Ukranian Crisis

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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

The People's Mayor of Slavyansk, Ponomarev, confirms that the OSCE mission has been detained by the rebels in Slavyansk, and considers them prisoners of war. He says they were enemy spies sent there, not neutral observers.

tutuskania:

A rebel checkpoint near Soledar was attacked by unknown men, but the attack was fought off.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - 15 человек атаковали блокпоÑÑ‚ в районе украинÑкого города Соледар

An interview with Strelkov, the guy whose radio conversation was claimed by the Ukrainian government to be a GRU agent. He discusses the personnel of his militia (mostly Ukrainians, many with experience fighting in Yugoslavia or Iraq, some that served in Russian armed forces). He mentions they disarmed several 25th Airmobile Regiment detachments, and some Border Guard troops, getting over 150 automatic weapons, a few grenade launchers, and some vehicles. He mentions all the soldiers are conscripts and are unwilling to fight, which is why they don't want to kill them. He mentions that they bring in their conscripts using them as a shield, they set up a checkpoint, and then SBU and MVD units as well as Right Sector activists use the checkpoint to operate from. The militia is hesitant to fire on them. He mentions they have the ability to shoot down helicopters, and intentionally chose one that didn't have anyone in it except the crew.

He mentions that they have the OSCE observers and they will negotiate their release but only with representatives of the Russian Federation. He also mentions that they're being lied about in Ukrainian media, and that reality is that 80% of the locals are in favor of joining Russia. He mentions that they haven't received any help from Russia despite needing it. Finally he mentions that they're working with the local civilian government, even though they have a lot of issues with them.

Strelkov is also now the head of the Donetsk People's Militia.

Colonel Cassad -
Военный дневник Ð˜Ð³Ð¾Ñ€Ñ ÐšÐ¾Ñ€Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ‡ÐµÐ½ÐºÐ¾ - Силы Ñамообороны Донецкой реÑпублики возглавил Игорь Стрелков

Meanwhile the Russian MoD released a statement saying that their satellite imagery shows that the Ukrainians have a 15 000 troop concentration around Slavyansk that includes tanks, and heavy artillery. They fear that Ukraine will erase the city from the face of the earth.

u_96:

Some videos of Ukrainian troops have surfaced, where the Ukrainians have BMP-3s. I knew that they had inherited some from the USSR, but I was under the impression that it was no more then a handful. These shots don't show more then a handful which leaves two options. Either the Ukrainians took what few they had and tossed them into a unit, or they have quite a few more, and possibly a btln or brigade is armed with them. In all the videos it appears to be the same unit. Similar looking Msta-S, and MT-LBs.

At 0:47 [nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hV_EwReyGbI"]ÑÑ‚. Фёдоровка (Ðовобогдановка) 18.04.14.mp4 - YouTube[/nomedia]
https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7426/14014977152_c9f1b6fddb_o.jpg
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVmSFfkbvxI"]Ðовобогдановка - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBaJM8i7NTU#t=114"]УкраинÑкие СÐУ и БТР-и едут на аÑродромы МелитопольÑкого рай-но, ЗапорожÑкой обл. - YouTube[/nomedia]

According to this source, Ukraine has either 4 or 6 BMP-3s, and at least 3 were sighted as part of an artillery regiment.

Вооруженные Ñилы Украины решили применить БМП-3, которые ранее были в запаÑе

Also the Ukrainian MoD is talking about resuming a conscript based military, despite earlier attempts to transition to a contract structure, under Yanukovich. Seems like lunacy after the conscripts showed their total unwillingness to fight, and in some cases rebelled in their garrisons.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ЗаÑÐ²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐž Украины

In Crimea while the water is already turned off, electricity may be next, as the Crimean government and many private parties have not been paying their bills.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êðûìó ìîãóò îòêëþ÷èòü ýëåêòðè÷åñòâî çà íåóïëàòó: äîëãè ïðåâûñèëè 70 ìëí äîëëàðîâ

EDIT: This is worth showing. This summs up the feelings in the east fairly well. It's BBC in english, so do watch.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QGFZev_h7g#t=428"]Why do some Ukrainians want to be part of Russia? BBC News - YouTube[/nomedia]
 
Last edited:

gazzzwp

Member
I thought people might be interested in this short CNN clip:

Putin's fighters, missiles, warships - CNN.com Video

If there are any Hawkish types out there that feel it's time to teach Russia a lesson then please watch this clip.

Any thoughts anyone?

The figures that caught me the most were 4366 planes and 63 submarines!

