The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 of 3: Aggression & war crimes

What I find most fascinating is people on this forum, news media, and quite frankly all over the internet have not paid any attention to what Putin and Russian military has said from the very start.
1. Don’t lie. It’s not just the media who spoke out against an act of aggression by Russia against another country. If you listen to what Putin said on his Televised Address on Ukraine on 24 Feb 2022, it is far worse and even more unacceptable. Let’s quote a translated section of Putin’s speech that show him lying about compliance with the UN Charter and he is in fact, using force by waging war on the territory of another country. But that’s not all, in this war over the past 40 odd days, the Russian Army has committed war crimes.

“In this context, in accordance with Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the UN Charter, with permission of Russia’s Federation Council, and in execution of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a special military operation.​
The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.​
It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force.”​

Practically everything we have been hearing in the western media is their own narrative, and primarily American narrative as to what Russia is doing. This is a narrative that was spun from the very beginning to create a picture of what Russia's goal is, while COMPELTELY ignoring what Lavrov, Putin, and the military has been saying from the onset.
If Western narrative is to be believed then they can paint what a loss or win is, essentially ignoring what Russia's main goals are.
2. You accuse Defence Talk members of ignoring what Putin said. Again, NOT TRUE. We have noted Putin’s lies and shown that Russia’s goal is NOT to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine; NOR can you fairly say that Putin trying to ‘bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians’. Member states of the United Nations have said that Russia’s actions violate the UN Charter; on 2 Mar 2022, 141 countries at the UN General Assembly voted to reprimand Russia for invading Ukraine — demanded that Moscow stop fighting & withdraw its military forces.
  • 35 states abstained — including China, India, Pakistan, UAE & Vietnam
  • 5 voted against the resolution.
3. Given that out of 193 member states, 141 votes were for the resolution, it shows how isolated Russia is in the UN. A resolution tabled before the General Assembly requires 2/3 support for it to be adopted. General Assembly resolutions are non-binding but they carry political significance in highlighting world opinion on issues being tabled.

4. I can say with a high degree of certainty that dozens of civilians were killed in Bucha while the city was under the control of the Russian army, Russian law enforcement, and Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) agents. Most of the bodies were found on Yablonska Street and more importantly, there’s no evidence that the civilians in Bucha whose bodies were found on the streets were killed as the result of military activity.
  • At least 30 bodies were found in the streets of Bucha. Twenty-one bodies were found on Yablonska Street alone. Five or six burned bodies (possibly women or children) were found on the nearby Staroyablonska Street. Three more were found in the courtyard next to a building on Ivano-Franka Street.
  • Across town, in the basement of a children’s camp building (which Ukrainian authorities believe Russian troops were using as a base), the bodies of six men who had been shot were found with their arms bound.
  • Two videos appear to show the murders themselves. One of the videos, which seems to have been recorded from a distance using a cell phone, shows Russian soldiers standing next to a kneeling person. After some time, the person falls to the ground. The second video was recorded from a drone (likely a Ukrainian one). It shows a person on a bicycle moving along Vokzalna Street in Bucha. A convoy of armored vehicles is stationed along the parallel (Vodoprovidna) and perpendicular (Yablonska) streets. At the moment when the cyclist turns onto Yablonska, smoke is emitted from one of the tanks. The person’s body and the bicycle were found in April, at the intersection of Vokzalna and Yablonska Streets.
5. What is being posted in this forum is not just from a Western media’s own narrative. There is a good balance of multiple perspectives and I have shown that it’s not just the media that has a view. The United Nations General Assembly voted on 7 April 2022, to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council over reports of "gross & systematic violations and abuses of Human Rights" by invading Russian troops in Ukraine. Votes in favour of suspension, 93.
 
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Borealis

New Member
1. Don’t lie. It’s not just the media who spoke out against an act of aggression by Russia against another country. If you listen to what Putin said on his Televised Address on Ukraine on 24 Feb 2022, it is far worse and even more unacceptable. Let’s quote a translated section of Putin’s speech that show him lying about compliance with the UN Charter and he is in fact, using force by waging war on the territory of another country. But that’s not all, in this war over the past 40 odd days, the Russian Army has committed war crimes.
I am not arguing that Russia didnt invade or justifying, I am not sure where you are getting that from...Nor am I going to argue against the UN charter points you made because it wouldnt change anything.

