Indonesia: 'green water navy'

[Ahmad]

@Ahmad you mean this one ? I see few days ago, but still not clear if this is going to be for South Korean Subs as part of last year 2nd batch DSME 1400 or another project. Logically if this for new Subs program, then USD 100+ Mio equivalent will be part of domestic financing, while the rest will use foreign credit line.

There's too much speculation on Indonesian Submarine program. Some other forums shown what they call leak from last TNI Heads Meeting (Rapim) of types of Submarines they are going to engage. Including Scorpene, 214, and ROK Chang Bogo.

I kind of sceptical they will choose both Naval Group Scorpene and TKMS 214. Both already talk with PAL and looking on PAL submarine facilities. However considering PAL capabilities, I suspect is either Naval Group or TKMS or stay with DSME to be choose on local submarine Partner. It can only be one, PAL don't have capabilities to work with two types of Submarines simultaneously. Nobody can't, not even India, Brazil or Australia.

Then there's this speculation of used 209 as stop gap. Could be the speculation on Chang Bogo as stop gap as before the speculation was on Brazilian Tupi. If this's for an second hand stop gap submarine, then it could be finance directly from budget. USD 100 Mio perhaps will be enough to get one second hand Chang Bogo

Perhaps do you more information on this one ?

Yup, that one sounds fit with the amount of deal we have reached with SK for down payment, and we have signed the contract as well in April 2019. We cannot breach the contract that has already been signed, unless we are ready to get the penalty. The deal will get loan from SK Exim Bank. Jane defense has already reported it.

Talking about the leaks, it is just a plan. Look like still having "project" mentality with so many submarine types they are going to order. Better buy the license for U214 and build it in PAL massively.

 

[Ananda]

We cannot breach the contract that has already been signed, unless we are ready to get the penalty. The deal will get loan from SK Exim Bank. Jane defense has already reported it.

On this part, I agree with you. As I also say on my previous posts that PAL need to complete their Submarine learning curve as plan with DSME. 2 batch of three each was the program that has been decided to complete PAL learning curve.

Still I don't think PAL has capabilities to work with DSME and TKMS simultaneously. The best scenario is to complete the 2nd batch DSME 1400, and then move on with other partner whether Naval Group or TKMS. Just like ROK/DSME done before with TKMS on KSS1 and KSS2.

I'm sceptical that they (MinDef) already pass that 'projects' mentality, and already on long term development stages thinking. Hopefully they already reach that level, but realistically I'm not going to hold that hope high.

 

[Ananda]

Google algorithm just link me to this:

Indonesia shortlists four options in follow-on to SIGMA 10514 frigates

Defence planners at Indonesia’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) have shortlisted four design options in a programme to procure follow-on vessels to the country’s Martadinata (SIGMA 10514)-class guided-miss...

www.janes.com

So according to Jane's sources, the Frigates option in the final stages:

1. Babcock base Type 31, this's been circulate on local forums and media. Odense working out with Babcock to offer Type 31 base. It could be have electronics and weapons more in line with Iver, but Babcock will be the development Partner.

2. Damen will offer modified Sigma, probably bigger then 10514 in previous two PKR. Since MinDef wants bigger version.

3. Mitsui 30FFM,

4. Fincantieri FREMM

Will see how this's going to develop. It could be only one type to be choose, but it also can be two type combination. This as 'rumours' circulate that the next Frigates program will not only involved PAL, but also Private Shipyards in Batam.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Google algorithm just link me to this:

Indonesia shortlists four options in follow-on to SIGMA 10514 frigates

Defence planners at Indonesia’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) have shortlisted four design options in a programme to procure follow-on vessels to the country’s Martadinata (SIGMA 10514)-class guided-miss...

www.janes.com

So according to Jane's sources, the Frigates option in the final stages:

1. Babcock base Type 31, this's been circulate on local forums and media. Odense working out with Babcock to offer Type 31 base. It could be have electronics and weapons more in line with Iver, but Babcock will be the development Partner.

