The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

STURM · Sep 11, 2022

OPSSG said:
The Ukrainian offensive to take back land in Kharkiv is the type of action that will be written about and analyzed for decades, as part of lessons learnt for war planners and even more interesting to me than the 1973 Yom Kippur War or the 1991 Desert Storm (due to its direct relevance to a 1990s style forward defence of Singapore). Part of the reason is because there is a deception plan that worked.

Agreed but for me the Ramadhan/Yom Kippur war and Desert Storm were different wars in a different period which offered slightly different lessons.

The war in the Ukraine [Ukrainian defending; both sides achieving mutual air denial; the use and limitations of EW; etc] is highly interesting] although it's still early days and the nature of the war can change; as well as the Azeri/Armenian war [the use of UASs and problems AD systems have in targeting UASs]; the 2006 clash between Hizbullah and Israel [innovative small unit tactics; the use of psychological ops, cyber attacks and phone tapping]; the Donbas campaign [the use of UASs at a tactical level by the Russians and the ability to create a recce/strike complex incorporating arty and MLRSs]; the Yemen war and certain actions undertaken by non state actors in Libya and Syria offer very interesting and valid lessons and is indicative of how war has evolved.

STURM · Sep 11, 2022

Russian forces retreat from key towns in Ukraine’s northeast

Russian state media says defence ministry ordered troops to leave the vicinity of Izyum, a key northeast Ukraine city.

www.aljazeera.com

The Russians have acknowledged the fall of Izyum and the "head of Russia’s administration in Kharkiv told residents to evacuate the province and flee to Russia to save lives”. A major embarrassment for the Russians and one they couldn't deny or downplay. There are reports of large ammo dumps and equipment having been abandoned. Whether the Russians are conducting an organised withdrawal with rear guard units playing an effective role [examples would be the Falaise and Korsun-Cherkassy pockets where withdrawals were largely organised and rear guards were effective] is unknown.

Whilst I understand that the Ukraine is in an existential fight and that some level of hubris is required; it's my personal opinion that they should tone things down a notch given that things are fluid: the Russians are not fully defeated yet and things could change.

"Ukrainian troops had also liberated Vasylenkovo and Artemivka in the Kharkiv region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his evening address on Saturday. The Russian army these days is demonstrating its best ability – to show its back,” he said"

"The Russian army is claiming the title of fastest army in the world … keep running!” Yermak wrote on Twitter later."

seaspear · Sep 11, 2022

There has been film footage of some the equipment left behind In Izyum included heavy assault guns and tanks with ammunition ,the Ukranian army will have to find a use for this as they did not have helpful farmers with tractors to dispose of this

swerve · Sep 11, 2022

OPSSG said:
Post 1 of 5: Ukrainian successes in Kharkiv Oblast & attempts to advance elsewhere

5. The 35 close air support sorties in the Kherson Area of Ops is evidence of intent… For the Russians, winter is coming — it promises to be miserable, unless China is willing to inject massive amounts of weapons and aid to Putin in the coming winter.

The Chinese may not be too unhappy with a beaten & humiliated, but intact, Russia. It will reinforce their primacy in the China-Russia relationship. For example a beaten & ostracised Russia will be more dependent on China both as a market & as a supplier, meaning better terms for China.

vonnoobie · Sep 11, 2022

seaspear said:
There has been film footage of some the equipment left behind In Izyum included heavy assault guns and tanks with ammunition ,the Ukranian army will have to find a use for this as they did not have helpful farmers with tractors to dispose of this

I know be unlikely to ever get accurate numbers but I would be curious to find out resource and personnel costs (injured, missing, KIA) vs the gains. Did the inflict more losses then they sustained in personnel, did they capture more equipment then they lost etc

STURM · Sep 11, 2022

swerve said:
The Chinese may not be too unhappy with a beaten & humiliated,.

At the same time they might also not want a Russia which is too weak because a Russia which still has some combat power left means the U.S. still has to focus on Europe rather than just the Asia Pacific.

vonnoobie · Sep 11, 2022

China will be looking at it from two angles. From a commerce perspective they will love it as it means Russia will have a more limited customer base gicing China more bargaining power while on the geopolitical side allying with Russia could directly effect relations with the EU, make the EU more inclined to stand against Chinese actions all which could harm the commerce the very thing that makes China so strong all to have a nation on their side which is suffering a plummet in reputation both in positive light and as a nation to be feared.

Besides resources Russia wont bring much to the table for China in a conflict if anything might cause problems. China isn't stupid (usually) so more likely they will stick to increased trade while increasing Chinese influence within Russia, Perhaps down the track relook at it but for now I dont see Russia and China being military allies.

STURM · Sep 11, 2022

vonnoobie said:
Besides resources Russia wont bring much to the table for China in a conflict if anything might cause problems.

For the first time since WW2 the U.S. faces major threats in both Europe and Asia from two countries. As long as Russia - no matter how weakened after recent events - retains its nuclear forces; strategic bombers and its sub fleet; it will always remain a threat and the U.S. will continue to focus on both Europe and Asia. This is where Russia finds itself useful to China.

vonnoobie said:
Perhaps down the track relook at it butfor now I dont see Russia and China being military allies.

More like partners of convenience; both having shared interests and concerns.

swerve · Sep 11, 2022

Indeed.

Russia's nuclear weapons would not be affected by a defeat in Ukraine. Indeed, they could become a greater focus, as the chief support of Russia's claim to be a great power.