The one thing I will point out from the UN statement is that the war did not cause massive increases in food prices, energy, etc. Sanctions are the direct cause, and in general prices have gone up 20-25% well before the invasion.
 
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koxinga

Well-Known Member
I am not arguing that Russia didnt invade or justifying, I am not sure where you are getting that from...
Ah how about what you wrote previously saying that :

...while COMPELTELY ignoring what Lavrov, Putin, and the military has been saying from the onset.

4. The media has painted this as a War, an all out war.."
...
5. The Denazification campaign was largely painted as the CORE reason the Russians went it, when it clearly wasnt...
Putin made it very clear at the onset what he wants to do, in his own words, which is pushed in full, in the western press (transcript is also available at www.en.kremlin.ru, but it seems to be down). If he wants his message out in the West, it is out there. There is no "painting" here.

He said what he said and quote "To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine" end quote. - Putin, 24 Feb 2022.


This thread contains significant amount of data and views compiled by readers and moderators on both sides, from western twitter to russian telegrams. The aim was to cut through the fog of biases and unreliable news sources so that readers can see both sides.
 

Borealis

New Member
1. Based of intel and various expert opinion that 2 week time line was surmised, The Journo's didnt just pick a number out of a hat and every single one of them agree to use that same figure. As for the comment about the Russians well of course they wouldnt state how long they plan the operation to go for, Just a red light to the Ukranians "We almost got them, Hold a little more and we win brothers!"

2. There where several things put forward in the beginning and still today because quite simple Russia has gone in with no clear plan, By the time this war is over Russia will be out of letters to use to make up new plans. If the plan was to liberate LNR/DNR territories why push on Kiev? let alone all the other pushes. So trying to throw mud at the media when Russian command has no better understanding of the plan them selves.. Well do I really have to say anything?

3. And what BS is that. They are speculating and reporting what information comes in. So far Russia has given very little on what their goals are except to Denazify Ukraine and free LNR/DNR but between the actions and plans have been stumbling. They arent making up fake news, They are reporting on what they can see, Yes at times they report false news but they retract that for most of them in the west when they find out it was false.. So what BS?

4. Your numbers are way off considering Russia has commited 175,000 - 190,000 troops to it not counting I imagine the various RuAF units based within their borders running sorties into Ukraine while Ukraine for its ground and air mobile forces had circa 250,000

5. Ok so if that isnt the reason they went in then here is an idea tell us in clear words in your opinion what is the reason Russia launched an invasion of a sovereign nation?

6. And what actions did the West take in Georgia?
1. Again, it was based on a narrative the Media got from the state department. Obviously the Russians wouldnt state it, so you are confirming the same point I made

2. The plan was laid out when Putin gave his initial address on the onset of the invasion. Getting it accomplished is a whole different discussion. Again this is all on video in plain sight.

3. Are you under the impression that the US media is independent and objective? The major media outlets all step in unison when it comes to foreign policy and major story discussions. Where do you think they get their talking points from?

4. If thats the case then this is a first time I am hearing about it. Out of the 200k troops that were on the border before the invasion only 50k entered the Ukrainian territories. Rest were left for rotation. Are you saying they have all been committed at this point?

5. Pretty much all of below have supposedly been agreed to by Ukraine to either nullify or decrease as part of the peace talks. Reduce the military to a fraction of what it currently is, drop all nuclear weapons research, never being part of Nato or hosting military bases for Nato on their soil.
  • Failure to abide to the Minsk agreement for the last 8 years that their government/president signed
  • Largest standing military next to Russian borders being armed and supplied by Nato
  • Nuclear Weapons Ambitions
6. It was well known Georgia and Ukraine were at the top of the list for Nato membership. Its a red line for Russia. Pretty much it.

Borealis banned for trolling
 
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Borealis

New Member
Ah how about what you wrote previously saying that :



Putin made it very clear at the onset what he wants to do, in his own words, which is pushed in full, in the western press (transcript is also available at www.en.kremlin.ru, but it seems to be down). If he wants his message out in the West, it is out there.


