War Against ISIS

[Feanor]

On the other hand the idea that the rebels have chemical weapon stock piles is just not credible.

You're mistaken. ISIS has employed chemical weapons against the Kurds, there is nothing incredible about al-Nusra having chemical weapons too. There have also been reported instances of the SAA suffering from chemical weapons attacks. Irregular forces in this conflict have demonstrated the ability to acquire and employ chemical weapons. Also, there's this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-found-in-mosul-in-isis-lab-say-iraqi-forces

Remember a lot of the rebel groups are just a smaller, weaker, version of ISIS.

 

[John Fedup]

Exactly to my point that Assad is deemed the least worst choice. It's beyond stupid if Assad is responsible given his present winning situation.

 

[gazzzwp]

Exactly to my point that Assad is deemed the least worst choice. It's beyond stupid if Assad is responsible given his present winning situation.

Just a thought. I normally balk at the the thought of conspiracy theories but this all seems to have occurred against the backdrop of Trump's failing presidency. Is there any way the US could have created a 'false flag' situation to allow Trump an opportunity to step into the game and win some badly needed Kudos?

 

[John Fedup]

I don't think so given who is secretary of defence. The real question is what to do now? A major commitment of ground troops probably won't sit well with the US public.

 

[Feanor]

I don't think so given who is secretary of defence. The real question is what to do now? A major commitment of ground troops probably won't sit well with the US public.

A major commitment of ground troops to what? Fighting Assad?

 

[supercomrade]

A major commitment of ground troops to what? Fighting Assad?

Well all the updates I been reading in this thread pretty much have Assad and Russia re-taking Syria slowly but surely. You don't think ISIS or the FSA could have staged this to either

1)Hit the pause button for ISIS to get more recruits in
2)Try to somehow someway get USA/NATO/EU involved


Staging something like this would be easy I think. Just get some intel on where the next Syrian led airstrikes will take place and set up the chemical bomb via remote activate and set it off right when the bombs from the Syrian plane drop.

 

[John Fedup]

Hard to say what Trump wants to do. Clearly, he is convinced Assad is responsible and his actions "crossed many lines" what ever that means. Bombing air fields might be an option but that just helps ISIS in the long run. Assad, like, Saddam, is a war criminal and a brutal dictator. Looking at all the blood and treasure wasted on Iraq and all the misery that followed leaves one wondering whether getting rid of Saddam was a very good move. There is just as much doubt as to what would follow Assad. The question of what to do is why this horror show has gone on for 7 years now.

 

[Boatteacher]

The latest analysis comes out fairly strongly is saying that bombing a chemical weapons factory cannot produce a release of Sarin. It is a binary weapon and simply doesn't work that way.

That pretty strongly puts the blame back on the Assad forces; although I agree it seems like a very silly move.

 

[Sakharov]

Any sort of sustained US operation (heavy bombing or ground troops) in Syria would seemingly involve coordinating with Turkey, Jordan, and other regional allies. I can't see the Trump administration pulling that off, even with Mattis at the helm. I think Trump will either wait for the news cycle to change so people forget or he will have the military conduct a few token bombing runs.

I think this could also explain why the Syrians would risk using nerve gas. Trump was previously on record against intervention in Syria and he's even made statements like "the US is not innocent". It'd be easy for the Syrians to read those as statements of non-interference. The nerve gas attack lets Assad test whether Trump will respond with anything more than words and will let him see whether regional allies (e.g., Turkey) will cooperate with a US administration that is understaffed, inept, and toxic in the Muslim world.

 

[ADMk2]

I guess Trump has now shown what he wants to do...

 

[Feanor]

The US apparently just fired cruise missiles at Assad's forces, hitting positions across Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÑØÀ íàíåñëè ðàêåòíûé óäàð ïî âîåííîìó àýðîäðîìó â Ñèðèè. ÕÐÎÍÈÊÀ

EDIT: More sources.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/...responses-to-syrian-chemical-attack.html?_r=0
https://www.ft.com/content/25cdb1f8-1ae1-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/us-m...50-than-missiles-aimed-at-syria-nbc-news.html

 

[Feanor]

The latest analysis comes out fairly strongly is saying that bombing a chemical weapons factory cannot produce a release of Sarin. It is a binary weapon and simply doesn't work that way.

That pretty strongly puts the blame back on the Assad forces; although I agree it seems like a very silly move.

Do we know for certain sarin was the gas in question? The last statement from the white helmets is that sarin and chlorine were both used in the attack.

