China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[Musashi_kenshin]

Xi should look to his mate Vlad to see the dangers of relying on yes men.

It's too late. If there was a time Xi Jinping wanted to be told what was really happening, it was when he became leader.

To survive and get up the ladder in the CCP you need to agree with whoever holds power. Initiative isn't admired because that's another way of saying taking unilateral action without consultation. Provincial officials regularly lie about official figures to impress the top leadership and they get rewarded instead of punished.

After nearly a decade of purges and ultra-nationalism, no one is going to be the first to tell Xi when he's making mistakes - from their perspective it could be another Hundred Flowers Campaign in disguise.

 

[ngatimozart]

It's too late. If there was a time Xi Jinping wanted to be told what was really happening, it was when he became leader.

To survive and get up the ladder in the CCP you need to agree with whoever holds power. Initiative isn't admired because that's another way of saying taking unilateral action without consultation. Provincial officials regularly lie about official figures to impress the top leadership and they get rewarded instead of punished.

After nearly a decade of purges and ultra-nationalism, no one is going to be the first to tell Xi when he's making mistakes - from their perspective it could be another Hundred Flowers Campaign in disguise.

It's different at provincial and regional level to that at Central Committee level. And again at Central Committee level to that of the Politburo. You forget the factional politics at play as well at all levels and the higher up the food chain you are the more intense and deadlier they become. There are also the class politics between the Princelings and the non princelings to contend with. All of that creates a murky mix. Xi's also upset the PLA and that accounts for a lot because there are now a lot of annoyed corrupt generals who have lost lucrative sources of income and influence. That gives them common cause with Xi's main and deadliest enemy, the Jiang Zemin faction who own most of the police and security apparatus.

 

[Boatteacher]

It's different at provincial and regional level to that at Central Committee level. And again at Central Committee level to that of the Politburo. You forget the factional politics at play as well at all levels and the higher up the food chain you are the more intense and deadlier they become. There are also the class politics between the Princelings and the non princelings to contend with. All of that creates a murky mix. Xi's also upset the PLA and that accounts for a lot because there are now a lot of annoyed corrupt generals who have lost lucrative sources of income and influence. That gives them common cause with Xi's main and deadliest enemy, the Jiang Zemin faction who own most of the police and security apparatus.

You have made a number of very interesting comments over the last few months on internal CCP politics and challenges to Xi. I would love to know more. Are there any sources for this you can cite
PS: This is not a challenge on forum rules. It's wanting to be more informed.

 

[ngatimozart]

No problems. I have been following two YouTube Channels, Lei's Real Talk, and China Insights. I also follow Prof Anne-Marie Brady on Twitter, who is a world renown expert on the CCP and also very much hated by the CCP. She's written some good papers on how they influence and infect foreign countries and governments. I used to visit the South China Morning Post regularly prior to the CCP take over in 2020, but I don't so much now because of the institution of the PRC National Security law. I don't believe that the SCMP has its editorial independence from CCP censorship. So anything it prints / posts must be treated with much caution. There are some others but I find that most MSM and western analysts, especially American ones, don't appear to have a real handle on China and the CCP.

They look at it through a western lens and expect the CCP & PRC to think, operate, and act the same way that a western nation would. The classic case is Deng's economic reforms. They all said, and still say, that the economic reforms will bring democracy to the PRC, they have never understood that Deng's reforms were economic only and never political because they have been blinded by their own biases, cultural stereotyping, culture and belief systems. One concept put forward for this is Edward Said's Orientalism which is defined as: "Orientalism constructs cultural, spatial, and visual mythologies and stereotypes [of the Orient] that are often connected to the geopolitical ideologies of governments and institutions. The influence of these mythologies has impacted the formation of knowledge and the process of knowledge production." A classic example of this is the European and American attitudes towards Imperial Japanese military capabilities in the 1930s and early 1940s.

However getting back to the CCP and economic reforms, the CCP will never give up political control or power, and that's what many in the west do not understand. The CCP saw what happened to the CPSU and the USSR in 1989 - 1991 and they have learnt that lesson. They have watched what Putin has done to the Communist Party in Russia and how he has suppressed it, so they that has hardened their determination to remain in control. They are about obtaining power and retaining it at all costs.

