Ukranian Crisis

[Musashi_kenshin]

Is crimea now officially part of Russia?

Depends what you mean by "officially". It was illegally annexed after a vote that had no constitutional standing. It is effectively part of Russia, but not legally.

On the other hand, I imagine a lot of pro-Russians are worried about giving their views in public, let they be attacked.

Who's going to attack them - the pro-Russian gunmen occupying these places?

After all, they still live in a country that is currently running an "anti-separatist" military operation, against them.

Against the relatively small number of gunmen. Civilians have been advised to stay at home, where it's safer. At the moment the only people being rounded up and/or executed in eastern Ukraine are people speaking in favour of a united Ukraine.

Ukraine is not Somalia, it is a European country, and computers, mobile phones, etc ... are as ubiquitous, as they are in most other parts of Europe. 33 out of a hundred citizens have access to Internet

But you're immediately excluding 67% of the population, how does that get you an accurate survey result?

 

[stojo]

Who's going to attack them - the pro-Russian gunmen occupying these places?

First af all, there are large areas with substantial presence of ethnic Russians, in the East of Ukraine, which are still under the control of the Ukrainian army. Second, Russians live all over Ukraine, not just in couple of towns currently held by Russian insurgents.

So, to answer your question - who is going to attack them? Maybe you should ask this guy, an editor of Ukrainian TV station, accused for not being "patriotic" enough.

youtube.com/watch?v=8ihlldKy7jU

By the way, these thugs are members of the Parliament of Ukraine, protected by parliamentary immunity from persecution.

Also, in prospect of "anti separatist" military operation of Ukrainian forces, no one can tell right now, actually who will be in control of the Russian-held cities in the East in coming days, let a lone months.

These are all factors, which, may incline pro-Russians to refrain from giving an answer.

At the moment the only people being rounded up and/or executed in eastern Ukraine are people speaking in favour of a united Ukraine.

No one is being "rounded up and executed" in Ukraine so far, East or West. There where some skirmishes between militants and the army, and that is it.

But you're immediately excluding 67% of the population, how does that get you an accurate survey result?

As I explained earlier, you can not just presuppose that all those who had refused to answer, would, if willing, have given an answer according to your personal liking. Both pro-Russians, and pro-Ukrainians, in large parts of the country, have very good reason to keep their mouth shut...

 

[Twain]

Uhm, just want to point out that while Gallup might be reputable, the nature of the research survey is off. Gallup could reliably and sincerely conduct research that was never unbiased in the first place. Sorry if this is going OT...but I must point out some stuff.

Just some things I noted:

1. 65% response rate is frankly terrible. This is especially considering that 1200 face-to-face interviews were conducted. You should be aiming for 80% in order for the results to be valid. The nightmarish part of such findings is that you don't know why people rejected doing your survey - and unknown unknown. You are left with doing calculated guesses at best.

Response rates don't matter as long as your sample (respondents) are statistically random and representative of the population.Response rates in the US are frequently much lower and they still manage to do quite a good job predicting election outcomes


2. Face-to-face survey - validity is affected as the person conducting can unintentionally (or intentionally) influence the responses through things like body language, or verbal cues.

lots of things can induce bias to a poll, even on telephone interviews. Things like order bias, tone of voice, sample bias. Gallup has been at this for decades, they know how to account for induced bias. That is certainly no reason to discount the results.

3. Demographics - 69% (nearly two-thirds) of respondents were Ukrainian speaking. I would assume they are naturally predisposed towards supporting Ukraine. I can't imagine the pro-Russian militias in the East conducting operations while juggling multiple languages.

69% seems about right considering the makeup of Ukranians, (about 40% regard russian as their native langauge) it is supposed to be a representative sample

4. There isn't an example of the actual survey form being used. This is vital as what we are seeing are results from the translation of the questions, complex questions that try to address multiple concepts.

If you click throught the links, the original questions are shown, the methodology is explained in detail too

5. The initial questions are complex, not straightforward ones. Let's look at the first one: "Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian speaking citizens?" Words like 'army', 'protecting', are statements that are emotionally charged, thus skewing the results. It also assumes Russia has already decided to send the army in.

That's very typical of surveys, "if this happens, then what is your opinion" Do you have any idea how many surveys in the US are asking "If russia invades Ukraine should hte US interven militarily?" That's part of gauging public opinion. As to the words army and protection being used, all wording in questions have emotional context and army and protection are MUCH less emotionally volatile that a lot of words they could have used. I've written surveys before and those are pretty neutral words in this context. There is no such thing as a completely emotionally neutral survey but gallup has enough experience and expertise to account for this. I've seen bad/loaded survey questions, this isn't one of them.

