The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

STURM

Well-Known Member
Presumably they still hope for a negotiated settlement that salvages the LDNR, and the future of Crimea. I believe they think they can bring that about with enough success on the battlefield which is true in principle but I suspect is wholly unrealistic at this point.
What they can realistically achieve as part probably negotiated settlement would depend on what they actually hold. At worst case scenario for the Russians; do you think they can actually hold on to what they held in the Donbas prior to the invasion?

In the event that things gets really bad to the extent that the Crimea becomes untenable would this be something that Putin could politically survive?

I suspect neither the US nor Ukraine are
.

For the moment they are certainly not because things are going their way. If however things drag on indefinitely with no end in sight it's not inconceivable that Ukraine's backers might start looking for a negotiated way out; the Ukraine being obliged to make certain - minor - concessions which the Russians would eagerly accept.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
What they can realistically achieve as part probably negotiated settlement would depend on what they actually hold. At worst case scenario for the Russians; do you think they can actually hold on to what they held in the Donbas prior to the invasion?
I mean... the worst case scenario would be, Putin gets assassinated, civil war breaks out, and the Grand Duchy of Moscow nukes the Kazan Khaganate. You'll have to be more specific.

In the event that things gets really bad to the extent that the Crimea becomes untenable would this be something that Putin could politically survive?
Good question. I suspect this depends on what road things go down to create this outcome. I suspect nuclear weapons and mobilization will be on the table before Russia is willing to give up Crimea.

For the moment they are certainly not because things are going their way. If however things drag on indefinitely with no end in sight it's not inconceivable that Ukraine's backers might start looking for a negotiated way out; the Ukraine being obliged to make certain - minor - concessions which the Russians would eagerly accept.
Ukraine's backers are numerous but some of them have far more weight then others. If the US isn't willing to push Ukraine, I suspect nothing the rest of them do will force the issue. And while Russia has inflicted serious reciprocal economic pain on Europe, it has done far less to the US.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There are reports coming in of Ukrainian attacks on the Seversk area, as well as continuing attempts to push into Liman. Also there are reports of Ukrainian troops preparing for an offensive in Zaporozhye and Ugledar area. It remains to be seen how this plays out. Russian forces are still trying to push on Artemovsk/Bakhmut from the south.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I mean... the worst case scenario would be, Putin gets assassinated, civil war breaks out, and the Grand Duchy of Moscow nukes the Kazan Khaganate. You'll have to be more specific.
Sorry, what I meant was that a worst case scenario could possibly see Russia losing all of its territorial gains from the invasion and reaching a point where it's even struggling to hold on to the territory it has held in the Donbas from before the invasion.
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
I find the Kalibre strikes on civilian infrastructure a poor military decision. We have seen data point after data point regarding the dwindling numbers of PGMS of all types on the RU side. With the ongoing sanctions we’ve seem a lack of western components needed to replenish those stocks slowed until the RU can find new sources. Given the tactical sit in the North and South and the collapsing units, it would be more imperative to strike at military targets at the deep area and more stategially vs civilian targets. Poor command decisions IMO to inflict impacts on the civilian populace vs military impact.

Makes one wonder
 
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Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
There are reports coming in of Ukrainian attacks on the Seversk area, as well as continuing attempts to push into Liman. Also there are reports of Ukrainian troops preparing for an offensive in Zaporozhye and Ugledar area. It remains to be seen how this plays out. Russian forces are still trying to push on Artemovsk/Bakhmut from the south.

AgreeD
 

Attachments

Ananda

The Bunker Group
He's corrupt, but not in Putin's class. And where's the evidence that Zelensky's in that category? He's no billionaire. He's a new politician in a corrupt country, which almost always entail having to make compromises, so be realist
banning supporters of the country that's just invaded you from politics is wrong? Since when? What next? It's wrong to resist armed rebels? Come on! How can you compare that to what Putin does!
Those what you just put is intials step of any wannabe authoritarian figures on consolidating power. Baning opposition by accusing them on national security threats is part of many wannabe dictators play book throughout times

Zelensky is basically eliminating opposition by base on their political stance, and using national emergency as an excuses to do that. Sorry, be realistic on that and not caught up in arguments of national war time and emergency actions. It's part of power consolidation.

Emergency situation whether war or civil unrest threats can not be using an excuse toward eliminating your opposition, period. Power is corrupts, and consolidating power by eliminate your opposition base is just part of initial move on that.