That's a tall order for NATO to deal with surely!
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
4,366? The number of viable - air-to-air/multi-role - combat aircraft in the Russian Air Force is somewhere around 600-650. At most. And that includes 25% positioned against China.

NATO currently has around twice that number stationed around Europe. Not that anyone's really doing that tally, considering there won't be any actual military confrontation in the foreseeable future.

And let's not even joke about submarines...
 
4,366? The number of viable - air-to-air/multi-role - combat aircraft in the Russian Air Force is somewhere around 600-650. At most. And that includes 25% positioned against China.

NATO currently has around twice that number stationed around Europe. Not that anyone's really doing that tally, considering there won't be any actual military confrontation in the foreseeable future.

And let's not even joke about submarines...
Ok, 3 times more than the total number of RAF fighters , not bad.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
4,366? The number of viable - air-to-air/multi-role - combat aircraft in the Russian Air Force is somewhere around 600-650. At most. And that includes 25% positioned against China.
To get that number you'd probably have to include the ones being used as monuments around the country, as well as those converted into children's playgrounds. :D
 

My2Cents

Active Member
I could also argue that a 9% response rate in the US yields a sample size (about 11 million?) way larger than the one obtained in Ukraine with a 69% response rate (with 1200 respondents), thus mucking up the results from the Gallup study...
Use the same methodology for both calculations, or do you think the total population of the Ukraine is only 1,800 people?

Public opinion polls only sample a small part of the population. An opinion poll in the US will use the same size group of people as in the Ukraine for a similar accuracy of results. This is statistics, not politics. All a larger poll will do is reduce the degree of uncertainty in the results.

The only time the entire US population is surveyed is in the national census, held every 10 years. No other poll ever samples more than a couple thousand.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
To get that number you'd probably have to include the ones being used as monuments around the country, as well as those converted into children's playgrounds. :D
which number do you mean?

also, 10 percent of which figure?
Thanks for any info, the numbers are getting confusing here, as is what the terms specifically mean. I would imagine aircraft combat readiness numbers is not a big factor in this at all either way, but it is still of interest.
 

nkvd

Member
The above report by the department of state points to a handful of appalling and tragic incidents and attempts to paint them as systematic abuses committed by the Russian state against oppressed Crimeans and most Americans i assume will buy this.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
The above report by the department of state points to a handful of appalling and tragic incidents and attempts to paint them as systematic abuses committed by the Russian state against oppressed Crimeans
I think it is quite accurately drawing attention to these crimes and saying that Crimeans who don't support Russian policy may experience further problems. After all, dissent is not tolerated in Russia to the extent it is in Ukraine. There are also fewer freedoms - I doubt gay Crimeans will be welcomed now the area has been annexed by Russia.
 

wittmanace

Active Member
I think it is quite accurately drawing attention to these crimes and saying that Crimeans who don't support Russian policy may experience further problems. After all, dissent is not tolerated in Russia to the extent it is in Ukraine. There are also fewer freedoms - I doubt gay Crimeans will be welcomed now the area has been annexed by Russia.
Corect me if I am mistaken, but doesn't Yatsenyuk, for example, have the same position on homosexuality as Putin, for religious reasons?
 
Wait awaits Eastern Ukraine if Russia annexes that territory as well?

Crimean Residents To Face Russian-Style RepressionCrimean Residents To Face Russian-Style Repression

Crimean Residents To Face Russian-Style Repression
Stop to lié, my parents And brother in law live in Crimea , in Simferopol And Yalta, I talk with them every day, I Know Crimea very well and the people are very happy to be russian, they have stability, the salaries And retires incomes have grown At least 40 % , please finish anti russian propaganda sponsored by USA.
The only place where the anarchy grows every day is Ukraine, people they are lossing their jobs, the government is totally chaotic, Ukraine is a failed state, please get informed before to write this.
 
