It will be interesting to see how Australian fuel security gets shaken out by this event. While the immediate focus is on procuring fuel at any price, there must be a review on how to create at least a basic local supply chain.
Unfortunately everything needed to improve supply security is extraordinarily expensive. Pipelines like the above are in the order of several billions of dollars. So are new refineries of any type. And it would take in the order of at least a decade to implement.
We are ultimately in the situation we have because of a push to lower the cost of fuel. We made over several decades, decisions to obtain cheaper fuel at the cost of long term resilience. We can blame Governments, but we should note that we consistently elected governments with this mandate.
Initially, we can restart fuel supply from the US as an alternative to the middle east and SE Asia. We have just procured a few shipments, however this could be expanded. It provides a supply that is not middle east dependent (Texan refineries are mostly supplied locally, from Canada, and presumably soon Venezuela).
A little known fact is that Australia used to hold much more than the current 30 days of inventory. Back in 2012 we had 90 days and more. Some, but not all of that storage capacity still exists, it just needs to be fully filled. Additional tanks can be built, but that is probably a 12-18 month program. This is perhaps the cheapest and quickest thing we could do to improve security.
Australia also produces a not insignificant amount of crude oil, more than enough to supply the two refineries in Brisbane and Geelong. It is however the wrong type, meaning it is not easily distilled and we don't have a coastal fleet to transport it. We produce light crude, our refineries use heavy crude. It is possible to convert the existing refrineries and contract some ships, but this is a five year build program. It would however mean that at least the 20% of refined products we manufacture, is not dependent on overseas crude oil. This is perhaps the second most cheapest thing we could do for security.
Thereafter, to be contraversial, it is to wean off fuel as soon as possible. Electrify the private car fleet and progressively do the same with trucks.
And a point to make. We will never have cheap fuel again. Even if middle east supplies return undamaged quickly (which I doubt they will), the above is an expensive program that will all be built into the future price of a litre of petrol for ever.
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