2. Damen will offer modified Sigma, probably bigger then 10514 in previous two PKR. Since MinDef wants bigger version.

3. Mitsui 30FFM,

4. Fincantieri FREMM

Will see how this's going to develop. It could be only one type to be choose, but it also can be two type combination. This as 'rumours' circulate that the next Frigates program will not only involved PAL, but also Private Shipyards in Batam.

The selection of candidates/list of design options of the new large frigate to replace the Van Speijks, changes every year. But it seems that at this moment the original Iver Huitfeldt design, Frégates de taille intermédiaire (FTI) and Omega are out of the race.

 

[Ahmad]

The selection of candidates/list of design options of the new large frigate to replace the Van Speijks, changes every year. But it seems that at this moment the original Iver Huitfeldt design, Frégates de taille intermédiaire (FTI) and Omega are out of the race.

Iver down payment has already been put into 2021 defense budget if we see the document posted by Lembaga Keris recently. It is said for two ships.

 

[ChestnutTree]

CMIIW but wouldn't going with Damen lead to a faster production and delivery time as PAL already has experience in building/integrating Damen modules? Personally I don't find them a terrible choice as long as Damen/Thales Netherlands can offer a better electronics/weapons fit-out than the other competitors at a competitive price.

Shame that we would likely never see a TNI-AL ship with a fixed radar mast in the foreseeable future however.

 

[Ananda]

Iver down payment has already been put into 2021 defense budget if we see the document posted by Lembaga Keris recently. It is said for two ships.

CMIIW but wouldn't going with Damen lead to a faster production and delivery time as PAL already has experience in building/integrating Damen modules?

What's not clear yet is whether the preliminary contract for 2 iver based Frigates from last year, is going to be separate from this so call PKR follow on options that Jane's wrote. Or it's already cancelled and being lumps into this program.

There's leak from TNI-AL presentation that seems talk two different Frigates program. One for PKR and one for so call full size Frigate. This full size Frigates can be what TNI-AL hope from the 90's, which were AAW capable Frigates.
I have wrote before that after 6 Van Speijk Frigates, in 90's TNI-AL already in serious contention on getting 2 Tromp class Frigates for AAW. Economics crisis and East Timor stop that plan.

Now if they still aim that kind of postures planning, then actually they're aiming GP Frigates and AAW Frigates. PKR (or this PKR follow on) could be for GP as it's aim for Van Speijk replacement.
If the two Iver based Contract from last year is separate program, then it's probably for what TNI-AL long term aim from 90's, AAW Frigates.

Again this is not clear yet, and I only speculate based on the previous plan that being shown to Parliament of two types of Frigates program as mentioned above.

If this project as claim by Jane's as PKR follow on, while at same time there's separate Iver based Frigates (for two vessels) do exists, then Babcock design can be more beneficial for speeding up and Simplified manufacturing process. It's can be more important if the speculation of Batam based shipyards involvement along side PAL for Frigates projects.

However as Finance guy, I put my bet on 30FFM simply on financing costs trend. When Japan become seriously involved, they can provide and outbid any financial packages from any European sources (even US ones on that matters). MHI also in their video already stated that 30FFM is Japanese design for export market. Thus it's very modular which means it can be customized on every aspects from weapons, propulsion and electronics/sensors.

Well let's see how this one going to develop.

 

[ChestnutTree]

What's not clear yet is whether the preliminary contract for 2 iver based Frigates from last year, is going to be separate from this so call PKR follow on options that Jane's wrote. Or it's already cancelled and being lumps into this program.

From my understanding and talking to industry contacts, the Iver contract is from the MEF 2 program whereas the Van-Speijik replacement is from the MEF 3 program. The Iver I assume is to fulfill the AAW frigate requirement while the VS replacement are designed as general purpose frigates. The best bet to understanding this is likely to ask your contacts at the Ministry of Finance @Ananda, as the money trail is likely more credible than others.

 

[Ananda]

The best bet to understanding this is likely to ask your contacts at the Ministry of Finance @Ananda, as the money trail is likely more credible than others.

There's limit on what they can talk to us (bankers), as they will not disclose the on going process. They talk to us more due to present administration wants Banks to get more involved in Financing government projects, which includes some Defense articles. Most what they want is for local banks to provide working capital for some local Industry that working on defense projects. Thus sometimes they provide some insight how Bapenas and Ministry of Finance work as final filters. In short is more on to building confidence for local Banks on which government projects that can be considered commercially viable to finance.