 

[John Fedup]

Perhaps the only positive from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the effect on China. As this article suggests, Chinese Taiwan invasion plans are likely being re-evaluated. Factors like Taiwanese resistance, logistics and international reaction will be looked at….wrt to logistics, the hundred miles of water is probably starting to look longer.

CMC Berger: Russian Logistics Failures in Ukraine ‘Should Give Pause’ to Taiwan Invasion Planners - USNI News

Stalled Russian forces across a number of fronts in Ukraine “should give pause” to Chinese military planners looking across more than 100 miles of water at Taiwan as an amphibious invasion target, Gen. David Berger, Marine Corps commandant, said Wednesday. Any amphibious invasion “is not going...

news.usni.org

 

[weaponwh]

No problems. I have been following two YouTube Channels, Lei's Real Talk, and China Insights. I also follow Prof Anne-Marie Brady on Twitter, who is a world renown expert on the CCP and also very much hated by the CCP. She's written some good papers on how they influence and infect foreign countries and governments. I used to visit the South China Morning Post regularly prior to the CCP take over in 2020, but I don't so much now because of the institution of the PRC National Security law. I don't believe that the SCMP has its editorial independence from CCP censorship. So anything it prints / posts must be treated with much caution. There are some others but I find that most MSM and western analysts, especially American ones, don't appear to have a real handle on China and the CCP.

I watch China Insight a bit, too but alot these site are either too bias toward anti-china or pro-china. No one really know whats going on in the internal CCP.

CCP want to hold on to power for sure, but it need something to justify that, and that means prosperity/economy for alot ppl. It does value stability, instability is not good for business. It has to listen to majority of chinese concern, otherwise it wont able to stay in power for too long. for example, zero covid lock down, Xi want to show chinese they done a better job than west. another example in the early 2000's china main focus is economy, so does the local quota is also about economy. As more ppl complain about environment and smog, the central tell local govt. to care about environment more, this also on track with their solar/wind/hydro energy.

 

[seaspear]

Further to earlier discussion on the ability of high speed trains to deploy missiles

Hell on wheels: China readies high-speed rail nukes - Asia Times

China is looking at launching nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) from specially-designed high-speed trains that can transport its

asiatimes.com

 

[Boatteacher]

I recognise this is marginal to this forum, but never the less, a chink in the armour of the CCP is important.
It seems the CCP have dug themselves a deep hole with their covid zero policy and you have to wonder how they explain their way out after demeaning the west for surrendering to it.
They now have severe outbreaks of covid in a number of large cities and food riots and out breaks of discent. One citation, but I'm sure the news will be picked up widely.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/riots-break-out-in-shanghai-as-starving-residents-revolt-against-zero-covid-lockdown/news-story/43acf577aae15327d920fc823d4137db

And that's before the economic damage.
They can crush riots and close down on line complaints I'm sure, but starving people is not quickly forgotten.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I saw a video compiling shots from the Shanghai lockdown and was struck by the clips showing Chinese police interacting with members of the public. They seem to have little de-escalation training and have to resolve almost every situation through force or the immediate threat of force even when members of the public aren't being threatening.

I remember it used to be normal for the Chinese police to stand by and watch two people having a blazing argument in the street that could get violent at any moment. They didn't know if one of the people arguing had a knife on them.

But apparently standing outside and complaining requires immediate threat of being hit with a police baton, or being drop-kicked.

I haven't posted the video because it has distressing scenes of a child dying in a hospital and the police/security guard just standing by instead of going for help.

 

[ngatimozart]

I saw a video compiling shots from the Shanghai lockdown and was struck by the clips showing Chinese police interacting with members of the public. They seem to have little de-escalation training and have to resolve almost every situation through force or the immediate threat of force even when members of the public aren't being threatening.

I remember it used to be normal for the Chinese police to stand by and watch two people having a blazing argument in the street that could get violent at any moment. They didn't know if one of the people arguing had a knife on them.

But apparently standing outside and complaining requires immediate threat of being hit with a police baton, or being drop-kicked.

