Capacity as at September 2025.
Less then I would have thought, but better then nothing I suppose.
Less then I would have thought, but better then nothing I suppose.
MARKMILES77
Well-Known Member
National Defence Strategy 2026 to be released Thursday.
Only hint of what is in it from the Minister is a massive increase in funding for drones of all kinds.
No details on what, if anything will be cut to fund this.
Only hint of what is in it from the Minister is a massive increase in funding for drones of all kinds.
No details on what, if anything will be cut to fund this.
I do hope some of that $12-15 B on autonomous systems will include MCM systems and a clear path to practically replace the capability lost. Not just more vague, "we'll look at Autonomous and AI technology".
PHOTOGRAPHER
New Member
$12-15 over 10 years doesnt sound like it will totally revolutionise the ADF. If a production contract for Ghostbat is announced that will take a fair chunk of the RAAF share of this announcement. Just an observation, not a criticism as i think the Ghostbat is perfect for the ADF along with any other unmanned solutions deemed worthwhile. The 2 potentially big ticket items i am interested to hear about are Speartooth and Atlas. Speartooth as a relatively inexpensive LUUV could be purchased en-mass and give us MUCH greater maritime power, along with the already announced Ghostshark. Atlas..., well lets see. Super in theory but still fairly early in its development.
Gotta say that as an out an proud conservative, i cant fault the current Gov for its efforts to acquire bulk unmanned solutions for the ADF over land, air and sea.. The already announced idea that we wont be investing in huge numbers of first person drones make sense when you hear it explained by the Defence Industry minister. Dont order many thousands that might be obsolete by the time conflict comes around. Order enough to keep the production line open and incrementally improve the product until the SHTF and ramp up production with the latest, most effective model. Thats a solid lesson from Ukraine. OFC our circumstances are very different being so far from our likely adversary. Are mass fpv drones warranted in our position? Would appreciate any feedback from someone with more current knowedge than mine.
Quite excited to read the full announcement on Thursday but a bit worried about which programs have been "Reprioritised" to help pay for it. Lets hope Land 8113 is safe from cuts. What else could be at risk? Anyone?
Gotta say that as an out an proud conservative, i cant fault the current Gov for its efforts to acquire bulk unmanned solutions for the ADF over land, air and sea.. The already announced idea that we wont be investing in huge numbers of first person drones make sense when you hear it explained by the Defence Industry minister. Dont order many thousands that might be obsolete by the time conflict comes around. Order enough to keep the production line open and incrementally improve the product until the SHTF and ramp up production with the latest, most effective model. Thats a solid lesson from Ukraine. OFC our circumstances are very different being so far from our likely adversary. Are mass fpv drones warranted in our position? Would appreciate any feedback from someone with more current knowedge than mine.
Quite excited to read the full announcement on Thursday but a bit worried about which programs have been "Reprioritised" to help pay for it. Lets hope Land 8113 is safe from cuts. What else could be at risk? Anyone?
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Australia does need more capable drones such as Ghost Bat, Ghost Shark, Tritons and so on, but we have seen with the Russian Ukraine war and again with the US/Israel/Iran conflict that you need cheap and attritable drones. Also we need to acquire the capability to economically shoot down the drones of any potential enemy.
A new National Defence Strategy paper is due out this year and you might see some major rejigging of our defence priorities.
Much has changed since the last paper. Certainly our relationship with the US needs to be reassessed. It isn't just a question of how reliable an ally the Americans are, but also the question of whether or not we really even want to be involved with American adventurism. This could mean taking taking a more independent position with our defence. Lots of cheap drones could be the the answer to that problem.
A new National Defence Strategy paper is due out this year and you might see some major rejigging of our defence priorities.
Much has changed since the last paper. Certainly our relationship with the US needs to be reassessed. It isn't just a question of how reliable an ally the Americans are, but also the question of whether or not we really even want to be involved with American adventurism. This could mean taking taking a more independent position with our defence. Lots of cheap drones could be the the answer to that problem.
