The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Sandhi,

I have no doubt that a Russian missile hit a station killing civilians. I have have nobodies however if the station was intentionally targeted to hit civilians and inscribe the "children" bit. In case anyone jumps in; no I'm not suggesting the Ukrainians wrote it.

As for Bucha to me t looks like the work of a unit which lost control - others think otherwise. Why they didn't bother to hide what they did is the question.
Ref "for the children": If correct that this was written on the missile, could the inscibers have meant "for the children [of Donetsk]"? As in to avenge the children killed in the March 14 attack and earlier, rather than "for [killing] Ukrainian children"? Look up "Alley of Angels" in Donetsk if not familiar with it. Could it have been launched by LDNR forces? Do they have these Tochka missiles?

EDIT: The above is not offered as an excuse (far from it!) but rather as a possible explanation. It makes more sense to me than an inscription announcing to the world that "hey, everybody, we Russians are monsters intentionally trying to kill children". Of course if those who wrote that on the missile really did mean it as "for the children [killed in Donetsk]" it does not in any way excuse an attack on a civilian target crowded with people deperately trying to flee if the railway station was the intended target. Normally, I think this should go without saying, but tempers appear to be running high these days.

Also, for the record, when reading media accounts of other wars, I really hate it when journalists dismiss atrocities committed by their favored side as "understandable revenge killings." Yes, there is human impulse for revenge, and we all understand that, but it should never be condoned or considered an excuse.
 
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QEDdeq

Member
It is almost like that attacks like this are done to damage the image of Russia.
1. If its really done by the Russians, then they were probably thinking "How can we make the world hate us more, give foreign mass media the chance the demonize us better and make the boycots and embargoes worse so our economy will be more devastated."

2. If its staged by the Ukrainians, than its really top level propaganda.

Like in Bucha, why should the Russians execute civillians for fun, and why should they tie the hands of the civillians on the backs first, then shoot them in an executing way, to finally keep the bodies on the street, in order to let the world know that they have done these warcrimes?

Any way, if its was carried out by the Russians, with approval from Moskva, then why do they also give foodpackages and humanitarian aid to the civillians in other cities? And why didn't they go with a full invasion without thinking about civilian casualties/collateral damage (WW II way of war)?

And if its not done by the Russians, why didn't they condemn such horrible acts instead of just denying and coming with unrealistic sounding explanations/accusations?
All countries in the former Eastern block had information-counterinformation units who, in case of conflict, were in charge with setting-up false flag operations, diversion, sabotage, mass disinformation, cover up, and so on. Officers from these units were often actively embedded with regular army units although they could also act independently in particular in recon-sabotage-diversion missions. I have studied some materials and articles on this subject linked to the involvement of this type of diversionary units in the Romanian 'revolution' back in 1989.

I highly doubt that both Russia and Ukraine do not have this type of units still working alongside their regular army units, down to battalion level, being in charge with setting the scenes to make it look like the others are doing crimes against civilians. It looks to me like the Russians are still anchored in the old soviet style of doing diversion and disinformation. I was re-reading recently a research piece about the Romanian 'revolution' where they were describing the terrorist profile used by the military diversion units to scare the population during those crazy days. I will quote some of the characteristics mentioned: ''under drugs influence, fanatical, mercenary from an arab country, he will fight until the end even when there is no chance to succeed, he sits hidden in sewage canals and bunkers and shoots at the civilian population''. This is from 32 years ago. Look at the message Russia is pushing on their social media and television about some of Ukraine's units and their foreign mercenary helpers. Its almost the same pattern. Now I'm not saying that there might not be some elements that are true, like some drugged soldiers and some mercenaries or whatnot, but it is about how much this narrative is pumped and sold to the wider audience as being the general picture. That's why I'm saying Russia is stuck on the old diversion and disinformation model and therefore very predictable for someone who has invested a bit of time in the topic. Ukraine on the other hand is on a different level, that is because they have inherited the soviet diversion-disinformation tactics but they have upgraded them with Western intelligence coordination. There is no claim made by Ukraine regarding alleged Russian war crime that isn't immediately backed by Western and 'independent' sources. Basically the Ukrainian model for diversion and disinformation is what we have already seen deployed in the Syrian conflict and I will stop at that since I don't want to start drawing here all the parallels I see between the two conflicts in terms of information and diversion.

