The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

9. Horrid pictures of injured and dead at Kramatorsk train station below. The railway station was reportedly struck by two missiles (looks like Tockha-U 9M79-1 tactical ballistic missiles). The way some are losing their shit on Telegram trying to prove it wasn't the Russians who carried out the Kramatorsk strike is sad. You just have to shake your head at such attempts. Viewer discretion advised.
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In all fairness, Tochka missiles have not been seen in use by Russia so far. The best we have is some grainy footage of a Tochka column, allegeldy Russian. But it's unclear (some claim it's a Belorussian column on exercises with Russia, and the vehicles don't have the Z or V markings). Initial sources attributed the attack to a Russian Iskander. Now it's clearly a Tochka. I haven't had time to look into questions like the trajectory, and it would make some sense that Russia, trying to strike a logistic node on the railroad with a less-then-accurate older missile system missed and hit a civilian evacuation area.

 

[GermanHerman]

9. Horrid pictures of injured and dead at Kramatorsk train station below. The railway station was reportedly struck by two missiles (looks like Tockha-U 9M79-1 tactical ballistic missiles). The way some are losing their shit on Telegram trying to prove it wasn't the Russians who carried out the Kramatorsk strike is sad. You just have to shake your head at such attempts. Viewer discretion advised.

It seems the main argument of the pro russian side is that russia apparently dosnt use Tochkha-U anymore.

This is albeit the fact that russia is not only in possession of a vast arsenal of these rockets but that these are documented to be in the theatre and have been used as early as february the 24th.

At the same time russia is flat out denying any war crimes in the face of mounting evidence Ukraine has repeatedly condemned war crimes allegedly carried out by troops under it's command.

So while I want to share @phreeky s optimism I think the way both countries are handling the accusations against them is fairly revealing. The refusal to accept any form of guilt on a national level will no doubt have a negativ impact on discipline.

In addition we did hear about kill lists of russia prior to the war and Dr. Karber goes into some details about russian extrajudicial killings in the Donbass in his lectures.

So there is some basis to believe those killings might be part of a broader russian strategy.

 

[John Fedup]

I've always been under the impression that it wasn't well suited unless dealing with significantly oversized kit, and was a bit of a "hero aircraft".

Looking at ADS exchange, there are an awful lot of C-17s in the air at a time around the globe - maybe I'm just imagining things but seems more than normal - and that's a lot of airlift capability, of which Australia would have a number. I've noticed though that Australia's C-17s (and most ADF aircraft) go "dark" more than many other nations unless over foreign territory, so very often don't show up.

An-124s would perhaps be more useful and Canada contracted them for transporting our Leo tanks to Afghanistan during our mission there even though some C-17 deliveries had been made. An-124s were larger and could handle greater weights (An-225 even more). Bottom line, strategic lift is limited except for the US so having any Antonov alternatives would be helpful. UK, Australia, Canada, and the European fleets are perhaps a little less than 30 and are in high demand (and not replaceable).

 

[QEDdeq]

In all fairness, Tochka missiles have not been seen in use by Russia so far. The best we have is some grainy footage of a Tochka column, allegeldy Russian. But it's unclear (some claim it's a Belorussian column on exercises with Russia, and the vehicles don't have the Z or V markings). Initial sources attributed the attack to a Russian Iskander. Now it's clearly a Tochka. I haven't had time to look into questions like the trajectory, and it would make some sense that Russia, trying to strike a logistic node on the railroad with a less-then-accurate older missile system missed and hit a civilian evacuation area.

The question I have about the scene on Kramatorsk train station is that it doesn't look like a big missile hit and exploded there. There should be a huge crater from the missile strike right? The asphalt should be dark from the burning and lost of small concrete pieces all around the place. What I see on the photos available online are a few cars that were on fire, mostly clean asphalt, and finally lots of bags. And then an unexploded missile but I suppose that one is not culpable for the alleged damage.

Are there any specialists in explosives who can detail how would the ground actually look like if a Tochka missile or similar caliber would hit and explode on that train station? Does anyone have photos of the actual impact? Either a massive destruction of the train station building, or if it landed near the building a huge crater on the ground?

 

[GermanHerman]

The question I have about the scene on Kramatorsk train station is that it doesn't look like a big missile hit and exploded there. There should be a huge crater from the missile strike right? The asphalt should be dark from the burning and lost of small concrete pieces all around the place. What I see on the photos available online are a few cars that were on fire, mostly clean asphalt, and finally lots of bags. And then an unexploded missile but I suppose that one is not culpable for the alleged damage.

