомства подтверждает информацию о том, что сегодня глава министерства Алексей Резников поговорил по телефону со своим белорусским
topwar.ru
The US has handed over equipment and vehicles to Ukrainian police.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Trucks handed over to Ukrainian border guards by the US have shown up for sale on the internet.
Ukrainian state debt is rapidly being sold off on international markets.
The West.
US military activity in Poland continues, a Blackhawk helo was seen landing on a road, near the Ukrainian border. An SUV approached it for approximately 5 minutes, the helo then took off. In Gdyne the US has completed the unloading of equipment. US F-15s have arrived in Poland. A US C-17 has arrived in Zheshue, near the Ukrainian border. Cargo is unknown. A train with US armor has been spotted in Poland, destination unknown. A column of US Humvees near Melets was spotted, destination unknown.
VK.com | VK
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vk.com
German PzH-2000 are being deployed to Lithuania.
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The hand off of recon aircraft over Ukraine.
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vk.com
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vk.com
The Baltic states are calling for an OSCE meeting to discuss Russian military activity in Belarus.
Страны Балтии созвали заседание ОБСЕ по причине «необычной военной активности» на территории Белоруссии
Страны Балтии озабочены "военной активностью" на территории Белоруссии и в связи с этим обратились в ОБСЕ. Об этом сообщает пресс-служба польской миссии в Организации по безопасности и сотрудничеству в Европе. Польша, на сегодняшний день председательствующая в ОБСЕ, получила запрос от
topwar.ru
G-7 has announced readiness to impose sanctions on Russia.
Страны G7 готовы ввести санкции против экономики России
В заявлении министров финансов G7 говорится, что "любая дальнейшая военная агрессия" России против Украины будет встречена быстрым и скоординированным силовым ответом
tass.ru
Poland is anticipating an influx of Ukrainian refugees.
Canadian service members are also leaving Ukraine.
Канадское командование вслед за США и Британией начало вывод своих военных с территории Украины
Стало известно о том, что вслед за Британией и США своих военных с территории Украины начинает выводить Канада. По последним данным, вывод канадских военнослужащих начинается сегодня, 13 февраля. Речь в первую очередь идёт об инструкторах. Обращает на себя внимание то, как Оттава аргументирует
topwar.ru
Ukraine asks for urgent OSCE meeting to discuss the Russian buildup close to Ukraine, and in annexed Crimea.
Ukraine Seeks Urgent Russia-OSCE Meeting Over Troop Buildup - The Moscow Times
Jens Stoltenberg says there is reason to be "cautious optimistic" after the Russian statements of troops pullback, however, so far they have not noticed any de-escalation on the ground, on the contrary, they still see Russian military build-up. He also says that they are still open to diplomacy, and urge Russia to engage in diplomatic activities. He also points out that Russia has not responded to written proposals sent from NATO to Russia on January 26.
NATO - Opinion: Doorstep statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of the meetings of NATO Defence Ministers in Brussels, 16-Feb.-2022
Ukraine Seeks Urgent Russia-OSCE Meeting Over Troop Buildup - The Moscow Times
Jens Stoltenberg says there is reason to be "cautious optimistic" after the Russian statements of troops pullback, however, so far they have not noticed any de-escalation on the ground, on the contrary, they still see Russian military build-up. He also says that they are still open to diplomacy, and urge Russia to engage in diplomatic activities. He also points out that Russia has not responded to written proposals sent from NATO to Russia on January 26.
NATO - Opinion: Doorstep statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of the meetings of NATO Defence Ministers in Brussels, 16-Feb.-2022
Fair enough but the Russians can and have said that war isn't inevitable, that they're still pursuing diplomacy and that Russia's security concerns have not been addressed. It's a two street. All due respect to the esteemed head of NATO but unless certain compromises are made by both sides, this crisis will not be solved.
Most what is aid by NATO and various leaders keep repeating the same theme, Russian provocations, the need for Russia to step back, devastating and painful sanctions if the Russians invade and NATO's determination to defend its territiory. Only the German Chancellor said something new, that some of Russia's demands are worthy of discussion.
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Not responding at all makes it difficult to move the process forward. Stoltenberg has been meeting the Russian foreign minister at the Munich conference every year since he became head of NATO. However this year he cannot meet Lavrov since Lavrov is not going this year.
