The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Nothing that I have found yet my self. but based off of remarks of getting certain things done before the winter I would say that winter will see most offensive operations put on the back burner except for operations of opportunity. Both sides have varying levels of issues performing in this conflict in good weather, through in winter and just asking for trouble. It will largely be the time when both sides are resting and refitting and to see which side can do it better and quicker.
Look in a history book. For convenience, start with Napoleon. Work your way to the present and consider WW2. The terrain is much the same and the off road difficulties have scarcely changed in over 200 years. Decent road and rail- where they exist at this time- are some help but modern weapons make it hazardous to move large quantities of people and goods on a relatively easily targeted route. Yes that puts a strain on logistics for BOTH sides.
Or, take the repeatedly given advice you've been getting and read back through this thread. It's been a frequent matter of discussion AND has the advantage of not pissing off the people you expect to do your research for you while learning a lot about the *specific* routes and obstacles each side will need to use in various circumstances.
oldsig
(Now *I* am also too lazy to search for you )
I'm not asking for specific research or such but would think that perhaps discussion might address such obviously as has been seen troops dug into bare holes in the ground are not going to fare well in a bitter wi ter Logistical supplies have been interrupted for Russian forces making supply lines difficult I don't know when or if the Ukranian forces will be supplied by winter uniforms in large numbers
I can recall that Russian tanks in WW2 with their wider tracks fared better in soft ground than German tanks but that could be a generalisation I'm not sure how much of modern military transport is designed with Russian heavy mud and freezing temperatures in mind
@seaspear
Seriously .... what point are you trying to make. Since both Ukraine and Russia are using a lot of the same equipment the prevarication with track widths and ground pressure is irrelevant. Can you please contribute to the discussion in a meaningful way. If you had discussed the effectiveness of the logistical arrangements on both sides this would have been relevant.
Green for the time being but please improve your posts.
alexsa
@seaspear
Seriously .... what point are you trying to make. Since both Ukraine and Russia are using a lot of the same equipment the prevarication with track widths and ground pressure is irrelevant. Can you please contribute to the discussion in a meaningful way. If you had discussed the effectiveness of the logistical arrangements on both sides this would have been relevant.
Green for the time being but please improve your posts.
alexsa
NATO will provide the Ukrainian military with winter uniforms
To put any worries, misinformation or guess work aside. The Ukrainian defence minister oleksii rosnikov already wrote to NATO at the end of July to request such with several members apparently already looking into what they had. The request was for clothing, shelter etc for 200,000 military personnel with so far the USA, Sweden, Finland, Canada and Denmark already delivering or promising such items to cover about 50% of the needs. That was pre recent success so I imagine that they will be willing to go the extra mile and make sure they get 100% coverage.
This will keep the forces alive but it won't necessarily allow them to perform anything more then skirmishes. Keeping warm to fight another day and being able to advance in freezing temperatures with snow up to your waist with a stable supply line that can move with you under those conditions two very different things.
It will be several months of waiting, if the Ukrainians are lucky Russia will try and attack, will wear them out more. But Ukraine should sit pretty in their now more stable positions resting, training, arming and repairing everything they can.
To put any worries, misinformation or guess work aside. The Ukrainian defence minister oleksii rosnikov already wrote to NATO at the end of July to request such with several members apparently already looking into what they had. The request was for clothing, shelter etc for 200,000 military personnel with so far the USA, Sweden, Finland, Canada and Denmark already delivering or promising such items to cover about 50% of the needs. That was pre recent success so I imagine that they will be willing to go the extra mile and make sure they get 100% coverage.
This will keep the forces alive but it won't necessarily allow them to perform anything more then skirmishes. Keeping warm to fight another day and being able to advance in freezing temperatures with snow up to your waist with a stable supply line that can move with you under those conditions two very different things.
It will be several months of waiting, if the Ukrainians are lucky Russia will try and attack, will wear them out more. But Ukraine should sit pretty in their now more stable positions resting, training, arming and repairing everything they can.
Exonian
Member
The situation will clearly be different across Ukraine depending on how active the 'front line' is, and also the relative remoteness of the battle ground from the main bases of each side.
However here in the UK the BBC reports earlier in the conflict carried a number of reports of Russian troops begging/requesting food from the folk they thought they were liberating because Russian army supplies were not available. On the Ukraine side there was film footage of hot food and fresh bread being brought up to near the fighting by local people.
