The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Ananda · Feb 3, 2022

koxinga said:
Ukraine military industrial complex has companies like Luch Design Bureau (HOME) that are capable of producing anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles but the local investment is limited and are dependent on foreign customers.

Like it or not Erdo Sultan is the biggest supporters from NATO for the survival of Ukraine Military Industry complex. The survival of that is actually the biggest deterence that Ukraine has so far.

Russia use to depend on many aspects toward Ukraine Industrial Complex, however Euro Maidan put the road that begin an end of that. Ukraine try to survive by taking chunck of Russian export market, but it will not be enough for continue investment and tech development to survive.

That's what NATO should support , and ironically the one thar continue being picture as 'pariah' on NATO, is the ones that doing it the most. For Ukraine, what Turkey done is more matter for them, then all other 'talk' and snippets of some military equiment that other European done so far.

Feanor · Feb 3, 2022

Vivendi said:
Ukrainians cope with fake bomb threats as Moscow mounts hybrid war (france24.com)

Bomb threats against children. Russian hybrid war is disgusting.

Yes, I agree. State-sponsored terrorist threats and acts are despicable.

Here's the August of 2016 when a Ukrainian team got caught trying to blow up the Dzhankoi airfield in Crimea. They killed a Russian FSB officer in the process, and fled, but information on them got leaked.

Как украинские террористы пытались подорвать аэродром в Джанкое

На АСД вышел объемный материал с подробностями известной истории с попыткой прорыва украинских террористов на территорию Крыма в 2016-м году, в ходе которой погибли подполковник ФСБ Роман Каменев и ефрейтор ВДВ Семен Сычев. Как следует из опубликованных документов, целью группы украинских…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Перекоп: Подробности

Еще некоторые подробности по ситуации на Перекопе http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2892089.html . Видео с одним из задержанных, а так же кое-что из изъятого - взрывчатка, детонаторы, мины, гранаты и т.п. Более развернутый вариант. Диверсионно-разведывательная группа пыталась прорваться в Крым в…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Подробная информация :: Федеральная Служба Безопасности

Подробная информация

www.fsb.ru

A second incident took place in august of 2016, at almost the same time, involving yet another team with explosives. This one was spotted and intercepted by soldiers from the 247th VDV Rgt. This second set claimed their goals were to organize a small series of terrorist acts against tourists, to cause a panic "kill the tourism". They claim nobody would have died. I guess that's excepting the VDV soldier they killed in the firefight.

Диверсионный след привел к Сивашу

В Крыму пресекли подготовку терактов

www.kommersant.ru

"Убить туризм"

В Коммерсанте опубликовали еще немного подробностей на тему провокации ГУР МОУ на Перекопе. По данным ФСБ, на севере Крыма произошли два вооруженных инцидента, в которых участвовали агенты главного управления разведки (ГУР) Минобороны Украины. В ночь на 7 августа, как рассказали…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

When Evgeniy Panov, the alleged head of these teams was captured in Armyansk, he claimed the targets included an oil storage facility, the ferry crossing in Feodosiya, the Dzhankoi airfield, and the "Titan" chemical plant.

Целями диверсий в Крыму Панов назвал паромную переправу, нефтебазу и химзавод

На допросе задержанный признался в подготовке диверсий на критически важных объектах полуострова

www.interfax.ru

Украинец Панов признался в подготовке терактов в Крыму

Житель Запорожской области Украины Евгений Панов, подозреваемый в подготовке терактов в Крыму, дал признательные показания на допросе. Об этом сообщил ТАСС источник в правоохранительных органах. Как ожидается, Киевский районный суд Симферополя в четверг изберет Панову меру пресечения.

lenta.ru

And here's materials on another alleged Ukrainian operative, caught with explosives in his car, in that same august of 2016.

Украинская разведка хотела свалить теракты на мусульман в Крыму

Сотрудники Главного Управления Разведки Минобороны Украины начали обрабатывать диверсантов за год, а взрывчатку забрасывали на полуостров в колесах авто [видео]

www.kp.ru

Here's a Ukrainian team captured in November of 2016, with explosives, in Sevastopol. Curiously the account that uploaded their interrogations to youtube is gone now. Not dissimilar to the pattern of pro-rebel videos from 2014 disappearing off of youtube.

