The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
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Updated list of weapons from the US to Ukraine: Live updates: Russia invades Ukraine, EU approves more sanctions (cnn.com)
Edit: According to bne IntelliNews the UK has already sent Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Odesa: bne IntelliNews - Nato to send more, and possibly more powerful, weapons to Ukraine finally!
It also says that the US will send 100 "soviet area tanks". I did not know the US had such equipment?
- More than 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems
- More than 5,000 Javelin anti-armor systems
- More than 7,000 other anti-armor systems
- Hundreds of Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
- Over 50,000,000 rounds of ammunition
- 45,000 sets of body armor and helmets
- Laser-guided rocket systems
- Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems
- Night vision devices, thermal imagery systems, and optics
- Commercial satellite imagery services
Edit: According to bne IntelliNews the UK has already sent Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Odesa: bne IntelliNews - Nato to send more, and possibly more powerful, weapons to Ukraine finally!
It also says that the US will send 100 "soviet area tanks". I did not know the US had such equipment?
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Details, details. The ABC reports on air in Brisbane that they're all painted with red crosses and will be usefull evacuating civilians from places under seige. Then Kelly Higgins Devine commented that it's quicker to use the Bushmaster to fly casualties out. A brief stony silence from the ABC reporter who'd been to Amberley, then he tells her that they are armoured trucks...
DETAILS 2 Only ONE of the initial four is marked with a red cross. The ambulance version is different inside and out, I assume three standard PMVs and one ambulance.
oldsig
Loves me some ABC credibility
Rock the kasbah
Active Member
I hear you but who cares about the sea of avov
This Guy update in my opinion quite neutral as he try to cross and double check information on validities of information available around.
Invasion Day 43 – Summary - MilitaryLand.net
The summary of the 43rd day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 7th of April 2022 (Kyiv time). First Ukrainian reinforcements arrived to Luhansk Oblast while Russian army continues to regroup and move additional units to Donbas. The situation remain stable on all fronts, but that’ll...militaryland.net
Compared with Military Land that more or less put Ukranian sources first then Russian ones. Still both of them shown similar picture. Russian main aim in this war.
For me since the beginning of this invasion there's always two constant goal that Russia has put. Donbas and Security of Crimea. You have to see from 2014 how Crimea and Donbas always become minimal threshold obsession from Russia.
How to secure Crimea and Donbas is already clear from beginning of the war with what they are doing in East and South. Securing and destroying Ukranian army in Donbas. Securing Crimea access on existing Dnieper water line (which closed by Ukranian after 2014 Crimea annexation).
This two goals depends on how far Russia can pacified Ukraine Donbas force. This's the best trained Army unit in Ukranian Army. Pacified that, means secured Donbas and Sea of Azov coasts (thus including Crimean security).
Perhaps after that Putin can claim his victory and Russian and Separatist forces will dig in. Off all reports on Russian losses, few in Western mainstream media talk on how extensive the Ukranian losses, except some more independent media. This is after all from second week of the war already turn in to war of Attrition.
Ukraine practically lost all their Military Industrial Complex and makes what ever they have lost practically irreplaceable, even with continue West support. The capabilities to rebuild their military level. Well unless US want to continue pour billions over billions to bankroll them.
Channel from there to other areas seems tight
It's all about Odessa
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Odessa I do believe depends more on how far the damage the Russian can do with Ukraine Army in Donbas. They have take much resources to subdue Mariupol. I suspect similar resources at least need to be commited for Nicolayev.
Odessa will be different ball game to invade. Also by Russian already controlling all sea of Azov coasts, and (if they manage) Nicolayev, they already control mouth of Dnieper. Practically potential risk for Crimea from most all sides already been covered.
Thus if Putin still have enough apetite for Odessa, they have to calculate what they have left after they manage securing Donbas and potential later on Nikolayev. Those fronts will be very taxing on Russian resources. It will be bloody attrition battle. No doubt about that.
Breaking news: Russia has attacked a train station used in the evacuation of civilians:
No doubt the numbers of dead and injured will increase as they get a better overview of the situation. Another horrible event in Ukraine, hitting civilians trying to escape the war.
Ukraine war latest: Dozens feared dead as rockets hit train station in east Ukraine - BBC News
No doubt the numbers of dead and injured will increase as they get a better overview of the situation. Another horrible event in Ukraine, hitting civilians trying to escape the war.
Part 2 of 3: Aggression & war crimes
7. Not sure why the Russian Army is so broken —
extrajudicially executing civilians = war crimes.
8. More evidence.
9. Horrid pictures of injured and dead at Kramatorsk train station below. The railway station was reportedly struck by two missiles (looks like Tockha-U 9M79-1 tactical ballistic missiles). The way some are losing their shit on Telegram trying to prove it wasn't the Russians who carried out the Kramatorsk strike is sad. You just have to shake your head at such attempts. Viewer discretion advised.