Are there any specialists in explosives who can detail how would the ground actually look like if a Tochka missile or similar caliber would hit and explode on that train station? Does anyone have photos of the actual impact? Either a massive destruction of the train station building, or if it landed near the building a huge crater on the ground?

The Tochka-U can deliver cluster submunitions which would not lead to a crater and is in fact the type of warhead used in the attack .

The link to Bellingcat contains some of the aftermath of a strike with the Tochkha-U with cluster submunition for comparsion.

 

[Feanor]

The question I have about the scene on Kramatorsk train station is that it doesn't look like a big missile hit and exploded there. There should be a huge crater from the missile strike right? The asphalt should be dark from the burning and lost of small concrete pieces all around the place. What I see on the photos available online are a few cars that were on fire, mostly clean asphalt, and finally lots of bags. And then an unexploded missile but I suppose that one is not culpable for the alleged damage.

Are there any specialists in explosives who can detail how would the ground actually look like if a Tochka missile or similar caliber would hit and explode on that train station? Does anyone have photos of the actual impact? Either a massive destruction of the train station building, or if it landed near the building a huge crater on the ground?

There was a Tochka missile fragment or (I think?) booster stage near the impact. That's how it was identified.

 

[QEDdeq]

The Tochka-U can deliver cluster submunitions which would not lead to a crater and is in fact the type of warhead used in the attack .

The link to Bellingcat contains some of the aftermath of a strike with the Tochkha-U with cluster submunition for comparsion.

Thanks, that explains it I guess. Although by looking at the photos and video posted on Ukrinform I can't spot any fragments of exploded cluster munitions near the bodies, like for example these 9N235. I don't know if these are the same munitions they would load in a Tochka rocket but they have to be somewhat similar, maybe bigger.

As far as I understand how these rockets containing cluster munitions work, since the rocket splits in two and they explode in the air, the place should be littered by fragments from the exploded charges, or even unexploded ones. Is there an explanation why no fragments can be seen near the bodies? Maybe first thing they did was to clean all the fragments thinking there might still be a risk from unexploded ones?
Warning: footage of corpses
Videos and photos from the scene

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Thanks, that explains it I guess. Although by looking at the photos and video posted on Ukrinform I can't spot any fragments of exploded cluster munitions near the bodies, like for example these 9N235. I don't know if these are the same munitions they would load in a Tochka rocket but they have to be somewhat similar, maybe bigger.

As far as I understand how these rockets containing cluster munitions work, since the rocket splits in two and they explode in the air, the place should be littered by fragments from the exploded charges, or even unexploded ones. Is there an explanation why no fragments can be seen near the bodies? Maybe first thing they did was to clean all the fragments thinking there might still be a risk from unexploded ones?
Warning: footage of corpses
Videos and photos from the scene

I am not familiar with this site, but could find nothing bad about it (not on any baddie lists I could find), so here's hoping it is not some fake troll news site. It has some good pictures and video of the debris of a 9M79-1 Tochka-U missile carrying a 9N123K cluster warhead reportedly shot down over Donetsk on March 14. Although it was reportedly intercepted, the debris still reportedly killed 20 and injured many more.

Powerful Tochka-U Missile 'Shot-Down' Mid Air Over Donetsk; Its Debris Kills Scores In The Contested Region -- Reports

Ukrainian forces reportedly fired a Tochka-U tactical missile at a residential block in Donetsk on March 14, killing 20 people, including children. The missile was intercepted over an area controlled by Russian-backed forces, but fragments of it dropped in the city center, the head of the...

eurasiantimes.com

I don't know whether this would be helpful for comparison, just offering in case.

EDIT: Sorry about using the word "reportedly" so many times. I wish there was a way tag entire paragraphs as "reportedly" but alas.

 

[QEDdeq]

I am not familiar with this site, but could find nothing bad about it (not on any baddie lists I could find), so here's hoping it is not some fake troll news site. It has some good pictures and video of the debris of a 9M79-1 Tochka-U missile carrying a 9N123K cluster warhead reportedly shot down over Donetsk on March 14. Although it was reportedly intercepted, the debris still reportedly killed 20 and injured many more.

Powerful Tochka-U Missile 'Shot-Down' Mid Air Over Donetsk; Its Debris Kills Scores In The Contested Region -- Reports

Ukrainian forces reportedly fired a Tochka-U tactical missile at a residential block in Donetsk on March 14, killing 20 people, including children. The missile was intercepted over an area controlled by Russian-backed forces, but fragments of it dropped in the city center, the head of the...

eurasiantimes.com

I don't know whether this would be helpful for comparison, just offering in case.

Thanks, the two scenes look indeed quite similar.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Thanks, the two scenes look indeed quite similar.