You can not compared the amount of power for someone who already consolidate power for years like Putin with someone who in initial steps on consolidating power. Putin and Zelensky has their own oligarchy behind them, that's making them coming from same cloth.

They come from same cloth because they are basically using any opportunities available to them for consolidating power. Wheather already establish authoritarian or wannabe ones, does not meant they are not coming from same cloth. That's realistic way on looking.

Note:
You are seems using arguments from Zelensky on accusing his opposition as actively support Russian invasion. This is an excuse build by him and his circles. Their opposition can not defend themselves because they already round up. If this's not a playbook of wanna be dictators, then be realistic to looking on how any dictators coming to power.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member

CNN mentions Kupiansk still being fought for rather than fully abandoned by the Russians.

"The result: an impression that Ukraine is effortlessly pushing Russian forces back from territory they've controlled for more than six months. The truth, inevitably for a war zone, is far less clear-cut. CNN was given exclusive access to the town of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, just a day after pictures emerged showing soldiers hoisting the Ukrainian flag on the roof of the town's municipal building. Far from being a town under full Ukrainian control, CNN found one still being bitterly fought for."

"At the edge of the town, Vasyl -- who declined to give his last name for security reasons -- tells us that for days "they (the Russians) were shelling and shelling" in the ongoing fight in Kharkiv.But on the ground, the fate of Kupiansk appears far from certain, indicating that maintaining Ukrainian control over newly liberated territory in the area could prove difficult"


It seems in some areas the Russians abandoned quantities of stuff [we have photos] and in some areas they didn't. In a recent Al Jazeera Inside Story discussion the Ukrainian speaker claimed that the stuff absorbed exceeded the quantity provided by the West.

"Within four days, Ukraine nullified four months of success of the Russian army that cost them a huge amount of victims,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a Russian expert at Germany’s University of Bremen, told Al Jazeera."

"But the speed and ease with which Ukraine regained control of the area that lies west of the Russian border and north of the separatist “Luhansk People’s Republic” are raising questions. The Russians abandoned next to no artillery or armoured vehicles, and their retreat from the heavily-fortified area did not look like a panicked flight that followed heavy fighting, according to videos from the area and Ukrainian military reports."

"But the retreat did not clog it up – and lasted days, not hours, Mitrokhin said. To him, this signifies a deliberate decision made in the Kremlin to leave the area and use the manpower and weaponry near separatist-controlled areas
."
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

CNN mentions Kupiansk still being fought for rather than fully abandoned by the Russians.

"The result: an impression that Ukraine is effortlessly pushing Russian forces back from territory they've controlled for more than six months. The truth, inevitably for a war zone, is far less clear-cut. CNN was given exclusive access to the town of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, just a day after pictures emerged showing soldiers hoisting the Ukrainian flag on the roof of the town's municipal building. Far from being a town under full Ukrainian control, CNN found one still being bitterly fought for."

"At the edge of the town, Vasyl -- who declined to give his last name for security reasons -- tells us that for days "they (the Russians) were shelling and shelling" in the ongoing fight in Kharkiv.But on the ground, the fate of Kupiansk appears far from certain, indicating that maintaining Ukrainian control over newly liberated territory in the area could prove difficult"

It's not fully abandoned. Russia is setting the new front line across the Oskol river. Kupyansk straddles the river. Russia holds the eastern part, Ukraine the wester.

It seems in some areas the Russians abandoned quantities of stuff [we have photos] and in some areas they didn't. In a recent Al Jazeera Inside Story discussion the Ukrainian speaker claimed that the stuff absorbed exceeded the quantity provided by the West.

"Within four days, Ukraine nullified four months of success of the Russian army that cost them a huge amount of victims,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a Russian expert at Germany’s University of Bremen, told Al Jazeera."

"But the speed and ease with which Ukraine regained control of the area that lies west of the Russian border and north of the separatist “Luhansk People’s Republic” are raising questions. The Russians abandoned next to no artillery or armoured vehicles, and their retreat from the heavily-fortified area did not look like a panicked flight that followed heavy fighting, according to videos from the area and Ukrainian military reports."