Anyway, there are now reports that Russia has added 7000 troops close to Ukraine the last few days. Quite the opposite of what they said they would do beginning of this week.
Adding more troops while claiming to do the opposite is not very diplomatic, to say the least. This looks like either pure blackmail, or they are really going for an invasion.
US official: Russia adds 7K more troops near Ukraine border | AP News
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #292
Update.
Belarus.
United Resolve 2022 continues. As part of the training they conducted air combat exercises between Belorussian Su-30SMs and Russian Su-35S.
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
vk.com
8 Mi-26s were found at an airfield in Minsk Region, Belarus.
vk.com
More footage of the new bridge in Pripyat region.
vk.com
Russia.
Footage of Russian units leaving Crimea as part of the claimed return of troops to garrison. Given that Crimea wasn't likely to be a major axis of advance to begin with, and given the relatively small quantities, this doesn't really change much.
vk.com
Allegedly returning to garrison are mainly units of South MD, namely the 3rd, 150th, and 42nd, Motor-Rifle Divisions.
vk.com
Although a unit from West MD, which unknown, is also allegedly withdrawing.
vk.com
T-80BVs and T-90As were seen near the Ukrainian border, in Belgorod region, moving under their own power.
vk.com
T-90M tanks from the 27th Motor-Rifles were seen near the Ukrainian border.
bmpd.livejournal.com
Helos remain active in Belgorod region.
vk.com
The Caspian Flotilla has taken to sea with 20 warships. The significance is that they have 4 ships carrying Kalibr missiles that would likely be utilized as part of strikes against Ukraine, if war should break out.
vk.com
Russia's state Investigative Committee is launching an investigation based on the alleged discovery of a mass grave of civilians in the Donbass.
EDIT: Clarification, this is the exhumation of civilians buried in improvised graves, who mostly died (allegedly) as a result of Ukrainian artillery shellings. So far there is no claim that the civilians were killed intentionally.
ria.ru
vk.com
Russia has declined to participate in OSCE consultations with Ukraine, regarding the Russian military buildup.
topwar.ru
The Rebels.
There are reports of 8 locations where Ukrainian troops have conducted mortar and AGS fires against rebel positions. The shellings range from 2 SPG-9 shots, to dozens of mortar shells. Fires are on-going. Rebel forces have returned fire.
Please note the scale of this does not show a Ukrainian offensive, yet. A much larger scale of activity would be needed. Other then unfortunate timing, this is no more then casual flare-up on the mostly static front line.
vk.com
vk.com
Ukraine.
As part of Snowstorm-2022 the Ukrainian airforce practices air strikes.
vk.com
Training's with newly delivered munitions continue. These are part of Snowstorm-2022 exercises currently on-going in Ukraine.
vk.com
vk.com
bmpd.livejournal.com
All the border guards checkpoints in Lugansk region received NLAWs.
vk.com
There are reports that owners of private planes are being notified that if they want their insurance to remain intact, they need to move their aircraft out of Ukraine.
vk.com
There are reports of politicians and oligarchs fleeing Ukraine.
vk.com
The West.
The US is deploying 1.5 thousand troops to Slovakia, and with NATO allies it will be a battlegroup of 3000 troops, allegedly one of 5 NATO battlegroups being formed in Eastern Europe, from the Baltics to Romania. 3 are planned in the Baltics, one each, a US group in Poland, and allegedly a French one in Romania.
topwar.ru
topwar.ru
US F-16s have deployed to Germany, in addition to 4 B-52s arriving in the UK, and US F-15s arriving in Poland.
topwar.ru
Footage of US helos in Zheshuv, Poland.
vk.com
Estonian intelligence claims the new invasion date is end of February. The constantly moving dates undermine the credibility of the specific claims, but the situation remains murky. It's more a case of "this date no more special then any other claimed", rather then a case of "Russia isn't invading because the west keeps crying wolf".
vk.com
topwar.ru
Poland has declared a state of emergency in response to cyber attacks on Ukraine.
topwar.ru
An allegedly complete list of military cargo flights to Ukraine since January 17th.
vk.com
An interesting comparative look at media publications about Russia potentially invading Ukraine across dates, and with comparison of some info.
aftershock.news
Belarus.