В Севастополе задержана диверсионная группа украинской разведки

В Севастополе задержана диверсионная группа, об этом со ссылкой на ФСБ сообщил телеканал "Россия-24".Эту информацию ForPost официально подтвердили в пресс-службе управления ФСБ по Республике Крым и Се

sevastopol.su

Задержание украинских диверсантов в Севастополе

Видео задержания украинских диверсантов в Севастополе. PS. В комментариях к видео украинствующие с тормозным путем в несколько месяцев задорно шуткуют про визитку Яроша, хотя казалось бы в этом вопросе все уже давно разъяснено http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2717667.html

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Показания диверсантов задержанных в Севастополе

Показания задержанных в Севастополе украинских диверсантов. Полковник ГУР МОУ Штыбликов. Полковник ГУР МОУ Бесарабов.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

You might think that was then, and now is now, and it's all history. But....

Here's 2021 where a gas pipeline in Crimea was blown up by Ukrainian operatives who were caught and admitted to it.

Подорвавшие газопровод в Крыму рассказали о диверсии

По данным ФСБ РФ, взрыв был организован украинской разведкой.

tvzvezda.ru

ФСБ: за взрывом газопровода в Крыму стояла украинская разведка

Взрыв газопровода в Крыму организовала украинская разведка, сообщила ФСБ. РИА Новости, 07.09.2021

ria.ru

And here is another team of Ukrainian operatives captured armed inside Crimea in December of 2021....

ФСБ задержала украинских террористов

ФСБ задержала трех агентов СБУ и ГУР МОУ. Федеральная служба безопасности пресекла разведывательно-диверсионную деятельность украинских спецслужб в трёх регионах России. Задержаны два агента СБУ Зиновий Ковыль и его сын Игорь, а также агент Главного управления разведки Министерства…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

I have neither the time nor the patience to dig up every incident of this kind, but the sheer quantity of materials on the subject is staggering.

These bomb threats reminded me of "apartment bombings" in Moscow in 1999, executed by FSB to justify the war in Chechenia: Vladimir Putin & 1999 Russian Apartment-House Bombings -- Was Putin Responsible? - by David Satter (hudson.org)

While this lies outside the scope of this thread, I'm going to provide a brief response to this. If you want to continue the discussion past that, let's create a separate thread and discuss the origins and prosecution of the second Chechen war.

Last time I checked, the second Chechen war didn't start with apartment bombings. It started with a Chechen invasion of Dagestan, a province where the locals had 0 interest in separatism or building an Islamic Caliphate. Russia who had allegedly prepared for a second war, and was looking for an excuse (looking so hard it was willing to commit false flag attacks), turned out to be so unprepared, that local police and militias made up of random locals armed with everything from hunting rifles, to single-barrel breech-loading shotguns, had to fight against well armed Chechen bands for weeks while the regular army got itself together... it doesn't exactly support the narrative of a bombing to provoke a war. Neither does the timeline since the apartment bombings took place after the invasion of Dagestan, at which point a war was already in full swing whether Putin wanted one or not. At that point there was no need for any excuses or provocations. It's clear something shady took place with those bombings but the conventional liberal opposition narrative of a false flag attack by Putin isn't supported by the context surrounding it.

Rob c · Feb 4, 2022

Feanor said:
I have neither the time nor the patience to dig up every incident of this kind, but the sheer quantity of materials on the subject is staggering.

Do you have any non RF sources that confirm these acts or are they all official RF sources.
The following Item was on the msn news. Interesting but know confirmation as sutch.
US officials claim Russia prepared false flag to justify invading Ukraine

STURM · Feb 4, 2022

Vivendi said:
Russian propaganda tries to make the war in Ukraine into a story about the US and NATO "aggression".

I have no idea about propaganda apart from the fact that all sides indulge in it to some extent or the other.

I do know however that despite whatever one's personal feeling or opinions are; the fact remains that Russia is staking the steps it deems are necessary to safeguard its core interests against what it perceives are grave threats and provocations.

Vivendi said:
They also agree that Russia is threatening Ukraine, and needs to step back. There is an agreement between all European democracies that diplomacy must prevail.

That is well known; the pertinent question however is what steps will be taken if; despite all the threats of sanctions; expression of solidarity and steps such as arms and training to the Ukrainians. as well as increasing troop numbers in certain NATO countries; the Russians do invade? What happens when both sides are determined that the other needs to ''step back'' but ultimately neither will?