Russian preparation for this conflict has already been shown to be very poor, and there is no reason for me to assume they had made advance planning for a winter campaign.
Edit - I would think that in the Donbas Region the two sides would be facing similar problems as winter sets in. However if Ukraine is able to keep up the pressure on the Dneiper crossing points for the next few months then Russian forces in the Kherson pocket on the west bank of the river are likely to have a very uncomfortable winter - if they are not withdrawn by then
cheers
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #4,828
Update.
Nikolaev-Kherson-Krivoy Rog.
Russian sources confirm continuing combat in the salient around Sukhoi Stavok, no Russian counter-attacks so far.
Allegedly a Ukrainian supply truck with mortar shells destroyed, on the Kahovka axis, possible the salient.
t.me
Allegedly a Ukrainian T-64BV destroyed near Ivanovka, Krivoy Rog area. I honestly can't tell what tank that was.
t.me
t.me
Russian strikes on Ukrainian troops in Nikolaev region.
Ukrainian forces spotted riding Mastiff MRAPs, Kherson region, likely part of the preparation for the offensive that happened.
t.me
Ukrainian T-64BV/BM column, Kherson region. Note the mine trawls.
vk.com
Allegedly a bread line in Odessa.
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.
Lyubimovka village, Zaporozhye area. Russian volunteers visited it with aid. The village is basically forsaken, with locals left to fend for themselves. The Russian volunteers the lack of Russian state aid. I suspect this is symptomatic. For the cameras, humanitarian aid in newly taken areas. Once the public spotlight is gone, oblivion.
t.me
Artem Bardin, Rusian comendant of Berdyansk had his car blown up. Reportedly he's heavily wounded.
t.me
t.me
t.me
vk.com
vk.com
Kharkov-Sumy.
Allegedly Krasnopol' fires near Balakleya.
t.me
vk.com
Russian MLRS fires near Balakleya.
t.me
.
Russian airstrikes near Balakleya.
t.me
Two Russian T-90Ms, damaged, returning from Kharkov region to a repair facility. Note, this is before the recent offensive.
gurkhan.blogspot.com
vk.com
A destroyed bridge in Verbovka village, west of Balakleya, this is the prelude to the offensive.
t.me
Russian missiles strikes, Kharkov.
t.me
Ukrainian troops riding a BRDM-2 near Balakleya.
vk.com
Ukrainian troops reportedly on a road between Izyum and Balakleya.
t.me
LDNR Front.
Russian SpN apparently set up an mine between Peski and Vodyanoe, taking out an M113 and crew. Warning footage of corpses.
t.me
vk.com
Russian strike on Krasnogorvka, Donetsk region.
t.me
Russian strike on Kurakhovo, Donetsk region. Allegedly this was a staging area for artillery soldiers who recently completed their training and were heading to the front.
t.me
The seed factory near Peski is reportedly under DNR control.
t.me
LNR forces reportedly captured western mortar shells.
kenigtiger.livejournal.com
Russian mercenaries near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
vk.com
Russia.
Reportedly two Ukrainian Tochka-U missiles were shot down in Belgorod region.
t.me
vk.com
Tetkino village, Kursk region Russia, reportedly hit.
vk.com
Misc.
Russian/rebel mortarmen apparently firing on a Ukrainian SP Howitzer, location unclear.
t.me
A damaged Russian T-72B3, that apparently took 10+ hits and survived.
t.me
Russian sources indicate that Ukrainian military vehicles are often tagged with satellite comms that allow the vehicles to be tracked.
t.me
t.me
Improvised Ukrainian anti-material rifle made out of a KPVT.
vk.com
NATO/EU.
Reportedly Ukraine has received 5 Gepard AAA and COBRA counter-battery fire radars.
vk.com
Norwegian-supplied NM28 artillery shells, Ukraine.
vk.com
Nikolaev-Kherson-Krivoy Rog.
Russian sources confirm continuing combat in the salient around Sukhoi Stavok, no Russian counter-attacks so far.
Allegedly a Ukrainian supply truck with mortar shells destroyed, on the Kahovka axis, possible the salient.
Colonelcassad
На Каховском направлении, союзные силы присекли доставку боеприпасов для ВСУ. Грузовик с минами уничтожен. Источник: @Vakinshin
t.me
Allegedly a Ukrainian T-64BV destroyed near Ivanovka, Krivoy Rog area. I honestly can't tell what tank that was.
