Agence France-Presse,
Moscow: Russian President Vladimir Putin's offer to share a radar station in Azerbaijan with the United States for missile defence is aimed at wresting back the initiative in a strategic tug-of-war, analysts said Friday. Putin's proposal at the Group of Eight (G8) summit in Germany on Thursday reflected a very different view of global security from Washington's and one that showed increasing wariness of US intentions.
Russia has insisted that any efforts to build new anti-missile systems should be a matter of joint efforts that would protect the wider European continent.
Moscow remains deeply sceptical about the current US plan to place interceptor missiles in Poland and elements of a linked radar system in the Czech Republic, both NATO members.
Reflecting this, analyst Ivan Safranchuk, of the Moscow office of the World Security Institute, said there was good reason to doubt Washington's claims that its plans are aimed only at “rogue states” and not at Russia.
In the short-term Moscow is particularly worried that the radar in the Czech Republic would peer deep into Russian territory, he said.
“Russia wants to be sure that the system will not have a dual purpose and will be targeted only against the Middle East. The location in Azerbaijan is a guarantee,” he said.
The system proposed by the United States on the other hand “will be operational in the Czech Republic and Poland for 30 years…. Even if we believe Bush, who can give a promise on 30 years?”
“It's absolutely silly to say: 'Trust us because we're friends.'”
Others however were much more sceptical of Putin's plan, saying that the vast Soviet-built radar in Azerbaijan would be useless against missiles fired from that country's southern neighbour, Iran.
An analyst at the Moscow office of the US-based Heritage Foundation, Yevgeny Volk, said that Putin's initiative was “mainly propogandistic and political” and aimed at increasing the so far muted resistance to the US proposals found in some west European countries.
He added that the initiative was unlikely to persuade the United States to drop its plans for the Czech Republic and Poland.
“I can hardly believe America will give its assent. The proposal is drafted in such a way that America will reject it,” he said.
Meanwhile independent defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer pointed to numerous problems with the Russian proposal.
The radar at Gabala in Azerbaijan is not equipped to link up with interceptor missiles, being designed to monitor US military activity further afield, he said.
It would also be highly vulnerable to any attack from Iran, being a vast stationary structure 16 stories high, and due to its stationary position is not even able to see into all corners of Iran, he said.
“Readings from the radar won't help them. The radar provides information that the United States already has,” said Felgenhauer.
The Russian plan contradicts the US “ideology” on missile defence, which is to start work on an interception system in order to discourage Iran from developing long-range missiles in the first place, he said.
Doubts were also voiced in Brussels on Friday by NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.
“It's a bit early to judge if an Azeri radar could do, and could be the answer to the threats. I think it's a bit close to the 'rogue states' we are discussing,” he said at a security conference in Brussels.
In Azerbaijan itself, Putin's plan received an initial welcome on Friday, with Baku saying it was ready for talks.
But Moscow and its former Soviet satellite Azerbaijan have increasingly been at odds and cooperation may not be easy.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded from his father in 2003, “is much more pro-Western than his father. He's interested in cooperation with Turkey and the United States,” said Volk.
“The balance is mainly on (Moscow's) side but it's shifting to America. Azerbaijan understands in defending its national security interests it can hardly rely on Russia,” Volk said, explaining that Moscow is closely allied to Armenia, with which Azerbaijan fought a brutal war in the 1990s.