This thread contains significant amount of data and views compiled by readers and moderators on both sides, from western twitter to russian telegrams. The aim was to cut through the fog of biases and unreliable news sources so that readers can see both sides.
I should have clarified. The Russian government doesnt see it as a war because it would mean its waging it against all of Ukraine, which in their eyes they are not. They have been trying to paint it as if they are only waging it against the Ukrainian military, and not all of Ukraine.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
I should have clarified. The Russian government doesnt see it as a war because it would mean its waging it against all of Ukraine, which in their eyes they are not. They have been trying to paint it as if they are only waging it against the Ukrainian military, and not all of Ukraine.
We have Putin's own words as well as Lavrov on record that this is their view, their lens of the world. I don't think anyone has any disagreement on that. One can acknowledge it but don't agree with it (example, Russia says it is a special military operation, but it is clearly not)
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I should have clarified. The Russian government doesnt see it as a war because it would mean its waging it against all of Ukraine, which in their eyes they are not. They have been trying to paint it as if they are only waging it against the Ukrainian military, and not all of Ukraine.
Tell that to the bodies in the streets.

What they try to paint and what they've done are not the same

oldsig
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
It is fair to critique and say Western media has certain bias but it is a huge, unsubstantiated leap by questioning everything there and the same applies to Russian media.

The Russians were supposed to be masters of information warfare and deception. But this "war" has plenty of self inflicted own goals on their end that does not require any Western "painting".

A good lie is a believable lie that sows an element of doubt. It is a bad lie when that doubt is sowed in reverse. Bucha is a classic example. It might have been better to say I don't know who kill those people than claim that Ukrainians set them up, then do damage control by saying we need an independent investigation.
 

surpreme

Member
Supporting a pro-Russian troll by adding misinformation
[Mod edit: Agreed that you have deliberately gone off topic. Text deleted.]

Sorry if this is off topic
 
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StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
The first 4 of a total of 20 Australian Bushmaster Armoured Vehicles for the Ukraine have been loaded onto a C-17 and flew out this morning.
It appears they have been painted with red crosses (and no auscam, all olive green). That would be a good task for them, and 20 would be a decent boost to their fleet in that area. It seems there is now a window to get vehicles into Ukraine.

Ukraine seems to have a significant need for these type of vehicles, lighter PMV. I hope more are provided by other countries.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
1. Again, it was based on a narrative the Media got from the state department. Obviously the Russians wouldnt state it, so you are confirming the same point I made
2. The plan was laid out when Putin gave his initial address on the onset of the invasion. Getting it accomplished is a whole different discussion. Again this is all on video in plain sight.
3. Are you under the impression that the US media is independent and objective? The major media outlets all step in unison when it comes to foreign policy and major story discussions. Where do you think they get their talking points from?
4. If thats the case then this is a first time I am hearing about it. Out of the 200k troops that were on the border before the invasion only 50k entered the Ukrainian territories. Rest were left for rotation. Are you saying they have all been committed at this point?
5. Pretty much all of below have supposedly been agreed to by Ukraine to either nullify or decrease as part of the peace talks. Reduce the military to a fraction of what it currently is, drop all nuclear weapons research, never being part of Nato or hosting military bases for Nato on their soil.
  • Failure to abide to the Minsk agreement for the last 8 years that their government/president signed
  • Largest standing military next to Russian borders being armed and supplied by Nato
  • Nuclear Weapons Ambitions
6. It was well known Georgia and Ukraine were at the top of the list for Nato membership. Its a red line for Russia. Pretty much it.
1. So the media quoted a government department so the media is at fault for making up the news? Huh now I'm confused by that logic
2. So the US and UK spun the narrative, Putin states he wanted to demiliterize and denazify Ukraine... So tell me how was Putin going to accomplish that with out occupying all of the Ukraine?
3. So the US media is controlledy the government and forced to debate towards a particular view? Going a little conspiracy theorist there mate
4. So Russia only deployed 25% of its forces on the border even though Intel my mid March estimated 75% of combat units already in the fight, let alone the fact that they have been rushing in units from all over Russia? Not likely they only have 50,000 in country.
5. The Minsk agreement that everyone failed to abide by but is some how Ukraine's sole fault? Uhuh. The bulk of their weapons still Soviet in nature and arms from NATO was fractional at best since 2014, only since the invasion has it shot up massively but sure nice try. And nuclear weapons program? What bloody program they have none and has only been since the invasion has their been any serious internal support to requiring them... Try harder
6. NATO is a defensive organisation which any one can apply to, hell Russia could apply not that they would be accepted. Not to mention the fact Russia didn't invade because of NATO but rather the two break away regions.

