NEWTOWN, Conn.: Forecast International projects the worldwide expendable launch vehicle (ELV) market to be worth $47 billion over the 2010-2019 time-period. The “Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles” study projects 621 individual launch vehicles will be produced during that time.
The study notes that many of the large communications satellite companies are in the midst of major buying programs to modify and expand their fleets of satellites. This will benefit launch service providers, who will deliver those satellites into orbit.
While this will create a short-term boom for launch providers, the industry is still recovering from a downturn in the market. For many years, competition and lack of business put profits at razor-thin margins. According to William Ostrove, Aerospace Systems analyst and author of the study, “The downturn in launch service requirements forced many programs to be restructured.” These programs include the U.S. Air Force Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program and the European Ariane 5 program. In addition, Sea Launch, a launch service provider using Zenit launch vehicles from a modified deep-sea oil platform, was forced to declare bankruptcy.
Challenges remain for the launch industry through the next 10 years. Sea Launch is expected to emerge from bankruptcy protection and begin operations. New launch providers, such as Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), are also expected to enter the market over the next 10 years. Along with the increased competition, once major buying programs are completed at the major satellite operators, launch opportunities may be diminished. However, the study points out areas of promise for the launch industry.
“New companies, such as SpaceX, offer innovative solutions to reduce costs and improve efficiency,” said Ostrove.
The study also adds that demand for launch services will continue, even after major buying programs are completed, as companies upgrade their satellite networks and replace aging satellites. Governments will also be a source of steady income. The U.S. military, in particular, is an important buyer of satellites. The Pentagon will continue to require the services of launch providers.
The top manufacturer over the next 10 years of expendable launch vehicles will be United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin that produces and markets Delta IV and Atlas V launch vehicles. Other top manufacturers include Ariane 5 builder Astrium; TsSKB Progress, which make the Soyuz; Khurnichev, manufacturer of the Proton; and China Great Wall Industries, builder of the Long March family of launch vehicles.
