ADF General discussion thread

[ASSAIL]

2020 Strategic Update

@hauritz has already posted the ABC report on the PM's 2020 Defence Strategic Update on the RAAF thread, but I think it bears discussion in a more general forum given that the update covers all services, so I'll post an extract from the News Limited online with some comments and the link to the News Ltd article

My extract is the "shopping list" of hardware, but there's also an increase in numbers, principally for the Navy - read the full article - and there are many items included that have long been foreshadowed by the White Paper and IIP. However, there are interesting gems, like 2000 ton amphibious vessels for the Army (LCH replacement, anyone?) and confirmation of the purchase of (2 regiments?) of self propelled howitzers,

More important than the shopping list is an intent to raise spending to above the magic 2% of GDP and acknowledgement that this will be difficult in post COVID financial situation



I accept that this is News Ltd's interpretation, but it gives an interesting start point until the actual document is available on line. It's been interesting reading the press this morning. I don't know if ABC is taking a balanced position, or just waiting for something from their favourite defence commentator to horrify the collective. I'm sure Peter Hartcher is following the old Fairfax line in SMH (anything but USA) when he suggests that we need to be independent and this doesn't work because we have to buy LRASM from the USA. As usual, no suggestion of what we should do instead, but it's either a) buy from Russia or b) buy from Sweden or c) adopt the same position as Canada and NZ and hope someone else does it

New Limited article in full. Please bear in mind that their defence correspondents have irritate the hell out of me, so I won't be blamed for their errors. ;-)

‘Dangerous and disorderly’: PM’s warning on post-COVID world

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will warn Australians to prepare for a more “dangerous and disorderly” post-COVID world as he announces a $270 billion cash splash today on long-range maritime missiles and land strike capabilities as tensions with China intensify.

www.news.com.au

oldsig

Just to add a few points detailed in a piece by Greg Sheridan in today’s Oz.
The Strategic update refocuses the ADF away from the ME back to the Indian Pacific.
Arafura OPVs to be given greater combat lethality by enabling them to lay and counter smart mines.
More Growlers, quantum not specified.
Fully maintain funding commitments listed in the 2016 DWP.
Decouple spending presentation as a % of GDP, and,
Collins LOTE will introduce much of the Attack class state of the art tech.

All positive.

 

[oldsig127]

Yes very interesting political timing to release this as economy is tanking so it will give plenty of ammo to those that would be bashing their teeth on the positive polls results Lip/Nats have been getting. A Cutting my jobseeker for new missiles will appear at some stage I’m not sure how much of it is new spend. This was from ABC this morning. Australia to build larger and more aggressive military to prepare for post-pandemic disorder

i think you read too much into the timing. For starters, there's actually NO new money, despite the ABC's take on it, rather a funding horizon stretched out to 10 years rather than three. Secondly the Chief Defence Scientist gave a talk at the Press Club some weeks ago which predictd a rise in spending on Defence related research AND the wider benefit that high tech research and manufacture would give post COVID. Thirdly the PM and Defence Minister have both posted months ago that the national shipbuilding plan and other defence manufacture within Australia would be unaffected by the cost of COVID because of he number of jobs they do (and will) provide and the boost to self sufficiency that building scientific, technical and trade will give in a world where we now know we're a long way from being able to survive alone

oldsig

 

[hauritz]

There has obviously been a substantial ramping up of tensions with China over the last few months so none of this should really be a surprise. The element that had me curious is the mention of hypersonic weapons. From the wording, it seems that they aren't just talking about acquiring them but actually developing them. Australia is actually one of the nations at the forefront of scramjet technology so perhaps it is inevitable that we should become involved in the development of these weapons.

Australia plans mach 20 scramjet in 2018 that can fly 120 miles in 30 seconds | NextBigFuture.com

Australia's DSTO has been doing hypersonic experiments in Woomera, South Australia and Norway. In 2018, it plans to launch a glider with an air-breathing

www.nextbigfuture.com

Interesting that in 2018 Australia was teaming with Norway on this project.

 

[Redlands18]

Just to add a few points detailed in a piece by Greg Sheridan in today’s Oz.
The Strategic update refocuses the ADF away from the ME back to the Indian Pacific.
Arafura OPVs to be given greater combat lethality by enabling them to lay and counter smart mines.
More Growlers, quantum not specified.
Fully maintain funding commitments listed in the 2016 DWP.
Decouple spending presentation as a % of GDP, and,
Collins LOTE will introduce much of the Attack class state of the art tech.