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7. Not sure why the Russian Army is so broken —
extrajudicially executing civilians = war crimes.
8. More evidence.
9. Horrid pictures of injured and dead at Kramatorsk train station below. The railway station was reportedly struck by two missiles (looks like Tockha-U 9M79-1 tactical ballistic missiles). The way some are losing their shit on Telegram trying to prove it wasn't the Russians who carried out the Kramatorsk strike is sad. You just have to shake your head at such attempts. Viewer discretion advised.
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May be from another country, but shipped by the USA. BTW, should that be "Soviet era tanks"?
This war may not be about NATO or denazification of Ukraine to protect Russians as claimed by Putin, but a good old fashioned robbery writ large, with a side dishes of Russian imperialism, arrogance, snobbery, intense dislike, and prejudice against their Ukrainian neighbours.
First of all the situation at the moment. As can be seen on the map above, the Russians control the area in red on the bottom right. That is the Donbas basin and where most of Ukraine's heavy industry is located. The rest is on the south towards Odessa which is in the south western most part or Ukraine near the Moldovan border. I have drawn on the amp the two important points which I explain below.
What I believe the Russian plan will be, is to drive west towards the Transnistrian breakaway province of Moldova and link up with that, incorporating the whole area below the red arrow into an occupied zone. Then it will move east around the top of the black ellipse to link up with forces in the the northern points of the Donbas basin enveloping Ukrainian forces within that circle. This is a strategy which the Russians have used successfully before inflicting much pain on the German Wehrmacht in the same area by large pincer movements resulting in encirclements and subsequent squeezing of pockets before annihilation. The terrain is built for such wide sweeping actions.
If it is successful it will proceed to destroy the Ukrainian forces caught in the encirclement and then will have achieved its main object the: occupation of the Dnieper- Donbas geological basin and it's hydrocarbon deposits, which are mainly gas, trillions of cubic metres of gas. I believe that this is the main Russian plan all along and is both the political and military objective. Anything else is diversionary.
And this is the estimate of the gas reserves.
Both of these maps are from this blog, Dances With Bears » THE CRIMEA EFFECT — WHOEVER CONTROLS CRIMEA CONTROLS HUGE RESERVES OF OFFSHORE GAS, BUT MAYBE THAT WON’T BE EXXONMOBIL OR NATHANIEL ROTHSCHILD (johnhelmer.net) and are from a speech given by Georhii Rudko, the chairman of the Ukrainian State Commission for Natural Resources in the Yanukovych government, in London just before Yanukovych was impeached by the Ukrainian Parliament. Of course shale as is difficult to extract, but it's still a threat to Russian domination of the European market, and since the Putin government is a kleptocracy and one could argue works similar to the infamous Russian mafia, such a forced acquisition wouldn't be above Putin and his cronies. 19 - 2- trillion cubic metres of gas is real money in anybody's language.
However the Russians have a problem and whilst on paper they may have the numbers and equipment, they are still wedded to Soviet strategies, tactics, command and control procedures. The Ukrainians aren't any longer and even though they are well versed and practised in them, they use that knowledge and expertise to their advantage. They know to let the armoured spearhead to role through and then destroy the logistics tail. No resupply of fuel, ammo or food, means the Russian armoured spearhead is more or less impotent and stranded. All they can do is fume and rage where they are. Then the Ukrainians can bypass or deal with them at their leisure. The ill-discipline of the Russian forces helps when they abandon their equipment in situ without destroying it, enabling the Ukrainians to reuse it for themselves.
The Russians don't appear to be able to make a tactical decision without having to go up the command chain, meaning they are a quite slow in reacting to a fast changing situation, whereas the Ukrainian in command on site will make a tactical decision on the spot and its done. The Ukrainians have been western trained to think for themselves and quickly, to take advantage of ever changing situations and to move quickly without waiting for orders. And it shows, especially when they are using ATGM and MANPADs.
However if the Ukrainian main forces are trapped and destroyed in the Donbas pocket then that will be a major defeat for Ukraine and something that it will find difficult to recover from. If the Russians suffer a defeat there, then it will provide a huge problem for Putin and may cause him to do something really stupid. Or it may cause him to be replaced. If the Russians do succeed in link up with Transnistria and holding the Ukrainian occupied territory, that will create a major problem for Moldova, Romania, and most likely Georgia, because Putin will want to take more bites of the European pie. He's going to do his nut about Finland and probably Sweden joining NATO, but he has no-one else to blame but himself. The fact that Switzerland has put aside it's centuries old cloak of neutrality and is providing help to Ukraine, just shows how far Putin has driven European nations to oppose him.
What happens in the next few weeks will determine the fate of millions.