I think it is quite accurately drawing attention to these crimes and saying that Crimeans who don't support Russian policy may experience further problems. After all, dissent is not tolerated in Russia to the extent it is in Ukraine. There are also fewer freedoms - I doubt gay Crimeans will be welcomed now the area has been annexed by Russia.
Go right now with some russian flag or simbol, even speaking russian in western Ukraine And you will experience the "Ukrainian freedom" , I don,t understand how is posible to say this having no idea of the real situación except from USA And western media.
Still have not seeen vídeos of people with guns in the street hunting for russian speakers un Lviv for example? You have not seen the ultra nationalist people of righ sector in action ?, really is incredible how the people can change the reality.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Corect me if I am mistaken, but doesn't Yatsenyuk, for example, have the same position on homosexuality as Putin, for religious reasons?
He is against gay marriage, but I don't think he has accused gays of all being paedophiles as Putin did with his infamous "leave the children alone" comment. There are many people in the UK for example who object to gay marriage but would not agree with gays being persecuted. More importantly Yatsenyuk is not standing for election next month, so his views on gay marriage (for example) are not an issue in Ukraine's future.

the salaries And retires incomes have grown At least 40 %
If you're telling the truth (and you haven't been mislead) the only way Russia could have done this in such a short space of time would be to spend billions of dollars of its own money to subsidise Crimea. That is not sustainable in the long run.

Also, even if a majority of Crimeans are happy with the decision, that does not justify persecution of people that aren't happy about the new system.

Go right now with some russian flag or simbol, even speaking russian in western Ukraine
Why would I waive a foreign flag in a country with the express intent of annoying locals? I don't waive the American flag on the streets of London or the German flag on the streets of Paris.
 
He is against gay marriage, but I don't think he has accused gays of all being paedophiles as Putin did with his infamous "leave the children alone" comment. There are many people in the UK for example who object to gay marriage but would not agree with gays being persecuted. More importantly Yatsenyuk is not standing for election next month, so his views on gay marriage (for example) are not an issue in Ukraine's future.



If you're telling the truth (and you haven't been mislead) the only way Russia could have done this in such a short space of time would be to spend billions of dollars of its own money to subsidise Crimea. That is not sustainable in the long run.

Also, even if a majority of Crimeans are happy with the decision, that does not justify persecution of people that aren't happy about the new system.



Why would I waive a foreign flag in a country with the express intent of annoying locals? I don't waive the American flag on the streets of London or the German flag on the streets of Paris.
Did you know how much Ukraine invested in Crimea from the fallen of the USSR ?, i will tell you , practically nothing, you have only to see the incredibly poor state of the main highway in Crimea from Yalta to Simferopol, it, s really terrible, if you cross the border in Kerch and go to Russia in the region of Krasnodar, highways have been improved very much in the last 10 years and now you can see more and more freewys.
The water system in Crimea is the same that in the USSR period, of course crimeans they know that everything will not be the paradise but they feel much more safe under the russian protection and much more important than this the majority of crimeans always consider themselves as ethnic russians, for them it was not a problem to live under the ukrainian flag but everything changed when the coup imposed government ultra nationalist emerged from maidan arrives with the anti russian xenophobia and they ask protection for Russia, now Crimea is Russia like the inhabitants they want
After the the fall of the USSR nobody asked to them if they wanted to be russians or ukrainians so now Crimea is where always have to be in Russia.
Nobody is repressing to nobody in Crimea even Crimean tatars they have recognized their language in the new constitution of russian Crimea and they will be represented in the regional parliament so nobody is repressing, this is not true, other question is that some people doesn.t feel comfortable under russian rule because they are ethnic ukrainians but they will stay living in Crimea without problem, nobody menaces to them at all.
 
For those interested to see the real Ukraine right now here are videos of "ukrainian freedom" of the coup imposed government, this is the "freedom" right now in Ukraine, a country full of anarchy and crime against the russian minority, this is the reality not the anti russian propaganda, I hope that after to see them you understand why eastern Ukraine wants to be independent .