All positive.

2020 Defence Strategic Update | About | Defence

The Defence Strategic Update sets out the challenges in Australia’s strategic environment and their implications for Defence planning. The 2020 Force Structure Plan details the Government’s intentions for new and adjusted Australian Defence Force capability investments to implement the new...

www.defence.gov.au

A few interesting things including a significant overall increase in Sealift, with 2 MR Sealift/Replenishment Vessels and a large Landing Craft. Nothing at all on what is happening with the FA-18F Fleet but a plan for replacing the current Growler capability and the F-35, but it does have additional Air Combat capability.
The program for a LR Rotorcraft from the late 20s is a bit of a Head scratcher, sounds like CV-22s but the $1.4-$2.1b budget seems very low to me.

 

[vonnoobie]

Home : Strategic Update 2020 : Department of Defence

Go look at the link. A lot to list down with little time at work but so far we will be looking at growler replacement from 2025 , ballistic missile defence, future replacement of C-130 with increased numbers, designing and building in Australia 2x choules/replenishment type ships, a future replacement for ocean shield ice strengthened and a repair/salvage ship. So much more there

 

[hauritz]

2020 Defence Strategic Update | About | Defence

The Defence Strategic Update sets out the challenges in Australia’s strategic environment and their implications for Defence planning. The 2020 Force Structure Plan details the Government’s intentions for new and adjusted Australian Defence Force capability investments to implement the new...

www.defence.gov.au

A few interesting things including a significant overall increase in Sealift, with 2 MR Sealift/Replenishment Vessels and a large Landing Craft. Nothing at all on what is happening with the FA-18F Fleet but a plan for replacing the current Growler capability and the F-35, but it does have additional Air Combat capability.
The program for a LR Rotorcraft from the late 20s is a bit of a Head scratcher, sounds like CV-22s but the $1.4-$2.1b budget seems very low to me.

There was more emphasis on teaming vehicles than fighter aircraft with around twice as much allocated to teaming air vehicles. Early replacement of the Rhino's may no longer be a priority and in fact the two seater Rhinos might be a better match for teaming air vehicles.

Also noticed no mention of additional P-8As and plans for additional KC-10s have also been scrapped.

There was a mention that the government will review the balance between MQ-4C and the P-8A Poseidon which suggests to me that we might see additional Tritons preferred to the P-8A.

 

[vonnoobie]

Looking at the numbers with a GDP circa $2 trillion AUD and a growth rate of 2.65% (OECD forecast) brings GDP to around $2.65 trillion?. The budget fact sheet lists a 2029-30 budget of $73.687 billion. Brings our budget if not mistaken to around 2.78% by 2030. All I can say is bugger me.

 

[John Newman]

Looking at the numbers with a GDP circa $2 trillion AUD and a growth rate of 2.65% (OECD forecast) brings GDP to around $2.65 trillion?. The budget fact sheet lists a 2029-30 budget of $73.687 billion. Brings our budget if not mistaken to around 2.78% by 2030. All I can say is bugger me.

The figure of 2% of GDP has been more of a nominal figure for a while now, even if you had a closer look at the 2016 DWP figures, those figures quoted were not necessarily directly related to GDP, realistically they were hard dollar figures.

If Defence spending had been strictly tied to GDP, we would have more than likely seen a dip in Defence spending, due to the corresponding dip in GDP because of the impact of CV.

Personally I think it's a good idea to 'de link' Defence spending from GDP and instead provide hard dollar figures that can be relied on a bit more.

Cheers,

 

[ngatimozart]

There was more emphasis on teaming vehicles than fighter aircraft with around twice as much allocated to teaming air vehicles. Early replacement of the Rhino's may no longer be a priority and in fact the two seater Rhinos might be a better match for teaming air vehicles.

Also noticed no mention of additional P-8As and plans for additional KC-10s have also been scrapped.

There was a mention that the government will review the balance between MQ-4C and the P-8A Poseidon which suggests to me that we might see additional Tritons preferred to the P-8A.

KC-10?? Didn't know that the RAAF were operating KC-10.

 

[DDG38]

KC-10?? Didn't know that the RAAF were operating KC-10.

They don't, it's the KC30 (grey A330), probably just a typo.

 

[ngatimozart]

They don't, it's the KC30 (grey A330), probably just a typo.

