North Korean Military.

[weegee]

So I guess what I need is a 21st C Larry Bond, someone with enough publicly-available insight to knowledgeably state that -- given the available data vis-a-vis balance of forces -- the North Koreans have a reasonable chance of defending themselves without resorting to their nuclear deterrent (and if anyone outside of Korea is assuming that Koreans wouldn't risk vaporizing Seoul in exchange for slaughtering anyone who attacked them, I humbly remind you of post WW2 RoK performance history).

I'm being serious here (as much as an informed layman can be, at any rate). North Korea has a huge (on paper) military force, but it seems to be based on a 50's era mentality that was crushed a couple of years after it was fielded, and not appreciably improved afterwards.

If we proceed from a first-principle of self-preservation, and then work forward to self-aggrandizement, then there seems to be a limit to how much brinksmanship NK leadership can leverage before it becomes (blatantly) self-defeating. Hence my wonderment: WTF are they thinking? How far do they think they can bluff? At what point to they realize that pretending to be in the Major Leagues is NOT the same thing as being in the Major Leagues?

My thoughts exactly! but maybe North Korea are like all those horrible singers that go on American or Australian Idol and the like, you see them audition and say how can you honestly think that you can sing!!!!! But i suppose if you have someone in your ear saying your the greatest and best for long enough you will eventually start believing it? Maybe they honestly believe they are a super power (forgetting the ridiculous poverty in the country) it is just the rest of the world has not noticed yet haha

 

[STURM]

Hence my wonderment: WTF are they thinking? How far do they think they can bluff? At what point to they realize that pretending to be in the Major Leagues is NOT the same thing as being in the Major Leagues?

They will do what they need to do, for as long as they need to, as long as they achieve their main aim with is regime survival. The North Koreans discovered a long time ago that having nukes or having people suspect you have nukes makes a major difference in how others conduct their dealings with you. After watching what happen to Saddam and Gadaffi, the North Korean leadership is more convinced than ever that having nukes or even a nuke device, will not result in American and South Korean troops entering Pyonyang. And as long as China - which does not want to see a united Korea which is an ally of Uncle Sam on its border - continues to be North Korea's main benefactor or supporter, the North Koreans will get away with what they're are doing. Bear in mind that how the rest of the world views things differs greatly with how the North Koreans view things.

Maybe they honestly believe they are a super power (forgetting the ridiculous poverty in the country)

Highly doubt it. Despite their extremely bizarre behaviour and all the bombastic state propaganda, IMO the North Korean leadership is not detached from reality and know perfectly well what's going on around them. Bear in mine that they have been successfully playing off China, Uncle Sam, Russia, Japan, etc, for decades. Nobody dares talk about regime change and the need for democracy in North Korea as they do over the Middle East. Logically, the 'free world' should have invaded North Korea rather than Iraq and should be threatening North Korea and not Iran with air strikes, as North Korea offers a more serious threat - the North Koreans have actually detonated a nuclear device......

 

[Netsk]

I'm being serious here (as much as an informed layman can be, at any rate). North Korea has a huge (on paper) military force.

But so did Iraq. The Iraq military was also more modern than N-Korean.

 

[Feanor]

The price tag of building a democratic North Korea would be a little bigger then that of a democratic Iraq.

 

[Netsk]

The price tag of building a democratic North Korea would be a little bigger then that of a democratic Iraq.

Well I would say it's comparable to the unification of Germany. Like West Germany, South Korea is a developed industrial country with high standard of living.

Iraq is alone and does not have resources to rebuild itself and thus relies completely on help by the international community.

Nevertheless, yes the price tag is high of course.

 

[swerve]

Not at all comparable. West Germany had almost four times the population of East Germany, & the difference in economic level, education, & exposure to the outside world was much less. North Korea has half the population of the south, & is so much poorer that the difference in living standards is clearly visible in the height difference.

Estimates of East German incomes based on tracking back from post-unification German statistics put them at 47% of the West German level in 1989, but that's probably a slight underestimate, since it didn't take account of the price differences that still existed in the base figures. North Korean income levels are probably somewhere around 10% of South Korean levels, adjusted for price differences.

Most East Germans could & did watch West German television. North Korean TVs are pre-tuned to N. Korea's official channels. East German was easy to visit (I did so, for example) & foreigners could & did wander around freely. W. Germans with relatives in the East could & did visit them freely. E. Germans could visit other E. European countries fairly easily - & millions of them did. N. Koreans can't go anywhere, & the few foreigners who visit are escorted at all times. After retirement, E. Germans could move pretty freely between E & West - the E. German border controls were to stop emigration of workers. Some retired to W. Germany, & went back to visit their children & grandchildren.