Don't get me wrong, I think Gallup did their best to administer the survey. However, I have issues with the way the survey questions were conceptualised.

There are also other surveys out there that came out earlier and this survey is entirely consistent with previous ones.

Edit: one last thing about the response rate, 69% is actually a phenomenal response rate. Pew is getting under a 10% response rate anymore, and PEW polls worldwide. I knew response rates were falling dramatically worldwide but I didn't realize they had fallen this low. I'd say gallup did a great job getting a 69% response rate.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/

 

[Twain]

Sorry but "locally published poll" sounds extremely suspicious to me. Who is the polling company that carried it out? What is their track record? What are their credentials? How did they carry it out? Etc.

I'm not going to trust a poll run by a mystery organisation.

Online (self selected) polls are notoriously unreliable. The sample is not random, representative, or statistically valid.

 

[Twain]

It is really a question of just how local these militias are: My guess is this one of the reasons why the polls show such low support for the separatists.

" Everyone you see here in the militia are my friends, my brothers, my allies in the battle with fascism. We have volunteers who came to us from Moldova, from Russia, from Belarus, from Kazakhstan, from the North Caucasus," he said, as stated in a NY Times article.


Ukraine's Slavyansk mayor debunks NYT's false Russian militant photos with real proof - News - Politics - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts,

I guess this is why they attacked an opera house instead of the intended target, city hall. Local militias would know the difference.

 

[wittmanace]

It is really a question of just how local these militias are: My guess is this one of the reasons why the polls show such low support for the separatists.

" Everyone you see here in the militia are my friends, my brothers, my allies in the battle with fascism. We have volunteers who came to us from Moldova, from Russia, from Belarus, from Kazakhstan, from the North Caucasus," he said, as stated in a NY Times article.


Ukraine's Slavyansk mayor debunks NYT's false Russian militant photos with real proof - News - Politics - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts,

I guess this is why they attacked an opera house instead of the intended target, city hall. Local militias would know the difference.

the mayor in the pic in that article looks like Roman Abramovitch. About as conclusive evidence of russians in Ukraine as the released pictures, I gather...

It does seem very odd that such flimsy and dodgy "evidence" was used and released. I looked into it, and some of the troops in the series actually appear in the twitter feed of ABC news' Marquardt on april 13th it seems. He labels them as Ukranian soldiers deserting and setting up roadblocks on the Sloviansk outskirts. The pictures released show them in the city centre guarding buildings.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

No one is being "rounded up and executed" in Ukraine so far, East or West.

Ukraine: murdered council member Vladimir Rybak buried | World news | theguardian.com

A staunch opponent of the pro-Russian building takeovers in Horlivka and nearby cities, Rybak was abducted on Thursday night after he attempted to pull down the flag of the separatist Donestk Republic which pro-Russian activists had flown from the local administration building. Masked men were later seen leading him away in a car, and his body was found with signs of torture in a river outside of Slavyansk, which has become the stronghold of armed pro-Russian militia in the region.

 

[Feanor]

I'm quite curious to know more about the Russian troop movements. So far only one mechanised brigade? I'm really curious about the composition of the Russian forces that are just situated outside Donbass.

Don't know. But detachments from the 76th VDV Division, 2nd Motor-Rifles, 4th Tank Brigades, are at the North-Eastern border of Ukraine. An unidentified motor-rifles btln with attachments was sighted. I don't know what else is there, but you can be sure SpN units are active, as well as elements from other ground units, and helo air units. A-50s have been spotted active on airfields near Ukraine, where they're usually not. Su-27s, S-300PMs, and Pantsyr-S1s are in Crimea.

 

[Comrade69]

Have not paid attention to the news since Crimea became a part of Russia because I have been busy.

Now I'm seeing it seems it got a lot worse can someone catch me up on what the hell is going on now??

 

[Feanor]

Have not paid attention to the news since Crimea became a part of Russia because I have been busy.

Now I'm seeing it seems it got a lot worse can someone catch me up on what the hell is going on now??

