China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[Vivendi]

China may have found a way to really hurt Lithuania after they opened the "Taiwan" office:

China has told multinationals to cut ties with Lithuania or face being shut out of the Chinese market, according to officials and firms in the Baltic state, as a dispute over Taiwan deepens.

Lithuania’s direct trade with China is minor, but its export-based economy is home to hundreds of firm that make goods such as furniture, food and clothing for multinationals that sell to China.

Chinese investment in Lithuania was estimated to be around just £70m last year, according to the Central and Eastern Europe Centre for Asian Studies. This amounts to around 0.4 per cent of Lithuania’s total foreign direct investment.

The United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade shows China’s exports to Lithuania reached £1bn in 2020, while China imported Lithuanian goods were worth £258m.

The Lithuanian Confederation of Industrialists, which represents thousands of firms, said some multinationals that buy goods from local suppliers were being targeted by China.

“This week was the first time we saw direct Chinese pressure on a supplier to drop Lithuanian-made goods,” said Vidmantas Janulevicius, the Confederation president. “Previously, we only had threats it could happen, now they became reality.”

Lithuania says China has told multinationals to boycott Vilnius over Taiwan row | The Independent

China is definitely stepping up the pressure. If this works, perhaps China will use this technique against other countries as well.

 

[John Fedup]

China may have found a way to really hurt Lithuania after they opened the "Taiwan" office:




Lithuania says China has told multinationals to boycott Vilnius over Taiwan row | The Independent

China is definitely stepping up the pressure. If this works, perhaps China will use this technique against other countries as well.

All the more reason for like minded countries to form a united front and shovel their stuff right back them.

 

[STURM]

The problem is a lot of the like minded countries have economies which are heavily linked to China's and will have to find the right balance with regards to standing up to China, whilst also safeguarding their own interests.

China's actions are that of a fairly new, immature and uncompromising new power which is still insecure and resorts to harsh and drastic measures to achieve its aims. To be fair, when it comes to making up new rules and forcing its will on others, China is merely following in the footsteps of other countries who have resorted to such means when they were on their way to becoming great powers and which they still do to a certain extent.

What China is doing to Lithuania is a sharp warning to other countries. In an ideal world the West and its friends and allies would form a united front to deal with China but alas we don't live in an ideal world. If even powerful economies like France and Geemany refuse to sell SSKs to Taiwan due to fears of a Chinese backlash, what chance do countries like Lithuania have in dealing with Chinese pressure and intimidation?

 

[John Fedup]

The problem is a lot of the like minded countries have economies which are heavily linked to China's and will have to find the right balance with regards to standing up to China, whilst also safeguarding their own interests.

China's actions are that of a fairly new, immature and uncompromising new power which is still insecure and resorts to harsh and drastic measures to achieve its aims. To be fair, when it comes to making up new rules and forcing its will on others, China is merely following in the footsteps of other countries who have resorted to such means when they were on their way to becoming great powers and which they still do to a certain extent.

What China is doing to Lithuania is a sharp warning to other countries. In an ideal world the West and its friends and allies would form a united front to deal with China but alas we don't live in an ideal world. If even powerful economies like France and Geemany refuse to sell SSKs to Taiwan due to fears of a Chinese backlash, what chance do countries like Lithuania have in dealing with Chinese pressure and intimidation?

Perhaps France and Germany should give some serious thought as to what happens to Airbus market share when China starts to intimidate smaller nations into buying Chinese aviation products. The longer this goes on the more difficult it will be to respond effectively. Given China’s recent behaviour, both countries should have offered SSKs to Taiwan.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

If even powerful economies like France and Geemany refuse to sell SSKs to Taiwan due to fears of a Chinese backlash, what chance do countries like Lithuania have in dealing with Chinese pressure and intimidation?

By going cold turkey.

Lithuania is a small country, yes. But it also has a) limited exposure to China via trade, b) is part of the EU (which gives it opportunities to get around Chinese controls by exporting/importing via neighbours), c) has tried sucking up to Beijing in the past and didn't get jack in return and d) has a very proud people who don't like being pushed around by Communists.

Not to say that relations between Lithuania and China won't be patched up, but as things stand Vilnius has little to lose by annoying Beijing.

As for France and Germany, they have been a lot more exposed by trade, but I expect if they had sold submarines to Taiwan, China's reactions would have been moderate simply because they sold a lot to them in return. Of course it's too late to prove that now.

The countries that have a lot to fear from China are smaller and weak nations that are out of favour with the democratic world and rely on China to keep themselves afloat, which actually aren't that many.

 

[Vivendi]

By going cold turkey.

Lithuania is a small country, yes. But it also has a) limited exposure to China via trade, b) is part of the EU (which gives it opportunities to get around Chinese controls by exporting/importing via neighbours), c) has tried sucking up to Beijing in the past and didn't get jack in return and d) has a very proud people who don't like being pushed around by Communists.