E. Germans could buy foreign books & newspapers (though supplies were limited). Never allowed in N. Korea. E. & W. Germany had been separated for 44 years, & travel had been effectively blocked by the Berlin Wall for only 28 years. N. & S. Korea have been thoroughly separated for 68 years.

East Germans had a very good idea of the differences between how they lived & the West German standard of living. They were as well-fed, lived as long, their babies were slightly less likely to die (yes, really), had greater economic security, but had fewer consumer goods & less freedom. And they knew it. Most N. Koreans probably have only a vague idea of what life is really like in the South. I expect that they don't know that they're several cm shorter, on average, die younger, etc.

You see the differences? The integration of Germany was trivially easy compared to the difficulties of integrating Korea. Comparing them only demonstrates what an immense task it would be to unify Korea.

 

[STURM]

Iraq is alone and does not have resources to rebuild itself and thus relies completely on help by the international community.

Iraq's state infrastructure, which was badly damaged by the 8 year war with Iran, the UN sanctions and the 2003 invasion, is in a much better state now and the country's oil exports are picking up.

 

[Feanor]

Well I would say it's comparable to the unification of Germany. Like West Germany, South Korea is a developed industrial country with high standard of living.

Iraq is alone and does not have resources to rebuild itself and thus relies completely on help by the international community.

Nevertheless, yes the price tag is high of course.

Germany was one of the most (if not the most) prosperous state socialist countries. North Korea, as outlined above is the poorest. But I think the biggest issue is the difference in mentality, modes of thought, etc. Even a decade after unification West and East Germans still didn't get along quite as well as one would expect. The psychological difference between North and South is gigantic, and if reunification did occur they couldn't just open the borders overnight. They'd have to do it very gradually, and the result would be that the South would remain more prosperous for a long time, which would contribute to dislike and distrust among ordinary northerners.

You should see the older generation in Russia, the ones who grew up during the Cold War. They still see America and NATO as enemy number one, with a fundamental distrust that's ingrained so deeply that facts and logic pale in comparison. And this is the USSR, a much less totalitarian country then North Korea.

 

[swerve]

Yes, everyone (including former Ossies) agree that although it does not apply to all individuals, there is still a collective difference in attitudes and opinions between East & West Germans - and this persists after over seven years of the unified country being led by an East German.

The difference in mentality between N & S Korea is bound to be vastly greater.

One thing I think I didn't make clear enough was how great the difference in cost would be. West Germany could afford to bring the infrastructure in the east up to more or less the level of the west in about ten years. It soaked up some of the workers laid off by uncompetitive eastern industry, & made the east more attractive to outside investors. A significant proportion of E. German industry turned out to be competitive, once it had shed the workers who were employed for social reasons, & modernised working practices.

The gap between N & S Korea is so vast that I find it hard to imagine much, if any, N Korean manufacturing industry surviving unification. With the millions scraping to stay alive in the countryside, the million plus in the armed forces, & the bloated bureaucracy monitoring hairstyles & the like, I think at least half of N Korean workers would become dependent on handouts if the two states united. As for bringing the northern infrastructure up to southern levels in a decade or so, well, dream on, Netsk. As well as the population share differences previously mention, & the fact that the disparity is far greater than between the Germanies, East Germany was less than half the size of the west, while North Korea is bigger than the south.

Feanor is right. Unification couldn't be complete & immediate. Border controls would have to be kept for years, & the south would have to prop up the existing N. Korean economy (what there is of it) to support the population, while assisting it to get rich enough to make full unification feasible.

 

[Netsk]

I stand corrected. Let's just hope then that opening of the North Korean market for foreign investment this year will with time (decades) start a softer transition of things.

 

[kato]

A significant proportion of E. German industry turned out to be competitive, once it had shed the workers who were employed for social reasons, & modernised working practices.

Don't forget the fully intentional destruction of virtually all East German industry that might have been able to compete with West Germany in 1991 (*) - and the fact that East Germany lost one-fifth of its population after 1990 and since then remains a demographical catastrophe filled with pensioners and unemployed young men.

In fact the treatment of the other's industry is the one thing that South Korea would have to definitely not copy from Germany. That and the immediate full union that was only pulled off that rapidly to save Kohl's hide from his previously-assured 1991 removal from power.


(*) - most far-reaching assassination the RAF ever pulled off.

 

[King Wally]

The price tag of building a democratic North Korea would be a little bigger then that of a democratic Iraq.