Dambiev
Уничтоженный возле н.п. Ивановка на Криворожском направлении украинский танк Т-64БВ . Координаты 47.488460, 33.333714
t.me
Центр Рубеж
Уничтоженный украинский танк Т-64БВ возле н.п. Ивановка на Криворожском направлении.
t.me
Russian strikes on Ukrainian troops in Nikolaev region.
Ukrainian forces spotted riding Mastiff MRAPs, Kherson region, likely part of the preparation for the offensive that happened.
ANNA NEWS
Вооруженные силы Украины начали применять британские броневики Mastiff Колонну лёгкой техники ВСУ с бронемашинами YPR-765 и БМП-2 сняли на границе Херсонской и Николаевской областей. Если быть точным, то Mastiff— это британская версия американских бронемашин MRAP Cougar 6×6. Великобритания...
t.me
Ukrainian T-64BV/BM column, Kherson region. Note the mine trawls.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Allegedly a bread line in Odessa.
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.
Lyubimovka village, Zaporozhye area. Russian volunteers visited it with aid. The village is basically forsaken, with locals left to fend for themselves. The Russian volunteers the lack of Russian state aid. I suspect this is symptomatic. For the cameras, humanitarian aid in newly taken areas. Once the public spotlight is gone, oblivion.
Марьяна Батьковна
t.me
Artem Bardin, Rusian comendant of Berdyansk had his car blown up. Reportedly he's heavily wounded.
Colonelcassad
Взорванная машина рядом с администрацией Бердянска. Как сообщают, подорвали машину коменданта города, сам он ранен и доставлен в госпиталь.
t.me
Colonelcassad
Взорванная машина коменданта Бердянска Артема Бардина. Сам он в тяжелом состоянии сейчас в госпитале. В очередной раз напоминаю, что в РФ по каким-то причинам СБУ и ГРУ МОУ до сих пор не признаны террористическими организациями.
t.me
Colonelcassad
Еще одно видео из Бердянска. До сих пор непонятно, что же там взорвалось. Звуки выстрелов, которые многие приняли за перестрелку, очевидно являются детонацией боекомплекта для стрелкового оружия. Власти сообщили о взорванном автомобиле комендатуры города и как минимум 1 раненом.
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Kharkov-Sumy.
Allegedly Krasnopol' fires near Balakleya.
РаZвед_ДоZор
Артиллерия группировки ZVO на Балаклейском направлении уничтожает вражескую технику снарядами "Краснополь" @razved_dozor
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian MLRS fires near Balakleya.
Colonelcassad
Ночная работа РСЗО ВС РФ на балаклейском направлении. Источник: https://t.me/razved_dozor/2179
t.me
Russian airstrikes near Balakleya.
WarGonzo
⚡️Эксклюзив⚡️ВКС РФ наносят удары по ВСУ под Балаклеей⚡️ Мы уже сообщали накануне, что неонацисты предприняли попытку контрнаступления на Харьковском направлении, а конкретно - на балаклейском участке фронта. Не смотря на тяжелые бои, нашим войскам накануне удалось сорвать планы противника. На...
t.me
Two Russian T-90Ms, damaged, returning from Kharkov region to a repair facility. Note, this is before the recent offensive.
Побитые российские "супертанки" Т-90М "Прорыв" выводятся с Украины (фото, видео)
gurkhan.blogspot.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A destroyed bridge in Verbovka village, west of Balakleya, this is the prelude to the offensive.
Colonelcassad
Подорванный мост через речку Крайняя Балаклейка. Это еще не Балаклея, а все тот же поселок Вербовка.
t.me
Russian missiles strikes, Kharkov.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️Ракетные удары нанесены по целям в Харькове и области, полыхают пораженные объекты врага t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
Ukrainian troops riding a BRDM-2 near Balakleya.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian troops reportedly on a road between Izyum and Balakleya.
Colonelcassad
Легкая пехота противника на дороге в районе Волохов Яра. Утверждают, что это в направлении на Изюм. На юг из Волохов Яра выходят 2 дороги - на Балаклею и на Изюм. Если видео подлинное, то это прозрачно намекает на то, что с юга Волохов Яр как минимум блокирован. Из самого Волохов Яра пока видео...
t.me
LDNR Front.