Go through the last ~10 pages or so and read my update posts. They're fairly exhaustive. Basically a pro-Russian protest wave spiraled out of control in the East, when the protesters captured SBU buildings and opened the arsenals arming themselves. From there on they formed Narodnoe Opolchenie (People's Militias) and have proceeded to expand their area of influence across their regions (Donbass and Lugansk). In Kharkov and Nikolaev the protesters seized government buildings but not SBU buildings, were unarmed, and were violently suppressed by pro-government force-wielders. The government attempted to use the military against the militia, but failed because the military refused to fight. Now they're trying again this time with SBU and MVD SpetzNaz units.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

Photos of Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militias in Slavyansk.

u_96:

A Ukrainian military helicopter (Mi-8) exploded in Kramatorsk, on the airfield. Some commentators think it may have been the militia, using a captured ATGM. The Ukrainian government originally claimed it was destroyed by a militia sniper... The militia claims they did it with an RPG. I personally suspect technical malfunction reasons. They lost an Su-24 a month ago under very simple circumstances for this reason.

An An-2 airplane was also destroyed and three people were killed according to eyewitnesses.

u_96:
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Уничтожен вертолет на аÑродроме КраматорÑка. ОбновлÑÐµÐ¼Ð°Ñ Ð·Ð°Ð¿Ð¸ÑÑŒ

There are some photos from the destruction at the airfield.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - Силы Ñамообороны СлавÑнÑка задержали 40 диверÑантов хунты из 50-ти.

In Donetsk two journalists of Life News were kidnapped by masked men. They were on their way to a famous anti-Maydan activist who is being searched for by Ukrainian authorities.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Äîíåöêå íåèçâåñòíûå ëþäè â ìàñêàõ ïîõèòèëè æóðíàëèñòîâ LifeNews

Ukrainian MVD says they will continue the counter-terrorist operation in the east, Russian actions notwithstanding.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íèêàêîé ïðèîñòàíîâêè ñïåöîïåðàöèè íà âîñòîêå Óêðàèíû èç-çà ó÷åíèé àðìèè ÐÔ íåò, çàâåðèë ãëàâà ÌÂÄ

There were reports of an OSCE Mission detained by the rebels, but it turns out to be untrue. Ukrainian military officers were riding in a bus marked OSCE.

EDIT: Actually there seems to be some confusion on the subject. The OSCE mission may or may not be detained. I'll post here when I get a clear picture.

*

Ukrainian UN representative said that Ukraine has sighted Russian troops and vehicles with "Peacekeeping Mission" written on the side.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ñîáðàëà âîçëå óêðàèíñêîé ãðàíèöû "î÷åíü îïàñíîå îðóæèå" ñ ìàðêèðîâêîé "Ìèðîòâîð÷åñêàÿ ìèññèÿ"

Also Russian troop movements in Rostov have caused two traffic accidents. I mentioned the haphazard nature of the convoys earlier.

Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла - К Ñлению развертывание "миротворчеÑких Ñил" в Ð*оÑтовÑкой облаÑти не обошлоÑÑŒ без ЧП...

The international border between Crimea and Ukraine is now functioning, according to Russian officials.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìåæäó Êðûìîì è Óêðàèíîé çàðàáîòàëà ãîñóäàðñòâåííàÿ ãðàíèöà

 

[Comrade69]

Go through the last ~10 pages or so and read my update posts. They're fairly exhaustive. Basically a pro-Russian protest wave spiraled out of control in the East, when the protesters captured SBU buildings and opened the arsenals arming themselves. From there on they formed Narodnoe Opolchenie (People's Militias) and have proceeded to expand their area of influence across their regions (Donbass and Lugansk). In Kharkov and Nikolaev the protesters seized government buildings but not SBU buildings, were unarmed, and were violently suppressed by pro-government force-wielders. The government attempted to use the military against the militia, but failed because the military refused to fight. Now they're trying again this time with SBU and MVD SpetzNaz units.

Thanks for the summary
I read the past 10 pages and wow

What I still do not understand is why is Russia getting all fingers pointed at them and even some accusing them of "trying to start WWIII"?

 

[Twain]

the mayor in the pic in that article looks like Roman Abramovitch. About as conclusive evidence of russians in Ukraine as the released pictures, I gather...

It does seem very odd that such flimsy and dodgy "evidence" was used and released. I looked into it, and some of the troops in the series actually appear in the twitter feed of ABC news' Marquardt on april 13th it seems. He labels them as Ukranian soldiers deserting and setting up roadblocks on the Sloviansk outskirts. The pictures released show them in the city centre guarding buildings.