What I try to do as an objective and independent observer is to train critical thinking, don't allow myself to be drawn into any narrative without first challenging it. As usual in this type of situation, objective and factual opinion of other people are very valuable to cross-check if your own thinking is right or wrong.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Ref "for the children": If correct that this was written on the missile, could the inscibers have meant "for the children [of Donetsk]"? As in to avenge the children killed in the March 14 attack and earlier, rather than "for [killing] Ukrainian children"?
Good question. Hopefully more news will appear on this in due course.
 

Twain

Active Member
This thread is becoming the opposite of occam's razor, people searching for excuses and explanations without any evidence to support these suppositions.

What we do know is that we have the intercepted communications from speigel


"German Intelligence Intercepts Radio Traffic Discussing the Murder of Civilians"


we have statements by amnesty international

"New today, our latest from Ukraine - we've verified additional cases of executions in Bucha & Kyiv suburbs. To the deniers: we interviewed witnesses weeks ago, before we could corroborate their cases w/ video, & we have the electronic receipts to prove it. "


We have Ria Novosti (russian state media) calling for genocide


"Yesterday, RIA Novosti published a lengthy piece titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine", which explains in detail what Russia understands by denazification. It's truly horrific"


We have multiple pictures, some posted in this thread, of civilians with their hands bound and shot, many shot in the head. It doesn't take much to establish the pattern here. The russians are doing exactly what they said they were going to do, "de-nazify" Ukraine. Unfortunately as russia has said many times, every Ukrainian is a nazi, the country is full of them, including civilians, women, children etc. You can rarely take russia at it's word but in this case, their actions match their words.
 
I have been diligently following this thread since the outbreak of hostilities. And im afraid to say the quality of the posts imho have degraded somewhat. In many ways this thread has devolved into an anti Russian treatise. I wish we could get back on point and focus on the military updates and that speculation remained in the military operational sphere.
In response to the discussion, I will provide my 2 cents however. If we take the prinxipal of "qui bono", it is clear that stopping civilians from leaving Kramatorsk does not help Russian aims. A depopulated city is easier to capture, whereas as one that is not is much harder to, as we have seen in this war and others.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
This thread is becoming the opposite of occam's razor, people searching for excuses and explanations without any evidence to support these suppositions.
As long as they don't push outrageous conspiracy theories and make certain claims on facts which are known to be true; I don't see tthe harm in people questioning the narrative or certain incidents or being sceptical of the accuracy of certain reports. Doing so doesn't mean they are Russian apologists trying to whitewash Russan crimes; are saying the invasion was justified; that deep inside Putin is actually rational or that the Ukraine is infested with "nazis".
 

Twain

Active Member
Just an article I found interesting. First one is an article profiling Valeriy Zaluzhnyy , the CIC of the Ukranian armed forces. Remarkable man to stymie russia when everyone thought Ukraine would lose everything in a couple weeks.

 

swerve

Super Moderator
It is almost like that attacks like this are done to damage the image of Russia.
1. If its really done by the Russians, then they were probably thinking "How can we make the world hate us more, give foreign mass media the chance the demonize us better and make the boycots and embargoes worse so our economy will be more devastated."

2. If its staged by the Ukrainians, than its really top level propaganda.

Like in Bucha, why should the Russians execute civillians for fun, and why should they tie the hands of the civillians on the backs first, then shoot them in an executing way, to finally keep the bodies on the street, in order to let the world know that they have done these warcrimes?

Any way, if its was carried out by the Russians, with approval from Moskva, then why do they also give foodpackages and humanitarian aid to the civillians in other cities? And why didn't they go with a full invasion without thinking about civilian casualties/collateral damage (WW II way of war)?

And if its not done by the Russians, why didn't they condemn such horrible acts instead of just denying and coming with unrealistic sounding explanations/accusations?
The Russian authorities will not admit error or wrongdoing, even if to do so would help their image in the west. Russian soldiers are saving Russia, Ukraine & the world from the drug-addicted neo-Nazi murderers running Ukraine (all things said in public by Putin, or in Russian official statements). This story is for their domestic audience. It is expected to be believed not because it is true, but because belief in it shows loyalty to the government. Contradicting it is close to treason. It can be punished by 15 years in prison. Again, that's official, & published. It's a new law.