I haven't posted the video because it has distressing scenes of a child dying in a hospital and the police/security guard just standing by instead of going for help.

Good post. Yes the CCP / PRC Police aren't known for their kind compassionate manner. It's an alien concept to the organisation. Of course if it's a senior party official who's in the good books, then they will do everything to ensure their comfort and wellbeing, but of course that is conditional on the bribe and what faction they belong too.

On another note, six PLAAF Harbin Y-20 airlifters have arrived in Serbia on Friday night, all flying spaced about 100km apart. Apparently they are carrying PRC weaponry sold to Serbia. This is the first time that such a number of the Y-20 have been seen in Europe at the same time and the fact that they flew en mass. Half A Dozen Chinese Y-20 Cargo Jets Popped Up Over Europe Last Night (thedrive.com)

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I saw a video compiling shots from the Shanghai lockdown and was struck by the clips showing Chinese police interacting with members of the public. They seem to have little de-escalation training and have to resolve almost every situation through force or the immediate threat of force even when members of the public aren't being threatening.

I remember it used to be normal for the Chinese police to stand by and watch two people having a blazing argument in the street that could get violent at any moment. They didn't know if one of the people arguing had a knife on them.

But apparently standing outside and complaining requires immediate threat of being hit with a police baton, or being drop-kicked.

I haven't posted the video because it has distressing scenes of a child dying in a hospital and the police/security guard just standing by instead of going for help.

We are just lucky that we don't live in that country. It's just a nightmare to live in a country where oppression is the standard way of life.

Good post. Yes the CCP / PRC Police aren't known for their kind compassionate manner. It's an alien concept to the organisation. Of course if it's a senior party official who's in the good books, then they will do everything to ensure their comfort and wellbeing, but of course that is conditional on the bribe and what faction they belong too.

On another note, six PLAAF Harbin Y-20 airlifters have arrived in Serbia on Friday night, all flying spaced about 100km apart. Apparently they are carrying PRC weaponry sold to Serbia. This is the first time that such a number of the Y-20 have been seen in Europe at the same time and the fact that they flew en mass. Half A Dozen Chinese Y-20 Cargo Jets Popped Up Over Europe Last Night (thedrive.com)

It is unclear how many batteries/systems of FK-3/HQ-22 Serbia has ordered, but maybe the whole order is sent in one time aboard these six Y-20s.

It seems to be a capable system, specially if you look to the pricetag.

HQ-22 Long-Range Air Defense Missile System | Military-Today.com

The HQ-22 is a new China's long-range air defense missile system. So far it is the most capable air defense system of the China's military.

www.military-today.com

China delivers anti-aircraft missiles to Serbia

Serbia had signed for the missiles in 2020 under a contract that also included the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation-made CH-92 armed drone.

www.defensenews.com

 

[MotorManiac]

I'm wondering how China's demography might affect a possible war.

China has a gender imbalance, there are much more men than women, on the first look you might think you have plenty of "cannon-fodder", however due to the one-child policy China these "surplus men" are most likely the only child a family has.

Now especially when these men are not married I suppose they have to care for their parents when they are in old age, so especially the unmarried men might be socially essentiell, moreso than the married men where the wife or the grandchildren could care for the elderly.

So how many men would a (possibly already overaged) society of only-children be willing to sacrifice? I'm aware that China is a totalitarian system but also a totalitarian system needs to have the backup of its citizens to prevail in the long run.

Do you think this is a relevant matter on the subject at all?

What was China’s 1-child policy and why was it so controversial?

China’s one-child policy was rolled out in 1980 and was strictly enforced with various punishments before being replaced by a two-child policy in January 2016 and a three-child policy in May 2021.

www.scmp.com

As late as in 2013, filmmaker Zhang Yimou and his wife Chen Ting were fined 7.48 million yuan for having three children.
The policy led to sex-selective abortions or infanticide targeting girls, because of a centuries-old social preference for boys.

The gender imbalance is related to the one-child-policy as mentioned in this article. India has a similar preference for boys but no one-child-policy, so unlike China their society could to without their "surplus men" I quess.