Not to say that relations between Lithuania and China won't be patched up, but as things stand Vilnius has little to lose by annoying Beijing.

I disagree. In the article I linked to above, it seems to me that China has found a way to hurt Lithuania even if direct trade between Lithuania and China is very limited. I am sure China can also think of other ways to hurt Lithuania. As for EU, I suspect EU will be divided (as they always are) and therefore we will hear mostly words and little action from Brussels.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

it seems to me that China has found a way to hurt Lithuania

As I mentioned, being in the EU means Lithuania has the opportunity to route goods via other countries. An unnamed company stops ordering parts from Lithuania? Fine. So now the Lithuanian supplier rents a warehouse in Latvia, moves the parts over the border for hardly any cost and magically they're Latvian.

Also, even if China does harm the Lithuanian economy somehow, is it going to be noticeable? Are Lithuanians going to care if some corporations make less profit? As I said, they are a proud people. Is the Lithuanian government going to want to take the political hit from bowing to China?

As for EU, I suspect EU will be divided (as they always are) and therefore we will hear mostly words and little action from Brussels.

The EU was mostly united during the negotiations for the UK leaving, so there's no reason to believe they won't support Lithuania. What China is doing is attempting to undermine the single market. I'm not talking about sanctions, I'm talking about helping ensure Lithuania isn't seriously harmed.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Some more developments in china's urge to expand its power.

Nicaragua has ended all diplomatic relations with Taiwan and has become one of China's vassal s....i mean one of China's allies.

Nicaragua breekt met Taiwan en kiest voor China

Een succes voor China, dat zijn invloed in Latijns-Amerika uitbreidt en Taiwan verder isoleert.

nos.nl

And it seems that new facilities being built at the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia to facilitate a Chinese military presence.

China continues construction at Ream Naval base in Cambodia

There have been reports of new facilities being built at the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia to facilitate a Chinese military presence. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has released a survey that shows new buildings and a road in Ream Naval Base.

www.wionews.com

It also seems that china had started to build something in a port in the UAE.

China halts work on military base in UAE after US intervention: Report

China has halted the work on a military base in the UAE after the intervention of the United States. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal had reported that China was constructing a military facility on a secret port. US President Joe Biden had issued a warning to China that it would adversely...

www.wionews.com

Some articles talking about a new chinese (para)military base in Tajikistan...

China’s Security Infrastructure Continues to Grow in Tajikistan

Several reports in October underscore the persistent growth of Chinese security engagement in Tajikistan.

thediplomat.com

...other articles telling it's just an outpost.

Not a Military Base: Why Did China Commit to an Outpost in Tajikistan? | ISPI

Leggi l'articolo Not a Military Base: Why Did China Commit to an Outpost in Tajikistan? sul sito dell'ISPI.

www.ispionline.it

 

[STURM]

Some more developments in china's urge to expand its power.

I see it as part of moves to better enable China to safeguard its growing interests and influence.

China is a rising power and like other powers in the past; is doing what it feels it needs to do irregardless of what others say or do. Like it or not China's growing presence around the globe is a reality and something we have to live with; the days when there was only a single hegemon are over. Personally I'm very concerned about China but given that various Western countries have long held bases in numerous places around the globe for decades [in line with their national interests]; is it surprising that China is doing the same? Come to think of it; not exactly the same as quite a bit of what it has abroad are ports and not military facilities per see and the military bases it does have are modest in comparison to what Western countries have in the Middle East and other places; on foreign soil.

On Tajikistan lets see how things pan out. Central Asia is in China's backyard and China has expressed a keen interest to invest in Afghanistan and the country's minerals. The Chinese will not make the mistake the U.S. did of pouring large numbers of troops in Afghanistan; a base in Tajikistan would give them the ability to rapidly deploy to Afghanistan it there is a need and would increase the level of influence China has in the region.

 

[cdxbow]

PRC getting its foot further in the door in the Solomon's - China sending police advisors and riot gear to Australia’s chaos-plagued neighbour | 7NEWS. So it begins....

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

PRC getting its foot further in the door in the Solomon's - China sending police advisors and riot gear to Australia’s chaos-plagued neighbour | 7NEWS. So it begins....

|"The Chinese riot equipment includes shields, helmets, batons and “other non-lethal gears that will further enhance Solomon Islands Police ability in confronting future threats”, the statement on the government website said.

Some Australian soldiers who had been deployed in Honiara began returning home on Thursday."|

A next step can be that china will send anti-riot police units to the Solomon Islands as a "sign of friendship and to bring freedom, peace and order".



Another sign of freedom, peace and order.
Yesterday the chinese government removed the Pillar of Shame at the University of Hong Kong.