Russian soldiers are reported to have been told that any car being driven up to a checkpoint could be a car bomb, & that everywhere in Ukraine is full of Nazis.

The giving of food & other aid is done in front of cameras, in what appear to be carefully staged photo-ops.

All the information we have suggests that they didn't go all-out from the start because they didn't expect significant resistance. They expected Ukraine to collapse almost immediately. It was supposed to be a walk in the park. They made exactly the same mistake in 1939, when they invaded Finland. They believed their own propaganda. It worked in Czechoslovakia in 1968, didn't it? All the times it didn't are the exceptions: the one success is the rule. They even had a triumphal press release ready to put out, & putting it online wasn't cancelled in time, so it was briefly (but long enough to be downloaded a few times) on the net, before being taken down.

Why did they leave the bodies in the street in Bucha (& elsewhere)? Maybe to terrorise the locals into obedience. Maybe they were just so demoralised & undisciplined that nobody ordered them to be removed, or if orders were given, they were ignored. They didn't leave all the bodies, in Bucha or elsewhere. They cleared some away & buried them, but quickly & carelessly. They burned some, but amateurishly & haphazardly. There are part-burned bodies in the streets, with tyres or other things heaped on them to help them burn. Some bodies have been piled up & burned. Some cars seem to have been set alight with bodies in them.

The crude, haphazard & hurried attempts to burn bodies suggest disorganisation, & perhaps an attempt to clear up immediately before the withdrawal, with fires being set but no waiting to see if they took. The chaotic & filthy state of some Russian camps also suggests demoralisation, disorganisation & indiscipline.

It all looks as if the troops were ill-prepared for what they encountered & that in many areas that led to a collapse in discipline. Soldiers were distracted by looting, initially because they were hungry (but it developed into large-scale pillaging, e.g. loading lorries with washing machines & driving them to Belarus), were disoriented & frightened by the unexpected resistance, the missiles that come out of nowhere & blow up their vehicles, snipers trying to pick out officers, & the hostility of the local people. And they weren't punished for shooting people, or stealing from them, so there was nothing to stop them taking out their fear or frustration on those unfriendly civilians. And once you've started & aren't punished, such things can snowball.

The Russian leadership certainly didn't expect the unified response they got. They're probably shocked & scared, & not sure what to do. I've no idea if they're right, but a few people claim to have detected stress in Putin's voice in his public announcements since early March. I suspect that they didn't have a plan to deal with sanctions on the scale that's occurred, any more than they had a plan to deal with military setbacks, or the quantity or quality of military aid that's been given to Ukraine.

Putin et al have been a bit like headless chickens still running around.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Is it just possible that a rogue element within the Ukraine military has been able to launch the attack on its own citizens?
This would be a potential win-win for Russia as it would disrupt civilian evacuation, sow seeds of doubt in the Ukraine military, and if proven to come from the Ukraine side be disastrous for them,

Edit - in normal times it would be difficult to steal and launch a missile, but I am assuming that both sides have munitions of all sorts at a state of readiness pending a planned operation, or held against certain circumstances. Could a local commander then wrongly act on his own initiative?
Are you suggesting a Ukrainian unit that is a Russian or Rebel sleeper cell? If so that would be a possibility because that is something that the Spetznaz would organise. TBH though that's a waste of resources for such an OP because there would be far more valuable targets.

No I do not believe that a local Ukrainian commander would go massacring his own people on his own initiative unless he's a psychopath or an enemy plant. But why would his troops follow his orders because they would know that it would be wrong murdering their own people. I could understand it might happen if it was in Russia, but not in their motherland.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I have been diligently following this thread since the outbreak of hostilities. And im afraid to say the quality of the posts imho have degraded somewhat. In many ways this thread has devolved into an anti Russian treatise. I wish we could get back on point and focus on the military updates and that speculation remained in the military operational sphere.
In response to the discussion, I will provide my 2 cents however. If we take the prinxipal of "qui bono", it is clear that stopping civilians from leaving Kramatorsk does not help Russian aims. A depopulated city is easier to capture, whereas as one that is not is much harder to, as we have seen in this war and others.
You're assuming a carefully thought-out strategy which everyone is aware of & is following. The evidence is against it. For example, the ghastly mess left behind after the chaotic withdrawal from the environs of Kyiv suggests a high degree of disorganisation & indiscipline.

