Indonesia: 'green water navy'

Ahmad

Active Member
If the Iver Huitfeldt design will be chosen by Mindef, then its for sure that Indonesia will not order any 30FFM.

But as you said, its better to wait until next year (or 2024) to see what will happen.
I believe next year we are going to see some orders for navy, particularly for frigates and OPV. For submarine, they need to finish that additional submarine building facility first.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
I believe next year we are going to see some orders for navy, particularly for frigates and OPV. For submarine, they need to finish that additional submarine building facility first.
Believe...wish...hope?
I also hope that next year we are going to see some orders for the navy....but i am doing this for the last 6 years...

About the submarine building facility, i also wonder on which stage the additional buildings are. Last month this video was posted by PAL.
between 2:50 - 3:00 there is a quick birdview on the submarine building complex, it looks finished, but it is not visible if all the required additional buildings are also already built and finished.
All other newer video's from PAL are useless Covid-19 and "Indonesia Muda Club" videos.

With every year i am becoming more pessimistic about the intentions of the current administration. Even if PALs facility is completely finished, i will not be surprised if until 2024 there will be no submarine orders (to be build at PAL or newbuild from abroad) at all.
 
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Ahmad

Active Member
Believe...wish...hope?
I also hope that next year we are going to see some orders for the navy....but i am doing this for the last 6 years...

About the submarine building facility, i also wonder on which stage the additional buildings are. Last month this video was posted by PAL.
between 2:50 - 3:00 there is a quick birdview on the submarine building complex, it looks finished, but it is not visible if all the required additional buildings are also already built and finished.
All other newer video's from PAL are useless Covid-19 and "Indonesia Muda Club" videos.

With every year i am becoming more pessimistic about the intentions of the current administration. Even if PALs facility is completely finished, i will not be surprised if until 2024 there will be no submarine orders (to be build at PAL or newbuild from abroad) at all.
Ha ha, this is why I was absent talking here during Jokowi first term he he. No need to waste time talking rumor he he. Despite so, some orders are really made during Jokowi first term, particularly related to equipment that can be provided by our local defense industry. The sales growth experienced by our major local defense industries are quite good during Jokowi first term by the way, it is just an indication that they did make some spending for weapon and defense equipment during that period. The financing, can be said, just taken directly from the defense budget, not many uses domestic or foreign loan, something like hospital ships, KCR 60, CN 235, NC 212, and so on.

Well, the funding for additional submarine building facility will be taken from 2021 budget, there is no single Rupiah yet being disbursed. This is why there should be at least another 1 year before the facility is really completed. Because of that, it is understandable if Helman said there is no loan approval yet for Chang Bogo. It doesnt mean it is going to be cancelled, in my opinion, like he would like to show from the way he uses words on his twitt, but rather, I believe, waiting for the facility to be constructed first before any loan approval is made, regardless what kind of submarines that is going to be ordered. Despite so, Chang Bogo is likely the one that will be choosen IMO due to its TOT package that is more appealing for our local industry and its program contribution on our domestic economy.

I think this second administration will be quite different, but I also dont expect massive order to happen like during SBY administration. As I said repeatedly, they will likely to prefer financing the orders that are more related to our local defense companies and has more effect on our economy. That tendency has just been shown by seeing Pindad products massive orders this year. The proposal made by defense industry to get foreign loan is also an indication that there will be some different between first and second Jokowi administration, although I believe and hope that large portion of it will be rejected, particularly for foreign orders that is expensive, has little TOT, and zero domestic economy/local industry participation like F 16 V possible orders (better wait KFX/IFX program)

This is the latest news about order execution during this term. Tanker ship for Navy that will be build by our local shipyard, Batamex.


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tonnyc

Active Member
Re: foreign loans and navy orders.
The Japanese offer is interesting though. They are willing to include domestic shipyards in the program, as we see from their visit to PT PAL facilities back in September. (see post #1119) A 30DX sale in which Indonesia gets to build the hull but have the internal systems provided by Japan is going to be a very attractive offer. And if they're willing to give the loan in terms similar to JICA, that's definitely worth examining in detail.