"But the retreat did not clog it up – and lasted days, not hours, Mitrokhin said. To him, this signifies a deliberate decision made in the Kremlin to leave the area and use the manpower and weaponry near separatist-controlled areas
."
That's because some of Russia's retreat was forced, and some was deliberate in light of the changing operational situation. This isn't to say that Russia could necessarily have held on to those areas, rather that in some places Russia had to withdraw while fighting a rear-guard action against advancing Ukrainian troops, and in other areas Russia had time to evaluate the feasibility of holding those positions, and make a deliberate withdrawal.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
I don't think we will see too many changes on the Kharkiv-Izium front now. Ukraine has gotten them selves a far more defensible location at a bargain price. Besides artillery and rocket strikes I don't see Ukraine trying to push across the river with winter coming. IMHO what advances do take place if any will be taking and securing Lyman and it's surrounding area. It will allow them to rest and replenish those forces, integrate captured equipment etc

Most of the ground fighting IMO will be towards the south. Has been alleged by Ukraine that some Russian forces in Kherson are negotiating surrendering their weapons though have read one article (will source it asap) of a Russian officer being all gung ho fighting to defend in his words a Russian city. So possibly they are making a dent in the supplies and moral but may also be up against some hard liners that could fight to the last bullet.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Correct of course but it would of involved sharing a whole page of postings belonging to other sites and people and I was not sure if this would of been acceptable my bad
Just provide the links and stop trying to dissemble.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Opposition to Putin is getting more serious in Russia. Municipal lawmakers in Moscow and St Petersburg are calling for him to step down, and in the case of St Petersburg, actually calling him a traitor. I am not sure where these stories originated, since western reporting has resorted to copy and paste so the same story appears everywhere.

Moscow: Moscow Municipal Lawmakers Demand Putin's Resignation

St Petersburg: Russian councillors call for Putin’s removal in daring anti-war protest
St Petersburg lawmakers face predictable response from the authorities. Apparently this was kind of an "I told you so" since they spoke out against the invasion in the beginning.

Of course. The authorities aren't going to let this go unpunished. They will have been invited to visit the local police station for a cup of tea with Constable Ivan Plod. Constable Plod would then explain to them the error of their ways using gentle persuasion before accompanying them to their luxury accommodation at the state's expense.
I have been puzzled by the unexplained fires and other damage in several areas of Russia. This group apparently has a Telegram channel and signs some of their work "BOAK".


Those two sources are not reliable sources. They are basically tabloids or worse and not known for their accuracy or reliability. It's the same reason why we don't accept the likes of Fox News, TASS, Xinhua, The Sun etc., as sources.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
It's not fully abandoned. Russia is setting the new front line across the Oskol river. Kupyansk straddles the river. Russia holds the eastern part, Ukraine the wester.

That's because some of Russia's retreat was forced, and some was deliberate in light of the changing operational situation. This isn't to say that Russia could necessarily have held on to those areas, rather that in some places Russia had to withdraw while fighting a rear-guard action against advancing Ukrainian troops, and in other areas Russia had time to evaluate the feasibility of holding those positions, and make a deliberate withdrawal.
The abandonment of lots of heavy equipment (e.g. AFVs) & ammunition suggests that in some areas withdrawal was not at all deliberate. More like in panic. Of course, that doesn't mean that was what happened generally.

To some extent, a river line could suit both sides. The Ukrainians may need to consolidate, & the Russians re-establish defensive positions.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It’s clear to see that NATO is a threat to Russia, I mean Ukraine is not yet a member and Russians are already dying.. why does Ukraine need to join NATO so badly? The Russians will be asking that question
Be very careful because you are sailing very close to being political. This could be construed as a political post and you are already skating on thin ice.
I hope Ukraine know exactly what they are doing because this whole taking back territory thing could be tricky, if the Russians bounce back and cut off them off from the rear, we are talking about hundreds of POWs
The Russians can't cut them off from the rear because they don't have the capability to mount a pincer attack large enough to envelope the Ukrainians. That's the standard Russian tactic for dealing with such a situation and usually they are very good at it.
The quicker Russia realize that they can never win this war, and pulls out, the better. Russia simply cannot win this war.

And don't even think about going to "tactical nuclear" -- NATO will then bomb Russia out of Ukraine (including Crimea) in less than a week. Those F-35s will be ready to take off on fairly short notice.
Based on what? Get real. If Russia was to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine it is not a given that NATO would intervene. Article V of the NATO Treaty would have to be triggered and Ukraine certainly can't trigger it. NATO would be loathe to start a nuclear war. Why do you think that it isn't directly involved in the war.

