The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #261
That's a lot of troops. Interesting to speculate whether this was planned in advance or is in response to NATO reinforcements to Poland and the Baltic states.
Coordinating that kind of movement requires serious advance planning. My money is on this being mostly, if not wholly, pre-planned.

My question is why? The Ukrainians have the Plamya in large numbers; lighter and more deployable. Unless of course M-19s are desired because they may be able to fire certain types of rounds a Plamya can't and has more range.

I would imagine that something the Ukrainians need more than ever are large quantities of NVGs.
I've read that the Ukrainian military has a shortage of machine guns in infantry units, and I've seen ancient Maksims from the 1930s pulled from storage and used on the front line. I suspect there is a similar shortage of AGS. Note the 7.62 ammo being shipped. It looks like 7.62X51 NATO, possibly for imported machine guns.

If they're expecting trouble in the Belarus and have resorted to such as move; must as well do the same with diplomats and citizens in Poland because if trouble breaks out in Belarus; unlikely that Poland won't be affected.
If they expect a Poland-Russia clash, by way of Belarus, then possibly yes. But if they're anticipating Belarussian support for Russian movements into Ukraine, then possibly not.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member

This video from a years ago in interesting as it shows what appears to be Russian troops in the Ukraine equipped with a Safran thermal imager and an Accuracy international rifle. Why they are armed with both and how they were sourced is the question.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I have just read an interesting article from MSN news that is report on an interview of a former Ukrainian defence chief Andriy Zagorodnyuk indicates an increase in RF troop numbers to 135000 comprising of 83 battalion groups
Russia has enough troops ready to take Kyiv, says former Ukraine defence chief
There are links in the article to the original Guardian article as well.
I think that we may be seeing from some of the participants, the symptoms of some thing that happens to some leaders who achieve absolute power, which historically over the centuries has shown that some become somewhat delusional and very dangerous.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #264

This video from a years ago in interesting as it shows what appears to be Russian troops in the Ukraine equipped with a Safran thermal imager and an Accuracy international rifle. Why they are armed with both and how they were sourced is the question.
Various Russian state force-wielding agencies have been spotted using many pieces of foreign equipment, it could be small arms, it could be optics. Thales was supplying components for Russian fighter jets (Su-30SMs) until literally this year, and as far as I can tell it only stopped because Russia sourced a domestic alternative for the Su-30SM2. The Belorussian Su-30SMs, and any other ones flying around, all have Thales electronics in them. Thales thermals stopped being the standard for Russian armor only in 2018 and again because a domestic alternative was sourced, not because France refused to sell. All in all this is not surprising, nor particularly meaningful.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #265
Update.

Belarus.

Joint exercises with Russia have begun.


One of the S-400 units in Belarus was spotted with the new TEL capable of using the long-range missiles.


Russian and Belorussian Su-30SM jets have conducted joint patrols of the airspace. Tu-22M3s are also continuing patrols.


Lukashenko has suggested that some of the Belorussian Ministry of Emergency Affairs units might get arms. He cited the inability to support a large standing army for a small country like Belorus.


Lukashenko has also stated that if Ukraine attacks the Donbass, they can expect a joint response from Russia and Belorus.


Russia.

Russian has closed several areas around Crimea for naval exercises.


6 Russian landing ships are passing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles.


Bastion coastal AShMs are en route from Krasnodar to Crimea, to join the units already there.


A Russian unit from the Caucuses in Crimea.


Various troop movements.


Russian An-2s were spotted in the skies near Ukraine.


Zaslon-2022 National Guard exercises reportedly involve moving units from other parts of the country. A number are coming in from Siberia.


Russian National Guard units in Stavropol, Krasnodar, and Kursk regions. Also Belgorod (2nd link).


An Iskander-M column in Bryansk region.


There's footage of Russian troops near Yel'nya leaving their field camp. They're ~250kms from Ukraine.


Russian ELINT ship, the Ivan Khurs has been spotted near Odessa.


The Marshal Ustinov 1164 cruiser has entered the Mediterranean. It's sistership the Varyag recently passed through the Suez. It's likely all 3 1164s will be set up in the Black Sea.


