gazzzwp
Member
Russia stalling for time. A well known and recognised tactic. In the mean time innocent people are suffering terrible deaths.
Will US military action end there do we think or will the US continue to degrade Syrian air power?
War Against ISIS
- Thread starter spikehades
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Will US military action end there do we think or will the US continue to degrade Syrian air power?
Boatteacher
Active Member
This is entirely speculation, but I would think the US has made its point.
It should be enough to stop a repeat of chemical weapons use; maybe even raises the possibility the next missile might be through the palace window.
But if the warning is ignored, then the retaliation might escalate.
I suppose Syria might adopt a more defensive posture - in effect be ready for a repeat. Do they have the ability to stop them?
What we don't want is for Russia to provide them a better defensive network.
gazzzwp
Member
Interesting we saw no attempt by Russia to stop the cruise missiles if indeed they were capable of doing so.
Turkey calling for a complete no fly zone. Also Russia who are about to make a formal verbal repsonse have according to Al-Jazeera suspended the co-operation agreement with the US over the use of Syrian air space.
That's why this doesn't make an sense at all, I don't actually think Assad is a stupid man, Putin certainly isn't and this was a very stupid move if he was actually involved in it, it's more like a Gulf of Tonkin incident IMO.
from Cenciotti
"the TLAMs flew across the MEZ (Missile Engagement Zone) of the S-400 missile battery the Russians deployed to Latakia to protect the Russian air contingent deployed there in 2015."
With Pantsyr, S-300 and S-400 in theatre apparently not all that successful in stopping this attack, what better air defence do you imagine could be brought in?
In addition this was apparently a straight forward cruise missile attack. Do you not think an increased defensive posture would not be met by an increased attacking capability, should the US decide to engage again?
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
The Russians were warned ahead of time so for what ever reason they did not use their SAM assets AFAIK. This would seem to indicate an unofficial admission that Assad crossed the line and deserved a hit. Again, did the Russians know about the attack or not? Either answers are not good as they imply complicity or incompetence.
It appears that Russia chose not to engage US cruise missiles. Actually it's starting to look like Assad shat the bed on this one. Russia stated that their support for Assad is NOT unconditional.
Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov: Russian support for Bashar Assad has limits - CBS News
Destroyed Syrian jets at Shayrat.
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http://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/469554.html
Russian MoD had a UAV watching the cruise missile impacts. This certainly suggests they had enough time to react to it.
МО Ð*Ф показало результаты ракетного удара СШРпо авиабазе Шайрат (ВИДЕО Ñ Ð‘Ð›Ð): diana_mihailova
A piece of a Tomahawk fell in Tartus.
Рговорили, что по Шайрату: оÑтатки крылатой ракеты RGM-109E Tomahawk неподалеку от ТартуÑа: diana_mihailova
Russia claims only 23 of the 59 missiles hit targets, the rest fell at unknown locations. Apparently some of the aircraft at Shayrat weren't destroyed.
23 долетевшие до цели из 59 выпущенных ракет Tomahawk уничтожили на авиабазе Шайрат 6 МиГ-23 : diana_mihailova
Syria says they have 6 killed as a result of the strike. It appears that they used the US warning to evacuate the base.
http://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/469772.html
EDIT: Russian MoD statement along with more footage of the base.
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3345403.html
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3345092.html
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I agree, Assad is in the doghouse with the Russians. Possibly some senior Russian officers in Syria are in the same house for allowing this attack to occur.
gazzzwp
Member
The propaganda machine has already kicked in with Russia reporting that only half of the missiles fell on the facility and the overall operational efficiency was low.
Do we believe Russia after they claimed that the Syrian Air Force had bombed a rebel chemical weapons stockpile?
Some images do show a number of planes still in tact. Looking at the nuclear proof hangars it's a wonder that any were destroyed. Presumably the Tomahawks that destroyed the planes must have entered these hangars at an acute angle? That sounds pretty impressive stuff.
Sorry what? Nuclear-proof hangars? What are you talking about?
gazzzwp
Member
Your images showed massive robust hangars some containing in tact planes some destroyed.
Presumably for a direct hit on such a hanger to be effective would need a super bunker buster type weapon?
they're HAS, not nuke proof.
the russians will be beefing up Syrian ADS to mitigate this happening again
they had 30 mins warning, so some aircraft were able to be shifted before the strike
gazzzwp
Member
I'm not convinced that they could ever prevent it. That is a huge volley of cruise missiles that took to the air last night and it would take a similar massive counter barrage to cope with the attack. The Russian ADS cannot be everywhere protecting assets all over Syria surely?