Russian SpN apparently set up an mine between Peski and Vodyanoe, taking out an M113 and crew. Warning footage of corpses.
Неофициальный Безсонов
#эксклюзив Между Песками и Водяным группа СпН армии ДНР организовала минную ловушку в результате чего был взорван бронетранспортёр ВСУ НАТОвского образца с экипажем и десантом внутри. @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian strike on Krasnogorvka, Donetsk region.
Неофициальный Безсонов
#эксклюзив Бомбовый удар ВКС РФ по позициям ВСУ в н.п.Красногоровка выглядит так @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV
t.me
Russian strike on Kurakhovo, Donetsk region. Allegedly this was a staging area for artillery soldiers who recently completed their training and were heading to the front.
Colonelcassad
В результате ночного удара ВС РФ по располаге украинских артиллеристов (новобранцы недавно закончившие подготовку) в Курахово уничтожено более 50 человек, еще несколько десятков получили ранения.
t.me
The seed factory near Peski is reportedly under DNR control.
Военкор Астрахань
Промзона Песок (семенная фабрика) и мосты взяты 11 полком и батальоном Сомали армии ДНР
t.me
LNR forces reportedly captured western mortar shells.
Как мало человеку надо для счастья
Почему этот человек так счастлив? А у него целых 63 причины для счастья. Да, мы нашли его подразделению 82-мм мины , правда не в ДНР, а в ЛНР и немного трофейные, но, думаю, покатят. И порохов тоже. Дядя Вова, добрый командир луганских резервистов, к которому мы заехали в больницу (ничего…
kenigtiger.livejournal.com
Russian mercenaries near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russia.
Reportedly two Ukrainian Tochka-U missiles were shot down in Belgorod region.
ZАПИСКИ VЕТЕРАНА
По сообщениям из приграничных Валуек и Волоконовки Белгородской области сегодня, в районе 15 часов нашей ПВО были сбиты 2 "Точки - У".
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Tetkino village, Kursk region Russia, reportedly hit.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Misc.
Russian/rebel mortarmen apparently firing on a Ukrainian SP Howitzer, location unclear.
Colonelcassad
Минометчики уничтожают САУ ВСУ. Точно набрасывают. Жалко не указывают направление, но по местности похоже на Херсонскую или Николаевскую область. Снято военкором "Известий" https://t.me/izvestia PS. Да, как верно уточняют, это скорее САУ - вроде польского "Краба" или немецкой "Панцергаубицы"
t.me
A damaged Russian T-72B3, that apparently took 10+ hits and survived.
Colonelcassad
Очередное свидетельство живучести российской бронетехники. Этот Т-72Б3 выдержал попадания 7-8 гранат из РПГ, двух ПТУР, одной ПТУР комплеса Javelin. Танк потерял озырёк и ящики, но экипаж вывел танк из-под обстрела своим ходом. Автор фото и описания: @garmaev_alexander
t.me
Russian sources indicate that Ukrainian military vehicles are often tagged with satellite comms that allow the vehicles to be tracked.
Неофициальный Безсонов
#эксклюзив Важно! Ранее я писал о том, что на военной технике ВСУ часто обнаруживаются "маячки". Вот фотоподтверждение. Это американская система автоматического распознавания и привязки к местности, которая передаёт сигнал на спутники. Компания Orbcomm это дочернее предприятие Orbital ATK...
t.me
Colonelcassad
На военной технике ВСУ установлена американская система автоматического распознавания и привязки к местности (маячки), которая передаёт сигнал на спутники: два коротких импульса каждые 15 минут, используя систему геопозиционирования GPS и местную сотовую связь с военной точностью геолокации на...
t.me
Improvised Ukrainian anti-material rifle made out of a KPVT.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
NATO/EU.
Reportedly Ukraine has received 5 Gepard AAA and COBRA counter-battery fire radars.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Norwegian-supplied NM28 artillery shells, Ukraine.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
You quoted BBC, lol. This western propaganda machines surely will project Russian army in bad conditions. Whose line of communication has been severely attacked? Just like they trumpeted the UA 'rout' in emptied Kharkiv front but kept quite about the severe losses in Kherson and Donest front.