English is not my mother tonque so please excuse if some words may sound inappropriate, it is not meant provocative or degratorory.

 

[John Fedup]

I'm wondering how China's demography might affect a possible war.

China has a gender imbalance, there are much more men than women, on the first look you might think you have plenty of "cannon-fodder", however due to the one-child policy China these "surplus men" are most likely the only child a family has.

Now especially when these men are not married I suppose they have to care for their parents when they are in old age, so especially the unmarried men might be socially essentiell, moreso than the married men where the wife or the grandchildren could care for the elderly.

So how many men would a (possibly already overaged) society of only-children be willing to sacrifice? I'm aware that China is a totalitarian system but also a totalitarian system needs to have the backup of its citizens to prevail in the long run.

Do you think this is a relevant matter on the subject at all?

What was China’s 1-child policy and why was it so controversial?

China’s one-child policy was rolled out in 1980 and was strictly enforced with various punishments before being replaced by a two-child policy in January 2016 and a three-child policy in May 2021.

www.scmp.com

The gender imbalance is related to the one-child-policy as mentioned in this article. India has a similar preference for boys but no one-child-policy, so unlike China their society could to without their "surplus men" I quess.

English is not my mother tonque so please excuse if some words may sound inappropriate, it is not meant provocative or degratorory.

Yes, there will consequences because of the one child policy and the age demographics is an even bigger issue. India doesn’t have the demographic problem and overall the population is quite young, same for the ME. Japan probably has the oldest population so they have demographic concerns as well. Immigration has been beneficial for North America cancelling out the effects of lower birth rates.

 

[ngatimozart]

I'm wondering how China's demography might affect a possible war.

China has a gender imbalance, there are much more men than women, on the first look you might think you have plenty of "cannon-fodder", however due to the one-child policy China these "surplus men" are most likely the only child a family has.

Now especially when these men are not married I suppose they have to care for their parents when they are in old age, so especially the unmarried men might be socially essentiell, moreso than the married men where the wife or the grandchildren could care for the elderly.

So how many men would a (possibly already overaged) society of only-children be willing to sacrifice? I'm aware that China is a totalitarian system but also a totalitarian system needs to have the backup of its citizens to prevail in the long run.

Do you think this is a relevant matter on the subject at all?

What was China’s 1-child policy and why was it so controversial?

China’s one-child policy was rolled out in 1980 and was strictly enforced with various punishments before being replaced by a two-child policy in January 2016 and a three-child policy in May 2021.

www.scmp.com

The gender imbalance is related to the one-child-policy as mentioned in this article. India has a similar preference for boys but no one-child-policy, so unlike China their society could to without their "surplus men" I quess.

English is not my mother tonque so please excuse if some words may sound inappropriate, it is not meant provocative or degratorory.

It is quite a concerning demographic for the CCP because of the decreasing replacement rate.


Source: Population of China 2022 - PopulationPyramid.net

If you look at the population pyramid above you see that there is quite a bulge between the ages of 30 - 60, but below 30 there is a marked narrowing of the pyramid. In fact it isn't a pyramid at all but more shrub like. The other point is the differences between the male and females in the below 30 year old groups. Between 35 - 50 age groups it's about 0.2% more male, however below that it increases with a range from 0.3% - 0.6% more male. Out of a population of 1.45 billion the range is 4.35 - 8.7 million more males. To put that into context the population of New Zealand is 5.1 million. So there are close to 9 million guys who won't be able to find a female / wife and have children if they feel so inclined. That's a lot of potentially frustrated, unhappy men who could cause problems for the CCP.

At the moment the PLA is voluntary and you have to, ahem, buy your enlistment, even as a private. So you pay a bribe to get enlisted and then promotion is based on who you bribe and how big the bribe is. There are some really good soldiers, sailors and airmen, but unless they have the means to pay the appropriate bribes to the appropriate superior, they won't get promoted no matter how good they are, unless they are very highly connected. So it's debateable about how good the PLA would actually be in a full on combat situation. The trouble is we don't know and given what I've just said they could turn out to be rubbish or they could turn out to be really good. We just don't know.