Todjaeger and others have long debated various security challenges, and the conflict in Ukraine—which often resembles the static, brutal attrition of the Somme—highlights how drones thrive against fixed positions. However, Australia's geography dictates we won't be fighting a trench war; instead, Australia's "cheap" drones must be effective across vast distances.
While building a sovereign industrial base enhances Australia's independence, it doesn't automatically solve the complex security scenarios previously discussed. Furthermore, securing borders must be balanced with maintaining a functioning society; we don't want Australian airports to become overly "hardened" like LAX, losing their openness and efficiency.
Lee Kuan Yew once noted that if soft targets (like schools or airports) are hardened excessively, they paradoxically become more attractive targets for disruption. Despite Singapore's relentless pursuit of technological superiority, they never used technology as a substitute for people. Instead, they increased military personnel in line with their population, recognizing that technology is an enabler, not a replacement, for human presence and resilience.
A sovereign drone capability is a critical tool for Australia's independence, but it is not a silver bullet. We must avoid the trap of thinking technology alone can replace manpower or solve every security challenge. The goal should be to find a Goldilocks zone: leveraging drones for long-range denial while maintaining a robust, human-centric defence force that protects our way of life without turning our public spaces into fortresses.
While building a sovereign industrial base enhances Australia's independence, it doesn't automatically solve the complex security scenarios previously discussed. Furthermore, securing borders must be balanced with maintaining a functioning society; we don't want Australian airports to become overly "hardened" like LAX, losing their openness and efficiency.
Lee Kuan Yew once noted that if soft targets (like schools or airports) are hardened excessively, they paradoxically become more attractive targets for disruption. Despite Singapore's relentless pursuit of technological superiority, they never used technology as a substitute for people. Instead, they increased military personnel in line with their population, recognizing that technology is an enabler, not a replacement, for human presence and resilience.
A sovereign drone capability is a critical tool for Australia's independence, but it is not a silver bullet. We must avoid the trap of thinking technology alone can replace manpower or solve every security challenge. The goal should be to find a Goldilocks zone: leveraging drones for long-range denial while maintaining a robust, human-centric defence force that protects our way of life without turning our public spaces into fortresses.
OldTex
Well-Known Member
Singapore with a large population and a small geographic area (hence a high population density) could use technology to increase the effect per person. Ukraine with a larger population and a larger area has used technology to offset the manpower advantage enjoyed by their adversary. Australia with a small population and a very large area needs to use technology to increase both the effectiveness of the personnel and increase the reach of the individual (and collective) combatant.
I think there is logic to this, however at a tactical deployment level I think we would still be subjected to, and seek to employ short range attritable drones, as demonstrated in Ukraine.
Likewise I am very interested to understand Australia's path with drone systems. While we need to note the impact of drone warfare in Ukraine, and the middle east, not all learnings from these will be relevent to us. For instance I can't see short range drones having the same impact for our environment as in Ukraine.
Drones with medium and long range, with autonomous capability, capability are more aligned. I'm thinking a shahed style drone to match with ghost bat for an effective mass/specialty combination.
Drone defence is perhaps more concerning, and seeing what technologies we will settle around. We need something with low cost, mass capacity, rapid adaptability and usable across the board (army, navy and airforce). I think the Ukraine interceptor drone technology is ripe for our use.
I think the future for ghost bat, ghost shark, speartooth and bluebottle are all assured, and we will see rapid batch improvements. In five years these platforms will be unrecognisable. I'm thinking the LOCSV strategy is likely to change significantly. The original 6 large vessels is already fundamentally outdated. Atlas has a lot of promise. I'm thinking an Atlas-Skyranger combination would be an interesting pathway.
I can't see 8113 loosing funding. This government have been very careful not to chop and change their strategy.
Every platoon deserves that kind of reach and intel IMO.
Edit: Ukraine is struggling with things Australia isn't, like keeping the lights on. Once this tech really takes off, the whole landscape is going to shift fast.
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Conflict has really changed rapidly in the last decade.
The unmanned space is very much a revolution that cannot be ignored.
Not sure I have the answers but I will be particularly interested as to what is announced tomorrow for Army.
Particularly for the small unmanned realm.
Offensive and defensive systems.
