Indonesia: 'green water navy'

[ASSAIL]

That's the problem for TNI, the first term of this administration practically halt the momentum for TNI modernisation. Can't be help due to Political choice we have incompetence Defense Minister that wasting time on poorly prepared planning, resulted on back forth on the planning between ministries and Bapenas.

Thus this term practically MinDef has to settle two terms work load. I just hope this's going to be more straight forward projects planning. Thus it already set on multiyears fixed projects, which can't be hold by whoever come to power on next administration.



I put it few months ago on Indonesian Air Force thread. Base on the video capture that being put by Kris FB (link provided in that thread), seems present term MinDef going to divide the Foreign Financing thus International Procurement budget on roughly 40:40:20 as I've predicted.

That's the move in right direction, as threat scenario shown much modernisation needed in AF and Navy. Thus it's left how the plan implementation need to put in motion soon. This time around it's facing problematic economics condition (Domestic and Global) due to COVID. There's enough voices from Economist that wants to cut that plan USD 21 Bio foreign financing for Defense. There're those that still doesn't see the need of defense modernisation. I put modernisation not build up, as with that kind of budget only replacement modernisation and not build up that can be done.

I'm not Defense professional, but I probably come from some in my Industry that see Geopolitical changes will be much related to our own economics stability. Like it or not, Geopolitical changes in this region force Nations to modernize their Defense to ensure stability on International interaction. This why I spend some of my time in this forum, try to learn Defense trend and development.

Sometimes I see some of my class mates/seniors in my Allmamater or my colleagues in Financial Industry, didn't really see the need of strong Defense related with maintaining Indonesia credentials in Geopolitical stability. Many of them more see the need for Economics and Industrial development in the expense on Defense. They just don't see it's interact and interchangeable.

Perhaps their perspective clouded with the results of their experience with Military during Soeharto era. Making them not trusting Military establishment. It's not unreasonable, but for me it doesn't justified on halting TNI modernisation and organisational development.

The Indonesian politicians are not the only ones who prioritise popular domestic policies and trade with China above defence, that happens in many democracies.
There has been a shift though. The CCP’s aggressive actions towards neighbours, their ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy and their disregard of international treaties on trade and boundaries has forced a change, particularly within the Indo Pacific region.
There are some who continue to pander to China hoping the benefits of trade reciprocity outweigh the strategic deterioration but this is a false hope and only held by those who ignore history.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Nothing wrong with FFBNW, so long as they install the weapons soon.

Sorry, after 6 years of disappointments, i have become very pessimistic about Indonesia's defence equipment procurement projects. I just have the image in my mind of 30FFM-frigates patrolling the North Natuna Sea armed with only machine guns and a recycled manually operated 40 mm on the deck, ten years after delivery.

I'm more or less trying to be realistic. As I understand it, it's an open secret that Thales has a very strong lobbying power here considering how many of their products are in use across the Tri-service over the past 10 years. And considering the Navy seems to standardizing onto the Exocet, I would not be surprised if the Navy would take the delays just to use Thales subsystems.

Also, CMIIW but wouldn't the delay be minimal if the TNI-AL buys the weapons and electronics packages from MBDA and Thales since their CMS, radar, and ECM systems have already been used in conjunction on other vessels? I assumed the 30FFM being a module based design allows for an open architecture approach when it comes to implementing custom orders?

Yes, big chance they request a package similar to the SIGMA-class vessels. Actually starting from the '80s TNI-AL uses the MM38/MM40 Exocets and Hollandse Signaalapparaten/Thales Nederlands systems, it is actually the standard on most patrolboats, corvettes and frigates.

 

[OPSSG]

I assume that the TNI-AL would want to keep a consistent stock of AShM's by standardizing with the Exocet?

MHI would have no problem with this type of integration, perfectly viable without delays on the 30FFM, if specified by TNI AL.

Keeping in mind that Like Airbus and LM, Thales (and to a extent MBDA) has a strong lobby here in Indonesia, so I would expect the two French firms would like a slice of the defense budget pie regardless who wins the tender.

Agreed; and Thales has a big presence in both Indonesia and Singapore.

Going back to what I posted months ago, I am quite excited to see what MHI has to offer, and whether or not they would bring in European firms as a partner.

I think we as a forum tend to underrate the Japanese effort at holistic integration of the Mitsubishi Electric OPY-2 multifuction radar, sensor, shooter with the CMS to give this lean manned 30FFM frigate its tremendous capability that only has a crew of 90.