So there are two real problems that the CCP and PLA are going to have to face. The first is the declining population and that's quite evident from the population pyramid above. It will not only affect the PLA, but it's going to have a major impact right across the PRC economy from agriculture through to manufacturing, health, transport, everything. There is a decreasing pool of available workers required to support an increasing number of elderly and frail. There is also the decreasing pool of those available to join the PLA and the security forces. That has political connotations for the CCP because the security and policing budget is actually greater than the defence budget by a reasonable amount. The Standing Committee of the Politburo will be putting considerable effort into solving the security and police problem. That comes before all else.

As you can see there are quite a few negative future impacts that will be felt because of the one child policy.

 

[MotorManiac]

At the moment the PLA is voluntary and you have to, ahem, buy your enlistment, even as a private. So you pay a bribe to get enlisted and then promotion is based on who you bribe and how big the bribe is. There are some really good soldiers, sailors and airmen, but unless they have the means to pay the appropriate bribes to the appropriate superior, they won't get promoted no matter how good they are, unless they are very highly connected. So it's debateable about how good the PLA would actually be in a full on combat situation. The trouble is we don't know and given what I've just said they could turn out to be rubbish or they could turn out to be really good. We just don't know.

This is the last thing I expected, is this is actually a mass phenomen? If so, why do people enlist, is it for economic reasons, prestige, patriotism? Are the bribes high enough that you can say the PLA recruits from rather wealthy families, is this a further factor when it comes to public support for a war?

Can we say that the consequense is a rather "good spirit" within the PLA, I mean nobody would pay to enlist in an army where he is bullied and abused as in the Russian army, speaking about the dedovshchina in Russia. On the other hand this kind of corruption would weaken an army when not the most able men are enlisted or put in positions that suit them.

One reason why the Russians perform so badly is said their command structures, the lack of Junior officers, does China have similar structural problems, or more generally asked, have all modern authoritarian systems similar structural problems in their combat leadership or is it a specific Russian problem?

As China fought no war in the past decades I guess nobody knows how capable the PLA actually is, propably even China itself does not know?

As for demographics, my main interest was, is it that bad that it would prevent China from an invasion in Taiwan as long as they expect (very) high losses at an attempt and what would be high losses for a nation still as big as China?

 

[ngatimozart]

This is the last thing I expected, is this is actually a mass phenomen? If so, why do people enlist, is it for economic reasons, prestige, patriotism? Are the bribes high enough that you can say the PLA recruits from rather wealthy families, is this a further factor when it comes to public support for a war?

Can we say that the consequense is a rather "good spirit" within the PLA, I mean nobody would pay to enlist in an army where he is bullied and abused as in the Russian army, speaking about the dedovshchina in Russia. On the other hand this kind of corruption would weaken an army when not the most able men are enlisted or put in positions that suit them.

One reason why the Russians perform so badly is said their command structures, the lack of Junior officers, does China have similar structural problems, or more generally asked, have all modern authoritarian systems similar structural problems in their combat leadership or is it a specific Russian problem?

As China fought no war in the past decades I guess nobody knows how capable the PLA actually is, propably even China itself does not know?

As for demographics, my main interest was, is it that bad that it would prevent China from an invasion in Taiwan as long as they expect (very) high losses at an attempt and what would be high losses for a nation still as big as China?

I would suspect that the recruits may be from the middle class of Chinese society, but it depends upon the level of the bribe required. In a convoluted way it is a selection tool for obtaining educated recruits because the PLA requires recruits who can count without having to take their boots and socks off. WRT public support for the PLA and a war, the CCP is very good at rousing nationalist sentiments and fervour, so they soon would have the vast majority of the population howling for the blood of the enemy. We've seen it recently when they've wound up the nationalist fervour for one reason or the other and we see it with their wolf warrior diplomats.