United Resolve 2022 continues. As part of the training they conducted air combat exercises between Belorussian Su-30SMs and Russian Su-35S.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
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vk.com
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vk.com
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vk.com
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vk.com
8 Mi-26s were found at an airfield in Minsk Region, Belarus.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
More footage of the new bridge in Pripyat region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russia.
Footage of Russian units leaving Crimea as part of the claimed return of troops to garrison. Given that Crimea wasn't likely to be a major axis of advance to begin with, and given the relatively small quantities, this doesn't really change much.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Allegedly returning to garrison are mainly units of South MD, namely the 3rd, 150th, and 42nd, Motor-Rifle Divisions.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Although a unit from West MD, which unknown, is also allegedly withdrawing.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
T-80BVs and T-90As were seen near the Ukrainian border, in Belgorod region, moving under their own power.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
T-90M tanks from the 27th Motor-Rifles were seen near the Ukrainian border.
Танки Т-90М на границе с Украиной
Оригинал взят у коллеги altyn73 в Эшелон танков Т-90М В рамках плановой ротации отвода сил Западного военного округа, из-под Москвы в Белгородскую область выведена 27-я мотострелковая бригада. В один населенный пункт, название которого знакомо всем исследователям Битвы на Курской дуге…
bmpd.livejournal.com
Helos remain active in Belgorod region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
The Caspian Flotilla has taken to sea with 20 warships. The significance is that they have 4 ships carrying Kalibr missiles that would likely be utilized as part of strikes against Ukraine, if war should break out.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russia's state Investigative Committee is launching an investigation based on the alleged discovery of a mass grave of civilians in the Donbass.
EDIT: Clarification, this is the exhumation of civilians buried in improvised graves, who mostly died (allegedly) as a result of Ukrainian artillery shellings. So far there is no claim that the civilians were killed intentionally.
СК возбудил дело из-за найденных в Донбассе массовых захоронений
Следственный комитет завел уголовное дело из-за найденных в Донбассе массовых захоронений мирных жителей. Об этом сообщается на сайте ведомства. РИА Новости, 16.02.2022
ria.ru
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vk.com
Russia has declined to participate in OSCE consultations with Ukraine, regarding the Russian military buildup.
Россия не будет участвовать в запрошенных Украиной консультациях ОБСЕ по Венскому документу
Россия отказалась участвовать в консультациях ОБСЕ по Венскому документу, запрошенных Украиной. Об этом заявил замглавы МИД РФ Александр Грушко. Отвечая на вопрос журналистов, касающийся обращения Украины в ОБСЕ по поводу игнорирования Россией украинского требования предоставить полный отчёт о
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The Rebels.
There are reports of 8 locations where Ukrainian troops have conducted mortar and AGS fires against rebel positions. The shellings range from 2 SPG-9 shots, to dozens of mortar shells. Fires are on-going. Rebel forces have returned fire.
Please note the scale of this does not show a Ukrainian offensive, yet. A much larger scale of activity would be needed. Other then unfortunate timing, this is no more then casual flare-up on the mostly static front line.
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Ukraine.
As part of Snowstorm-2022 the Ukrainian airforce practices air strikes.
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Training's with newly delivered munitions continue. These are part of Snowstorm-2022 exercises currently on-going in Ukraine.
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Поставленные Украине в последнее время образцы западного вооружения
Как сообщила пресс-служба президента Украины, 16 февраля 2022 года во время рабочей поездки в Ровенскую область президент Украины Владимир Зеленский проверил ход тактических учений подразделений вооруженных сил Украины и других сил безопасности и обороны в рамках командно-штабных учений…
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All the border guards checkpoints in Lugansk region received NLAWs.
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There are reports that owners of private planes are being notified that if they want their insurance to remain intact, they need to move their aircraft out of Ukraine.
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There are reports of politicians and oligarchs fleeing Ukraine.
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The West.
The US is deploying 1.5 thousand troops to Slovakia, and with NATO allies it will be a battlegroup of 3000 troops, allegedly one of 5 NATO battlegroups being formed in Eastern Europe, from the Baltics to Romania. 3 are planned in the Baltics, one each, a US group in Poland, and allegedly a French one in Romania.