First of all the situation at the moment. As can be seen on the map above, the Russians control the area in red on the bottom right. That is the Donbas basin and where most of Ukraine's heavy industry is located. The rest is on the south towards Odessa which is in the south western most part or Ukraine near the Moldovan border. I have drawn on the amp the two important points which I explain below.
What I believe the Russian plan will be, is to drive west towards the Transnistrian breakaway province of Moldova and link up with that, incorporating the whole area below the red arrow into an occupied zone. Then it will move east around the top of the black ellipse to link up with forces in the the northern points of the Donbas basin enveloping Ukrainian forces within that circle. This is a strategy which the Russians have used successfully before inflicting much pain on the German Wehrmacht in the same area by large pincer movements resulting in encirclements and subsequent squeezing of pockets before annihilation. The terrain is built for such wide sweeping actions.
If it is successful it will proceed to destroy the Ukrainian forces caught in the encirclement and then will have achieved its main object the: occupation of the Dnieper- Donbas geological basin and it's hydrocarbon deposits, which are mainly gas, trillions of cubic metres of gas. I believe that this is the main Russian plan all along and is both the political and military objective. Anything else is diversionary.
The Dnieper-Donetsk Basin is situated in north-eastern Ukraine and is the principal producer of hydrocarbons in the country. Measuring 500 by 100 km, with a depocentre >15 km, the elongate, Late Devonian rift basin is bounded by the Russian craton to the north-east and by the Precambrian Ukrainian shield to the south-west. Devonian rift sediments are overlain by a Carboniferous to Early Permian post-rift sag sequence.
Most of the hydrocarbon accumulations are found within the post-rift series and are related to salt induced traps. Source rock intervals reached maturity by the end of the Palaeozoic and basin inversion episodes are thought to be responsible for the complex charge/trap timing scenarios encountered in the basin.
This m shows the hydrocarbon resources within the country.And this is the estimate of the gas reserves.
Both of these maps are from this blog, Dances With Bears » THE CRIMEA EFFECT — WHOEVER CONTROLS CRIMEA CONTROLS HUGE RESERVES OF OFFSHORE GAS, BUT MAYBE THAT WON’T BE EXXONMOBIL OR NATHANIEL ROTHSCHILD (johnhelmer.net) and are from a speech given by Georhii Rudko, the chairman of the Ukrainian State Commission for Natural Resources in the Yanukovych government, in London just before Yanukovych was impeached by the Ukrainian Parliament. Of course shale as is difficult to extract, but it's still a threat to Russian domination of the European market, and since the Putin government is a kleptocracy and one could argue works similar to the infamous Russian mafia, such a forced acquisition wouldn't be above Putin and his cronies. 19 - 2- trillion cubic metres of gas is real money in anybody's language.
However the Russians have a problem and whilst on paper they may have the numbers and equipment, they are still wedded to Soviet strategies, tactics, command and control procedures. The Ukrainians aren't any longer and even though they are well versed and practised in them, they use that knowledge and expertise to their advantage. They know to let the armoured spearhead to role through and then destroy the logistics tail. No resupply of fuel, ammo or food, means the Russian armoured spearhead is more or less impotent and stranded. All they can do is fume and rage where they are. Then the Ukrainians can bypass or deal with them at their leisure. The ill-discipline of the Russian forces helps when they abandon their equipment in situ without destroying it, enabling the Ukrainians to reuse it for themselves.
The Russians don't appear to be able to make a tactical decision without having to go up the command chain, meaning they are a quite slow in reacting to a fast changing situation, whereas the Ukrainian in command on site will make a tactical decision on the spot and its done. The Ukrainians have been western trained to think for themselves and quickly, to take advantage of ever changing situations and to move quickly without waiting for orders. And it shows, especially when they are using ATGM and MANPADs.
However if the Ukrainian main forces are trapped and destroyed in the Donbas pocket then that will be a major defeat for Ukraine and something that it will find difficult to recover from. If the Russians suffer a defeat there, then it will provide a huge problem for Putin and may cause him to do something really stupid. Or it may cause him to be replaced. If the Russians do succeed in link up with Transnistria and holding the Ukrainian occupied territory, that will create a major problem for Moldova, Romania, and most likely Georgia, because Putin will want to take more bites of the European pie. He's going to do his nut about Finland and probably Sweden joining NATO, but he has no-one else to blame but himself. The fact that Switzerland has put aside it's centuries old cloak of neutrality and is providing help to Ukraine, just shows how far Putin has driven European nations to oppose him.
What happens in the next few weeks will determine the fate of millions.
Only 20? One can say that every little helps, but the complication of logistics can outweigh the benefit of tiny packets. I don't know if it will in this case, but it does seem worryingly few.The first 4 of a total of 20 Australian Bushmaster Armoured Vehicles for the Ukraine have been loaded onto a C-17 and flew out this morning.