MHI will do what the TNI AL request in their specification — the issue is whether it will lead to a less capable 30FFM frigate or it will meet Indonesian requirements for joint war fighting. Systems of systems integration of war fighting capability on the frigate and off-board unmanned systems is not easy.

To my understanding, a 30FFM hull with European subsystems would be the strongest contender in terms of financing, standardization, and future growth/upgrades.

Doable with delays but that’s like ordering a ham and cheese sandwich and asking to have both ham and cheese removed and replaced by a fish cake and lettuce on toasted bread; from my view.

We will have to see how this 30FFM news develops.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Yes we just have to see how this 30FFM case and all other defence equipment procurements develop.

Here we have a nice video recently uploaded by KOARMAR 1.

Jalesveva Jayamahe!

 

[ChestnutTree]

I think we as a forum tend to underrate the Japanese effort at holistic integration of the Mitsubishi Electric OPY-2 multifuction radar, sensor, shooter with the CMS to give this lean manned 30FFM frigate its tremendous capability that only has a crew of 90.

I won't be surprised if they went with MHI's preferred electronics package, yet at the same time I don't doubt that it would still include MBDA's weapons package. All in all it would be interesting to see what the final product would look like, and how many would come into service. We still have yet to hear what would come from Finncantierri in regards to their FREMM offering, so we have that to look forward too as well.

 

[Ananda]

I'm also intrigued on propulsion modules. If they choose FREMM or 30 FFM design, are they will going to choose on standard CODAG or change to CODAD. After their experience in choosingGas Turbine on Mandau FMB and Fatahilah Corvettes in the 80's, TNI-AL seems so far choose not to replicate that move again.

I don't know it's more related to fuel economics (as some of previous brass talk in media) or related to their support infrastructure on maintaining them. If we look on the 4 Frigate design that according to Jane's make final cut, 2 are CODAD (Damen SIGMA derivative and Iver Base) and 2 are CODAG (30 FFM and FREMM). This can determine how far TNI-AL want to Invest on their Maintenance and Support infrastructure.

In theory MHI already put in their video (I also link it in this thread) that the Propulsion is separate modules that can be tailor on demand (just as Electronics and Sensors module and Weapons module). However those changes can also related to some delays in the manufacturing process as current 30FFM geared toward JMSDF specs.

If 30FFM being choose, then using close to JMSDF specs will smooth faster assembly line and logistics movement toward manufacturing on different yards (as Japan offer half of the order will be build in Indonesian yard).

It also can be related to Financial Packages. Building as close to JMSDF specs can mean the cost can be leverage somewhat to JMSDF package. Just like why US prefer to offer selling Defense Assets that also still in the manufacturing process with US own package lines. All this to reduce the costs for foreign buyers.

I do sense that whoever of that 4 can provide the best package of Financing and Domestic work share will have the best chances. One thing that I sense worries Euro suppliers seems to what kind of Japan can offer as incentives on top the packages they're offering. They are after all one of the biggest Investor in Indonesia and main trading Partners.

 

[ngatimozart]

@Ananda I believe that Japan and Indonesia signed an arms transfer agreement last Tuesday, allowing for the transfer of Japanese weapons systems etc., to Indonesia. I would presume that this would include the sale of the 30FFM if that goes ahead.

Japan, Indonesia sign arms transfer pact amid China concerns

Japan and Indonesia signed a pact on Tuesday allowing the transfer of Japanese defense equipment and technology to Jakarta as the two countries strengthen their military ties in the face of China's increasingly assertive activity in the region.

www.defensenews.com

An earlier Japan Times story about the possible 30FFM export to Indonesia. Note the mention of joint ship development.

Article expired

News on Japan, Business News, Opinion, Sports, Entertainment and More

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[Arji]

I would presume that this would include the sale of the 30FFM if that goes ahead.

I don't recall any plans to buy other weapons nor equipments from Japan, beside the 30FFM.

So, does that agreement means: IF the deal with the 30FFM went through, Japan's government allow the transfer of technology to take place, right?

 

[OPSSG]

@Ananda, the choice of CODAD or CODAG propulsion is a question of the min. speed required of a TNI AL task group in operations — both the Italian and Japanese task groups have the ability move fast for surface warfare and have fleet tankers, therefore CODAG is required. Both MHI and Fincantieri, can certainly have the in-house expertise to make the needed changes specified by the TNI AL.

 

[ngatimozart]

I don't recall any plans to buy other weapons nor equipments from Japan, beside the 30FFM.