Exonian
Member
I agree that I am probably seeing biased reporting from one side of this conflict. However I have read a little bit about military campaigns and enjoy studying maps - and the situation around Kherson is definitely not favourable to Russia while Ukraine retains the capability to disrupt Russian supplies across the Dneiper.
cheers
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Beyond conjectures, nothing. Consider weather to be a mobility multiplier.
If winter makes transportation more difficult, then good becomes bad, and bad becomes worse. So if Russia's logistical infrastructure is "worse" than Ukraine, Russia will suffer more, and vice versa. But that's a sort of a rule of thumb, so don't give it much weight.
I'm sure we'll see many surprises and effects that are so clear in hindsight, come winter. But for now, it doesn't seem like many people are even talking about it.
Careful sdin, you are letting your bias become extremely clear. Let's be honest, the forces directly at Kharkiv were not routed however everything east of chuhuiv was either routed or forced to retreat from hard thought gains otherwise they would have been routed with severe losses. As for whose lines of communication is under attack well at present Russia is suffering the worst of it or are you ignoring the bridges and pontoons getting destroyed by Ukraine in Kherson, or Ukraine launching long range missile strikes on every other front hitting logistics hubs, supplies and command and control centres. As for losses Donnets isn't clear on whose is higher while Kherson is still very fluid on how it will go. Some times you get high casualties and keep getting them , other times you start off high but they can lower as you remove the opposition's ability to fight effectively. You want to doubt western media that's fine we all do it often enough but make no mistake all media and governments around the world do it especially Russia.
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That is a very low quality post. BBC is considered credible. They are not without bias (everyone has one) but they back up their stories. You on the other hand merely made useless assertions about so-called Western propaganda machines.
If you have information about losses in Kherson and Donetsk, post the links. If you have information about lines of communications being attacked, post the freaking links. I have the greatest respect to what Feanor did with his compilation of Russian and Ukrainian info. Why don't you do something like that? You don't even have to cover the Ukrainian side if you wish. Feel free to just cover the Russian side.
Wow, so your bias is not clear?
The operations in Kherson and at almost stalemate. There were many reports of big casualties in Kherson. Routed? No unless you are using BBC terms.
However i found interesting post by Washington Post : https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
In Donest, the UA make some gains, but not now , even the Russian are advancing and occupying some territories in Bakhmut, but never reported by western media. I am picking up BBC as the worst propaganda machine, perhaps like what CNN did in WMD reporting.
I do believe you are talking about bezdorizhzhia (in Ukraine) or rasputitsa (in Russia). It was one of the things that affected the Russian invasion at the start, go back to then and will see a number of pictures of tanks and trucks stuck in the mud.
Which I my self had completely overlooked so thank you for bringing it up. Could very well lead to a situation in which up to 6 months from the start of winter advances by either side will be difficult at best if not impossible at times.
The Russians have been attacking Bakhmut/Artemivsk since the beginning of August, & still haven't captured it. I think there are no current reports of attacks because they've stopped.
Do you really think that's comparable to the great Ukrainian victory a short distance further north? The Russians spent 6 weeks taking a couple of sq km, & the Ukrainians took several thousand sq km in a few days, & you say not giving equal coverage to both makes the BBC "the worst propaganda machine". I'm afraid your biases are showing.
Exonian
Member
The conflict in the Donbas region is ongoing, there will be plenty on both sides who have experience of operations in winter. Both sides have established front lines and supply routes so will know what winter brings. This year there will be different though as the fighting is more intense, each side now has access to more firepower, but each side is also forced to commit more troops with lack of military experience.
In the south around Kherson neither side has experience of a winter campaign so far. Here the Russian supply lines are longer, and the advantage must surely lie with Ukraine as long as they can control the amount of Russian material crossing the Dneiper
cheers
In the south around Kherson neither side has experience of a winter campaign so far. Here the Russian supply lines are longer, and the advantage must surely lie with Ukraine as long as they can control the amount of Russian material crossing the Dneiper
cheers
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #4,839
There are reports of further attacks, Wagner fighters finally cleared Kodema and are advancing south of the town. I haven't gotten to it yet with my updates.
EDIT: To be clear here, we're talking about completing the clearance of a village, and seizing a hamlet.
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Yes, agreed. This is not about morale; it's much more than that. Factors like leadership (at 3 levels — at the generalship level, at the junior leadership level & at the NCO level), military training, national education, competence, & logistics support all contribute.
We are watching the decisive role these human factors play in war in Ukraine.
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