There is info that Russia has increased gas transit through Ukraine. However the total quantity is still within the contractual limits mandated, for which Russia will have to pay regardless.


The Rebels.

LNR sources claim Ukraine plans a false-flag terrorist attack that they will accuse the rebels of.


Ukraine.

Western military aid continues to arrive in Ukraine.


Ukraine has purchased batches of 12.7X108mm rounds. Previously Ukraine bought 7.62X54mm rounds also in Poland.


MT-12R anti-tank guns during recent exercises in Ukraine. This is a Soviet-era 100mm piece, and the R version is known for having a surface-surface radar.


Estonia has handed over a German field hospital to Ukraine.


There is news out of Vinnitsa that a new nationalist group has been formed with the purpose of resisting Russia. The idea is that they will form a guerilla resistance network in case of Russian invasion.


Ukrainian National Guard units practicing using Molotov cocktails.


Ukraine has requested a unit of THAAD to be deployed near Kharkov.


The West.

The US 82nd Airborne continues to arrive in Poland. They are reportedly going to set up near the Ukrainian border.


Footage of the 185th infantry regiment and 82nd Airborne, US, arriving in Poland.


A look at western recon flights near Russia and over Ukraine.


The UK is deploying a ~100 man special forces unit for training purposes to Ukraine.


The US says they can cut Russia off from key technologies with sanctions.

 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
Large numbers of troops don't like hanging around in the cold weather for extended periods of time.
Logistics, expense and morale.
Does this add to the likelihood of conflict soon, or better still a diplomatic resolve?

Thoughts


Regards S
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Russian live-fire exercises in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov will strongly limiting the possibilities of commercial shipping to Ukraine. Map in the link below. The restrictions will be in place February 13 -- 19.

Russian Navy Restricts Black Sea Shipping With Live-Fire Drill Areas (maritime-executive.com)

Some analysts are suggesting that the main aim for Putin is not "neo-imperial" or "neo-soviet" but rather a fear that Ukraine in a few years actually will be strong enough to take back Donbass by force. Ukranian economy has been growing much faster than Russian the last few years, and with support from NATO (both in terms of training and equipment) the Ukranian army is becoming stronger by the day. Throw in self-developed missiles and drones from Turkey, and the future picture from Russian side looks grim.

Is War in Ukraine Inevitable? | RealClearDefense

Hopefully they are wrong, and hopefully a diplomatic solution can be found. I agree however that European countries should step up. In particular the larger European countries should send much more air support to Romania and Poland, including substantial number of fighter jets a2a and a2g munition, tankers and related equipment. They should also indicate that they may respond positive to a request for support from Ukraine, should Russia expand their invasion. Rafales, Typhoons and F-16s from European NATO countries could impose a "no-fly zone" in Ukraine and dramatically increase the potential cost of an outright invasion and could change the calculus in Moscow, without putting NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
For the past two weeks, almost every time I've refreshed FlightRadar24, there has been some type of US/UK aircraft buzzing around Russian and Belarussian borders. Quite the non-stop intelligence gather operation. If things pop off, and a NATO plane is in the air, it could easily get caught in some sort of crosshairs and even brought down as a message.
 

the concerned

Active Member
I would have thought first lying about not attacking Ukraine then shooting down a Nato aircraft without provocation would result in a very swift response.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #271
I'll try to make another update post either later tonight or first thing tomorrow, but I figured I'd get this out. Foreign military missions, including the UKs, and multiple foreign embassies/consulates are apparently packing up and leaving Ukraine. Ukraine's General Procuror's office is evacuating documents from Kiev to Vinnitsa, and L'vov. Russian diplomats are also leaving but apparently not all of them. Increasing numbers of foreign governments are advising all of their citizens to leave Ukraine. Ukraine has allegedly halted entrance of all Russian citizens into the country unless they have a death in the family (a relative who lives in Ukraine and died).

There is also unconfirmed info that Zelenskiy instructed territorial defense forces to be increased to 2 million personnel, a wholly unrealistic number.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 2: Final stages of the Russian buildup

1. Over the past 15 years, Putin has made major investments in upgrading the quality of the Russian military and spending money on equipment and training, but also, critically, gaining real-world fighting experience. According to Ruslan Leviev, an analyst with the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent Russian open-source investigative organization that monitors Russia’s military, in any large-scale attack on Ukraine, the Airborne Forces, as well as special forces, probably would play a decisive role: either in an assault-landing operation to capture strategic objects or as shock infantry.