So, does that agreement means: IF the deal with the 30FFM went through, Japan's government allow the transfer of technology to take place, right?

Yes it does. It says so in the Japan Times article because it has to do with their law and offensive weapons. You may find that the Japanese have equipment that you will be able to access and funds to help you acquire it.

 

[OPSSG]

So, does that agreement means: IF the deal with the 30FFM went through, Japan's government allow the transfer of technology to take place, right?

I think what is offered is for 4 30FFM vessels to be built in Japan; and 4 subsequent to be built in Indonesia — which means some level of technology transfer. The level of technology to be inserted in this class of ship is fantastic; and by far the most modern and versatile for its size.

Yes it does. It says so in the Japan Times article because it has to do with their law and offensive weapons. You may find that the Japanese have equipment that you will be able to access and funds to help you acquire it.

Agreed. The JMSDF has the most advanced sea based mine laying and mine clearing technology and fleet in Asia. No one else comes close.

 

[Ananda]

believe that Japan and Indonesia signed an arms transfer agreement last Tuesday, allowing for the transfer of Japanese weapons systems etc., to Indonesia. I would presume that this would include the sale of the 30FFM if that goes ahead

@ngatimozart I believe Japan law on transfer of Armed Technology need to be signed first between parties precursor from any Armament transaction with involved Japanese lethal technology.

The Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology

www.mofa.go.jp

Thus before any Defense Transfer Tech can be done as part of join production of 30FFM based Frigates, this agreement need to be signed as precursor. From your post, I know you're already aware on this. Just to put it for additional explanation for other readers that perhaps not too aware on Japanese law on defense article transfer.

30 FFM and the related weapon system on board is the first Japan offer on their lethal technology to Indonesia that I know off. Before the offer from Japan still can be considered non lethal ones like Fisheries patrol ships or US-2 Shin Maywa Amphibious Planes (which Indonesia choose to go with CL-415).

As you have put in your post to Arji, with this agreement it is open now for Japan Defense suppliers to offer their systems and weapons toward Indonesian Defense Market. In theory, whatever happens to 30 FFM deals, Japan in future can also enter the Indonesian market with co-op on Electronics/sensors and other offensive/Lethal technology system. Thus they can offer 30FFM with JMSDF specs in theory should it match with TNI-AL needs and budget.

the choice of CODAD or CODAG propulsion is a question of the min. speed required of a TNI AL task group in operations — both the Italian and Japanese task groups have the ability move fast for surface warfare and have fleet tankers, therefore CODAG is required.

@OPSSG correct me if I'm wrong, however if speed is the consideration on CODAD vs CODAG, isn't that the Danes with their CODAD Frigates can work well with NATO convoys including the CODAG Frigates from other members ?

I still see the preference of CODAD Propulsion in TNI-AL is more related to their support infrastructure logistics or even Fuel Economics. The Damen SIGMA Corvettes and PKR also ex Nahkoda Ragam (now Bung Tomo) Corvettes (all are TNI-AL latest acquisition) seems able to work with NATO Standard convoys (during their UN works in Lebanon waters or Red Sea) well enough. From that I presume the difference of modern CODAD with CODAG is already relative closing in enough.

Off course both Fincantieri and MHI can adapt the changing on Propulsion modules from CODAG to CODAD. It will be no problem for them. For me it's interesting just to see whether TNI-AL preference has change or not.

 

[OPSSG]

@Ananda, not all NATO convoys operate at the same speed. The Ivar Huitfeldt Class frigates built by Odense Steel Shipyard are capable ships but they are a less modern design compared to the Italian or Japanese offerings to TNI AL. IMO, very often a convoy will slow down to match the speed of the slowest ship — the operating speed of a task group is driven by the Sea Combatant Commander’s intent, when navies perform missions in a coalition task group. To illustrate my point by design choice, the Formidable class, with its CODAD Propulsion, at 27 knots, is too slow to keep up with the Italians or Japanese Navies, if they travel at a maximum speed of over 30 knots.

Italy has a very capable navy for its budget and size but the JMSDF’s size and capability far exceed that of the Italians. The Japanese Navy's Escort Flotilla 1 to 4 each of which are more powerful than the Danish navy; and are in total Asia’s 2nd most capable navy.

If the TNI AL decide to replace a turbine with a Diesel engine (in the same space), the frigate will loose speed — it’s not just a simple matter of dropping in a power pack into the same space — the design authority may need to go back to tank testing of the model for weight and balance. This all depends on specifications demanded by TNI AL, which information I am not privy to or want to further speculate.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Before the offer from Japan still can be considered non lethal ones like Fisheries patrol ships or US-2 Shin Maywa Amphibious Planes (which Indonesia choose to go with CL-415).