Yes the corruption weakens a military force in many ways. The best people don't get the jobs, especially the important jobs, equipment can be shoddy, because inferior materials have been used, what's actually in supply depots and what's officially in supply depots can be two completely different stories etc. I would not doubt the "spirit", morale, or whatever you want to call it in the PLA. First of all it is not the military of the nation state of China, nor the people of China. It's the military of the CCP and it's loyalty is to the CCP and the CCP only. It also has political officers in each unit to ensure the loyalty of each soldier and that each and every soldier from the lowest private to the most senior officer has unswerving devotion to the CCP and does exactly what they are told. However each political officer will belong to a certain Party faction as will the leadership team that they are working with and it most likely will be the same faction, otherwise it can get dangerous.

The PLA-GF have structured their forces similar to the US Army forces and I would think that their fighting doctrine may be similar to a point. They probably won't allow sub-unit, unit, and formation commanders the same degree of latitude and freedom that western commanders have. That would be to much delegation of authority and freedom for the CCP to handle. They will be watching the Russian army performance in the Ukraine and taking away lessons from that, but the CCP is communist trained in the Russian school of communism, and it won't willingly give up any form of control. This will be their Achilles heel because it will take them longer to react to changes in a situation that are not part of a battleplan and / or that they haven't been briefed on / for. Having said that we shouldn't take anything for granted and we underestimate them at our peril.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I think we discussed Chinese demographics last year, but here's an article from a Chinese academic who predicts China's population will fall this year. Link without a paywall is here.

(This was somewhat spun by the Global Times in its headline as "negative growth".)

I was always highly suspicious of the last population census, and I recall speculation that China's population had already started falling - the CCP may have been lucky that there was a bit of population growth in the tank at the start of the measuring period to cover for the fact the population was going down at the end. But it looks like the decline is about to start if it hasn't already.

There's no need to restate its affect on China, but I'm interested on what the impact will be on the PLA. I came across an observation recently, I forget where, that it's not unusual to see countries in decline pump out a lot of military hardware because of the lead time - I think the example given was the Soviet Union in the 1980s. So we'll probably see lots of new ships and planes for at least a couple of years.

I wonder whether the CCP will try to double-down on its pro-military policies by depriving the country of social welfare spending, raise taxes or pull back the growth of military spending. Certainly current budget policies won't be sustainable.

 

[tonyget]

There's no need to restate its affect on China, but I'm interested on what the impact will be on the PLA.

I'm interest to know how militarys of China‘s neighbor such as Japan/Korea/Taiwan cope with falling population，hire foreign mercenaries？

Certainly current budget policies won't be sustainable.

China‘s defence budget is 1.4% GDP as of 2021，pretty average by global standard，lower than many western nations. So I would say it is sustainable.

 

[ngatimozart]

I'm interest to know how militarys of China‘s neighbor such as Japan/Korea/Taiwan cope with falling population，hire foreign mercenaries

I doubt it. At present they appear to be able to manage their defence personnel requirements ok. I believe that SK still has the draft and so does Taiwan.

China‘s defence budget is 1.4% GDP as of 2021，pretty average by global standard，lower than many western nations. So I would say it is sustainable.

I doubt the validity of that figure. So how about you provide a source as required by the forum rules.

 

[ngatimozart]

This is a China Insights video about corruption within the PLA. Generally I have found their material to be reasonably valid because it has been corroborated by other sources. It is well worth taking the time the watch and is just under 15 minutes long. It does raise a few important questions.

If the video is reasonably correct, this does call into question the professionalism, capability and reliability of personnel, equipment, and the ability of the PLA in a combat situation:

• How good will they be overall in a modern conflict against a near peer enemy?
• What will their C3ISR be like?
• What will their strategic decision making capability and capacity be capable of?
• How well will their field commanders act when confronted with unusual field problems?
• Who are the troops and commanders loyal to?
• What is their logistics system like and how much faith do they have in its reliability?

A few important and substantial questions that we really don't know the answers too. The PLA has political officers in each unit to ensure that every soldier and officer sticks to the Party line. But according to the video, they spend most of their time working on their next promotion within the PLA and the Party organisation. If these political officers are all tainted / corrupt then the CCP doesn't really have the control over the PLA that it thinks it has, because each of the political officers will be looking to his / her particular faction / group first, well before the Party because that group is where they are making their money from bribes and other corrupt practices as well, as paying bribes to seniors to ensure promotions and more money.