2. Videos have also emerged of Russian IFVs driving on roads. Mostly, MBTs and IFVs are transported by train and then the last mile by flatbed truck. “You don’t see mechanized units driving down the road unless they are getting near final staging areas,” said Michael Kofman, a Russian military analyst at the Virginia-based research group CNA. “Once you see tanks and infantry fighting vehicles under their own power driving down a road, it means they are not far from where they are intending to be.”

3. Unlike 2014, the Open source intel community won't have to evidence Russia's involvement in Ukraine, because this time they aren't hiding their involvement, so I expect the focus of analysis will be on conflict incidents where there's civilian harm. Prior to 2014, the Ukrainian military, was lacking in professionalism and corrupt as an institution — that was being used as an additional tool for domestic repression.
(a) While I hold the view that the US shouldn’t go to war with Russia — under Team Biden they are not going to — concurrently, I also believe that the Russian under Putin should not conduct further attacks on Ukraine.​
(b) I hold that view that invading Ukraine would be a mistake for Russia. Defeating the Ukrainian military would be relatively easy, but actually governing Ukraine would be challenging and risks a prolonged occupation that would destroy Russian national strength and discredit the Russia-sympathetic political figures that Putin has cultivated in Europe and America.​
(c) Russians are only a middling economic power — between South Korea and Brazil in nominal GDP (but between Germany and Indonesia with purchasing power parity adjustments) but it’s a major military power. It does not even have the financial muscle of the Japanese, to fund a ongoing war, in the middle term (i.e. for the next 5 to 7 years).​
(d) I suspect that a lot of the American officials who have been running America’s Russia policy for the last 8 years are irrationally invested in trying to reduce Russian geopolitical power and overthrow Putin’s regime when this has been counterproductive. The Americans need to demonstrate more empathy for Russian geo-political concerns.​

4. In areas of Russia and Belarus near the Ukrainian border, onlookers have uploaded hundreds of videos showing sophisticated Russian weaponry and military vehicles speeding by on railways, highways and local roads toward positions near Ukraine. Russia’s version of the National Guard, known as Rosgvardiya, appears to be deploying in areas near Ukraine, according to videos posted to social media. It is generally seen as a follow-on force that would hold territory seized by more specialized troops and secure ground communication lines back to military headquarters.

5. In recent days, those videos have begun worrying military analysts. The scenes, the military analysts say, appear to indicate that the Russian buildup could be entering its final stages. The threat of Russian use of force is both credible and imminent. Foreign military missions, including the US, the UK, and multiple foreign embassies are packing up and leaving Ukraine. Ukraine's General Procuror's office is evacuating documents from Kiev to Vinnitsa, and L'vov. Russian diplomats are also leaving. In view of Russian force deployments, on 12 Feb 2022, the US State Dept sent a message to US citizens in Ukraine to urge them again to leave ASAP and through the Polish-Ukrainian border. Risk mitigation in full effect for the international communities in Ukraine and their nationals.
 
Last edited:

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
For the past two weeks, almost every time I've refreshed FlightRadar24, there has been some type of US/UK aircraft buzzing around Russian and Belarussian borders. Quite the non-stop intelligence gather operation. If things pop off, and a NATO plane is in the air, it could easily get caught in some sort of crosshairs and even brought down as a message.
It's believed to be a RAF RC-135. I have seen reports elsewhere of one being tasked for the mission.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #274
Update.

Belarus.

Union Resolve exercises are continuing.


Russian Ka-52s over Belarus, unclear if they are participating in the exercises.


An interesting feature of the Union Resolve exercises is that Russian units aren't hiding their unit numbers. Instead there are literal billboards set up with the unit information on them, in their staging areas. Most units seem to retain their identifying markings. This differs from times when units went into Ukraine where they masked themselves as well as possible, hiding unit numbers and tactical markings.

There are four overall areas where exercises are on-going.