1. Украина. За убийÑтво людей под КорÑунем Ярош ответит! 2014 - YouTube
2. РимарÑька. Харків. 14 Ð±ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ·Ð½Ñ 2014. 22:00 - YouTube
3. Правый Ñектор в Харькове ÑтрелÑет в людей! - YouTube
4. Ð¨ÐºÐ¾Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ð°Ñ Ð»Ð¸Ð½ÐµÐ¹ÐºÐ° в школе Львовщины. МоÑкалÑку на гиллÑку. - YouTube
5. Правый Сектор в Днепре напугал девушку до иÑтерики и Ñлез - YouTube
6. КиевÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ñ…ÑƒÐ½Ñ‚Ð° Ñчитает ДонбаÑÑ Ð»ÑŽÐ´ÑŒÐ¼Ð¸ второго Ñорта - Кужель, Бондарева Репина - YouTube
7. Ðародные депутаты ВО Свобода избивают директора киевÑкого Первого национального - YouTube
8. Юрій Хорт зачитує ТетÑні Ðнтонець Ñ€Ñ–ÑˆÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ "Ðародного трибуналу" - YouTube
9. Правый Ñектор моÑкалей на ножи - YouTube
10. YouTube
11. 14.3.2013
12. УчаÑтники майдана: "МоÑкалей на ножи" - YouTube
13. Приезд Фарион в ОдеÑÑу МоÑкалей - на ножи! - YouTube
14. МоÑкалив на ножи - YouTube
15. UKRAINE & RUSSIA '
16. 10.07.13
17. Бей моÑÐºÐ°Ð»Ñ Ð² киевÑком метро - YouTube
18. моÑкалів на ножі на ножі - YouTube
19. 27.01.2014
20. Захват правоÑлавного храма МуÑоривцы МуÑоровцы 03/01/2010 - YouTube
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22. Ñ…Ð»Ð¾Ð¿Ñ†Ñ Ñƒ Рівному облили зеленкою - YouTube
23. ÐÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð¶Ð¸Ð·Ð½ÑŒ Украины - 2 - YouTube
24. РОССИЯÐЕ! Ðикогда мы не будем братьÑми! - YouTube
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26. Тенюх обвинил украинÑких военных в плохом воÑпитании и призвал выполнÑÑ‚ÑŒ приÑÑгу - YouTube
27. СходнÑк новой влаÑти.ÐовинÑкий поÑлал на Ñ… й Порошенко. - YouTube
28. Кременчуг Майданутые делÑÑ‚ деньги - YouTube
29. Майданутые броÑают молотки в авто Ñ Ñ€Ð¾ÑÑийÑким флагом - YouTube
30. Львов - даже детей юнижают за руÑÑкие имена. ÐовоÑти Украины Ukraine ОнЛайн - YouTube
31. Жизнь Ð·Ð²ÐµÑ€ÑŒÑ Ð¸Ð· Правого Ñектора во Львове [20/03/2014] - YouTube
32. Избиение киевлÑн активиÑтами 'Правого Ñектора' на Крещатике. (ÐŸÐ¾Ð»Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð’ÐµÑ€ÑиÑ) - YouTube
33. Обращение батальона информационной поддержки Майдана к роÑÑиÑнам. - YouTube
34. Полонений боєць Ñпецпідрозділу "Беркут" втратив око - YouTube
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36. Украина, Киев, Майдан, ÐÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ñ "влаÑÑ‚ÑŒ" Шариковых - YouTube
37. ÐÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ñ Ð¶Ð¸Ð·Ð½ÑŒ Украины - YouTube
38. Ярош призывает к войне официально - YouTube
39. Дмитро Ярош, лидер "Правого Сектора" о врагах и Ñудьбе Украины - YouTube
40. ПРÐВЫЙ СЕКТОР ÐРСЕССИИ РЕГИОÐÐЛЫ ОТКÐЗÐЛИСЬ ПЕТЬ ГИМРУКРÐИÐЫ. - YouTube
41. http://vК.com/video-9516317_167796035
42. Ðападение на ветеранов во Львове - YouTube
43. Завод Nemiroff в Западной Украине захватили вооруженные бандеровцы - YouTube
44. Ðвтомайдан Ñ– Лукойл - YouTube
45. ФашиÑÑ‚Ñ‹ майдана изб² [19/03/2014] - YouTube
46. Музичко розмовлÑÑ” з прокурором. Cаша Белый. - YouTube
47. Майдановцы (правый Ñектор?) уÑтроили беÑпорÑдок на дороге в Киеве - YouTube
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49. Факельное шеÑтвие Свободы в Киеве 01.01.2014. Поджог гоÑтиницы Премьер ПалаÑ. - YouTube
50. Факельное шеÑтвие Свободы в Киеве 01.01.2014. - YouTube
51. Ð£Ð»ÑŒÑ‚Ñ€Ð°Ñ "Шахтера" избили пророÑÑийÑкого активиÑта - Ñвоего оппонента по интернет-форумам 18.03.2014 - YouTube
52. Телефонный разговор между Шуфричем и Тимошенко. 18 марта 2014 года в 23:17 по украинÑкому времени - YouTube
53. БеÑпредел в УльÑновке - YouTube
54. 18.03.14 -
55. Ð’ Ровно заÑтрелен ÐлекÑандр Музычко по прозвищу Сашко Билый - YouTube
56. 25.03.14
57. 26.03.14
58. Евромайдан. Майданутые: "Кто не Ñкачет - тот моÑкаль". - YouTube
59. Ðаказание за ношение ГеоргиевÑкой ленты - YouTube
60. Бандеровцы Ñодомиты охотÑÑ‚ÑÑ Ð·Ð° школьниками - YouTube
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62. Ето не показали по телевизору, Грузовик раздавил колону Беркута - YouTube
63. Видео обÑтрела Ð°Ð²Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»Ñ Ð½Ð° дороге в Донецкой облаÑти. (ВОДИТЕЛЬ «ЯВІР-2000») - YouTube
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65. Правый Сектор ÑброÑили Ð¿Ð°Ñ€Ð½Ñ Ñ Ð¼Ð¾Ñта. ГероичеÑкий поÑтупок - YouTube
66. Забитый полк - YouTube
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Wait awaits Eastern Ukraine if Russia annexes that territory as well?