That's why I put my bet on 30FFM, as my understanding Financial packages and Investment combo is matter for both institutions as determining factors. Off course those brass in MinDef have more "technical" projects consideration factors. Still as Japanese trend to provide combination of more preferable Financing packages and Investment combo, for me I just see their offer could be very attractive from those two institutions bureaucracy point of view.

Right now only Chinese and sometimes Korean that can compete with Japanese packages. Since none of them involved in this Frigates options (although rumours they are actually offering beforehand), Japan packages in my opinion can only be beaten by those Euro packages if there's some 'technicality' or projects based consideration

So let's see who will win, the financial and Investment side or technical "projects" side.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Yes, everything can happen....or nothing.

But at least we have some nice videos of the interior and exterior of two new 40+ meter patrolboats, the KRI Posepa 870 and KRI Escolar 871. 872 and 873 are still under construction but already launched.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=4117292091628119

 

[Ananda]

But at least we have some nice videos of the interior and exterior of two new 40+ meter patrolboats, the KRI Posepa 870 and KRI Escolar 871. 872 and 873 are still under construction but already launched

Those 40+m patrol boats whether KCR (Missiles boats) or KAL (Patrol Boats) version has more tractions not only due to prices, but also due to financial packages support. My previous Bank involved with financing packages for one of the local shipyards that produce them.

This's just an example how financing packages is very important on MinDef projects tractions. They can't be finance overall only through government budgets, even the domestic ones like those patrol boats. Imagine the additional costs if it's involving Foreign vendors on ToT schemes.

To improve domestic industries involvement on defense projects with foreign vendors, financing packages must also be available for them to improve their facilities and operation buffers. Mostly it can only happen through additional separate commercial financing packages or Investment scheme.

If this Frigates program wants to also enlarge involvement of local Shipyards (out side PAL), as create more capabilities and capacities locally. Then there has to be Investment and Financing packages calculation too. You can't expect (as the administration wants) on Tech Transfer program, without providing infrastructure support building too. That's the consequences of Investment on any Tech Transfer program.

That's why ToT is more expensive then any straight away import building program. Something that many in Indonesia always talk ToT but not overly all realizes the additional cost that follows. ToT scheme basically you pay on the assets price plus Investment costs to build it locally. That Investment costs either being paid by suppliers off set scheme, or by direct Investment from government (example case the Submarine facilities in PAL).

I put in here, cause seems many local media or even Defense analyst didn't calculate that, when talking to the public on ToT schemes. Many of them only focusing with procurement costs.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Meanwhile at PT Lundin....not much progress from last year, or this project is on hold, or completely death.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371295873678802947

 

[Ananda]

https://www.kemhan.go.id/2021/03/17/kapal-selam-buatan-dalam-negeri-kri-alugoro-405-perkuat-alutsista-tni-al.html

The third DSME 1400 submarine Alugoro 405 finally being hand over to Indonesian MinDef. This's as being already circulate some time, is the first submarine being assembled locally. The article from MinDef site doesn't shown what new submarine program after this. However for me, this article more or less shown MinDef supporting this administration Political possition for local Industry involvement on future Defense projects.

DSME, Naval Group and TKMS all compete for next batch submarine program, with further increasing PAL involvement.
The article as like many articles from local sources, talk Alugoro as first locally build submarine. Seems the local media still can't differentiate between Assembled and Manufacture.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

https://www.kemhan.go.id/2021/03/17/kapal-selam-buatan-dalam-negeri-kri-alugoro-405-perkuat-alutsista-tni-al.html

The third DSME 1400 submarine Alugoro 405 finally being hand over to Indonesian MinDef. This's as being already circulate some time, is the first submarine being assembled locally. The article from MinDef site doesn't shown what new submarine program after this. However for me, this article more or less shown MinDef supporting this administration Political possition for local Industry involvement on future Defense projects.

DSME, Naval Group and TKMS all compete for next batch submarine program, with further increasing PAL involvement.
The article as like many articles from local sources, talk Alugoro as first locally build submarine. Seems the local media still can't differentiate between Assembled and Manufacture.

