The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[STURM]

Without strong will to win, do you really think the meager support from Pakistan would suffice to keep Taliban going for 20 years?

No but without various other enablers the Talibs could not have achieved all they did even if they had the will. That's the point I was driving at.

Back to the Russians; their troops are indeed mostly unmotivated; not understanding why they are even in the Ukraine. As this drags on however it's not inconceivable that some Russians may adopt the "my country; right or wrong" altitude and will be motivated to fight. Paradoxically as things worsen for them; it could lead to an improvement in the will to fight.

On another matter; amidst all this euphoria about the Ukraine's recent battlefield successes; we should not overlook the fact that despite being weak and overstretched; Russia still has a lot of combat potential left [unlike the Ukraine; Russia is still not even fully mobilised] and this war could drag on indefinitely.

 

[STURM]

I Am of African heritage and I can tell you NATO countries have done worst to us than anything u want to accuse Putin of.. they still doing it as we speak.. Why the double standards??

If your referring to Western colonialism/imperialism; this is a different issue altogether. Take Belgium for example; at one point the Congo was the personal property of the Belgian King and Congolese worked and died in horrible conditions to benefit their white overlords but this is a different issue to the subject in hand.

Why the double standards??

Like how Ukrainian refugees have been treated compared to the experience of African and Arab refugees? Like comparing the European response to the Ukraine compared to other conflicts which have seen greater human suffering? Such is the world we live in.

 

[Vivendi]

Interesting admission from Russian "Vostok" battalion commander Aleksandr Khodakovsy who, discussing potential mobilisation, says it's not going to solve essential issues including lack of reconnaissance and lack of EW. He says lack of manpower is a minor issue.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569241576223944705

Mark Hertling on restoring Russian manpower:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569077547505446912

In other news, 80% of power and water supplies have already been restored in the Kharkiv region.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569211054898528257

 

[Vivendi]

No but without various other enablers the Talibs could not have achieved all they did even if they had the will. That's the point I was driving at.

Of course, and that's why Gen. Hodges says there are two important factors not just one: will and logistics.

Back to the Russians; their troops are indeed mostly unmotivated; not understanding why they are even in the Ukraine. As this drags on however it's not inconceivable that some Russians may adopt the "my country; right or wrong" altitude and will be motivated to fight. Paradoxically as things worsen for them; it could lead to an improvement in the will to fight.

On another matter; amidst all this euphoria about the Ukraine's recent battlefield successes; we should not overlook the fact that despite being weak and overstretched; Russia still has a lot of combat potential left [unlike the Ukraine; Russia is still not even fully mobilised] and this war could drag on indefinitely.

Of course, things can change, I merely pointed out the most likely development the way I (and several experts) see it. And to repeat myself it's still completely open how long this war will drag on. It's really up to Russia how long they want to keep going. It can take several years.

Russia does not have "a lot of combat potential left" at present. It would take a long time to mobilize and it would also take some time to move to a full war time economy. It's also a very open question if Putin would be able to galvanize support for such moves. I believe the answer is no and I suspect Putin shares this opinion -- if not, Putin would already have made those steps.

 

[STURM]

Interesting admission from Russian "Vostok" battalion commander Aleksandr Khodakovsy who, discussing potential mobilisation, says it's not going to solve essential issues including lack of reconnaissance and lack of EW. He says lack of manpower is a minor issue.

In his unit maybe but we know for an absolutely fact that manpower issues are a major problem for the Russians. We know that some IFVs had only two dismounts; that some sections had 2-3 men, etc.

 

[Ananda]

Ukraine has had men & women queueing up to volunteer. Where are the Russians doing that? And do you really think Zelensky, or even the likes of Poroshenko, are cut from the same cloth as Putin? Get real!

First of all the arguments that I'm talking in here not Russian, but Ukranian seperatist that fight with Russian now. Their motivation is going to be different with Russian voluenteers that Putin send.