Ah I thought so but knowing you West Islanders one just can't be to sure

 

[hauritz]

KC-10?? Didn't know that the RAAF were operating KC-10.

Oops ... Senior moment.

 

[vonnoobie]

The figure of 2% of GDP has been more of a nominal figure for a while now, even if you had a closer look at the 2016 DWP figures, those figures quoted were not necessarily directly related to GDP, realistically they were hard dollar figures.

If Defence spending had been strictly tied to GDP, we would have more than likely seen a dip in Defence spending, due to the corresponding dip in GDP because of the impact of CV.

Personally I think it's a good idea to 'de link' Defence spending from GDP and instead provide hard dollar figures that can be relied on a bit more.

Cheers,

Oh I fully understand that there will be times it will dip above or below the 2% range depending on economic movement but when take present figures and increasing them by the pre CV GDP growth rates the figure for the 2029-30 year is still 40% more then it would have been giving a future budget to tune of 2.8%. that being said a large chunk of that will be for the surge in acquisitions and it will likely lower post 2030. Interesting but dangerous times, fingers crossed these assets will never be needed for the worst case the CoA is preparing for.

 

[Arclighy]

A strong speech from Scott Morrison l thought. There is a lot to take in from the two documents. This point on p 36 of the 2020 Force Structure Plan caught my eye -
"Acquire a range of advanced maritime guided weapons, including
long-range anti-ship and land strike weapons, and extended range
surface-to-air missiles ...". I can only assume the Long range land strike is something like Tomahawk? But l could be wrong. That is a very big step up in capability for Navy.

 

[ngatimozart]

A strong speech from Scott Morrison l thought. There is a lot to take in from the two documents. This point on p 36 of the 2020 Force Structure Plan caught my eye -
"Acquire a range of advanced maritime guided weapons, including
long-range anti-ship and land strike weapons, and extended range
surface-to-air missiles ...". I can only assume the Long range land strike is something like Tomahawk? But l could be wrong. That is a very big step up in capability for Navy.

Tomahawk? I don't know because it's quite expensive and it would change the force structure in the area. I think that Indonesia would have concerns about it and maybe one other ASEAN nation. The PRC certainly will be somewhat shrill in its objections, but the Chicoms should remember that Australian defence policy and capability decisions are made in Canberra by freely elected Australian governments, not imposed by a dictatorial authoritarian regime in Beijing which has no business interfering in domestic Australian affairs.

 

[vonnoobie]

I imagine there will be plenty of backroom talks between Australia and some of the more regionally important nations excluding china so as to not overshoot or send the wrong message. That said has also been talks of late between the QUAD and ASEAN re China. Could very well become Australia becomes a sort of backup for them if needed.

 

[OldTex]

Tomahawk? I don't know because it's quite expensive and it would change the force structure in the area. I think that Indonesia would have concerns about it and maybe one other ASEAN nation. The PRC certainly will be somewhat shrill in its objections, but the Chicoms should remember that Australian defence policy and capability decisions are made in Canberra by freely elected Australian governments, not imposed by a dictatorial authoritarian regime in Beijing which has no business interfering in domestic Australian affairs.

Another possibility is that it might be a ship launched version of the Joint Strike Missile. Australia has been involved with Norway in funding the development of this system derived from the Naval Strike Missile. There is a lot of interest from western countries that need a replacement for missiles like the Harpoon & Exocet while adding the land strike dimension.

 

[Bob53]

And heres an opinion by our local CCP Political Officer.

No Cookies | Herald Sun

No Cookies

www.heraldsun.com.au

 

[kiwi in exile]

Another possibility is that it might be a ship launched version of the Joint Strike Missile. Australia has been involved with Norway in funding the development of this system derived from the Naval Strike Missile. There is a lot of interest from western countries that need a replacement for missiles like the Harpoon & Exocet while adding the land strike dimension.

probably air launched and later ship launched AGM 158C LRASM. Australia allready operates JASSM. Media are reporting 200 missiles for $800m or $990m depending on where you look.

US approves multimillion-dollar Australian LRASM acquisition request

The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency has approved the US$990 million ($1.47 billion) acquisition of the Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles for the Royal Australian Air Force.

www.defenceconnect.com.au

 

[oldsig127]

And heres an opinion by our local CCP Political Officer.

No Cookies | Herald Sun

No Cookies

www.heraldsun.com.au

Hardly a surprise, other than the paper having the gall to publish a piece by an ex politician who was given the boot for being on China's payroll.

oldsig