Vivendi · Feb 4, 2022

STURM said:
I have no idea about propaganda apart from the fact that all sides indulge in it to some extent or the other.

I do know however that despite whatever one's personal feeling or opinions are; the fact remains that Russia is staking the steps it deems are necessary to safeguard its core interests against what it perceives are grave threats and provocations.

I disagree -- the fact remains that Russia claim they perceive grave threats and provocations. Did you not consider that this could also be part of their disinformation campaign? Nobody knows, and we should definitely not present it as "facts". They also impose a sense of urgency on the whole situation, which seems very odd. Before they started escalating end of last year, there was no discussions about bringing any extra troops to Eastern European NATO countries. And it is simply not credible that Ukraine could pose a military threat to Russia. Before they started the last troop build-up they already had 35,000 troops close to Ukraine. How could Ukrain pose an imminent threat to Russia? And how could NATO pose an imminent threat?

Sandhi Yudha · Feb 4, 2022

Rob c said:
Do you have any non RF sources that confirm these acts or are they all official RF sources.
The following Item was on the msn news. Interesting but know confirmation as sutch.
US officials claim Russia prepared false flag to justify invading Ukraine

Yes, US claims that Russia is planning to stage a fake Ukrainian attack that it would use to justify an invasion.
Some kind of Nazi-German invaded by Polish units trick.

Ukraine tensions: US alleges Russian plot to fake invasion pretext

Officials say Russia could try to justify invading Ukraine with a fake attack video.

www.bbc.com

s,

STURM · Feb 4, 2022

The Gleiwitz incident.

Poles recall Nazi seizure of radio station, see parallels with today

Joachim Fulczyk still remembers the fateful radio broadcast 75 years ago this weekend that provided Adolf Hitler with a pretext to launch his invasion of Poland that sparked World War Two.

www.reuters.com

malleboy · Feb 4, 2022

Feanor,

Feanor said:
Yes, I agree. State-sponsored terrorist threats and acts are despicable.

Here's the August of 2016 when a Ukrainian team got caught trying to blow up the Dzhankoi airfield in Crimea. They killed a Russian FSB officer in the process, and fled, but information on them got leaked.

I really appreciate the perspective that you bring, I can grant that Russia had some grounds for claims on Crimea. Also that from Moscow's perspective NATO has continued to expand into its traditional sphere of influence in a manner that no significant power would feel comfortable with.

However Crimea was under international law Ukrainian territory, it remains "de jure" Ukrainian territory, despite that fact that it is now in all likelihood going to remain "de facto" Russian territory. I apologize in advance if you did not intend to make the connection, but I'm not sure if I can equate a sovereign state taking actions against an occupying force on what it still sees as its own territory as anywhere in the ballpark of state sponsored terrorism. Whilst it has been said that one man's freedom fighter is another's terrorist, I don't see it in this case.

Ananda · Feb 4, 2022

Russia's Gamble in Ukraine

Moscow has prepared a growing number of army, navy, and air force units for a possible invasion of Ukraine while also increasing irregular activities like cyber operations and subversion. If peace talks fail, escalation may include measures that are global in nature.

www.csis.org

This is a brief from CSIS assesment of potential scenario of what Russia will do toward Ukraine. This is CSIS assesment, thus it is very Western thinking with all the bias toward Putin's Russia. Even that from 6 scenario they think off, only one that shown Russia take over the wholle Ukraine.

2 scenario put Russia will stay outside Ukraine current 'controlled' border, however put pressure with active involvement toward Russian pro seperatist. 3 Scenarios put invasion to secure part of Ukraine (with potential creating seperate Pro Russian Ukraine government), carve Ukraine just like USSR carve Germany with creation of DDR. Only one scenario where they shown Russia take over the wholle Ukraine.

Even that, they agree it is the most risk of Scenario from Russian stand point and something that (at least on their brief) less benefit for Russia. The three scenarios (which end game can be on creating seperate Pro Russian Ukraine), are seems more saleble to Kremlin in long run.

Potential diplomatic row with West on which Ukraine going to be recognise Internationaly, can be continue playing on. However for Russian stand point seems it is acceptable worse scenario on creating Pro Russian buffer in Ukraine.

For me, what this CSIS brief put shown there's not clear yet on whether Russia really want Ukraine under their influence, or Russia that want to build barrier state between them and what theiy already presume Pro West Ukraine.