Second, yes I do believe they are coming from same cloth. Putin is just already staying in power much longer. However when you come from corrupt system and environment, then it is just matter of time before they are acting the same.

Zelenskiy Signs Law Banning Pro-Russian Political Parties In Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a new law banning pro-Russian political parties.

www.rferl.org

“One less traitor”: Zelensky oversees campaign of assassination, kidnapping and torture of political opposition | MR Online

While claiming to defend democracy, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky has outlawed his opposition, ordered his rivals’ arrest, and presided over the disappearance and assassination of dissidents across the country.

mronline.org

Put this two different articles on Zelensky approach on opposition. Regardless what his claim, it is another Putin in making. So yes I do get get real on this comparison.

 

[STURM]

Russia does not have "a lot of combat potential left" at present..

The conscripts aside; the Russians still have uncommitted combat units [irrespective of not fully up to strength]; still have stocks of kit and munitions [even if depleted] and still has a military industrial complex which is weakened but not completely out of the picture due to Western sanctions.

If we want to talk about the war's continuation; a fuller narrative would include not just the weak, demoralised and overstretched Russian part but also the Ukrainians. They too have taken a major hammering and they too will might in the long run face sustainment issues despite all the Western aid.

 

[Vivendi]

In his unit maybe but we know for an absolutely fact that manpower issues are a major problem for the Russians. We know that some IFVs had only two dismounts; that some sections had 2-3 men, etc.

Manpower may be a bigger issue in other units but it does not change the fact that Russia has severe issues with recon, EW, etc. Thus, just adding more soldiers will not solve these other fundamental issues.

 

[Vivendi]

The conscripts aside; the Russians still have uncommitted combat units [irrespective of not fully up to strength]; still have stocks of kit and munitions [even if depleted] and still has a military industrial complex which is weakened but not completely out of the picture due to Western sanctions.

If we want to talk about the war's continuation; a fuller narrative would include not just the weak, demoralised and overstretched Russian part but also the Ukrainians. They too have taken a major hammering and they too will might in the long run face sustainment issues despite all the Western aid.

Ukraine has in the last few days recovered significant amounts of equipment, ammo and fuel from fleeing Russian forces.
Jimmy on Twitter: "Another absolutely crazy thread showing the astonishing amount of heavy military equipment abandoned by the Russians as they ran for their lives in Kharkiv..." / Twitter

There are no indications that "the West" is reducing support to Ukraine -- on the contrary. In the latest Ramstein meeting more than fifty countries participated and pledged their support for Ukraine. More details of the outcome of this meeting will be published in the coming days and weeks. Results of meeting of Ukraine's allies at Ramstein - Ukrainian World Congress

 

[STURM]

Am not even talking about slavery and colonialism… just look at the way Ghadafi was killed and Libya allowed to turn into a gangsters paradise intentionally, the WEST is robbing Africa dry till date and it seems to be alright with everyone.. for some reason the liberal western media is completely blind to western atrocities in Africa and other places but they want me to care about Ukraine… see why some countries in the global south don’t support the west or chose to be neutral

I get where you're going with this. There is a lot of selective amnesia; double standards and hypocrisy on the part of those who preach democracy, human rights and rule based order but we're going down a rabbit hole and this thread is on the Russian/Ukrainian war.

 

[STURM]

Manpower may be a bigger issue in other units but it does not change the fact that Russia has severe issues with recon, EW, etc. Thus, just adding more soldiers will not solve these other fundamental issues.

It also doesn't change the fact that Russian EW was initially not deployed as should be [for various reasons] and at times was not as effective as assumed but overall has been pretty effective [especially with regards to disrupting comms and UASs]; which the Ukrainians in the past have acknowledged - I posted some links many pages back.

Part of the reason in the performance of Russian EW is that the Ukrainians learnt from the prevous Donbas campaign.

Adding more manpower certainly does not solve many issues [you merely stated the obvious] but it will go a long way in mitigating various issues: issues we know are related to a shortage of manpower.