Американские войска совершают марш в граничащую с Украиной Словакию
Подразделения контингента вооружённых сил США совершают из Германии марш в Словакию, имеющую общую границу с Украиной. В период до 26 февраля в эту страну должно быть переброшено 1,5 тыс. американских бойцов и 700 единиц техники, а с учётом союзников Соединённых Штатов – 3 тыс. солдат и 1 тыс.
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Пятая постоянная боевая группа НАТО будет размещена в Румынии
В Румынии будет развернута постоянная боевая группа НАТО, это будет первое развертывание группировки на южном фланге альянса, сообщил заместитель генсека НАТО Мирча Джоанэ. На территории Румынии, которая, как заявляется, сама попросила разместить постоянную боевую группу НАТО, командование будет
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US F-16s have deployed to Germany, in addition to 4 B-52s arriving in the UK, and US F-15s arriving in Poland.
В последние дни произошло три развертывания авиации США в Европе
Соединенные Штаты, пользуясь ситуацией вокруг Украины и обвиняя Россию в подготовке "вторжения", продолжают наращивать силы в Европе. Вслед за размещением наземных сил на территории Восточной Европы, произошла переброска и боевой авиации. Об этом пишет американское издание Military
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Footage of US helos in Zheshuv, Poland.
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Estonian intelligence claims the new invasion date is end of February. The constantly moving dates undermine the credibility of the specific claims, but the situation remains murky. It's more a case of "this date no more special then any other claimed", rather then a case of "Russia isn't invading because the west keeps crying wolf".
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Эстонская разведка назвала новые сроки «российского вторжения на Украину»
Эстонская разведка внесла коррективы в свой прогноз по срокам российского наступления на Украину, продолжая утверждать, что вторжение "неминуемо состоится". Об этом говорится в официальном докладе спецслужб Эстонии. В связи с неподтверждением слухов о наступлении российской армии 15 и 16
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Poland has declared a state of emergency in response to cyber attacks on Ukraine.
Польский премьер с полуночи ввёл в стране особый режим «в связи с кибератаками на Украину»
Премьер-министр Польши Матеуш Моравецкий подписал правительственное постановление о введение особого режима - чрезвычайного положения в стране. Действует этот режим с полуночи, а его введение объясняется такими словами: «Решение связано с сообщениями о предпринятой кибератаке против Украины».
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An allegedly complete list of military cargo flights to Ukraine since January 17th.
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An interesting comparative look at media publications about Russia potentially invading Ukraine across dates, and with comparison of some info.
Вторжение CNN в Украину. Мы были искренни в своих заблуждениях! (с)) (sarmat_)
Провёл аналитику публикаций CNN. По запросу у них сайте в поисковике (под катом ссылка) строки из слов: "invasion invade Ukraine" на сейчас 133 публикации (а заголовки просто прелесть). Из них с 06.11.2021г. (первая статья об "надвигающейся угрозе") 113! За 2014 год, когда была настоящая война...
I fully understand that but does spinning the same narrative over and over again actually lead to.any tangible results or does it reveal weakness on the part of NATO? I'm pretty sure the Russians would have got the message at this stage. Ultimately, to move things forward requires compromises and trade off by both sides. I doubt if the Russians are going to back off because of the threat of sanctions or because of NATO battle groups deployed in the Baltics and Poland.
I could be sabre rattling which the Russians are good at at it it could be the prelude of an invasion. On thing's for sure, the Russians can't keep their troops forward deployed and at high readiness indefinitely.
NATO and the US have presented their positions, made clear what is non negotiable, and indicated several areas that can be discussed. They are now waiting for Russia to respond. Weakness from NATO would be if they responded to Russian escalation and lack of response by submitting a new proposal, making concessions without any preceding dialog with Russia.
If Russia continues on the current path they should consider the long-term consequences, which will be the opposite of what they want: European NATO countries will increase their defense budgets, and NATO will keep more troops in Eastern European NATO countries, not less. As pointed out by Swerve a number of times, Russia (and China) should read the fable of the North Wind and the Sun.
In my opinion "sabre rattling" is too week an expression for what Russia is currently doing.
Estonian intelligence said yesterday that they are aware of 10 additional battle groups moving towards Ukraine. Their assessment is that a limited attack against Ukraine is likely. Russia 'Likely' to Launch 'Limited' Military Attack Against Ukraine, Says Estonian Intelligence | World News | US News
For weeks they have been saying that Russia's demands are non starters.