First area - the 29th Army (sort of) , in Baranovichi and Brest.
BTGs from the 36th Motor-Rifles, 155th Marines, 217th Para-drop rgt, and 31st Para-Assault bde covered by the 1529th Air Defense Rgt (2 S-400 btlns).
Second Area - 35th Army (sort of), Kalinkovichi, Mozyr, El'sk.
BTGs from the 38th and 64th Motor-Rifles, 69th Cover Bde, and arriving are parts of the 57th Motor-Rifles.
Third area - 36th Army (sort of), Gomel' and Rechitsa.
BTGs from the 37th Motor-rifles (multiple) and 5th tanks. Arriving are elements of the 137th Para-Drop Rgt of the 106th VDV, presumably the 11th Para-Assault is also headed here.
4th Area - the strategic reserve in Osipovichi and Bobruysk
BTGs from the 234th and 237th Para-Drop Rgts of the 76th VDV.

At this point exercises are in full swing, but additional units still appear to be en route from the Far East. By some estimates the total rail activity associated with troop transportation is still at double normal levels. Military activity is happening in the Smolensk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, and Orlov regions. Elements of the 200th Motor-Rifles are still arriving from the Far North. The 25th Motor-Rifles, and 9th Artillery Bde are still in transit, as is the 104th Para-Drop Rgt from the 76th VDV. Also moving are additional elements of the 2nd Motor-Rifles, 4th Tank, 27th Motor-Rifles, 6th Tanks, 25th and 288th Arty, 79th Rocket-Arty, and 202nd Air Defense Bde. Please note some units are appearing twice because 1-2 BTGs from them have already moved, and these are additional elements. While these units aren't necessarily headed to Belarus, it's noteworthy that they are not headed to Rostov region, the natural staging point for intervention into the rebel-held areas. Movement is South MD is also happening but it's less of a concentration at the borders, and more of a rotation of units through training areas, some near the border. In Kursk region we even have tanks and BMPs from the 333rd and 467th Training Centers.

Other movements include the 51st Para-Drop Rgt, arriving in Smolensk region, 21st Motor-Rifles and 385th Arty, the 74th Motor-Rifles, and still en route the 11th Para-Assault Bde.


Russia.

Belgorod region, the 4th Tank Div. is heading towards Ukraine.


Russian helos over Yaroslav region.


Dozens of Russian helos are sitting in Belgorod region near Ukraine.


More Russian helo-flights, location unclear.


Rosgvardiya column in Belgorod region.


Russian SOF moving around in Smolensk region.


2S7M Malka super-heavy howitzers in Belgorod region.


Bal Coastal AShMs moving to Crimea.


Russia has launched major naval exercises in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, Nothern Sea, Okhotsk Sea, and the Mediterranean, involving over 150 vessels including all 3 1164 project cruisers. 30 of the ships are active in the Black Sea. While it's unclear what ships out of theater have to do with the crisis, ships tend to be more survivable at sea, and showing maximum preparation could serve as both a signal and a deterrence to foreign interference.


A phone call between Blinken and Lavrov took place regarding the potential for conflict in Ukraine, on US initiative. Lavrov accused the US of provoking a Ukrainian move against the LDNR with the statements about Russian invasion.


A high level meeting took place between Russian and UK Min-Defs, but without any visible results.


An 8-hour long session of negotiations in the Normandy format took place in Germany. Russia's representative, Dmitriy Kozak, stated that the negotiations had produced no results, citing Ukraine's continued unwillingness to implement the Minsk Accords.


Head of Russia's SVR says Ukraine is preparing for war with all combat-ready troops concentrated near the front-line in Donbass.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #275
The LDNR.

The US and British portion of the OSCE mission inside Donetsk is leaving. This is worrying as having OSCE on the ground is crucial to fixing who starts the fighting. Their presence played a crucial role in informing the public of what took place at the start of the 5 day war.


Ukraine.

There's unconfirmed info from rebel sources that Ukraine has deployed an S-300 unit near the front line in the Donbass.


Stingers from Lithuania have arrived.


Western military aid continues to arrive.