Russia still has some technologies that China wants, e.g. metallurgy. IIRC Chinese jet engines are held back by turbine blades, though they're catching up, as everywhere.

ngatimozart · Sep 11, 2022

swerve said:
Indeed.

Russia's nuclear weapons would not be affected by a defeat in Ukraine. Indeed, they could become a greater focus, as the chief support of Russia's claim to be a great power.

Russia still has some technologies that China wants, e.g. metallurgy. IIRC Chinese jet engines are held back by turbine blades, though they're catching up, as everywhere.

Yes and Russia's sub fleet is nothing to be laughed at either. It's still far better than the PLAN sub fleet and both the VMF and VVS have supersonic bombers which neither the PLAAF nor the PLANAF have. Plus the Russia nuclear weapons stock far outweigh anything the the PRC has.

The advantage that the PLAN has over the VMF is modernity of its surface fleet and the fact that neither of its CV require an ocean going tug to accompany them.

At present the VMF are more experienced in blue water operations, fleet manoeuvres, combat operations etc., than the PLAN but that will change. In the recent VMF major Pacific Fleet exercise Vostok 2022 the Russians were talking up large numbers of ships exercising in the Sea of Oshtok, but all they could sortie was five corvettes and an electronics ship. The PLAN contributed a DDG, FFG and a replenishment ship.

seaspear · Sep 11, 2022

Ukranian forces are reported to be close to Lysychansk and perhaps targeting the city of Sievierodonetsk scene of heavy fighting earlier in the war , there is a claim of three thousand square kilometers claimed back from Russian forces also warehouses of artillery rounds that were left intact will be appreciated by Ukranian forces

@seaspear How about providing links. You know the rules.

ngatimozart · Sep 11, 2022

Some videos from Times Radio (UK).

Latest one from their correspondent in Kharkiv, stating that it appears that the Russian lines just collapsed. The Ukrainian capture of the rail centre severed the Russian logistics and made their position in Izium untenable. He also mentions the low morale of Russian forces.

This interview with Dr Mike Martin, an ex British Army officer is interesting. He suggests that Russia was doomed from the beginning and that the Ukrainians will win this. He believes that they will recover the whole of the Donbas, Lushank, and Crimea, pushing Russia back to its 2013 borders soon. I actually think that he's rather overly confident and maybe a bit gung ho about it. However we'll see. He also claims that there are UK & US officers embedded with Ukrainian officers at staff planning level; and that there are unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian forces operating around the Mariupol.

Discussion on Russian chip problems amongst other things with Maj Gen Chip Chapman

STURM · Sep 11, 2022

ngatimozart said:
He also claims that there are UK & US officers embedded with Ukrainian officers at staff planning level

I would be very surprised if SAS, SBS, Green Beret, SEALs and Delta Force chaps weren't actually on the ground in the Ukrainian providing training and other forms of assistance but of course far away enough from the frontlines to ensure they don't get captured. The capture of any serving service member of a NATO country would be somewhat problematic.

Ukraine forces advance to within 50km of Russia border

Ukraine says its forces have advanced north from Kharkiv to within 50km of the border with Russia.

www.aljazeera.com

Strong comments made by Kadyrov. Some one posted some news here not too long ago about him supposedly taking a break.
It also just occurred to me that there hasn't been much coverage on his Chechen fighters over the past month or so.

"Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-appointed leader of Chechnya and Putin ally whose troops have been at the forefront of the war in Ukraine, has conceded that the campaign was not going to plan."

"In an 11-minute-long audio message posted on Telegram Kadyrov said: “If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of the special military operation, I will be forced to go to the country’s leadership to explain to them the situation on the ground"'

Larry_L · Sep 11, 2022

Opposition to Putin is getting more serious in Russia. Municipal lawmakers in Moscow and St Petersburg are calling for him to step down, and in the case of St Petersburg, actually calling him a traitor. I am not sure where these stories originated, since western reporting has resorted to copy and paste so the same story appears everywhere.

Moscow: Moscow Municipal Lawmakers Demand Putin's Resignation

St Petersburg: Russian councillors call for Putin’s removal in daring anti-war protest

seaspear · Sep 11, 2022

seaspear said:
Ukranian forces are reported to be close to Lysychansk and perhaps targeting the city of Sievierodonetsk scene of heavy fighting earlier in the war , there is a claim of three thousand square kilometers claimed back from Russian forces also warehouses of artillery rounds that were left intact will be appreciated by Ukranian forces

@seaspear How about providing links. You know the rules.

Correct of course but it would of involved sharing a whole page of postings belonging to other sites and people and I was not sure if this would of been acceptable my bad

Larry_L · Sep 11, 2022

St Petersburg lawmakers face predictable response from the authorities. Apparently this was kind of an "I told you so" since they spoke out against the invasion in the beginning.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/09/lawmakers-putin-impeachment-censure-war/

Feanor · Sep 11, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa-Krivoy Rog.

Russia striking an alleged Ukrainian staging area, Kherson region.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Кадры боёв на юге: как армия России уничтожает боевиков ВСУ в ходе их провального наступления на Херсон Беспилотник следил за машиной боевиков и выявил их место базирования в частном секторе, затем навёл артиллерию и по зданию были нанесены мощные удары. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukrainian infantry advancing towards Kherson getting hit.

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Цепочка ВСУшников пыталась наступать в направлении Херсона. Были вскрыты комплексом разведки "Ирония", далее последовал арт удар. Противник уничтожен.

t.me

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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