United Press International,
WASHINGTON: Rumors in Iraq have a weight that government and even newspaper reports don't seem to carry, and the latest rumors suggest Iraqis believe a civil war is imminent and the United States secretly wants it to happen.
Just three days after U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld criticized what he believes to be “exaggerated” and one-sided press coverage of apparently sectarian violence in Iraq sparked by the Feb. 22 attack on a Shiite mosque in Samarra, U.S. military intelligence reported that “most Iraqis increasingly fear an all-out civil war will begin soon.”
“In fact, the entire group believes that Iraq is at least in a state of low-level civil war and most believe that the country is one assassination or Samarra-type event away from all-out civil war,” it stated.
That suggestion is contained in the March 10 edition of the “Baghdad Mosquito,” a daily collection of “open source intelligence” culled from Iraqi newspapers, as well as rumors from a group of “knowledgeable” Iraqis.
The Skeeter, as it is known, was begun in 2003 as the insurgency began to heat up. It is an attempt to capture every day the zeitgeist on the street in Iraq, and hopefully to give a clue as to how to shape it. It is produced by the Multi-National Corps-Iraq Command and Control Coalition Analysis and Control Element.
“The word on the street should not be ignored as simple hearsay, even though much of it is obviously false. It helps shape Iraqi opinions and perceptions,” states the Mosquito.
“In Iraq, rumors travel through the streets quickly and are accepted by many, educated and uneducated alike, to be the absolute truth,” states the document.
In fact, Saddam Hussein had a department of his intelligence service specifically dedicated to spreading rumors.
Rumsfeld last week acknowledged the violence and growing tension in Iraq, but said it is being offset by Iraqi government leadership.
“The leadership being shown by the Iraqi security forces, by the Iraqi government officials in the wake of these attacks against the shrine has to be seen as encouraging, despite the apparent unwillingness of some to accept it,” he said March 7.
The group polled by the Skeeter staff suggests Iraqis are not encouraged.
“In unanimity the group responded that the crisis is not over. The primary reason for this is, as (of) last week, … there are those on both sides of the sectarian extremes that continue to inflame the situation between Shiites and Sunnis. They specifically mentioned (Abdul Aziz) Al Hakim and (Moqtada) Al Sadr on the Shiite side and Harith Al Dhari on the Sunni side,” the document states.
It may be a chicken and egg question: do Iraqis increasingly fear civil war because that is what news outlets in Iraq and elsewhere forecast is coming? Or do their fears shape news coverage?
The March 10 Skeeter offers fodder for both sides: the Iraqi street is rife with suspicion about American intentions and actions in Iraq, some of which find its genesis in newspapers. But much of it seems to be generated organically within the country.
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