PINR, The general consensus is that China will gradually emerge as a power in East Asia able to challenge the U.S. for regional dominance. In preparation, every country facing the prospect of Beijing's wake is reassessing its strategic options in order to gain the best position possible after China sails ahead. Japan is looking for methods to challenge China's rising military power in the region and may amend its constitution in order to see this through. The A.S.E.A.N. states are pursuing a strategy of interlocking their economies with China's, while looking to the U.S. and India for balance and leverage. South Korea is moving closer to Beijing, though will continue to rely on its special relationship with Washington. Washington's current National Security Strategy sees about a decade of opportunity for the U.S. to act in order to achieve permanent security dominance in the region before China will be able to block such an effort.
In the meantime, China's foreign policy has largely been driven by immediate needs — access to economic markets and energy resources. Knowing that its geopolitical power is directly tied to China's economic rise, and the perception that it will continue for the midterm, Beijing has limited its other geopolitical ambitions for the moment and has pursued the “waiting game,” sensing that its hand will increase in value as the game continues, as long as it is able to get its domestic cards in order. While the U.S., India, Russia and Japan may maneuver to limit China's expanded reach, there are several domestic liabilities that could potentially limit Beijing's ability to gain its presumed position in the region.
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