 

[Vivendi]

Adding more manpower certainly does not solve many issues [you merely stated the obvious] but it will go a long way in mitigating various issues: issues we know are related to a shortage of manpower.

Perhaps not as much as you like to think -- as Mark Hertling pointed out in his tweet I linked to above, just restoring manpower does not automatically mean that capability is being restored. They need proper training, a structure, etc.

 

[Vivendi]

Second, yes I do believe they are coming from same cloth. Putin is just already staying in power much longer. However when you come from corrupt system and environment, then it is just matter of time before they are acting the same.

If Ukraine is sliding back into corruption and undemocratic processes, then they will never be allowed into EU (or NATO for that matter). Getting rid of corruption is extremely hard, and developing a functioning democracy is also very hard. "The West" must give Ukraine a chance to evolve. Giving up on them at this stage is not helping them, it's dooming them. Exactly what Russia (and China) is hoping for. They both see democracy and reduced corruption as major threats. For Europe it's the opposite. Thus, we must keep fighting and keep supporting democracy and anti-corruption activities.

 

[vikingatespam]

That's why I said on one of my previous posts everything is in fluids now. Yes they can try to do what they are doing in Kharkiv-Izium. However they have not achieve that stage yet. It can change toward their direction, however still also can change toward Russian.

However this is just my opinion, that I do sense Russian have stronger resiliences in that southern front because they have stronger motives to safe guard Crimea. Again this is only my opinion, and have to be seens how this is goingbto translate on how much reserve the Russian going to pour on that front.

Same thing to say that it is too early to say Ukranian can not replicate what they done in Kharkiv-Izium front. It is also too early to say Russian line is collapsing everywhere. Ukraine gain momentum in one front, but again not guarantee they can do on other front yet. Just my two cents.

A claim from liveuamap.com

Spokesperson of Operation command "South": some Russian units at Kherson frontline negotiating surrendering their weapons Mykolaiv - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Spokesperson of Operation command "South": some Russian units at Kherson frontline negotiating surrendering their weapons. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including...

liveuamap.com

is that some RU units are negotiating to lay down their arms (and presumably walking away). I have heard this claim from a few other places (such as Project Owl Discord), but havnt seen anything more official yet.

Otherwise, RU troops on the N side of the Dnepr are going to surrender, swim or die. its only amatter of time.

 

[STURM]

Perhaps not as much as you like to think -- as Mark Hertling pointed out in his tweet I linked to above, just restoring manpower does not automatically mean that capability is being restored. They need proper training, a structure, etc.

I'll repeat what I previously said - "Adding more manpower certainly does not solve many issues [you merely stated the obvious] but it will go a long way in mitigating various issues: issues we know are related to a shortage of manpower". Self explanatory.

You made reference to experts; I can do the same if you'd like; on the point that manpower is a major problem for the Russians.

 

[Ananda]

You want to blame Putin when the west are masters of carving and breaking up countries.. there were massive celebrations in western capitals when Ghadafi died, now look at Libya.. u must be so happy

@Atunga just friendly reminder, as Sturm point out this is Russian-Ukraine thread. Talking about double standard on other global issue can easily spiral down to rabbit hole. That's why the mods in here bit sensitive on debates that goes to far on that direction. I suggest to let it go the talk on double standard especially outside Russian-Ukranian issue.

Otherwise, RU troops on the N side of the Dnepr are going to surrender, swim or die. its only amatter of time.

Will see about that. This moment Pro Ukranian sites and Western sites full of talk on collapsing Russian line. While off course Pro Russian sites talk otherwise. Let's see how the real development, it will come out sooner anyway. The Russian sites will talk about that in the end if already happen. By then we know which one is real as both sides collaborate the info.

If Ukraine is sliding back into corruption and undemocratic processes, then they will never be allowed into EU (or NATO for that matter).