Apologies if this was read before edit, phone buggered up while posting lol.
 
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danonz

Member
It appears they have been painted with red crosses (and no auscam, all olive green). That would be a good task for them, and 20 would be a decent boost to their fleet in that area. It seems there is now a window to get vehicles into Ukraine.

Ukraine seems to have a significant need for these type of vehicles, lighter PMV. I hope more are provided by other countries.
Political commentators on talk back today ( I know I have no life..) mentioned that NZ's relative small arsenal of Javelins are near there best before date, they also mentioned that we have 100 Lav3's not really doing any thing.

That was after the defense minister went against cabinet (government body) and publicly confirmed he originally proposed to send the Javelin's but got pushed back by other members and the PM.

So there maybe more pressure on the NZ govt to send something more substantial, I wouldn't hold my breath for the LAV's though - as much as I would like to see them against BTR's and BMP's
 
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Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
4. If thats the case then this is a first time I am hearing about it. Out of the 200k troops that were on the border before the invasion only 50k entered the Ukrainian territories. Rest were left for rotation. Are you saying they have all been committed at this point?
Could you please supply the reference for your above statement, that only 50K troops entered Ukraine, I have had like a number of posters on this web sight a number of years in the military (20 years) and find incredulous that a military commander would even think of sending such a small number to invade another country with an established military the size of Ukraines. This would be a case of total incompetence.
  • Failure to abide to the Minsk agreement for the last 8 years that their government/president signed
  • Largest standing military next to Russian borders being armed and supplied by Nato
  • Nuclear Weapons Ambitions
6. It was well known Georgia and Ukraine were at the top of the list for Nato membership. Its a red line for Russia. Pretty much it.
Both sides are guilty of not abiding by the Minsk agreement.
The Ukrainian armed forces are mainly armed with ex Soviet era weapons and have only been equipped with modern western Defensive weapons since Russia began to threaten them, however the vast majority of their weapons still have their origin in the Soviet Union.
While they had the Largest standing military next to Russian borders, it still was only a fraction of the size of the Russian military and their equipment was mainly dated to prior to 1990.
What is your sorce regarding nuclear weapons, which Ukraine who had in significant numbers after the break up of the Soviet Union, but voluntarily gave up in 1992. They also scrapped their strategic bomber fleet (which would have been handy now) between 2002 and 2010. So what threat were they to Russia?
I should have clarified. The Russian government doesnt see it as a war because it would mean its waging it against all of Ukraine, which in their eyes they are not. They have been trying to paint it as if they are only waging it against the Ukrainian military, and not all of Ukraine.
This is just a case of the Russians trying to downplay what they are doing. This invasion is a war in every aspect. The only thing missing is the fact that the Ukrainians are not bombing or shelling Russian cities as the Russians are doing, indiscriminately to Ukrainian cities and towns.
Perhaps you could watch the below video of an interview of the Finnish ex PM paying particular attention to his explanation of what is meant by the truth in

Or read this article on a similar subject from again Finninland
Finnish Intelligence Officer Explains the Russian Mindset – Ricochet
There a fare number of extra holes in in what you have posted , but this will do for now.
"O" in regard to NATO, and Georgia and Ukraine. You have to apply to become a member and meet certain criteria before being admitted which is well known and while Ukraine had expressed a desire to join they did not meet the criteria at this time. The reason countries do want to join is FEAR OF RUSSIA
 
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Larso66

Member
My intention here is to list the identified Russian units involved in the Ukraine campaign. While my focus was on division and brigade size formations, much of the Russian army is deployed in battalion tactical groups. These are forces of 500 – 900 and comprise tanks, artillery/rockets, air defence, engineers and more but apparently only some 200 infantry? Depending on the site, there is some variety in tank numbers but maybe this reflects the parent unit’s speciality. They are therefore quite capably equipped for most tactical eventualities but not for sustaining casualties. Generalising, brigades have a BTG ready to deploy, with the whole unit to be rounded out with subsequent call-ups.