Something even Western think tank like CSIS, a think tank that build during Cold War not really even sure yet. That's why it is still a very fluid scenario. Russia clearly thinking on creating buffer. Whether that buffer will be a Ukraine that at least stay in the middle, or carving the Ukraine, seems can still work either way.

swerve · Feb 4, 2022

Ananda said:
...

Hungary’s leader, visiting Moscow, calls Russian demands reasonable and says sanctions are pointless. (Published 2022)

On a friendly visit to Moscow, Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary diverged sharply from his NATO and European Union allies.

www.nytimes.com

Hungary is EU and NATO member, and base on those media/expert standard that claim Ukrainian is democracy or already in transition to Democracy, Hungary is a democratic on recent western standard. ...

Hungary is one of the least democratic countries in the EU, & there are many people arguing that its membership should be suspended because of its breaches of democratic norms. It's widely perceived as trying to keep the advantages of EU membership while breaking as many rules as it can get away with. Sometimes Orban doesn't even pretend to be committed to democracy.

Feanor · Feb 4, 2022

malleboy said:
I really appreciate the perspective that you bring, I can grant that Russia had some grounds for claims on Crimea. Also that from Moscow's perspective NATO has continued to expand into its traditional sphere of influence in a manner that no significant power would feel comfortable with.

However Crimea was under international law Ukrainian territory, it remains "de jure" Ukrainian territory, despite that fact that it is now in all likelihood going to remain "de facto" Russian territory. I apologize in advance if you did not intend to make the connection, but I'm not sure if I can equate a sovereign state taking actions against an occupying force on what it still sees as its own territory as anywhere in the ballpark of state sponsored terrorism. Whilst it has been said that one man's freedom fighter is another's terrorist, I don't see it in this case.

Since my original reply was to a different user, I'd like to clarify a couple of things before proceeding. What's your opinion on Russia allegedly using fake bomb threats as part of a hybrid warfare campaign? What's your opinion on Ukraine allegedly using real bombs against targets inside Crimea including civilian ones?

In my opinion if Ukraine deems itself to be at war with Russia to the point where sending teams with explosives into Crimea to blow up targets is acceptable, complaining about Russia making prank bomb threat calls is just silly.

Rob c said:
Do you have any non RF sources that confirm these acts or are they all official RF sources.
The following Item was on the msn news. Interesting but know confirmation as sutch.
US officials claim Russia prepared false flag to justify invading Ukraine

Good question. A quick google search in English turned up nothing, I'll see if I can find something. However at this point the lack of foreign reporting doesn't persuade me. From the Russian side these attacks have been substantiated with photos, leaked Ukrainian documents, and actual operatives captured with weapons and explosives. At this point, to dismiss it all as false (and we're talking about many incidents over many years) would require some evidence that it's fake. Again, remember Russian service members were killed in some of the incidents.

swerve said:
Hungary is one of the least democratic countries in the EU, & there are many people arguing that its membership should be suspended because of its breaches of democratic norms. It's widely perceived as trying to keep the advantages of EU membership while breaking as many rules as it can get away with. Sometimes Orban doesn't even pretend to be committed to democracy.

Hungary is on a dangerous right lean, but they're not the only ones. They're just the ones who've gone the furthest. Neighboring Poland also has some issues, with their attack on the independence of their courts, and their uptick in nationalist policies. I suspect democracy in many European countries will be threatened internally over the next 10-20 years. Orban is just particularly scandalous because in addition to threatening democracy at home, he's also broken ranks and made buddies with Putin, for whatever reason.

Ananda · Feb 4, 2022

swerve said:
It's widely perceived as trying to keep the advantages of EU membership while breaking as many rules as it can get away with. Sometimes Orban doesn't even pretend to be committed to democracy

Yes, there's much discord within EU against Orban Hunggary. However I believe there're also other contentions with EU Eastern members from more advance Western members, especialy on public opinion.

However the point is that Russia still can create discord within Euro zone. Thus saying for certain all EU/Nato members will be solid on their support to Ukraine against Russia still too early to tell. That's why I said in the end it is 'cost' game. Not all of them will be going to have same perception on how far they are willing to take the cost for Ukraine. Especialy if in the end it is down to public opinion and support.

Rob c · Feb 4, 2022

Feanor said:
I have neither the time nor the patience to dig up every incident of this kind, but the sheer quantity of materials on the subject is staggering.