When I first read your post, I remembered the Donetsk strike and wondered if lack of fragments indicated that this one had also been intercepted yet managed to kill many civilians. I am no expert in these things and leave it to the professionals here. There is no report that it was, so maybe that is way off base. Still, it is hours after this happened and the full picture is not clear yet -- this is always the case in the first hours and days, whether a terrorist attack somewhere, a mass shooting by some mentally ill person, or something like this, in the midst of a foreign war. More will be known in coming days. I sincerely hope we don't learn of more deaths, though, and the wounded will all pull through.

 

[STURM]

For some reason I can't load this pic.

It's shows the Tochka and says the following "Ukrainian servicemen stand next to part of a Tochka-U missile with the words "For children" written in Russian on its side, after the attack on the railway station in Kramatorsk" [Andriy Andriyenko/AP Photo]

UK’s Johnson meets Zelenskyy in Kyiv ‘in show of solidarity’

Ukrainian and British leaders discuss a new package of financial and military aid, the UK government says.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Stampede]

At this stage I'm remaining hopeful that the atrocities are not a policy or strategy, but a sign of some foundational unit problems (training, culture, discipline etc), and that it isn't going to have been universal across the conflict.

Perhaps a stretch with my level of optimism, however there certainly have been videos that appeared authentic of Russian units being very reluctant to do as much as push their truck through a crowd of civilians. I don't agree with what Russia is doing, but they won't all be animals.

I don't know the answer but the positivity is refreshing.
I hope it is not Russian army doctrine and just the actions of lawless, ill disciplined, unprofessional thuds wearing green who have no respect for their command or acceptable personal standards of ethics to prevent their repugnant actions.

This is an unacceptable war made worse worse by such barbarity, which is turn made worse by their denial.

Does Putin sleep well at night?

Regards S

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

For some reason I can't load this pic.

It's shows the Tochka and says the following "Ukrainian servicemen stand next to part of a Tochka-U missile with the words "For children" written in Russian on its side, after the attack on the railway station in Kramatorsk" [Andriy Andriyenko/AP Photo]

UK’s Johnson meets Zelenskyy in Kyiv ‘in show of solidarity’

Ukrainian and British leaders discuss a new package of financial and military aid, the UK government says.

www.aljazeera.com

It is almost like that attacks like this are done to damage the image of Russia.
1. If its really done by the Russians, then they were probably thinking "How can we make the world hate us more, give foreign mass media the chance the demonize us better and make the boycots and embargoes worse so our economy will be more devastated."

2. If its staged by the Ukrainians, than its really top level propaganda.

Like in Bucha, why should the Russians execute civillians for fun, and why should they tie the hands of the civillians on the backs first, then shoot them in an executing way, to finally keep the bodies on the street, in order to let the world know that they have done these warcrimes?

Any way, if its was carried out by the Russians, with approval from Moskva, then why do they also give foodpackages and humanitarian aid to the civillians in other cities? And why didn't they go with a full invasion without thinking about civilian casualties/collateral damage (WW II way of war)?

And if its not done by the Russians, why didn't they condemn such horrible acts instead of just denying and coming with unrealistic sounding explanations/accusations?

 

[tonnyc]

@Sandhi Yudha The US a few weeks ago made an assessment that there is no one person in charge of the operation. The contradictory actions fit this hypothesis. One commander may be following a hearts and minds approach. A different one may not care or even believe that a harsh preemptive action will prevent trouble later. So on.

 

[ngatimozart]

It is almost like that attacks like this are done to damage the image of Russia.
1. If its really done by the Russians, then they were probably thinking "How can we make the world hate us more, give foreign mass media the chance the demonize us better and make the boycots and embargoes worse so our economy will be more devastated."

2. If its staged by the Ukrainians, than its really top level propaganda.

Like in Bucha, why should the Russians execute civillians for fun, and why should they tie the hands of the civillians on the backs first, then shoot them in an executing way, to finally keep the bodies on the street, in order to let the world know that they have done these warcrimes?

Any way, if its was carried out by the Russians, with approval from Moskva, then why do they also give foodpackages and humanitarian aid to the civillians in other cities? And why didn't they go with a full invasion without thinking about civilian casualties/collateral damage (WW II way of war)?

And if its not done by the Russians, why didn't they condemn such horrible acts instead of just denying and coming with unrealistic sounding explanations/accusations?

There's enough evidence to suggest that it was Russian forces who committed the atrocities. The question that you fail to ask is why would Ukraine commit such atrocities against its own people especially when it's fighting for its survival against an invader? There's nothing to be gained by Ukraine in committing such atrocities and everything to lose because it would get caught out eventually. The politically implications would be huge from a Ukrainian perspective because it would lose any European and US support, leaving it a pariah on its own to face its doom against Russia.