As you have put in your post to Arji, with this agreement it is open now for Japan Defense suppliers to offer their systems and weapons toward Indonesian Defense Market. In theory, whatever happens to 30 FFM deals, Japan in future can also enter the Indonesian market with co-op on Electronics/sensors and other offensive/Lethal technology system. Thus they can offer 30FFM with JMSDF specs in theory should it match with TNI-AL needs and budget.

Wait....since when does Indonesia have the Canadair CL-415?
I know Viking Air bought the blueprints and Type Certificate from Bombardier, and that Viking Air plan to restart the production after Bombardier closed down the production line in October 2015, but i can not remember that Indonesia have signed a contract with Viking Air for the delivery of new built CL-415s.

 

[Ananda]

know Viking Air bought the blueprints and Type Certificate from Bombardier, and that Viking Air plan to restart the production after Bombardier closed down the production line in October 2015, but i can not remember that Indonesia have signed a contract with Viking Air for the delivery of new built CL-415s.

Viking pushes back ‘formal launch’ of CL-515 water bomber

Canadian airframer Viking Air confirms it has delayed the launch of its CL-515 First Responder aerial firefighter aircraft, citing the Covid-19 pandemic.

www.flightglobal.com

Indonesian MinDef did sign contract for CL-515 (that's what Viking call it after they acquired the license rights from Bombardier). They sign it during Paris Air Show in 2019. According to that article despite Covid, Viking still try to get TNI-AU order in schedulle by 2024.

Indonesia to receive world’s first CL-515 in seven aircraft deal with Longview - Wings Magazine

Longview Aviation Capital, and its subsidiary Viking Air of North Saanich, BC, reached a deal to provide the Republic of Indonesia’s Ministry of Defense

www.wingsmagazine.com

This is part of few procurement project from last term MinDef that seems got into contractual stage. In their selection include Japan US-2 and Russian BE-200. Those two seems before got upper hand as BE-200 has been leased before by Indonesian authority for Fire Fighthing in Sumatra, while Indonesian VP Jusuf Kalla shown support in Media for US-2 as part of Indonesia-Japan co-op.

However beside that news From Viking that they are delaying formal launch of CL-515 due to Covid and 2019 information of Indonesia contract for 6 newly build CL-515 and one refurbished CL-415EAF, no additional info on the progress of this project. Even the local online forums that sometimes got leaked on TNI projects, bit silence on this. There are rumour that the single CL-415EAF (enhance air fighting version) can come much sooner than CL-515 as it's a refurbished airframe. Rumour state Indonesia want it ready soon in anticipation of potential forest fire during next dry season. However it's just rumour that I heard during informal conversation (with a bureaucrat). Something that I can not verified yet.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1378413489413185542

I broke my own promisse not to link this guy tweeter again. However I put it because it is funny and shown how nervous Euro lobby including himself with Indonesian-Japan agreement.

He said don't underestimate Euro lobby, well thus he even got slightest idea how powerfull Japan Lobby throughout the wholle Indonesian Bureaucracy ? He's seems only talking to lobby in MinDef, thus he even don't get the idea that on this stage the decision from Bapanes or Ministry of Finance can over ruled MinDef.

There's no decision yet on how the Frigate program will come out in the end. However eventough Japan has no historical lobby connection in MinDef, it's only because Japan has not been a defense player yet in Indonesian Market. That agreement open the way for them to become defense player. Those defense lobbyst like him should be nervous right now on how Japan will play on this.

Just put this to shown the recent agreement with Japan really rattle the "tradisional" suppliers lobby.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1378413489413185542

I broke my own promisse not to link this guy tweeter again. However I put it because it is funny and shown how nervous Euro lobby including himself with Indonesian-Japan agreement.

He said don't underestimate Euro lobby, well thus he even got slightest idea how powerfull Japan Lobby throughout the wholle Indonesian Bureaucracy ? He's seems only talking to lobby in MinDef, thus he even don't get the idea that on this stage the decision from Bapanes or Ministry of Finance can over ruled MinDef.

There's no decision yet on how the Frigate program will come out in the end. However eventough Japan has no historical lobby connection in MinDef, it's only because Japan has not been a defense player yet in Indonesian Market. That agreement open the way for them to become defense player. Those defense lobbyst like him should be nervous right now on how Japan will play on this.