And we know that the original plan was unrealistic & the initial response to the realisation that it wasn't working was disorganised.

The Russian army is obviously neither robotic, nor filled with well-trained, well-informed & well-focused troops at all levels.

Look at the evacuation of Mariupol. As you say, it would have been easier to capture if every civilian who wanted to was allowed to leave, but it's been stop-start, refugeee convoys have been fired on, one day a convoy's allowed in but next day they're stopped by the Russians, with no explanation.
 
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Larso66

Member
It's been mentioned in quite a few reports that some of the bodies in Bucha were visible in satellite images taken during the Russian occupation. (If someone has a specific source feel free to add it please) To me this reveals the thuggish nature of elements of the Russian army. It was infamous for the way it brutalised conscripts, to the extent there was a scandal over the number of soldiers who died from the hazing. It is a few decades since I read this but from memory, the deaths ran into the hundreds. To survive that system, you often have to become a brute yourself. For all the talk of the modernising of the Russian military, that sort of culture likely continued to a strong degree. In Bucha we are seeing the result.

The other thing is the debacle in leaving the bodies lying around. Certainly incompetence is part of that but also their belief they wouldn't be expelled from the area. It is an astonishing own goal.

Edit - a quick search revealed quite a few interesting sites about non-combat deaths in the Russian military. It seems many of the deaths were suicides strongly linked to brutal conditions and treatment.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
It all looks as if the troops were ill-prepared for what they encountered & that in many areas that led to a collapse in discipline.
We know that some units were only told they were going in 48 hours prior; that it would be mopping up operation and grateful locals would be out in droves welcoming them.

The Russian leadership certainly didn't expect the unified response they got.
After the 2nd Chechen war; Georgia and Syria; Putin should have had a better understanding of military matters and he should have been better informed as to the actual capabilities of his armed forces; forced to enter combat with serious handicaps because of highly flawed assumptions at the political level. I don't have any sources but it's my personal opinion that had the political leadership not made such a blunder; the military would have gone in better prepared - the initial missile strikes would have been more extensive [they wanted to avoid alienating the locals]; they would have paid more emphasis to logistics and they wouldn't have held back some of their capabilities.

Lots of interesting footage on these Ukrainian videos.


 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
We know that some units were only told they were going in 48 hours prior; that it would be mopping up operation and grateful locals would be out in droves welcoming them.



After the 2nd Chechen war; Georgia and Syria; Putin should have had a better understanding of military matters and he should have been better informed as to the actual capabilities of his armed forces; forced to enter combat with serious handicaps because of highly flawed assumptions at the political level. I don't have any sources but it's my personal opinion that had the political leadership not made such a blunder; the military would have gone in better prepared - the initial missile strikes would have been more extensive [they wanted to avoid alienating the locals]; they would have paid more emphasis to logistics and they wouldn't have held back some of their capabilities.

Lots of interesting footage on these Ukrainian videos.


No honest assessment for either the Russian or Ukrainian forces as well as Ukrainian citizens will to resist seems to be the root cause for the Russian C-F. Question is was Russian intelligence/military leadership so bad no proper assessment was possible or did they fear telling Putin the truth?
 
This thread is becoming the opposite of occam's razor, people searching for excuses and explanations without any evidence to support these suppositions.