JICA is civilian and I believe Japanese politics make it impossible for JICA to finance defense systems. The closest they can get is unarmed coast guard ships (which can be armed later after it's turned over). But Japan has been talking about wanting to export defense systems, and if they can create a sort of financing scheme that offers the very low rates similar to what we see in JICA, it may counteract the higher cost of Japanese systems. JICA's loan term is extremely generous, with interest rate as low as 0.01% annually. Indonesia won't qualify for that sort of term--that's only for the very poor countries--but even a standard 1.25% annual interest rate over 30 years is way better than what commercial banks offer. Moreover, if Japan's willing to offer us Special Terms for Economic Partnership (STEP) terms, that's 0.1% annual interest rate. Given that the requirement for STEP is "extended to the projects for which Japanese technologies and know-how are substantially utilized, based on the recipient countries' request to utilize and transfer excellent technologies of Japan", I don't think it's a stretch to say that the 30DX frigates qualify.

Again, they can't use JICA for this. But they don't have to. A plain G2G contract that omits the name JICA but has essentially the same terms will do.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member
Yes, they can use Similar terms like they are doing in JICA project without using JICA. Export defense equipment is new venture by Japanese. However they way they're going to do it, I do suspect will not be much different with the way they're doing Investment-Credit Loan cooperation in other sectors.

Just like they are taking that 3 EW Radars deal from Philippines. If I see the Philippines forums, even they're quite surprised with the speed of the deal in comparison of how usual Philippines MinDef getting procurement deal.
For one thing, Japan already have more than 50 years cornering commercial deals in Asia, and they know how to co-op better.

All the deals they're doing is part of getting orders for their own industry, but in same time they're also getting partners in other Asian Host countries. In one point it give involvement to local industry and Jobs (which is good for their PR campaign, which also so far they're doing it better then the Chinese), on other points they also put the local partners as part of their supply chain this maintain long term Partnership.
This will give continues foot hold on the market, we can see that on what they're doing with Thailand and Indonesia automotive industries (which are two largest in ASEAN).

MHI not only looking just for PAL facilities, but they are also assessing other Shipyards in Banten and Batam. Thus it shows similarities with Japanese practice on looking for Partners to do the local jobs.

Question will be if TNI-AL will prefer on Japanese systems. This's the systems that they're not familiar with. However looking on MHI videos on 30FFM seems they prepare to potentially combine non Japanese systems in the design.
I suspect MHI looking on Partners to build the hulls and superstructure, while they supervise the building, and system integration. Japanese machineries and propulsion system will be use, but on sensors, electronics and weapons they will let whatever the customer choose.

Just like in the Philippines, Japanese can cut other potential suppliers that already in talk before. After all, even with Chinese and South Korean advancement on commercial deals, ASEAN as whole still relied to Japanese as biggest Investors and suppliers on Heavy Industry equipment and High Tech equipment.

One thing that can be said with Japanese, they might be bit slower to come with decision compared to Chinese and South Korean, however once they make their move, they're relentless on pushing it.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member

Confirmation from PT. PAL for Capital Injection from Government of IDR 1.28 T (around USD 90 Mio) will be used to complete their Submarine Yard facilities. The initial injection of IDR 1.5 T five years ago (around USD 110 mio on exchange rate that time), being used on what can be said as Phase 1 facilities.

The Phase 1 enable PT. PAL to do Submarine overhaul and Assembly. This on what can be call Phase 2 will enable them for complete manufacturing process.

Back then PT. PAL told media that the facilities being build for manufacturing Submarine of around 2000 ton class. No additional info whether the capacity range will be still around 2000 ton or more.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Even there are no signs that additional submarines will be ordered, it is good news. At least Indonesia will have complete maintenance, repair and overhaul facilities.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member
Well it will be Political Issue with this Administration if they already give government Injection for around USD 200 mio for PT. PAL during 5 years period, and only used that for maintenance and overhaul. It can raise question in Parliament, and usually that kind of thing want to be avoided.

Considering that, I do see some Submarine projects will be done toward the rest of this administration second term. Question what kind of Submarine will be in the project.

Off course from PT. PAL it self already prepared the work toward DSME 1400 second batch. They have shown it to public and media. However we also know political wrangling on continuation of DSME 1400, moreover other Suppliers lobby try to cut DSME from TNI-AL next submarine project.

Personally as I have put in my older post in this thread, I support DSME 2000 design to be co-op by PAL and DSME as next batch of TNI-AL submarine.

It's a design that being prepared by DSME for export, thus will not be used by ROKN. This can put potential leverage by PAL to discuss with DSME to co-own the design. It's also more advance design than DSME 1400 however still build based on that. Thus learning curve by PAL will not that big, compared to taking over new design from Naval Group, TKMS or SAAB. There's nothing wrong with DSME expertise on Submarine building, it just some 'parties' try to smear that for purpose of their "favorite" supplier.

That's just my two cents. The "expert" in MinDef will be the one who decide or more correctly give the right "assessment" to the administration.
 
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