You are strongly advised increase the quality of your posts because you are posting some rubbish at the moment. Think seriously about your posts before you hit the send button. Yes it can be difficult to avoid being emotive, but you have to be.
Putin is ready for a very long war, the Russians know exactly what they dealing with and as you can see, they are ready to burn resources, both human and material
Putin isn't at all ready for a long war and the evidence on the battlefield fully supports this. The important thing to is that Russia's lost the momentum on the battlefield and Ukraine has it now almost in droves, but not quite which is good because that means that the Ukrainians will not be tempted to do a Patton and go for bust. They need to consolidate in the east and prepare for the inevitable counter offensive. It will come but I don't think that the Russians have the strength or means to put together what is required to succeed. Maybe in the spring, but definitely not before winter. Putin needs to replace his losses in both men and material and winter gives him time to do both. He needs to rain his men up properly.
If Russian leadership knew what they were dealing with, they wouldn't face massive reverses like these. And Russia is quite unwilling to burn human resources, hence the withdrawal rather then a bloody frontal battle. Russia is actually quite limited on manpower, and this shows.
Sorry Feanor it wasn't a withdrawal; it was a rout pure and simple. If it was a withdrawal they would've taken there equipment with them and destroyed what they couldn't take. Unfortunately for Mother Russia they did neither and ran with their tails between their legs, leaving behind valuable and usable equipment for the enemy including a near perfect RTU 518-PSM self-protection jamming pod from a crashed VVS Su-30SM, with the serial number RF-81773 and bort number Red 62, shot down near Izyum and not sufficiently recovered by Russian forces. Western intelligence will love that find.

I agree with the rest of your post though.
The US was drafting soldiers for Vietnam, and that did not really help did it. It all comes back to this: how important is it for the general Russian population to keep killing and looting in Ukraine? How many Russian lives are they willing to sacrifice for the lies of "denazification"?

You are delusional if you think that "Ukraine's willingness to fight" will begin to recede. Keep in mind they are fighting for their lives, for their existence. There are no stronger motivations than that.

Perhaps Ukrainians will lose the will to fight when Crimea is all that is left to fight about -- apart from that, they will keep going.
Do you really understand why the US lost the Vietnam war? It wasn't because of the draft. They drafted soldiers for both WW2 and Korea. They lost in Vietnam because they had politician playing at being Generals and Generals playing at being politicians. They underestimated their enemy, and they were arrogant. Most importantly of all, they lost the support of their own people. You actually understand far less than you think you do.
There is no reason to be condescending. I merely repeated what wise and experienced experts like Gen. Hodges have been saying for a long time.
Yes you are parroting but not understanding and that's the problem. You need to learn first and remember this is an international Forum so we have many different nationalities and cultures posting on here and it does extend to Moderators as well. That is one of the benefits of this forum because it gives us a diversity of opinions and thinkings. @STURM comes from a completely different culture to you and he has a different opinion about most things, but that's good because he backs his thinking up with logic. He also loves a good argument as well. He comes from an Asian Muslim nation and some of the best arguments I have seen on here are between and @Big_Zucchini who is Israeli and they are all very civil. Thank God both of them aren't Irish, Scots, or Maori (in my case) because all three peoples would be wanting to have fisticuffs probably after the second post. ;) Then there is my friend @Ananda I disagree with what he's saying WRT the Russo-Ukrainian War with it being one of the few things that he and I disagree on, but I have a lot of respect for Ananda. He's good people, Indonesian and again someone who is of a different culture. The same I would say about @Feanor although he's definitely not Indonesian. Last time I looked they didn't have big bears there.
Re the cutting of power to Ukranian cities is Crimea vulnerable to attacks on water supplies in retaliation
It has been suggested that the Russian missile attacks on electricity infrastructure is Russian retaliation for the rout of Russian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast.
Brass tacks. Hypothetically speaking an air arm flying Fulcrums and Frogfoots which are equipped with the right systems and ordnance and are linked to each other and to a AEW platform via data links would be superior to an air arm flying Eagles but at a platform centric level.

I'm aware that NATO air arms operate in a much more systems centric manner compared to the Russians ..
Actually, have the Russians been using their Mainstay AEW platforms at all? Surely they could be flying racetrack circuits inside the Russian border protected by VVS fighters.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Well; it's my opinion that to get a balanced picture or narrative we have to look at the various factors and dynamics at play affecting both sides in an objective dispassionate manner. Whether our sympathy or support is for one particular side is not the point.