What we do know is that we have the intercepted communications from speigel


"German Intelligence Intercepts Radio Traffic Discussing the Murder of Civilians"


we have statements by amnesty international

"New today, our latest from Ukraine - we've verified additional cases of executions in Bucha & Kyiv suburbs. To the deniers: we interviewed witnesses weeks ago, before we could corroborate their cases w/ video, & we have the electronic receipts to prove it. "


We have Ria Novosti (russian state media) calling for genocide


"Yesterday, RIA Novosti published a lengthy piece titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine", which explains in detail what Russia understands by denazification. It's truly horrific"


We have multiple pictures, some posted in this thread, of civilians with their hands bound and shot, many shot in the head. It doesn't take much to establish the pattern here. The russians are doing exactly what they said they were going to do, "de-nazify" Ukraine. Unfortunately as russia has said many times, every Ukrainian is a nazi, the country is full of them, including civilians, women, children etc. You can rarely take russia at it's word but in this case, their actions match their words.
I like to analyze every argument before believing anything or taking a position. Let´s analyze this situation:

  • Spiegel has published a piece talking about an allegedly intercepted communications of russian talking about killings in Bucha. This audio has not been released, so technically we dont know anything. it´s up to how much you trust spiegel, or german intellegence(which is not a neutral player).
  • I have seen in the internet video interviews with civilians telling totally opposite stories. Some call out russians killing civilians, some call out ukranians doing the same.
  • Amnesty international is not a neutral organization, it is know that it was created by the British Government foreign office and it´s banned in several non-western countries. (Amnesty International - Wikipedia )

I dont know what happened in Bucha, I am just saying that the arguments I have seen from either party are very weak and we will probably wont know the truth after some time. I think that most people are just cherrypicking information to support their pre-conceived ideas, either pro-ukranian or pro-russian.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Question is was Russian intelligence/military leadership so bad no proper assessment was possible or did they fear telling Putin the truth?
I find it hard to believe that Russian intelligence would have made such a major miscalculation. My take is that Putin actually believed some of his own propaganda and discounted what he was told.


''For decades, intelligence had normally been something to share with as few individuals as possible. No longer. The decision had been taken to make the whole world know about it.''

''This not only marked a dramatic shift in the way Western intelligence had been operating - it also meant confronting the painful legacy of the invasion of Iraq.''

''A crucial moment came in early November when CIA Director William Burns travelled to Moscow - to warn that Washington knew what was being planned. The trip was not kept secret. The first time some Russian officials were told that their country might be seriously intending to act against Ukraine was when they heard it from the director of the CIA, one official says.''
 
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Big Slick

New Member
Does anyone know what the prewar population numbered east of the Dnieper? Any estimates of current population east of the Dnieper? I’m having difficulty finding a prewar population number.
 

Big Slick

New Member

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Around Kiev.

Destroyed Ukrainian BTR-3 near Kiev.


Old footage near Kiev, from a top a T-80BV tank, 40th Marine Bde. They were allegedly the first ones who broke through to the air assault element in Gostomel'.


Pole taping in Borodyanka.


The North.

There's info that Russian aircraft are rebasing out of Belarus and into Bryansk region.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Ukrainian army depots in Lozovaya got hit by a Russian strike.


Destroyed army trucks near Sumy, most likely Ukrainian.


BTR-4 knocked out and captured near Kharkov.


Battle damage in Russkaya Lozovaya, a village near Kharkov. It was allegedly hit by a Ukrainian strike due to Russian presence nearby.


The 200th Motor-Rifles near Kharkov. The unit has seen heavy fighting.


Russian National Guard operating the Bulat armored car in Kharkov region.


Russian soldier in Kupyansk, near Kharkov.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian strikes in Novomoskovsk, Dnepropetrovsk region.


Weapons captured by Russian forces in Pologi, Zaporozhskaya region.


Pole taping, Zaporozhye.


Ukrainian security forces beating detained civilians, possible Dnepropetrovsk. They are allegedly local criminals. Warning graphic footage.


Firefighters in Dnepropetrovsk putting out a fire at a fuel storage facility, battle damage from Russian strikes.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian 11356 frigate firing missiles, location and context unclear.


Kherson, humanitarian aid being distributed. It was noted earlier that these displays are highly public and clearly meant for PR. I submit that there is another aspect to this (not taking away from the PR angle but in addition to it). These cities have had their normal supply chains and resources disrupted or eliminated. If Russia doesn't distribute humanitarian aid, it would cause problems, including more looting, more unrest, and quite possibly a major humanitarian crisis. Dealing with those things is flat out more difficult and expensive then just handing out some food and water out of the back of a truck. The hearts and minds aspect is not to be underestimated either.


Russian humanitarian aid arrives in Snegirevka, near Nikolaev.

 
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