Forbes says on this “A Russian army brigade, which on paper possesses several battalions, in reality can generate just one BTG with around 36 squads of professional soldiers. A U.S. Army brigade, by contrast, can field 60 squads.”

Other sources for my intro -
https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf

“According to the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, as of August 2021 Russia had about 170 BTGs. Each BTG has approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers, of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles.” (Wiki)

What I found very interesting is the large proportion of these Russian BTGs deployed to Ukraine. Illia Ponomarenko, writing for kyivindependent.com says, “According to Ukraine’s figures, as of April 2, up to 75 Russian battalion tactical groups were still operational. Meanwhile, up to 34 battalion tactical groups were being restored in Russia and Belarus, while 16 others were destroyed in combat. At the beginning of the all-out invasion, Russia was believed to have deployed nearly 120-125 battalion tactical groups against Ukraine.”
https://kyivindependent.com/nationa...p-as-ukraine-defeats-russia-in-battle-of-kyiv 6/4/22

If Ponomarenko is correct and while being Ukrainian, he is very close to the action, I’m frankly stunned that over two-thirds of the Russian army has been committed! His figure of some 120 BTGs seems high for a total force of 170,000 – 190,000 but as we’ve learned the Russian logistics tail are not as extensive as expected. Sage International says “There is little information about the specific divisions and regiments that remain in Russia, and what force numbers still remain available for forward deployment. Any such analysis is complicated by the Russian practice of deploying forward Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs. When Ukrainian sources report that a Russian division is active on a given axis, it is almost always simply one or two BTGs from that division, and not the entire formation.” This article states the belief that the Russian army is currently 75% committed.

In any case, bear in mind that each unit I list, may be represented by only one or just several BTGs. Also, Russian units are described in various ways, Guard units are common but inconsistently named across sources. I’ve started with the higher formations and noted subordinate units if they’ve been specifically mentioned. I’ve indicated in brackets the context of the mention and locations if available. I can not say to what extent it is complete.

1st Guards Tank Army
* 4th Guards Tank Division (Trostyanets, Lebedyn, Shadurka, Bobryk, and Chupakhivka)
  • 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division (Sribne, Chernihiv, and Verkhnia Syrovatka​



8th Guards (?) Combined Army - commander killed.
  • 20th Motorised Division​
  • 150th Motor Rifle Division - commander killed​

29th Combined Army Arms – commander killed

35th Combined Army Arms – (‘withdrawing towards Belarus’ : Janes 29th March )

36th Combined Arms Army

41st Combined Arms Army (Chernihiv) – Deputy commander killed (also commanded 7th Airborne)

* 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division – Commander killed
  • - 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment - commander killed
  • 90th Guards Tank Division (Chernihiv)​
  • 74th Guards Motor Rifle Bde (platoon of POWs in the news)​

49th Combined Army Commander killed

76th Airborne Division – 7th Apr 60 paratroopers mutiny? (Kyiv Oblast)
- 234th Guards Air Assault Regiment - commander killed

98th Guards Airborne Division (Kyiv Oblast)
- 331st Guards Parachute Assault Regiment - commander killed

106th Airborne Division - withdrew to Belarus end of March to be redeployed Valuyki in Eastern war theatre (Wiki)

11th Guards Air Assault Bde – Commander killed

12th Engineer Brigade (of 22nd Army Corps?) - commander killed

37th Ind (or separate) Guards Motor Rifle Bde - commander run over, unit mutiny?

45th Guards Special Purpose (Spetsnaz) Airborne Brigade – Hostomel

60th C3 Bde (Command, control, Communications)

61st Separate Marine Brigade – commander killed (Kharkiv region)

64th Motor Rifle Bde – Irpin, Bucha

136th Motorised Bde (of 58th Combined Arms Army) – Mariupol

200th Arctic? Motorised Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps) - commander killed (Kharkiv)

810th Guards Separate Order of Zhukov Brigade in the Russian Marines.- commander killed

Reference for KIA commanders -
How the Russian officer elite is being decimated in Ukraine – 18 generals and commanders who were killed in action

That Sage International article noted above has a list of committed Russian forces, most of the Russian army. I still thought I’d post my research as it has additional information.
 