DCNS's Scorpène, HDW/TKMS's Type 214 or DSME's Type 209, they are all capable submarines, but in my opinion a decision has to be made fast, we not only need more submarines, but PAL will loose its knowledge, experience and expertise if the next years nothing happen. Besides that in 2030 the almost 50 year old Type 209/1300 boats need to be replaced.


At last....the first decent video of the handing over of KRI Alugoro 405 to the Ministry of Defence.

I also want that scale-model!
Source of the photo: TNI-AL.

 

[Ahmad]

DCNS's Scorpène, TKMS's Type 214 or DSME's Type 209, they are all capable submarines, but in my opinion a decision has to be made fast, we not only need more submarines, but PAL will loose its knowledge, experience and expertise if the next years nothing happen. Besides that in 2030 the almost 50 year old Type 209/1300 boats need to be replaced.


At last....the first decent video of the handing over of KRI Alugoro 405 to the Ministry of Defence.

I also want that scale-model!
Source of the photo: TNI-AL.

Look on latest lembaga keris twitter which show PT PAL latesr statement.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Look on latest lembaga keris twitter which show PT PAL latesr statement.

You mean this? "Berdasarkan rilisan PT.PAL, Menhan RI bertekad bahwa Indonesia dapat melaksanakan seluruh Rancang Bangun Kapal Selam di dalam negeri, dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun mendatang. Artinya melanjutkan DSME 209."?

This part, "Artinya melanjutkan DSME 209", is it from PAL or is it a conclusion from Lembaga Keris?

 

[Ahmad]

DCNS's Scorpène, TKMS's Type 214 or DSME's Type 209, they are all capable submarines, but in my opinion a decision has to be made fast, we not only need more submarines, but PAL will loose its knowledge, experience and expertise if the next years nothing happen. Besides that in 2030 the almost 50 year old Type 209/1300 boats need to be replaced.


At last....the first decent video of the handing over of KRI Alugoro 405 to the Ministry of Defence.

I also want that scale-model!
Source of the photo: TNI-AL.

I want IFX model

You mean this? "Berdasarkan rilisan PT.PAL, Menhan RI bertekad bahwa Indonesia dapat melaksanakan seluruh Rancang Bangun Kapal Selam di dalam negeri, dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun mendatang. Artinya melanjutkan DSME 209."?

This part, "Artinya melanjutkan DSME 209", is it from PAL or is it a conclusion from Lembaga Keris?

That part comes from Lembaga Keris but so far only Korean which offer complete construction for third submarine in Indonesia (PT PAL) so thats why LK suggest it will likely be DSME 209

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372128367068246017

Congrats to TNI AL on the handover of KRI Alugoro (405); this is known as the Nagapasa class submarine (also known as the improved Chang Bogo class). Maintaining a submarine capability needs both boats and trading facilities which the TNI AL has invested in.

KRI Alugoro (405) was launched on 11 Apr 2019 at PT PAL's Semarang Dock. This submarine contract was signed in Dec 2011 with DSME; making this a 10 year journey to build and handover the 1st of three 61 metre long x 6.3-meter-wide beam submarines, below are pics with interesting views of TNI AL’s shore based trainer.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371309169500844034

 

[Ananda]

Hopefully the decision on next batch of Submarine will be decided soon. PT. PAL need more submarine projects to complete their learning curve. Right now their learning curve being maintain by doing complete overhaul and refurbishing KRI Tjakra 401. Hoping to regain another decade more on that 40 years 209.

Below is graphics info from PT. PAL FB page. For me there's subtle massage that PAL wants to convey. They have to get continues projects to maintain their capabilities on building Defense projects.

 

[Ahmad]

Under current submarine building facility of PT PAL, they can make at least two submarines simultaneously. So after they master complete submarine building capability inshaAllah, they should build every 2 submarines simultaneously. Only building one submarine in one time will not meet our future submarines needs. 10 years to build three submarines from signing the contract until they are all given to navy is too long, although there is some years delay (1-2 years) if I am not mistaken due to the government delay in disbursing money to make the submarine building facility in PT PAL.