Russian on the other hand doesn't care. Putin believes that he can do as he wants and this is following a pattern from Afghanistan, Chechnya and possibly Syria. Maybe it's a hangover from USSR days and even before that, who knows, but whatever it is it is not acceptable, legal or forgivable. It's against the laws of war and makes those who have committed these crimes no better than the Nazis that their parents, grandparents, and great grandparents fought in the Great Patriotic War.

In war people do horrible things. No country's forces are immune from it because of the evil nature of war. The Americans have committed war crimes, so have the British, Australians, Canadians, Dutch, French, Germans, Japanese, Chinese, and Kiwis at some stage. In some cases it doesn't get reported and swept under the carpet. The UK & NZ Official Secrets Acts were great pieces of legislation for that. In NZ they could classify the time of day as an official secret if someone deemed it necessary. Sometimes I think it's a shame that they repealed that piece of legislation but for different reasons I hasten to add. However none of this excuses the fact that war crimes were committed.

The Russians aren't condemning them because they aren't doing the PR thing at all well. They have gone back into the old CPSU mould of not commenting if they really have something to hide, haven't got their story or lies straight, or plainly just don't know how to react. One quite plausible answer is that this could be something organised without Kremlin knowledge and people are keeping very quiet about it.

 

[STURM]

Sandhi,

I have no doubt that a Russian missile hit a station killing civilians. I have have nobodies however if the station was intentionally targeted to hit civilians and inscribe the "children" bit. In case anyone jumps in; no I'm not suggesting the Ukrainians wrote it.

As for Bucha to me t looks like the work of a unit which lost control - others think otherwise. Why they didn't bother to hide what they did is the question.

 

[Exonian]

It is almost like that attacks like this are done to damage the image of Russia.
1. If its really done by the Russians, then they were probably thinking "How can we make the world hate us more, give foreign mass media the chance the demonize us better and make the boycots and embargoes worse so our economy will be more devastated."

2. If its staged by the Ukrainians, than its really top level propaganda.

Like in Bucha, why should the Russians execute civillians for fun, and why should they tie the hands of the civillians on the backs first, then shoot them in an executing way, to finally keep the bodies on the street, in order to let the world know that they have done these warcrimes?

Any way, if its was carried out by the Russians, with approval from Moskva, then why do they also give foodpackages and humanitarian aid to the civillians in other cities? And why didn't they go with a full invasion without thinking about civilian casualties/collateral damage (WW II way of war)?

And if its not done by the Russians, why didn't they condemn such horrible acts instead of just denying and coming with unrealistic sounding explanations/accusations?

Is it just possible that a rogue element within the Ukraine military has been able to launch the attack on its own citizens?
This would be a potential win-win for Russia as it would disrupt civilian evacuation, sow seeds of doubt in the Ukraine military, and if proven to come from the Ukraine side be disastrous for them,

Edit - in normal times it would be difficult to steal and launch a missile, but I am assuming that both sides have munitions of all sorts at a state of readiness pending a planned operation, or held against certain circumstances. Could a local commander then wrongly act on his own initiative?

 

[Vivendi]

A Norwegian female volunteer in Ukraine tells about her experiences:

- My team is a small group. They are former special forces from the United States and one from England. And then me, says Eira on the phone.

VG met her in Ukraine on the evening of March 17. Then she would drive in the direction of Mykolajiv through the night. A barracks with about 200 soldiers was hit the next day. Eira says that her team was nearby and was sent to "help lift what was left of the bodies". It is estimated that near all 200 died; only one survivor was recovered from the ruins, in what was one of the biggest single casualties for Ukraine so far in the war.

- What can you say about what you do?
- There is not much I can say about it until everything is finished and over, says Eira, but she refers to what has already been published about the group;
- It is said that we have several "75th rangers". Those who know what it means know what their task is. There's not much more I can say.

- In recent days, the pictures from Butsja have made a strong impression on the whole world. Have they done anything to the mood among the soldiers?
- That was not new to us, it is something we have heard about and seen in several other districts.

It is not the sound or the impressions of the bombs that she remembers.

- It's the little things that stick [in my mind]. It was the look from one of the soldiers, which I knew would die unless I had my fingers on his main artery. So, that look is what stuck. Nothing else.

Google translated from: Sandra Andersen Eira kriger i Ukraina – VG
What an incredibly brave and tough woman. She belongs to the sami people (Sámi - Wikipedia), and has also worked as a fisherwoman, paramedic, and a politician.