That actually is a new development. The first to openly say that some of Russia's demands are worthy of further discussion was the German Chancellor. Other NATO leaders have been repeating time and again and again the same 'Russia will be hit by devastating sanctions, Russia must cease its provocative actions and Russian troops must withdraw theme/narrative. Can't blame them as there's really nothing else to say is there? Who knows; perhaps in private or back channel discussions the narrative might be slightly different but public statements have stuck to the same reoccurring theme/narrative.
Waiting for what exactly? For Russia to say that it understands and accepts that all its security demands will not be met; that NATO can continue expanding; thus it will call it a day and fully withdraw the troops it has arounds Ukraine's borders? If that's going to happen we must as well start believing in the tooth fairy. The Russians have made clear what they want and it's only through dialogue and a level of compromise will the Russians back off; not the threat of sanctions, NATO battle groups in Poland and the Baltics or the same statements made by NATO and various leaders.
They should indeed but as indicated previously the Russians are fully aware of what they're doing and the consequences that will result if they invade. Putin plays the long game; every move has been thought out well in advance; he knows exactly how NATO will react and knows how far he can push things.
BBC and CNN report in their live feeds that Russia will provide a written response to the US later today. Let's hope that diplomacy still is an option that Russia is considering.
Last Tuesday Putin described the situation in Donbas as "genocide", during a press conference with the German Chancellor Scholz. Sounds like a not very credible pretext for additional military intervention. It's not credible for many reasons, for instance, Russian supported rebels are in control of Donbas, and although truce has not been fully implemented, it has in general been respected by both sides, is my understanding.
I think Ukraine should present an alternative option, but with several clear demands attached: They could aim for "non-alignment" outside of NATO but only if Russia returns Crimea to Ukraine, accept the Ukranian interpretation of Minsk II, and withdraw all troops from the Ukrainian borders. A pity they don't try to use Russia's own arguments against Russia... just like Russia want to push NATO troops out of Eastern Europe, Ukraine should demand that Russia keep it's troops away from Ukraine. Of course Russia would not accept those demands, but at least making those demands very clear to Russia and the world would further expose Russian hypocrisy...
The latest on the Ukraine-Russia border crisis: Live updates (cnn.com)
Ukraine-Russia crisis: No other path than Nato for Ukraine - president - BBC News
Last Tuesday Putin described the situation in Donbas as "genocide", during a press conference with the German Chancellor Scholz. Sounds like a not very credible pretext for additional military intervention. It's not credible for many reasons, for instance, Russian supported rebels are in control of Donbas, and although truce has not been fully implemented, it has in general been respected by both sides, is my understanding.
Today Ukraine accused rebels in the Donbas region for shelling a village:
Ukranian president also made it clear today that they will keep pressing for NATO membership, since Ukraine believes only NATO can guarantee Ukranian independence and security. He also admits that some European countries are against Ukrainian NATO membership.
I think Ukraine should present an alternative option, but with several clear demands attached: They could aim for "non-alignment" outside of NATO but only if Russia returns Crimea to Ukraine, accept the Ukranian interpretation of Minsk II, and withdraw all troops from the Ukrainian borders. A pity they don't try to use Russia's own arguments against Russia... just like Russia want to push NATO troops out of Eastern Europe, Ukraine should demand that Russia keep it's troops away from Ukraine. Of course Russia would not accept those demands, but at least making those demands very clear to Russia and the world would further expose Russian hypocrisy...
The latest on the Ukraine-Russia border crisis: Live updates (cnn.com)
Ukraine-Russia crisis: No other path than Nato for Ukraine - president - BBC News
If it wasn't I think Russia would have invaded a while ago. They certainly had/have the troops in place for quite a while now; maybe not enough for a drive till the Dnieper but certainly enough for an invasion of the eastern Ukraine and a land corridor to the Crimea.
Perhaps, but we don't really know. The US and UK have changed their strategy and made public a lot of intelligence information about e.g., specific potential false flag operations from Russia. It might be that Russia postponed the invasion after having their false flag operations exposed, if they deemed the risk to be too high. It's impossible to tell at this stage.
