In response to an article published earlier about the threat that the PAK-FA presents to US air superiority as well as that of US allies, the PAK-FA hardly presents a short-mid term credible threat. The article attacks the closure of the F-22 production line conveniently ignoring that the F-22 was never meant for export to begin with, and even if the production line had remained open export was not likely.
The notion that a 5th generation fighter jet can be operated by a non-state actor, such as Hezbollah, or can be used for terrorism is ludicrous. The support infrastructure alone, to keep the fighter operational, would be an un-shoulderable burden for anyone without access to secure modern basing facilities, and billions of dollars in funds. The fear that rogue or hostile to the US states are likely to acquire the fighter in the near future is similarly unfounded. As it stands the project is a joint venture between Russia and India, and those two air forces (with a combined order estimated at ~500 aircraft) will have priority. Given that production is only starting in 2015, and even that may get pushed back, production slots for 3rd parties won’t be open until ~2025.
It’s similarly unlikely that the plane will be exported to China, which is currently trying to develop an indigenous 5th generation fighter program. Likely export customers will be fairly rich countries with a practice of using Russian military equipment, and the funds to purchase very expensive 5th generation fighters.
Additionally the capabilities of the PAK-FA will compare rather unfavorably in many areas with not only the F-22, but also the F-35. The AESA radar to be used on the PAK-FA is only set to undergo flight testing in 2011. The USAF has been operating AESA radars on late 4th generation fighters for years now, with several generations of these radars. The first Russian serial AESA radar will go into the PAK-FA. Similarly reducing the detectability of the aircraft through technological means is something the US has done for decades. For Russia this is practically a first. More significantly the support assets and experience of reducing the enemies situational awareness to allow aircraft to carry out strike missions is absent.
In short the PAK-FA is not a credible threat to USAF air dominance against any potential export customers air forces. It is a major asset to the VVS (Russian Air Force) as it represents not only a replacement for outdated Soviet era fighters, but also a major step in the direction of net-centric warfare. It offers increased horizontal communications between multiple PAK-FA fighters, as well as the PAK-FA and ground-based systems. It represents also an opportunity to remain competitive internationally as the F-35 looms on the horizon, and Flanker upgrades sales can only last so long. In short the PAK-FA may mean a lot in terms of competing for global fighter markets, and certainly means everything to the VVS’s ability to remain relevant in the regional as well as global context. However its export and proliferation do not constitute a credible deterrent or even threat to US air dominance.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s (Iouri Synogatch) and do not necessarily represent those of DefenceTalk.