Crimean Residents To Face Russian-Style RepressionCrimean Residents To Face Russian-Style Repression

Crimean Residents To Face Russian-Style Repression
I have to wonder about those claims. For example Russian press ran an article that said "Crimean child beaten by police for speaking Ukrainian". Upon close examination it turned out that two drunk teenagers got into an argument with the police, and were beaten. With no real relation to their language.

Now I don't think there is any dispute that police violence is a problem but current Crimean police is the same as it always was, the same people, the same structures, the same training and operational culture. So this is not something that can be laid on Russia's doorstep. Not that police violence isn't a problem in Russia. It is, and quite a widespread one. I've heard that it's gone down in recent years, but I'm not sure that's true, and even if it is, it's still a major problem. However it's not a political one.

The other thing to consider is that the local militias may or may not have disbanded and are far likelier to be responsible for this kind of activity. What it comes down to is that we need better info. As one old Russian proverb said "The Tsar is far away, and God is high in the sky". Meaning ultimate authorities are far removed, giving the local ones free reign.

Russia is not a democratic country and their non-democratic legislation will certainly have an impact on Crimea, but before we start blaming them for violence, we need more information.

which number do you mean?

also, 10 percent of which figure?
Thanks for any info, the numbers are getting confusing here, as is what the terms specifically mean. I would imagine aircraft combat readiness numbers is not a big factor in this at all either way, but it is still of interest.
The silly claim that the VVS flies over 4000 aircraft.

I think it is quite accurately drawing attention to these crimes and saying that Crimeans who don't support Russian policy may experience further problems. After all, dissent is not tolerated in Russia to the extent it is in Ukraine. There are also fewer freedoms - I doubt gay Crimeans will be welcomed now the area has been annexed by Russia.
It's not so much as a question of tolerance as ability vs inability to act against it. But generally you're correct. These crimes need more attention not less.

If you're telling the truth (and you haven't been mislead) the only way Russia could have done this in such a short space of time would be to spend billions of dollars of its own money to subsidise Crimea. That is not sustainable in the long run.
Yes it is. Every single region in Russia, except St. Peters and Moscow, is a major recipient of federal funding. Essentially what happens is that state incomes from resource export, federal taxes, and state corporations, is heavily redistributed throughout the locales. From what I understand Crimea already received 6 billion USD from Russia in funds (not loans, just money). That's probably how they've done this. Retirees will experience a huge rise in their pensions, this is true. Russian pensioners are not rich or prosperous, but they're not in outright poverty the way Ukrainian ones are.

Also, even if a majority of Crimeans are happy with the decision, that does not justify persecution of people that aren't happy about the new system.
Given the populist inclinations of the government in Russia they would be perfectly willing to toss a few opposition to the mob, if it keep the people happy.

Why would I waive a foreign flag in a country with the express intent of annoying locals? I don't waive the American flag on the streets of London or the German flag on the streets of Paris.
If you wave an American flag in London you won't be beaten. If wave a Russian one in L'vov... ;)
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Updates.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íèêàêîé ïðèîñòàíîâêè ñïåöîïåðàöèè íà âîñòîêå Óêðàèíû èç-çà ó÷åíèé àðìèè ÐÔ íåò, çàâåðèë ãëàâà ÌÂÄ

There were reports of an OSCE Mission detained by the rebels, but it turns out to be untrue. Ukrainian military officers were riding in a bus marked OSCE.

EDIT: Actually there seems to be some confusion on the subject. The OSCE mission may or may not be detained. I'll post here when I get a clear picture.

*...
The OSCE mission was definitely detained. Members of it have been shown to the press, & talked on camera. The report of Ukrainian officers pretending to be OSCE was either sloppy journalism, or misinformation.
 
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