This second BASIC Trident Commission report focuses on issues around jobs, the maintenance of skills and technology and the regional economic concerns that will inevitably have an impact on political decisions.
Professor Keith Hartley analyses the impacts arising from possible options and concludes that if a future government decided to cancel the programme we would be looking at jobs losses of around 9,200 jobs mainly after 2025 followed by the loss of a further 21,700 jobs after 2052: amounting to a total of almost 31,000 jobs being lost.
The time available for adjustment is apparent largely because there are substantial submarine contracts in play today, with the construction of the Astute class attack submarines, allowing time for future government intervention in particularly-exposed local economies. It should be remembered that submarine manufacture is particularly capital-intensive, so that more alternative jobs could be created with the same investment.
He also concludes that cancellation of the Trident renewal programme could produce substantial cost savings of up to £83.5 billion over the period 2016 to 2062, equivalent to an annual average saving of £1.86 billion.
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Source: British-American Security Information Council