Do West already done that ? You can argue Zelensky and Ukranian Political system going toward democracy path. For me the way they're treating legitimate opposition by claiming them 'traitors' and threat to National security is just too far on other direction. That's why I still say both Moscow and Kviv still coming from same cloth.

It is just there's no Ukrainian politicians that have got chances as Putin done in consolidate power. People in West taking on Yeltsin time as moment of Russian democracy. In the end it is just another cycles of Oligarchy power positioning. Kviy also have their own oligarchy.

 

[vikingatespam]

Depends on what your definition of a "win" is and what the Russian definition is. You could be right but I'll wait and see. This might not end they way you think or hope it will.



But the narrative won't end there. Russia will retaliate and eventually but surely the war will spread with the likelihood of further nuclear employment. Doubt you need any reminders of how WW1 and 2 [both started out as European affairs] erupted; things rapidly spiralling out of control with catastrophic consequences. If nukes start flying; it won't matter who was right or wrong; nor will stuff like democracy, freedom and self determination because Europe and Russia will cease to exist.

I hope that as long as UKR does not present a threat to RU proper (Crimea is a tricky issue), then Putin will be unable/unwilling to call for general mobilization, or other escalations.

Otherwise, there should come a point where even the most militaristic RU general cannot avoid the reality that the RU army in Ukraine is finished.

 

[Vivendi]

Do West already done that ? You can argue Zelensky and Ukranian Political system going toward democracy path. For me the way they're treating legitimate opposition by claiming them 'traitors' and threat to National security is just too far on other direction. That's why I still say both Moscow and Kviv still coming from same cloth.

It is just there's no Ukrainian politicians that have got chances as Putin done in consolidate power. People in West taking on Yeltsin time as moment of Russian democracy. In the end it is just another cycles of Oligarchy power positioning. Kviy also have their own oligarchy.

Ukraine is in an extreme situation now, with a full-scale war at their hands. Zelensky currently enjoy support as a war time leader. After the war we will see what he does: either he steps down, or he has democratic elections, or (as you claim) he will cling to power. It's way too soon to tell how Ukraine will develop after the war.

They do have oligarchs in Ukraine, just like in Russia. There is however a strong effort to get rid of them. Time will tell if they are more successful in Ukraine than in Russia. Also keep in mind that there was a democracy process in Russia however this democracy process was terminated by Putin and his cronies. It could have developed differently. Alas the anti-democratic forces in Russia were too strong, at least in the previous round.

Look at how many other parts of the USSR empire have developed into democracies. They are not perfect and not completely free of corruption but still most of Eastern Europe has made tremendous progress. It's not set it stone that Ukraine will fail.

 

[Ananda]

is in an extreme situation now, with a full-scale war at their hands. Zelensky currently enjoy support as a war time leader. After the war we will see what he does: either he steps down, or he has democratic elections, or (as you claim) he will cling to power. It's way too soon to tell how Ukraine will develop after the war.

Well you can argue on that. However I remember how similar situation being done by my own 'beloved' dictactor in second half of the 60's. Being practically destroy and eliminate not just communist but anything that consider too 'left'. All in the name of emergency and restoration of order. Similar thing done by Pinochet in Chile. All under watchful eyes from the West.

I'm not going to talk more on the comparison, as it is very easy to turn to political debates. However just point out enough example on historical time line shown what Zelensky done is basically shown enough part of authoritarian power consolidation 101 play book.

Again I have no intention to turn the debate on this thread on political issue. Just want to shown why I still see both Kviy and Moscow coming from same cloth.

 

[Vivendi]

I'm not going to talk more on the comparison, as it is very easy to turn to political debates. However just point out enough example on historical time line shown what Zelensky done is basically shown enough part of authoritarian power consolidation 101 play book.

Again: Ukraine is in a war time position. Let's wait and see what he does after the war. If you are right and if he remains in power without elections it does not change the fundamentals: That Ukraine has many people that are fighting for democracy and less corruption. Whether they will prevail or not, let's just wait and see. First, Ukraine has a war to win.