Just reading the incidents it seems to me that the Ukrainians must be using a very low grade of operative in these incidents, if they happen at all. They always get caught and always spill the beans when caught, if we are to believe the articles. Not very professional at all even for a third or forth grade organization.

Feanor · Feb 4, 2022

Rob c said:
Just reading the incidents it seems to me that the Ukrainians must be using a very low grade of operative in these incidents, if they happen at all. They always get caught and always spill the beans when caught, if we are to believe the articles. Not very professional at all even for a third or forth grade organization.

It's possible they're just lousy with Russian infiltrators. It's also possible that the habitual corruption and degradation of state institutions has brought things to such a state where they're just very ineffective. That having been said, Ukrainian teams have carried out a number of successful operations inside the LDNR including assassinations of rebel leaders. So this could be more symptomatic of the effectiveness of Russian counter-intelligence (though I have my doubts).

Rob c · Feb 4, 2022

Feanor said:
It's possible they're just lousy with Russian infiltrators. It's also possible that the habitual corruption and degradation of state institutions has brought things to such a state where they're just very ineffective. That having been said, Ukrainian teams have carried out a number of successful operations inside the LDNR including assassinations of rebel leaders. So this could be more symptomatic of the effectiveness of Russian counter-intelligence (though I have my doubts).

Yep, all things in these cases are possible, I Suspect though that there is a far bit of mis information is involved from both sides as they are well use to that tatic. Though the build up does somewhat remind me of the pre ww2 rhetoric from Hitler in regard to Poland. We can only hope that things don't escalate to that degree.

STURM · Feb 5, 2022

Rob c said:
Though the build up does somewhat remind me of the pre ww2 rhetoric from Hitler in regard to Poland.

Yes it does somewhat. There was also the German/Russian non aggression pact which sealed the fate of Poland. Britain and France gave a guarantee that they would defend Poland's territorial integrity but only against Germany. Not so well known is that Poland annexed a small slice of Czechoslovakian territory before the war and that the Polish leadership was actually quite confident of repulsing the Germans. There was even talk within some Polish circles of a drive to Berlin. Current events are also reminiscent of events which took place prior to Munich and Germany being given the Sudetenland.

Steinmetz · Feb 5, 2022

We've got a lot of equipment/personnel moving west. All these units and logistics in place can't stay forever, it costs money. It looks to me like soldiers are being staged to start manning the equipment on relatively short notice.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1489673039780458496

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490055026458378247

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1489972005483028488

Map of Latest News and incidents from Russia in English - russia.liveuamap.com

Feanor · Feb 6, 2022

Update.

Belarus.

Something fairly unprecedented has taken place. At this point two entire combined arms armies from East MD has deployed to Belarus, including it's command elements (East MD commander is in Belarus). Already arrived, in large part, are the 36th, 37th, 38th, and 64th Motor-Rifles, the 5th Tanks, 165th and 200th Arty Bdes, 103rd and 107th Missile Bdes, 69th Cover Bde (specialized infantry unit), and 155th Marines. En route are 57th Motor-Rifles, 11th Para-Assault, 114th and 39th Motor-Rifle Rgts, of the 127th Div. Also in Belarus are several units of the 76th VDV Div.

Meanwhile near Ukraine in general we have, in addition to the regular West MD units, elements of the 25th M-R bde, 15th M-R rgt from the 2nd M-R div, 12th and 13th tank rgts from the 4th Tank div, the 288th Arty Bde, 25th, 55th, and 74th M-R bdes, 120th Arty Bde, and 6th Tank rgt from the 90th Tank Div (these units are from Center MD).

Also heading south is the 200th Motor-Rifles Bde from the Northern Fleet.

Союзная решимость–2022 часть вторая

замысел учений Союзная решимость2022 Прошла неделя с предыдущего обзора и настало время снова вернуться к теме переброски российских войск в Белоруссию в ходе подготовки совместных российско-белорусских учений Союзная решимость2022. источник…

altyn73.livejournal.com

Joint training exercises between Russia and Belarus are on-going.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

The Bunker Group

Super Moderator

The Bunker Group

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

New Member

The Bunker Group

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

The Bunker Group

The Bunker Group

Super Moderator

The Bunker Group

Well-Known Member

Active Member

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

Well-Known Member