Russia has fully withdrawn from northern Ukraine, UK authorities say — as it happened
Russian forces have now fully withdrawn from northern Ukraine, pulling back to Belarus and Russia, UK authorities say.www.abc.net.au
Only so many aircraft in our force, and not all will be free to be of use with others either on one mission or another, others in maintenance etc.
Not to mention the matter to get from Amberly to Bucharest Romania flying around Russian airspace is circa 15,000km while with the load of Bushmasters I imagine the range will only be good for 5,000km on a single tank of fuel.
Even though we have a couple hundred that are excess to needs its getting them their that is the issue. If distance wasnt such an issue we could be giving them a couple hundred bushmasters, hell our stock of unimog's of whats left, Land rovers, Even the M198's and L118's that if not mistaken are stored away in reserve. But to get that all their would need a ship, Which would be a month before they see them. Maybe we shouldnt rule that out but for flying stuff in giving them body armor, ammo, food, medical supplies, missiles etc is more valuable to them now then Bushmasters, Bushmasters if anything is more of a sign to NATO "Hey Australia on the otherside of the world still sent us this, What are you going to do?"
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The Bushmasters have Catepillar engines and ZF tranny. If Ukraine can't keep these running, we can forget about sending anything more complicated.
While every bit helps, this has the feel of political theater.
A little bit of that, and then a bit of "crap, now if we only send 4 we'll look like complete twats".
From what I read it's 20 delivered over 3wk - if for some reason they turn out to be perfectly suited then I guess it's possible more will trickle in. I can see the ambo ones being very handy, and wonder whether the stock of those configs is sufficient enough to send more.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
A shame the An-225 wasn’t located somewhere safe. It would be useful transporting kit from Australia (and elsewhere).
I've always been under the impression that it wasn't well suited unless dealing with significantly oversized kit, and was a bit of a "hero aircraft".
Looking at ADS exchange, there are an awful lot of C-17s in the air at a time around the globe - maybe I'm just imagining things but seems more than normal - and that's a lot of airlift capability, of which Australia would have a number. I've noticed though that Australia's C-17s (and most ADF aircraft) go "dark" more than many other nations unless over foreign territory, so very often don't show up.
If they're delivering at that rate it could be worth filling a ship. Dunno if there are any suitable ro-ros to hand in Oz, & it'd take an LHD or LSD out of service for quite a long time, but if you have enough to spare to fill an amphib delivery could be complete sooner than flying at the rate of 20 per 3 weeks. All at once, though.
If they'd been sent a week after the invasion they might be a couple of weeks short of delivery now.
For the doubters, from amnesty international
"
New today, our latest from Ukraine - we've verified additional cases of executions in Bucha & Kyiv suburbs. To the deniers: we interviewed witnesses weeks ago, before we could corroborate their cases w/ video, & we have the electronic receipts to prove it."
"
New today, our latest from Ukraine - we've verified additional cases of executions in Bucha & Kyiv suburbs. To the deniers: we interviewed witnesses weeks ago, before we could corroborate their cases w/ video, & we have the electronic receipts to prove it."
At this stage I'm remaining hopeful that the atrocities are not a policy or strategy, but a sign of some foundational unit problems (training, culture, discipline etc), and that it isn't going to have been universal across the conflict.
Perhaps a stretch with my level of optimism, however there certainly have been videos that appeared authentic of Russian units being very reluctant to do as much as push their truck through a crowd of civilians. I don't agree with what Russia is doing, but they won't all be animals.
Perhaps a stretch with my level of optimism, however there certainly have been videos that appeared authentic of Russian units being very reluctant to do as much as push their truck through a crowd of civilians. I don't agree with what Russia is doing, but they won't all be animals.
President and Vice President of the EU Commission along with Slovak PM are in the Ukrainian capital.
Kramatorsk’s mayor also said about 4,000 people were at the train station when the missile attack occurred — The death toll has risen to 50 people killed, including 5 children, at Kramatorsk's railway station. President Zelenskyy reacts to train station attack in Kramatorsk and said:
Kramatorsk’s mayor also said about 4,000 people were at the train station when the missile attack occurred — The death toll has risen to 50 people killed, including 5 children, at Kramatorsk's railway station. President Zelenskyy reacts to train station attack in Kramatorsk and said:
“Lacking the strength and courage to fight with us on the battlefield, they (Russians) are cynically destroying the civilian population. This is an evil that has no limits. And if it is not punished, it will never stop.”
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Good, it makes no sense for the regular Ukrainain millitary forces trapped in Mauripol to keep on fighting. They are encircled and cannot be resupplied.
The Russians wont kill them like they will Azov. The UA troops will probably get exchanged for Russian Pows and live to fight another day.
Russia should upload videos of the Mauriopol POWs being well treated and offer surrender terms for the regular UA soldiers. Mauripol is done for, both sides can spare lives of their soldiers from this.