Actually the determining factor would not be the platform per see but having certain tertiary capabilities; operating the platforms at a systems centric level and well incorporated with ground elements.

The failure of the Russians to gain mastery of the skies wasn't so much due to their platforms only but the fact that their air force was not structured or equipped to perform a strategic air campaign; more as flying artillery.

I've posted several links to excellent videos and articles on the air war in this thread.
Unfortunately that has been a Russian failing using the VVS as a tactical rather than a strategic air force. It's the mistake that Nazi Germany made with its Luftwaffe prior too and during WW2 tying the Luftwaffe doctrinally to the Heer (Army). The Red Army did the same prior to and during WW2 to great effect and even though they have built a strategic bomber force, it's more of a secondary capability than the main one. The VVS is still called Frontal Aviation and that explains it neatly. You will note that the PLA has moved completely away from that concept and now has the PLAAF which covers the complete air domain, along with the PLANAF.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Actually, have the Russians been using their Mainstay AEW platforms at all? Surely they could be flying racetrack circuits inside the Russian border protected by VVS fighters.
There was a report months ago which mentioned Mainstays operating from Belarus and from the Rostov area in support of the air campaign.

Hopefully Feanor will be able to add some light but if I'm not mistaken the Russians operate their AEW platforms in a different manner compared to the West; not so much for providing fighters with situational awareness and direction but more for general surveillance.

It's the mistake that Nazi Germany made with its Luftwaffe prior too and during WW2 tying the Luftwaffe doctrinally to the Heer (Army).
The Luftwaffe was built for short expeditionary wars; with a strategic function but primarily in support of ground operations. This was reflected in the type of aircraft operated and organisation; the largely self contained Luftflotten, Fliegerkorps, etc.

All was a fine for Spain, Poland, the Low Countries, Norway and France but was a major issue when the Luftwaffe was called to perform a strategic campaign over Britain. The closest it ever came to having a four engine strategic bomber was the He-177 which was expensive to construct and had major problems.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Of course. The authorities aren't going to let this go unpunished. They will have been invited to visit the local police station for a cup of tea with Constable Ivan Plod. Constable Plod would then explain to them the error of their ways using gentle persuasion before accompanying them to their luxury accommodation at the state's expense.

Those two sources are not reliable sources. They are basically tabloids or worse and not known for their accuracy or reliability. It's the same reason why we don't accept the likes of Fox News, TASS, Xinhua, The Sun etc., as sources.
Thank you for this info. Is there a list here of reliable and unreliable sources? I have looked for that, but have not yet found it.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The abandonment of lots of heavy equipment (e.g. AFVs) & ammunition suggests that in some areas withdrawal was not at all deliberate. More like in panic. Of course, that doesn't mean that was what happened generally.

To some extent, a river line could suit both sides. The Ukrainians may need to consolidate, & the Russians re-establish defensive positions.
Sorry Feanor it wasn't a withdrawal; it was a rout pure and simple. If it was a withdrawal they would've taken there equipment with them and destroyed what they couldn't take. Unfortunately for Mother Russia they did neither and ran with their tails between their legs, leaving behind valuable and usable equipment for the enemy including a near perfect RTU 518-PSM self-protection jamming pod from a crashed VVS Su-30SM, with the serial number RF-81773 and bort number Red 62, shot down near Izyum and not sufficiently recovered by Russian forces. Western intelligence will love that find.

I agree with the rest of your post though.
I want to clarify my point since I feel I haven't gotten it across. Russian forces fled, all out rout, in some areas of the battlefield. This threatened other areas with encirclement, or made them significantly less tenable/useful. Consequently, after the initial collapse of front lines around Balakleya, an ordered withdrawal took place in other sections of the front line.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Posting here as well because it's relevant.

Israeli company sold anti-drone systems to Ukraine via Poland. Israeli MoD reportedly knew about it but turned a blind eye.
Interestingly coincides with new evidence of Iranian drones in Ukraine.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Posting here as well because it's relevant.

Israeli company sold anti-drone systems to Ukraine via Poland. Israeli MoD reportedly knew about it but turned a blind eye.
Interestingly coincides with new evidence of Iranian drones in Ukraine.
Following your link, I find the first indication Ive seen of an Iranian drone in Ukraine.

 
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