Just put this to shown the recent agreement with Japan really rattle the "tradisional" suppliers lobby.

|"Two fishery patrol vessels are transferring to Indonesia."|

What does he actually mean with this?

 

[Arji]

|"Two fishery patrol vessels are transferring to Indonesia."|

What does he actually mean with this?

I'm guessing he's trying to insinuate that the 'defense tech transfer' is for coast guard level boat to patrol against illegal fishery and not the big ticket navy procurement.

I don't know who he is, but why does he sounds like he's in denial.

 

[Ananda]

don't know who he is, but why does he sounds like he's in denial.

He's one of the defense consultant (Lobbyist) that usually work with Euro suppliers. His Linkedin account put him as that. He's working out "public" campaign not only through on line channel like Tweeter but also working on with You Tube channel and media forums using some consultancy firm. Basically that his "bread and butter" thus public and media campaign also part of his job to try sway public opinions. He's not alone on doing this, some other "local" analyst also working on with some media. Defense procurement after all big business.

Japan looks to cement Indonesia as key regional partner in 2-plus-2

Tokyo and ASEAN powerhouse agree to diversify China-heavy supply chains

asia.nikkei.com

I put this, to add some clarity in what the Japan-Indonesia agreement means. It's not only related to defense co-op and tech transfer/ joint production on defense articles. However it's also related with wider range Investment cooperation. This that make Euro supplier lobbyist like him 'rattle' cause they know that Japan if decided to become players in Indonesian Defense Market can provide overall packages that related to other factors like Financing and Investment.

I have put before on this forum with my experience in Finance and Commercial market, on how Western players always nervous when facing Japan competition in Indonesian market. Right now perhaps only South Korean and China that willing to play head to head with Japan in Indonesian market. Even then they know their chances being beaten by Japanese.

So I agree with you, he's bit in denial in his tweeter. Yes Japan also in media talk on immediate transfer of 2 Fisheries protection vessels. I do sense this is part of sweeteners. South Korea also provide to Philipines their Pohang class corvette as part of sweeteners for their Frigate deals.

TNI-AL in sense like Greece Navy need some stop gap assets while ordering new ones. French potential offering their soon retired Frigates to Greece as part of deals for FTI Frigates. Could Japan do that also ? Well it's possible as they are also planning to retired Abekuma Class Frigate as being replaced by this 30 FFM.

However I do sense Indonesia perhaps will ask on more Coast Guard vessels. Bakamla need more vessels, and seems MinDef already let them to be armed with up to 30mm gun due to China more agreesive Coast Guard Policy.
Having Coast Guard to Coast Guard stand off in SCS seems bit better diplomatically then Navy to Navy stand off. This is part why in this thread I already argue for some time of better equiped Maritime Constabulary force (in this essence Bakamla/Coast Guard).

The ideal way is to give more budget for Bakamla, including building locally Patrol Boats/OPV as being done before. However if they can get extra Coast Guards vessels from Japan as part of Defense deals, then why not. Japan also doing the same thing with Philipines.

Add:
I don't say that 30 FFM will definetely win. After all we are talking about Indonesia, specifically Indonesian MinDef. We know the unspoken 'rules' on Indonesian Defense Procurement; 'Nothing certain until it's delivered'.
However looking on the agreement, Personally I do sense 30FFM can be the leading canfidate. Considering how Japan seems lump out the defense cooperation with other wider range Investment and Economics cooperation. Well that jusy my two cents.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Personally i dont think its likely that the Abukuma-class destroyer escorts are suitable as a stop-gap for TNI-AL.
They will be maybe retired soon by the JMSDF, but these ships has CODOG propulsion, all Japanese CMS and sensors, and also all the american weapon systems need to be removed first.
So it is not really cost effective.
Maybe they will offer some old Coast Guard vessels, like the Tsugaru and Ojika classes.

Edit:

Again a good example why Indonesia (BAKAMLA) needs more patrol boats which are large enough to handle a helicopter and to operate for many days in rough seas

Zeventien vissers vermist in Indonesië na aanvaring met vrachtschip

Vijftien opvarenden van de vissersboot konden al uit het water worden gered.

nos.nl

A fishingboat and a cargoship collided with each other, 17 of the fishermen are still missing.

As a bonus some nice photos of the KRI Ardadedali 404 arriving at Natuna. On the last photo we can see another Type 209/1400, but it is unclear if its the KRI Nagapasa 403 or the KRI Alugoro 405.
Photos are from ANTARA FOTO/Teguh Prihatna.