There is also little economic return on investment compared to installing a friendly oil supplying Iraq. I don't remember the exact percentages but I do know Iraq produced a major amount of the world oil. And if you cast your mind way back to the first gulf war when Sadam had Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in their sights you were litterally talking about 50% of the world oil supply being threatened.

 

[Waylander]

IMO there was no moral alternative to full and swift reunification of both Germanys. And the economic difficulties which may have been fueled by the fast reunification were a price worth paying for what is as much a success story of an autocratic regime getting swept away by a bloodless revolution one can get.

And IMO the difference in thought and behauviour between east and west are not worse than what one experiences between north and south.

Ask someone from Lower Saxony or Schleswig-Holstein which people feel closer to them, Bavarians or Mecklenburg-West Pomeranians...

 

[Lcf]

IMO there was no moral alternative to full and swift reunification of both Germanys. And the economic difficulties which may have been fueled by the fast reunification were a price worth paying for what is as much a success story of an autocratic regime getting swept away by a bloodless revolution one can get.

And IMO the difference in thought and behauviour between east and west are not worse than what one experiences between north and south.

Ask someone from Lower Saxony or Schleswig-Holstein which people feel closer to them, Bavarians or Mecklenburg-West Pomeranians...

It's hardly comparable, Germany and Korea. As someone here mentioned, people in E. Germany were able to travel abroad, had TV, radio... all in all they knew what was going on outside their country. On the other hand, you could say people in NK live in a virtual reality.

Few years ago a Croatian journalist spent some time there, made a documentary movie in which he claims most of them don't even know the USSR is gone, or that China practically became a capitalist country etc. They see the world in different colors, what's white for everyone else it's black for them. They simply don't know better. Ask them: what's freedom, they'll respond: a world without USA.

In any case, my opinion is, there won't be any war because I don't see how it could be done without China interfering and even if they don't the price would still be very high, especially high since they're not too rich on natural resources... Same goes for NK, an attack on South would probably end in defeat for Pyongyang.

I think we can agree that there wouldn't be any reunification of East and West Germany if the USSR, East Germany's sponsor, hadn't collapsed. Something similar applies here. All in all China and US are the key players.

 

[Waylander]

I know the difference. In East German...

I expect the Chinese are really frightened of the waves of refugees going to storm their border if the NK regime implodes.

IMO they wouldn't have much problems with a united Korea. They have a fairly good relationship and important economic ties with the south. The crux is how to make sure the US doesn't stay on the peninsula once NK is gone...

 

[Eeshaan]

North Korea declares 1953 armistice invalid - CNN.com

The downward spiral continues. Now they have declared the armistice invalid. I seriously suspect the mental stability of the Kim family.

 

[King Wally]

North Korea declares 1953 armistice invalid - CNN.com

The downward spiral continues. Now they have declared the armistice invalid. I seriously suspect the mental stability of the Kim family.

Theres no doubt each generation gets a little more deluded and seperated from reality. Its like the kids of rock stars that have no grip on reality.

Watch this space I guess.

 

[Blackshoe]

North Korea declares 1953 armistice invalid - CNN.com

The downward spiral continues. Now they have declared the armistice invalid. I seriously suspect the mental stability of the Kim family.

To be fair, this is the sixth time or so they've declared the armistice invalid (or null and void). The first was in 2009. Since then, they've sank a RoKN patrol craft and shelled a South Korean island. Clearly, the armistice isn't something they care too much about. The big question is how does the RoK respond (eg, do they relax the ROE from armistice rules to war ROE)?

However, the big news development from the recent events is that the NorKs have cut the hotline between Pyongyang and Seoul.

I do believe this latest round of tension will end with an exchange of lead, unfortunately.

 

[Netsk]

I on the other hand believe this is mostly just inner politics. North Korea would never attack first (excluding minor provocations), because they know they can only loose that battle, and most of all the privileged life of the top officials.

 

[gazzzwp]

I on the other hand believe this is mostly just inner politics. North Korea would never attack first (excluding minor provocations), because they know they can only loose that battle, and most of all the privileged life of the top officials.

I wonder how much attention Iran would pay in such a conflict and could it possibly spur them on to start something in the belief that the US Forces are pre-occupied elsewhere. Division of resources and all.

There are strong concerns as we know that Iran could be shipping Uranium to N Korea via China so there could well be a genuine relationship between the two nations.

Could there be a mutual pact between them perhaps such that it one of the two become engaged with the US the other will spark off to tie forces up at the other end?

It concerns me that there are two reasonably well armed nations here both with massive anger towards the US and both showing little respect for what is still the most powerful nation on the planet.