"Белые каÑки": удар был нанеÑен ракетами, Ñодержащими зарин и хлор, которые нейтрализуют друг друга: diana_mihailova

 

[Boatteacher]

Do we know for certain sarin was the gas in question? The last statement from the white helmets is that sarin and chlorine were both used in the attack.

Yes, that is what I read too.

I suppose that the real takeaway is that if sarin was involved, it can't have been from bombing a chemical factory (unless you bombed a chlorine weapons plant with sarin!).

And I now can't put my hands on the article, but I thought it was fairly clear some of the injuries were inconsistent with mere chlorine.

Now there are reports of cruise missiles being launched at Syrian airbases held responsible for the attack. I had assumed (I hope now incorrectly) that Russian and Syrian forces would be so intermingled at airbases as to expose the risk of Russian casualties.

 

[Feanor]

Yes, that is what I read too.

I suppose that the real takeaway is that if sarin was involved, it can't have been from bombing a chemical factory (unless you bombed a chlorine weapons plant with sarin!).

And I now can't put my hands on the article, but I thought it was fairly clear some of the injuries were inconsistent with mere chlorine.

Now there are reports of cruise missiles being launched at Syrian airbases held responsible for the attack. I had assumed (I hope now incorrectly) that Russian and Syrian forces would be so intermingled at airbases as to expose the risk of Russian casualties.

If Russia was warned the strikes were coming, it's possible they moved their personnel out.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Yes, that is what I read too.

I suppose that the real takeaway is that if sarin was involved, it can't have been from bombing a chemical factory (unless you bombed a chlorine weapons plant with sarin!).

And I now can't put my hands on the article, but I thought it was fairly clear some of the injuries were inconsistent with mere chlorine.

Now there are reports of cruise missiles being launched at Syrian airbases held responsible for the attack. I had assumed (I hope now incorrectly) that Russian and Syrian forces would be so intermingled at airbases as to expose the risk of Russian casualties.

I posted the cruise missile response on the US thread an hr ago

 

[supercomrade]

Cmon Trump............

Part of me feels like this is what he pretty much had to do because a day ago he went in and insulted Obama for being too soft.

But seriously WTF. Shouldn't US and Russia as well as some neutral powers send in investigators to determine who did it??? You can't just take the most obvious suspect and hit the fire button(I guess you can if you're Trump)

On another note, can someone who has knowledge in this explain to me how US can just launch cruise missiles into another country? Isn't there rules against this?

I mean Russia is there blowing things up because they actually got permission from the president. But can Russia just launch cruise missiles at Saudi Arabia if they felt like they did something? How is this justified? I am confused on all levels. This doesn't feel like real life, it feels like a real time strategy video game...

 

[ADMk2]

Cmon Trump............

Part of me feels like this is what he pretty much had to do because a day ago he went in and insulted Obama for being too soft.

But seriously WTF. Shouldn't US and Russia as well as some neutral powers send in investigators to determine who did it??? You can't just take the most obvious suspect and hit the fire button(I guess you can if you're Trump)

On another note, can someone who has knowledge in this explain to me how US can just launch cruise missiles into another country? Isn't there rules against this?

I mean Russia is there blowing things up because they actually got permission from the president. But can Russia just launch cruise missiles at Saudi Arabia if they felt like they did something? How is this justified? I am confused on all levels. This doesn't feel like real life, it feels like a real time strategy video game...

That easy is it? Just send in investigators into the middle of a warzone? Maybe rope off a crime scene?

Sounds easy...

 

[Waylander]

Especially as Russia and China vetoed a resolution which asked exactly for that...

 

[John Fedup]

I guess the justification for attacking Assad is he violated an agreement made in 2013 to give up WMD and never use them again. There are media reports he continued to use chlorine gas after the agreement but this week is the first use of sarin. The census is that he is responsible and it is just such a dumb move unless he assumed the US would never respond. If he did it, can't see the Russians being unaware but if they were they must be pissed. After all they brokered the deal to get rid of the stuff so they look either stupid or just as guilty.

 

[Strannik]

Especially as Russia and China vetoed a resolution which asked exactly for that...

Not true, and I strongly suspect, you know it.

Russia vetoed the resolution, which put blame squarely on Assad with not attempt at all to scrutinise such idiotic blame.

"Russia and China veto UN resolution to impose sanctions on Syria"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...to-un-resolution-to-impose-sanctions-on-syria

Quote from Russian draft resolution on the chemical attack in Syria:

"Russia submitted to the UN Security Council its own draft resolution on conducting an investigation into the chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province, a representative of the Russian Mission to the United Nations said on Wednesday.

We suggested our own short draft resolution aimed at conducting an actual investigation and not placing the blame before establishing facts," the representative stated..."