Suggest the structure of the battalions and Brigades will evolve to look dramatically different than their current composition down the track.
Scary but interesting times.
As a side note , I think attack drones can now realistically be classified as a missile.
Cheers S
A significant fire occured at one of Australia's remaining two oil refineries. Energy Minister Chris Bowen confirmed the fire will impact fuel supply, with the main impacts appearing to be on the refinery’s petrol production. It processed up to 120,000 barrels a day.
Aardvark144
Active Member
The Fire Commissioner has advised it will not impact production - https://www.news.com.au/national/vi...e/news-story/0012538dd581d116e1487dd9e8a23c64 so anyone's guess I suppose.
KrustyKoala
New Member
From the ABC:
Geelong Mayor Stretch Kontelj said the refinery's operators were unable to identify a cause of the fire at this point.
What we do know however, is that Fire Rescue Victoria (FRV) was called to the Viva Energy Refinery at 11:05pm following multiple reports of "explosions and flames".
FRV Assistant Chief Fire Officer Michael McGuinness said the fire started in the "mogas" section of the plant where motor gasoline was produced.
"There's been some sort of leak, there's hydrocarbons, flammable liquids which very readily caught fire," he said.
Firefighter union secretary Peter Marshall spoke to ABC News Melbourne about this.
"I don't want to get ahead of any coronial inquest, but as I understand, one of the pipes has actually failed resulting in a leak that caused combustion that resulted in a large fire," he said.
www.abc.net.au
Geelong Mayor Stretch Kontelj said the refinery's operators were unable to identify a cause of the fire at this point.
What we do know however, is that Fire Rescue Victoria (FRV) was called to the Viva Energy Refinery at 11:05pm following multiple reports of "explosions and flames".
FRV Assistant Chief Fire Officer Michael McGuinness said the fire started in the "mogas" section of the plant where motor gasoline was produced.
"There's been some sort of leak, there's hydrocarbons, flammable liquids which very readily caught fire," he said.
Firefighter union secretary Peter Marshall spoke to ABC News Melbourne about this.
"I don't want to get ahead of any coronial inquest, but as I understand, one of the pipes has actually failed resulting in a leak that caused combustion that resulted in a large fire," he said.
Live: Equipment failure to blame for Geelong oil refinery fire, firefighters say
Authorities are fighting a fire engulfing the Geelong Viva Energy oil refinery, one of two major refineries in the country. Follow live.
www.abc.net.au
IIP 2026 is up…
online.flippingbook.com
Edit:
New VSHORAD missile system for dismounted and vehicle mounted applications and new medium ranged air defence system, that seems to have been allocated to Army rather than RAAF…
That’s about it for new capability…
2026 Integrated Investment Program
Edit:
New VSHORAD missile system for dismounted and vehicle mounted applications and new medium ranged air defence system, that seems to have been allocated to Army rather than RAAF…
That’s about it for new capability…
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Pretty good overall, about what was expected.IIP 2026 is up…
2026 Integrated Investment Program
Edit:
New VSHORAD missile system for dismounted and vehicle mounted applications and new medium ranged air defence system, that seems to have been allocated to Army rather than RAAF…
That’s about it for new capability…
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Still reading, and at the risk of starting fantasy fleet discussions.
What is with the unapproved but planned spend on the Arafura class of an additional $1-1.5 Billion?
Nothing mentioned as far as I can see regarding an east coast submarine base.
Nothing in the estimates that would suggest additional Boxer or Redback, but quite a bit of money in the estimates for Bushmaster.
What is with the unapproved but planned spend on the Arafura class of an additional $1-1.5 Billion?
Nothing mentioned as far as I can see regarding an east coast submarine base.
Nothing in the estimates that would suggest additional Boxer or Redback, but quite a bit of money in the estimates for Bushmaster.
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Probably see more in the next NDS in 2028.
Not sure quite how defence do the math!
If it’s for an additional “something”;it would be interesting as to what you get for around 200 million per ship.
Maybe one or more of the following.
New main gun
Unmanned sea or air assets
MCM equipment
Sensor upgrade
Upgraded aviation support for the flight deck
Cheers S