Some leaked documents with alleged totals on Western military aid to Ukraine. Noteworthy are the massive supplies of western ammo to Ukraine in the fall of 2021, including 1.2 million rounds of 12.7mmX99 (.50 cal ammo), 2.3 million rounds of NATO 7.62X51mm, and 570 000 5.56mm NATO rounds. Since Ukraine doesn't currently have many firearms in this caliber, this could be preparation for mass supplies of small arms to Ukraine. Also provided were over 200 000 40mm grenades for the Mk19.

Other totals include 75 launchers and 540 Javelin missiles, 276 HMMWV (106 armored, 100 unarmored, 70 ambulances), 145 Toyota Land Cruiser, 57 Ford cars, 24 sets of RQ-11B Raven UAVs, 4 Island patrol boats, 40 AN/TPQ-48/49 counter-battery radars, 15 AN/TPQ-36/37 counter-battery radars, 10 Sharp Eye radars, 48 EW systems, 9337 night optics (sights and NVGs), 4251 radios, 16 mortars М1982 120mm(likely the, 2B11), 185 М240В machineguns, 5173 AK-74, 2400 PM handguns, 122 М107А1 sniper rifles.

Planned for delivery in 2022 (some have already begun) are 25 CLU Block 1 and 500 Javelin missiles, 825 ХМ141 BDM munitions, 200 Mk 19 40-mm grenade launbchers with spare parts, 667840 40 х 53 мм grenades, 3 6-barreled 7,62-мм М134 machineguns, 185 tripods for the М240В, 1,308 million rounds 12,7 х 99 mm, 21,1428 millions rounds of 7,62 х 51 mm, 1,5984 million rounds 5,56 х 45 mm 400 thousand 12-gauge shotgun shells 15.4 million rounds 7,62 х 54 mm, 99072 VOG-25 grenades, 26276 OG-7V rounds for the RPG-7, 119804 mortars shells of 82 mm, 37962 122 mm artillery shells.


A total of 2037 NLAWs have been supplied to Ukraine.


Ukraine's newly formed territorial defense units training with Stugna ATGMs.


The West.

Western ELINT/SIGINT flights continue.


US and UK training missions are leaving Ukraine.


Israel has asked it's citizens to leave Ukraine. Canada has closed their embassy in Ukraine, and is opening a temporary office in L'vov. The UK lowered the British flag over the embassy in Kiev with the mission closing on Monday allegedly. Belgium Kuwait and the UAE have all asked their citizens to leave Ukraine. South Korea has banned travel to Ukraine, and urged all citizens currently in-country to leave.


There are unconfirmed reports that insurance companies are about to pull their insurances for airlines operating in Ukraine. Given that most aircraft are leased not owned, this could effectively shut down air travel to Ukraine.


The Bosphorus has closed down due to the breakdown of a ship carrying coal. The timing is suspect, but it's not clear that this is related.


An interesting article regarding the US information campaign surrounding the current situation. It argues that the US has effectively used information releases to limit Russian scope for action.


Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor, states that it's not clear Russia has made the decision to invade. I suspect this may be a message to Russia as much as actual analysis.


The US has told domestic industry to prepare for disruptions of supplies of rare materials from Russia and Ukraine.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #277
Actually, only Americans left OSCE, and a bunch of new people from other coutries came today /yesterday.
Do you have sources that 1) the Brits didn't leave, and 2) the US members were replaced by others? I'm not doubting your statements per se, but sources would help clarify the situation.
 

denix56

Active Member
I had seen this info with unofficial interview with OSCE member + videos of new people arriving in telegram channel Типичный Донецк.
I am not saying it is 100% true, but it looks so + there was no info of other countries leaving it, so I tend to believe it.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #279
There's unconfirmed information of fighter jets in the skies of Donetsk. Given that we don't have info of clashes or shoot-downs, if this is accurate, they would be Russian.


EDIT: Local sources are denying it. I'll update if anything comes of it.
 
Last edited:

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member

Ukraine seems to have inquired specifically about Iron Dome, both from Israel and from the US (both require Israeli approval) and was shut down. The inquiry into American Iron Domes included a request for Patriots. The US is said to have agreed, but then withdrew agreement once Israel relayed its arguments.
Not sure why the US also refused to sell or loan the Patriots to Ukraine as well.
 
Top