A Russian who lived in Norway for many years is fighting on the other side. A neo-nazi, he was expelled from Norway in 2016 after the Norwegian police concluded he was a threat to national security. He is now in Eastern Ukraine, and reportedly leading the Russian militia "Rusich" after their former leader was killed.

Petrovskiy has also previously fought in Ukraine. In an interview with the Norwegian anti-immigration website Frieord.no in 2014, Petrovskiy said that he was a volunteer soldier in the country. When it became known that right-wing extremists were patrolling the Norwegian streets, there was media uproar around the group Odin's soldiers. Petrovskiy was among the Nazis involved in the group. Petrovskiy traveled back and forth between Norway and Ukraine. Here at home, he patrolled the streets in Tønsberg as part of the controversial civil protection group "Odin's soldiers".

Påstår at norskrussisk nynazist kriger for Russland i Ukraina – NRK Norge – Oversikt over nyheter fra ulike deler av landet

Ukranian civilians being shot by Russian soldiers, telling about what happened:

KYIV, Ukraine — Tetyana Vlasenko was bleeding from 12 bullet wounds to her legs when she begged a Russian military officer nearby for help. His soldiers had opened fire on her family’s car, yet the officer was apologetic as the soldiers gave them first aid.

While she lay there seriously hurt, she recalls him saying, “I’m sorry for doing this but we have an order to shoot everything that is moving, and you cannot imagine how many cars like this we have full of Nazis who are trying to bomb us,” Tetyana, 42, told NBC News on Wednesday from her bed in Kyiv City Hospital 17.

Her husband, Roman, 50, and their daughter, Katherina, 16, were also hit in their legs.

The officer’s comments echoed President Vladimir Putin’s accusations of Nazi elements within Ukraine, his stated reason for invading Russia’s western neighbor. Experts have slammed the allegations as slanderous and false.

Tetyana, a former shop worker, said the Russian soldiers she encountered “truly believe that everyone around is a Nazi.” She added that the soldiers “were all terrified,” and she had spoken calmly with them prior to the shooting.

After their house in the village of Vorzel was hit by a Russian strike on March 2, she said, they stayed with neighbors before deciding to leave the community just outside of Ukraine's capital Kyiv.

The family had already fled from Kremlin rule in Crimea after Russian forces annexed the peninsula in 2014, her husband said.

After driving up to the checkpoint at the end of their street, Roman, a former business consultant, said he asked the soldiers whether they could keep moving. “They asked him what his nationality was and why he spoke Russian so well,” Tetyana said.

“They were surprised that we spoke Russian amongst each other. My husband said, ‘We have a free country here, everyone speaks whichever language they like,’” she added. “And I said, ‘Your brains are full of Putin propaganda crap. There are no Nazis here.’”

Ukrainian family shot at checkpoint while trying to flee (nbcnews.com)
Very strong story, and seem to confirm what I suspected already: at least some of the Russian soldiers have been instructed to fire on Ukranian civilians, because they are "all Nazis".

As for Bucha to me t looks like the work of a unit which lost control - others think otherwise. Why they didn't bother to hide what they did is the question.

I think you are wrong that Bucha is "the work of a unit which lost control". Please see the eyewitness accounts above. Perhaps they didn't bother to hide what they did because they believed they had killed "Nazis"?

 

[swerve]

Is it just possible that a rogue element within the Ukraine military has been able to launch the attack on its own citizens?
This would be a potential win-win for Russia as it would disrupt civilian evacuation, sow seeds of doubt in the Ukraine military, and if proven to come from the Ukraine side be disastrous for them,

Edit - in normal times it would be difficult to steal and launch a missile, but I am assuming that both sides have munitions of all sorts at a state of readiness pending a planned operation, or held against certain circumstances. Could a local commander then wrongly act on his own initiative?

Unless someone can come up with more than evidence-free speculation, this suggestion is pandering to Russian propaganda. According to that, the Russian army is trying to save Ukrainian civilians from the Ukrainian army, which shells its own citizens, blows up its own buildings etc., while the Russians look on with horror.

I find it hard to believe that anyone thinks that's really happening.

 

[STURM]

I think you are wrong that Bucha is "the work of a unit which lost control". Please see the eyewitness accounts above. Perhaps they didn't bother to hide what they did because they believed they had killed "Nazis"?

I did not insist i was definitely correct; it was an opinion. A personal one. I believe and I.could be wrong that it was done out of sheer frustration or hatred. The urge to lash out at any one: we've seen this in countless wars where troops due to low morale, ideological reasons, to seek revenge, etc, take it out on defenceless civilians.

In this case it may not have been the work of a unit which had lost control but where did the orders originate from; their commander or much higher up?