Forecast International,
NEWTOWN, Conn: Iranian regional designs coupled with wariness over blowback from a potential U.S. strike on Iran’s nascent nuclear facilities are driving the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members closer towards joint defense cooperation according to a new Forecast International Middle East Military Markets Analysis. Faced with a sizeable Iranian missile inventory and Tehran’s substantial manpower superiority, the GCC states – flush with substantial petro-proceeds – have escalated their defense spending in the past several years in a quest to secure a distinct defense material edge intended to offset Iran’s advantages.
According to Forecast figures, the six GCC members – Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – have seen their collective defense spending grow from $31.15 million in 2003, to $40.33 billion in 2005 and reaching roughly $49.6 billion in 2007. This collective figure is expected to grow again in 2008, likely topping $51 billion according to Forecast’s Middle East Military Market analyst, Dan Darling.
“The GCC states are drawing closer together out of necessity in the face of what they perceive as Iranian designs of regional supremacy,” Darling said. “While an initial strike from Iran is unlikely, the real worry among the Gulf states is that any American attack on Iran will result in retaliation by Tehran in the form of missile attacks at strategic sites on their soil due to their pro-U.S. alignment and housing of American bases. There is also worry that Iran may attempt to disrupt the GCC states shipping lanes and cargo in the Strait of Hormuz, or activate terrorist sleeper cells within those countries as a valuable proxy element,” Darling added.
Begun in 1981 as a collective security grouping and loose economic cooperative, the first formative GCC force was the code-named ‘Peninsula Shield’ defense brigade launched in 1986 with around 5,000 troops. GCC forces fought together against Saddam Hussein’s military in the 1990 Gulf War and reinforced Kuwait’s defenses prior to the recent U.S. invasion of Iraq.
But the grouping has yet to achieve the level of Gulf equivalent to the NATO alliance. The fall of the Hussein regime drained the immediacy of bolstering GCC joint security constructs, and infighting festered among members as Oman and Qatar grew weary of what they perceived to be excessive Saudi influence concerning Peninsula Shield. Now with the rebuilding of a new Iraqi state bogged down and Iranian rhetoric becoming increasingly aggressive the logic behind GCC collective defense once again stands clear to members.
The GCC nations not only have to worry about fallout from the Iraq invasion in the form of refugee streams and Shiite-Sunni power grabs in the fractured country, but they also have internal security concerns: the threat of home-grown terrorism emanating from large and growing youthful demographics straddled with joblessness and increasingly disenchanted with their regimes. Yet it is the specter of Iran that looms large in the collective psyche of the Gulf States.
“What the GCC members are seeking is leverage in the form of a strategic deterrent which they hope will offset any potential Iranian attacks or dissuade Tehran from making aggressive overtures against them,” Darling states.
In this regard the Bush administration is attempting to help the GCC nations in the form of $20 billion in proposed Foreign Military Sales (FMS), much of which are likely to be directed towards Saudi Arabia. Scant details have been forthcoming concerning much of the proposed weaponry involved in the FMS package, but items believed to be on the table include thousands of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM), UAVs, electronic warfare equipment and air-to-air missiles. The possibility that the proposed FMS package passes through Congress without difficulty, however, is slight. Instead it will probably take the eventual shape of a grab-bag of items from a GCC wish-list that is picked over by Congress and approved in parts. Maintaining Israel’s regional weapons supremacy is one concern, but there are others.
“While these advanced weapons may serve to counter any Iranian designs and possibly bolster Gulf concerns at waning American commitment to the region,” Darling adds, “they carry the potential prospect of falling into the wrong hands if any of the regimes of the Gulf nations should face overthrow by a radical movement.”
Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.