Larso66

Member
The first 4 of a total of 20 Australian Bushmaster Armoured Vehicles for the Ukraine have been loaded onto a C-17 and flew out this morning.
Australian Defender writes that two were standard vehicles and one ambulance. Nice that we've painted them up in Ukrainian colours for them!
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Guys I haven't had time to update this or participate in the conversation. A really brief update, since everyone is distracted with discussions of the aid and politics. Russia has shifted efforts to the offensive in the east, Russian troops have broken through Ukrainian lines at Kamenka. It remains to be seen whether this is the beginning of a major push or another marginal gain followed by heavy fighting. The road to the Lisichansk was also opened recently by rebel forces who broke through Ukrainian positions near there. I will try to make an update tomorrow. If not, then Saturday for sure.

I don't trust this list. Mordvichev was sighted together with Kadyrov near Mariupol', some time after news of him being killed were circulated. I suspect some Russian commanders were killed, but which remains to be seen.
 

Twain

Active Member
I'm going put this in the open if anyone here remember the 1962 Cuba missile crisis where the U.S. put this on the table THERE WILL NOT BE ANY MISSILES NEAR THE U.S. and prepared to invade Cuba and threaten nuclear war. Now let go into the future Russia is in same position told the U.S. it did not want NATO at it borders. Both countries are nuclear powers now Putin is making the threat funny how thing changes when you have a someone doing what you did in the past. Disagreed with Russian actual invading Ukraine but could have make it appear that were going to invade and used media to hype it up like the U.S. did in the 1960's The one thing I will say the U.S. Military know how used the media. Sorry if this is off topic

As has been discussed already in this thread, Russia already has nato members on it's border, hell Latvia is actually closer to Moscow than Ukraine. This isn't and never was about Nato. Ukraine wasn't getting admitted into NATO, full stop. This whole "russia went to war to prevent nato expansion" has as much credibility as the story that Ukrainians are a bunch of Nazis and they must be wiped out. In other words None

I've seen it said several times over the years, Putin is a brilliant tactician but at best a mediocre strategist. The result of this war in Ukraine is:

His army is decimated
Finland is going to apply to join NATO and sweden probably will, so now in this war to prevent nato expansion has resulted in at least one if not two new members of nato on his borders.
He may be locked in a long term war that they can't afford and probably can't win.
Their economy is being devastated.
NATO defence spending is going up significantly

Even if Putin conquers all of Ukraine, he has already lost.
 

Larso66

Member
"I don't trust this list. Mordvichev was sighted together with Kadyrov near Mariupol', some time after news of him being killed were circulated. I suspect some Russian commanders were killed, but which remains to be seen."

Yes, I should have specified my use of it was more about identifying units deployed. It stretches belief that so many army and brigade commanders would actually be casualties.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This Guy update in my opinion quite neutral as he try to cross and double check information on validities of information available around.


Compared with Military Land that more or less put Ukranian sources first then Russian ones. Still both of them shown similar picture. Russian main aim in this war.

For me since the beginning of this invasion there's always two constant goal that Russia has put. Donbas and Security of Crimea. You have to see from 2014 how Crimea and Donbas always become minimal threshold obsession from Russia.

How to secure Crimea and Donbas is already clear from beginning of the war with what they are doing in East and South. Securing and destroying Ukranian army in Donbas. Securing Crimea access on existing Dnieper water line (which closed by Ukranian after 2014 Crimea annexation).

This two goals depends on how far Russia can pacified Ukraine Donbas force. This's the best trained Army unit in Ukranian Army. Pacified that, means secured Donbas and Sea of Azov coasts (thus including Crimean security).

Perhaps after that Putin can claim his victory and Russian and Separatist forces will dig in. Off all reports on Russian losses, few in Western mainstream media talk on how extensive the Ukranian losses, except some more independent media. This is after all from second week of the war already turn in to war of Attrition.

Ukraine practically lost all their Military Industrial Complex and makes what ever they have lost practically irreplaceable, even with continue West support. The capabilities to rebuild their military level. Well unless US want to continue pour billions over billions to bankroll them.
 
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