It seems to vary each time they talk as to where these people came from. That article from the voice of russia is a direct quote admitting there are non ukranians fighting as "local militias". IIRC in another interview he claimed he had 2500 troops from outside the Ukraine under his command. Really makes you question just how indigineous this whole mess actually is, especially when you consider the poll results that show such poor support for the pro russia element.

 

[bdique]

There are also other surveys out there that came out earlier and this survey is entirely consistent with previous ones.

Edit: one last thing about the response rate, 69% is actually a phenomenal response rate. Pew is getting under a 10% response rate anymore, and PEW polls worldwide. I knew response rates were falling dramatically worldwide but I didn't realize they had fallen this low. I'd say gallup did a great job getting a 69% response rate.

Assessing the Representativeness of Public Opinion Surveys | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press

I could also argue that a 9% response rate in the US yields a sample size (about 11 million?) way larger than the one obtained in Ukraine with a 69% response rate (with 1200 respondents), thus mucking up the results from the Gallup study...

...But I digress, a lot.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Some interesting photos. Note the one where the rebels are refurbishing old rifles.

http://i.imgur.com/HmFeT4w.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/YC1YdAT.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/p2BkJB7.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/LVriFcO.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/uRHfXsi.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/2taCLZh.jpg
https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2940/14008513601_2a3aaac95a_h.jpg
https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7409/14012158284_2b5d20f2ad_h.jpg

The Pentagon says Russian planes repeatedly violated Ukrainian airspace in the last 24 hours.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïåíòàãîí: ðîññèéñêèå ñàìîëåòû íåîäíîêðàòíî íàðóøàëè ãðàíèöó Óêðàèíû çà ïîñëåäíèå ñóòêè

The G-7 intends new sanctions against Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Áîëüøàÿ ñåìåðêà" íå áóäåò ìåäëèòü ñ ñàíêöèÿìè ïðîòèâ Ðîññèè è íàöåëåíà íà äèïëîìàòè÷åñêîå ðåøåíèå êðèçèñà â Óêðàèíå

Russia has pulled General Lobov out of retirement. Lobov is an old-school Soviet commander, who specialized in high-tempo conventional mechanized warfare. He was present at a high level MoD meeting, right before a new set of exercises in Military Districts South and Center.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Война

A fiber-optic cable has been laid down across the bottom of the Kerch straight, connecting Crimea to Russia.

http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/49106/

An interesting article, featuring the bearded gentlemen that you should know well if you have been clicking on my links.

http://time.com/74405/exclusive-pro-russian-separatists-eastern-ukraine/

 

[MikeSv]

Is there any information on what type of russian aircraft that breach ukrainian airspace? presumerbly recon flights, but just curious.

 

[Feanor]

Is there any information on what type of russian aircraft that breach ukrainian airspace? presumerbly recon flights, but just curious.

I'm pretty sure there is information, I just don't have it. You could try asking the Pentagon.

Actually I don't even know where they would source their info, since it's not like there's US radars in Ukraine... There was some info earlier that the Ukrainian government was concerned over Russian UAV flights near their borders. So maybe one of those wandered in.

 

[kato]

Actually I don't even know where they would source their info, since it's not like there's US radars in Ukraine...

NATO has been running AWACS at the Romanian eastern borders since March. Considering the slant range of AWACS, all they're gonna see that way are Russian flights over Crimea though. Which the Pentagon would count as Ukrainian airspace. And since there is no closer localization of where the supposed airspace violations occured...

 

[stojo]

NATO has been running AWACS at the Romanian eastern borders since March. Considering the slant range of AWACS, all they're gonna see that way are Russian flights over Crimea though. Which the Pentagon would count as Ukrainian airspace. And since there is no closer localization of where the supposed airspace violations occured...

Americans, obviously, have access to the information collected by the Romanian and Hungarian radars, since those countries are members of NATO.
By now, they probably have access to Ukrainian radars as well....

 

[Feanor]

NATO has been running AWACS at the Romanian eastern borders since March. Considering the slant range of AWACS, all they're gonna see that way are Russian flights over Crimea though. Which the Pentagon would count as Ukrainian airspace. And since there is no closer localization of where the supposed airspace violations occured...

That certainly sounds likely. Though it also throws a different light on the Pentagon's statement. Thanks for clarifying.

By now, they probably have access to Ukrainian radars as well....

Maybe. And if they do have access, they'd only have access to the working ones...

Remember in Crimea the Ukrainians had 3 S-300P regiments, and 1-2 Buk regiments, yet Russian Il-76s flew in, landed, unloaded troops, and left.