Beeld voor slachtoffers bloedbad Tiananmenplein weggehaald in Hongkong

Het beeld met de titel 'Pillar of Shame' bestaat uit vijftig op elkaar gestapelde gemartelde lichamen en gekwelde gezichten.

nos.nl

Pillar of Shame: Tiananmen Square memorial statue removed in Hong Kong

The Pillar of Shame showed piled-up corpses to commemorate protesters killed by Chinese authorities in 1989.

www.bbc.com

Today they erased other memorials at two other universities.

Nog twee universiteiten in Hongkong halen herinnering aan 1989 weg

"Ze willen niet dat er nog andere opvattingen blijven bestaan dan de hunne", zegt de maker van de kunstwerken.

nos.nl

Hong Kong universities remove more monuments marking Tiananmen

It comes a day after a famous statue marking the 1989 massacre was removed from a university.

www.bbc.com

 

[Ananda]

China’s Surprise Submarine Move Shows Its Growing Power - Naval News

Submarine sales are a powerful weapon in the game of international power and influence. China is increasingly combining it with the Belt and Road Initiative in ways which shape the geopolitical landscape. The latest surprise submarine supply illustrates this.

www.navalnews.com

Put this HI Sutton article on this thread, as like Sutton put, Submarine deals is more political influences games then just commercial one. Interesting to see how China also play balance with Bangladesh and Myanmar. Both practically long time defense customers of China defense assets. This also shown how China put more or less similar importance to China Road and Belt policies, and getting them on tug game of influence between India and China.

Clearly China want to suround India with neighbours that more day by day, inch by inch pull to China gravity rather then India. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka are all play important part on this Road and Belt politics.

Type 39B Yuan class at least already reach parity with Russian Kilo. What they still lack from latest improve Kilo on silencing game (at least based on some naval analyst assesment), being compensate by their AIP (which Kilo does not have it). This in paper will give them something that can threaten
even Nato standard fleet.

Still this is part of China effort to get more holds of influence in the 2 oceans.

 

[ngatimozart]

China’s Surprise Submarine Move Shows Its Growing Power - Naval News

Submarine sales are a powerful weapon in the game of international power and influence. China is increasingly combining it with the Belt and Road Initiative in ways which shape the geopolitical landscape. The latest surprise submarine supply illustrates this.

www.navalnews.com

Put this HI Sutton article on this thread, as like Sutton put, Submarine deals is more political influences games then just commercial one. Interesting to see how China also play balance with Bangladesh and Myanmar. Both practically long time defense customers of China defense assets. This also shown how China put more or less similar importance to China Road and Belt policies, and getting them on tug game of influence between India and China.

Clearly China want to suround India with neighbours that more day by day, inch by inch pull to China gravity rather then India. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka are all play important part on this Road and Belt politics.

Type 39B Yuan class at least already reach parity with Russian Kilo. What they still lack from latest improve Kilo on silencing game (at least based on some naval analyst assesment), being compensate by their AIP (which Kilo does not have it). This in paper will give them something that can threaten
even Nato standard fleet.

Still this is part of China effort to get more holds of influence in the 2 oceans.

The implications are not just for India, but also the region as a whole because it's giving the PRC indirect access to sea lanes west of the Straits of Malaka. There will be a PLAN base in the eastern IO eventually.

 

[cdxbow]

More comedy gold from FM, Wang Yi - China won't 'bully' neighbours over South China Sea, foreign minister says | Reuters

 

[Boagrius]

More comedy gold from FM, Wang Yi - China won't 'bully' neighbours over South China Sea, foreign minister says | Reuters

It's not bullying if they say it isn't. Pull your head in @cdxbow ;-p

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting article from FP about Xi. Possibly he does fear losing his grip on power. Certainly additional COVID problems and economic woes (especially property and energy) must be a concern. Could it be potential rivals aren’t impressed with his ongoing threats towards Taiwan and the huge risk any invasion will bring about?

Xi Jinping Is Watching His Back

His rhetoric has taken a paranoid turn—and holing himself up in Beijing hasn’t helped.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[ngatimozart]

Interesting article from FP about Xi. Possibly he does fear losing his grip on power.

Xi knows that he loses he dies because if the Jiang Zemin faction win they will ensure his, his family and his closest allies and their families executions. He has cost the Jiang Zemin family and faction US$ hundreds of billions in financial loss, let alone the purging, imprisonment and execution of senior members of the faction. But it is the financial loss that has hurt the faction the most. Then there is the PLA who he used to be close too but now he's managed to upset quite a bit as well with his purging. A lot of very senior and not so senior generals were purged and have lost serious money because of him.

Certainly additional COVID problems and economic woes (especially property and energy) must be a concern. Could it be potential rivals aren’t impressed with his ongoing threats towards Taiwan and the huge risk any invasion will bring about?