US and UK trying to fend off Russian invasion by making intelligence public | Russia | The Guardian
The US sent F-35s to Europe, specifically to Germany yesterday. No info yet on how many F-35s were transferred. In addition, 8 additional F-15s were sent to Poland on February 14.
USAF Sends F-35s, B-52s, F-15s to Europe as NATO Ministers Opt for More Deterrence - Air Force Magazine
USAF Sends F-35s, B-52s, F-15s to Europe as NATO Ministers Opt for More Deterrence - Air Force Magazine
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But would not solve anything. As the cliche goes; some are more equal than others; Russia's demands can't be totally ignored; it's still a major power and one which has a large nuclear arsenal. As much as NATO would wish for a more 'cooperative' or 'docile' Russia; isn't going to happen anytime soon. As for demanding a return of the Crimea; great in principle but dicey in reality.
It would also be a huge mistake to assume that a future more democratic Russia would be more cooperative and ready to dance to the West's tune; it could be even more assertive than a Russia under Putin.
Fair enough but the problem with U.S. and Brit intel is that since Iraq; there is quite a lot of public scepticism about how accurate they are. Granted they could not provide more details to protect their sources but ultimately we have no idea as to how credible/accurate they really are. I'm not suggesting that NATO was indulging in misinformation as part of a wider plan to deter Russia [maybe it was?]; merely questioning how accurate/credible the intel was. Also it could have also been intended for a Western audience and not necessarily for Putin.
Maybe but I could play devil's advocate and say that if indeed Russia had made a decision to ultimately invade; it would still have done so even if a false flag operation had been exposed. One plan was no longer feasible so they switched to another plan.
The West – united on Ukraine, divided on Russia
Western disagreements on the Russian military escalation in Eastern Europe play into Putin’s hand.
''By raising the alarm, US President Joe Biden does not want the West or NATO to be caught off guard again, or to live with Putin’s fait accompli. For the US president, “Putin has no soul” and therefore cannot be trusted.
By contrast, the more pragmatic Europeans, notably the Germans, do not think of Russian souls and spirits; they think of Russian gas and nukes. Europe is largely dependent on Russian energy sources, and is in a short range of its nuclear missiles. The EU is also Russia’s largest trading partner, accounting for more than a third of its total trade.
Putin made his position crystal clear in a 2007 landmark speech at the Munich Security Conference 16 years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, accusing the US of “having overstepped its national borders in every way” and denouncing its almost “uncontained hyper use of force” in a world where no one feels safe.
And for the past 15 years, the logic of Putin’s strategy from Georgia to Syria through Ukraine has been to counter that of the US. It is no wonder, he sounds sceptical of US strategic designs to the point of disdain.
During Tuesday’s news conference with the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Russian leader warned the West against NATO’s creeping expansion, while rejecting its vague diplomatic rhetoric and open-ended negotiations that lead to nowhere.
Putin’s nuanced approach to Western interests has led him to engage Europe on Ukrainian security, while insisting, to France’s chagrin, on engaging America, and only America, on issues concerning Russian and by extension European security.
Europe may be helpful in Ukraine, but only the US can provide Russia with the necessary guarantees regarding NATO’s expansion, missile deployment, and global security.
It is perhaps in this spirit that Russia now says it is pulling back troops from the borders, signalling a possible diplomatic opening on its own terms – one that could further divide the West.''
Three scenarios for the Ukraine-Russia crisis
The Ukrainian political leadership must not allow great powers to decide the country’s future.
So far, the Ukrainian diplomatic initiatives have been rather short-sighted. It may seem smart to exploit the scare of the “imminent invasion” to get more weapons from the West or campaign for preventive sanctions against Russia. However, the weapons that are currently supplied to Ukraine would not save it in case of an all-out attack by Russia. Similarly, the proposed sanctions by the West are unlikely to be consolidated or hurt Russia enough.
The prospects of a NATO membership also seem rather dim, despite the fact that Western powers have rejected Russian demands to make it official. At this time, the door seems to be closed, and continuing to knock on it may not be in the best interest of the nation. As Zelenskyy himself once said about NATO membership, “I never go visiting unless I am invited. I don’t want to feel inferior, a second-class person.”
The second scenario is an international agreement about Ukrainian neutrality or the so-called “Finlandisation” of Ukraine, which refers to Finland’s historic decision to associate with Europe, but avoid hostility towards Russia by not joining NATO.
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