Not everywhere, no. But they can shoot down some cruise missiles in some areas. I can't help but wonder what the saturation point is for, say, Khmeimeem airbase against a surprise Tomahawk strike.
In the meantime, the UN Security Council is in session, and there are unconfirmed reports of Russian and Syrian strikes against the New Syrian Army in the south, a US proxy. Additionally some Syrian aircraft have returned to Shayrat to continue operations against (allegedly) ISIS.
ЗаÑедание СБ ООРпо вопроÑу Шайрата - Colonel Cassad
A map of the impact areas. Note that the runway is essentially undamaged. This must have been intentional. Also, apparently 9 civilians were killed by Tomahawk missiles that fell short of the target.
Схема попаданий американÑких крылÐÑ‚Ñ‹Ñ… ракет по целÑм на авиабазе Шайрат: diana_mihailova
Blue Jay
Member
A hypothesis regarding why Assad may have used chemical weapons, since everyone is baffled at the stupidity of the strikes:
"The purpose of this past attack, apparently, was to shock and awe and demoralize the civilian population and the regime to the point where they give up. It does not have great military value, but it is literally a mass-terror weapon, designed to basically overwhelm and demoralize the opposition."
Why Did Syria Still Have Chemical Weapons?
"...such extreme tactics aimed to demonstrate the government’s impunity and to demoralize its foes."
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/...bashar-al-assad-russia-sarin-attack.html?_r=0
The above seems reasonable. It may be the case that Assad grew impatient and simply made a bad judgement call.
"The purpose of this past attack, apparently, was to shock and awe and demoralize the civilian population and the regime to the point where they give up. It does not have great military value, but it is literally a mass-terror weapon, designed to basically overwhelm and demoralize the opposition."
Why Did Syria Still Have Chemical Weapons?
"...such extreme tactics aimed to demonstrate the government’s impunity and to demoralize its foes."
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/...bashar-al-assad-russia-sarin-attack.html?_r=0
The above seems reasonable. It may be the case that Assad grew impatient and simply made a bad judgement call.
Boatteacher
Active Member
To what Feanor replied I would simply add, my statement was one of what is not desirable.
An escalating tussle between US offensive weapons and Russian defenses is the last thing Syria needs. Yet we don't want Syria put in the position that it feels immune from further US retaliation and thus able to continue chemical weapons attacks.
I wonder if it could have be someone other than Assad that ordered the Sarin strike.
It is a civil war and thus emotions run at boiling point.
Maybe someone's family or tribe was severely abused by other side or tribe (that has been happening for years but maybe something particular happened that caused a meltdown) and Sarin loaded and used without Assad knowing.
Chemical weapons will be tightly controlled by regime, but in a choatic civil war such control will presumably be less than perfect.
Of course, this will also be Assad's excuse even if he ordered its use.
It is a civil war and thus emotions run at boiling point.
Maybe someone's family or tribe was severely abused by other side or tribe (that has been happening for years but maybe something particular happened that caused a meltdown) and Sarin loaded and used without Assad knowing.
Chemical weapons will be tightly controlled by regime, but in a choatic civil war such control will presumably be less than perfect.
Of course, this will also be Assad's excuse even if he ordered its use.
supercomrade
Member
Everyone over here freaking out when FoxNews broke this:
Russian warship steams toward US destroyers that launched Syria strikes | Fox News
"Russian warship steams toward US destroyers that launched Syria strikes"
I personally don't think it means anything outside of strategic movement, but it amazes me how over here in USA a small piece of news like that gets everyone screaming "WWIII"
Russian warship steams toward US destroyers that launched Syria strikes | Fox News
"Russian warship steams toward US destroyers that launched Syria strikes"
I personally don't think it means anything outside of strategic movement, but it amazes me how over here in USA a small piece of news like that gets everyone screaming "WWIII"
Why would we? Russia at first denied any such strike, conventional or otherwise even occurred at all. Now they are are suggesting, well yes such a strike did happen but it was conventional only... Their credibility is absolutely zilch in such instances.
Lie first and reveal the truth in small doses over time to mitigate the impact and then deny they ever lied at all, seems to be the Russian way with such things.