Xi Jinping Is Watching His Back

His rhetoric has taken a paranoid turn—and holing himself up in Beijing hasn’t helped.

foreignpolicy.com

It's not potential rivals, but current rivals and whether or not they have the numbers to remove him. The threats towards Taiwan are nothing new and have always been present, but the rhetoric has been amped up and the PLA has been more active in recent times. Both the property development and energy problems have been own goals on the part of the CCP and Xi's administration. The Taiwan rhetoric can be seen as away of him stoking the fires of nationalism in order to divert peoples attention away from domestic problems. Also his clamp down on the population as a whole, is to stifle any domestic criticism and resistance to the CCP. Mao had his Great Leap Forward which killed an estimated 20+ million. Xi looks like he is working on the Great Leap Inward returning to the days of Mao. However unlike Mao, Xi is a highly educated individual with a knowledge of the world beyond the borders of the PRC and a knowledge of modern technology. That makes him more dangerous than Mao because he has and uses the full capabilities of modern technology to surveil and control the PRC population.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

However unlike Mao, Xi is a highly educated individual with a knowledge of the world beyond the borders of the PRC and a knowledge of modern technology.

Whilst Xi is better educated than Mao in an absolute sense, I don't know I would call him "highly educated". Some people seem to think that studying engineering puts a person in that category, but I see no reason why it would.

Xi speaks no foreign languages fluently. He supposedly speaks a bit of English but not enough to risk communicating in it in front of the cameras.

For me he's someone who lacks sophistication. He defaults far too quickly to projecting force and threats. He's also been hiding in China, refusing to leave. That suggests he lacks confidence.

Compare and contrast with Jiang Zemin who speaks a decent amount of English and Russian, and has certainly at times did speak in English in public. Even the current Chinese Prime Minister can speak English fairly fluently. I think it's no surprise that Li seems the more open-minded and empathetic (relatively speaking) of the Chinese leaders at the moment.

Jiang was a crafty operator, helping rebuild China's image after 1989 and assuring foreigners that China and HK were safe places to do business. The groundwork Jiang laid was such that a year or so after he stepped down as President/Chairman of the CCP, the EU was seriously talking about lifting the arms embargo with China. Xi hasn't come nearly as close despite China's larger economy.

It doesn't mean than Jiang's faction will win, but it means Xi has to constantly be on alert and have scapegoats on hand when something goes wrong. Then again maybe he's planning on being dead by the time China's economy gets in trouble due to the crushing debt and demographic crisis.

 

[ngatimozart]

Whilst Xi is better educated than Mao in an absolute sense, I don't know I would call him "highly educated". Some people seem to think that studying engineering puts a person in that category, but I see no reason why it would.

Xi speaks no foreign languages fluently. He supposedly speaks a bit of English but not enough to risk communicating in it in front of the cameras.

For me he's someone who lacks sophistication. He defaults far too quickly to projecting force and threats. He's also been hiding in China, refusing to leave. That suggests he lacks confidence.

Compare and contrast with Jiang Zemin who speaks a decent amount of English and Russian, and has certainly at times did speak in English in public. Even the current Chinese Prime Minister can speak English fairly fluently. I think it's no surprise that Li seems the more open-minded and empathetic (relatively speaking) of the Chinese leaders at the moment.

Jiang was a crafty operator, helping rebuild China's image after 1989 and assuring foreigners that China and HK were safe places to do business. The groundwork Jiang laid was such that a year or so after he stepped down as President/Chairman of the CCP, the EU was seriously talking about lifting the arms embargo with China. Xi hasn't come nearly as close despite China's larger economy.

It doesn't mean than Jiang's faction will win, but it means Xi has to constantly be on alert and have scapegoats on hand when something goes wrong. Then again maybe he's planning on being dead by the time China's economy gets in trouble due to the crushing debt and demographic crisis.

You misunderstand the situation a bit. Jiang is as corrupt as and that's when the corruption really got out of hand. He was the one who let the PLA loose in the business world and significant amount of yuan made in the name of the PLA somehow found its way into the generals back pockets making them very wealthy, even by American standards. Jiang had to watch his back as well because he wasn't Deng's chosen appointment for the position and Deng knew that he would cause problems and be corrupt. It's all games within games and the war between Jiang and Xi is very deadly.

 

[John Fedup]

An interesting take on Xi’s accumulation of power and how it affects Chinese foreign policy. Also, having increasing small groups of yes men clearly can cause problems and miscalculations. Xi should look to his mate Vlad to see the dangers of relying on yes men. I wonder if he has ordered his really long meeting table yet?

Xi Jinping’s Faltering Foreign Policy

The war in Ukraine and the perils of strongman rule.

www.foreignaffairs.com